Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献_第8页

The effect of perceived risk of false diagnosis on preferences for COVID-19 testing: Evidence from the United States 错误诊断的感知风险对COVID-19检测偏好的影响:来自美国的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100455

Tomás Rossetti , Ricardo A. Daziano

{"title":"The effect of perceived risk of false diagnosis on preferences for COVID-19 testing: Evidence from the United States","authors":"Tomás Rossetti , Ricardo A. Daziano","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100455","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100455","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>At-home antigen (rapid) tests have been successfully deployed in many countries to quickly detect COVID-19 cases. Whereas antigen tests have multiple advantages, they tend to have higher rates of false diagnosis than polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Since individuals tend to process risk non-linearly, an ad-hoc method is required to adequately assess preferences for test features. In this paper, we propose a methodology based on random utility maximization and elements of prospect theory that produces willingness-to-pay estimates for different test attributes while accounting for differences between objective and perceived probabilities of false positive or negative results. We use this methodology to analyze stated preference data for COVID-19 tests in the United States. Results show that, on average, low probabilities were underestimated and mid-range probabilities were overestimated. We also found that false positive results were more burdensome than false negative outcomes, which shows that there is a degree of willful ignorance (Ehrich and Irwin, 2005) in our sample. Finally, our findings indicate that respondents tended to prefer tests with faster turn-around times and less invasive collection methods. In a case study, we show how our results can be used to assess pricing for a given test.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100455"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755534523000568/pdfft?md5=08b6d96a806fe919fbd9728851deac47&pid=1-s2.0-S1755534523000568-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138413503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures 实验设计中的决策规则假设对偏好恢复的影响：气候变化适应措施的应用

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100465

Sander van Cranenburgh , Jürgen Meyerhoff , Katrin Rehdanz , Andrea Wunsch

{"title":"On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures","authors":"Sander van Cranenburgh , Jürgen Meyerhoff , Katrin Rehdanz , Andrea Wunsch","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100465"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755534523000660/pdfft?md5=c5b2fc344e8fb5e866f202fbccdfca02&pid=1-s2.0-S1755534523000660-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139093283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ordinal-ResLogit: Interpretable deep residual neural networks for ordered choices 有序选择的可解释深度残差神经网络

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100454

Kimia Kamal, Bilal Farooq

{"title":"Ordinal-ResLogit: Interpretable deep residual neural networks for ordered choices","authors":"Kimia Kamal, Bilal Farooq","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study presents an Ordinal version of Residual Logit (Ordinal-ResLogit) model to investigate the ordinal responses. We integrate the standard ResLogit model into COnsistent RAnk Logits (CORAL) framework, classified as a binary classification algorithm, to develop a fully interpretable deep learning-based ordinal regression model. As the formulation of the Ordinal-ResLogit model enjoys the Residual Neural Networks concept, our proposed model addresses the main constraint of machine learning algorithms, known as black-box. Moreover, the Ordinal-ResLogit model, as a binary classification framework for ordinal data, guarantees consistency among binary classifiers. We showed that the resulting formulation is able to capture underlying unobserved heterogeneity from the data as well as being an interpretable deep learning-based model. Formulations for market share, substitution patterns, and elasticities are derived. We compare the performance of the Ordinal-ResLogit model with an Ordered Logit Model using a stated preference (SP) dataset on pedestrian wait time and a revealed preference (RP) dataset on travel distance. Our results show that Ordinal-ResLogit outperforms the traditional ordinal regression model. Furthermore, the results obtained from the Ordinal-ResLogit RP model show that travel attributes such as driving and transit cost have significant effects on choosing the location of non-mandatory trips. In terms of the Ordinal-ResLogit SP model, our results highlight that the road-related variables and traffic condition are contributing factors in the prediction of pedestrian waiting time such that the mixed traffic condition significantly increases the probability of choosing longer waiting times.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100454"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755534523000556/pdfft?md5=2de4669857508ad1b34265073b2c4a88&pid=1-s2.0-S1755534523000556-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138480282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Attitudes and Latent Class Choice Models using Machine Learning 使用机器学习的态度和潜在阶级选择模型

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100452

Lorena Torres Lahoz, Francisco Camara Pereira, Georges Sfeir, Ioanna Arkoudi, Mayara Moraes Monteiro, Carlos Lima Azevedo

{"title":"Attitudes and Latent Class Choice Models using Machine Learning","authors":"Lorena Torres Lahoz, Francisco Camara Pereira, Georges Sfeir, Ioanna Arkoudi, Mayara Moraes Monteiro, Carlos Lima Azevedo","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100452","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Latent Class Choice Models (LCCM) are extensions of discrete choice models (DCMs) that capture unobserved heterogeneity in the choice process by segmenting the population based on the assumption of preference similarities. We present a method of efficiently incorporating attitudinal indicators in the specification of LCCM, by introducing Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to formulate latent variables constructs. This formulation overcomes structural equations in its capability of exploring the relationship between the attitudinal indicators and the decision choice, given the Machine Learning (ML) flexibility and power in capturing unobserved and complex behavioural features, such as attitudes and beliefs. All of this while still maintaining the consistency of the theoretical assumptions presented in the Generalized Random Utility model and the interpretability of the estimated parameters. We test our proposed framework for estimating a Car-Sharing (CS) service subscription choice with stated preference data from Copenhagen, Denmark. The results show that our proposed approach provides a complete and realistic segmentation, which helps design better policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100452"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50176912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On-demand transit user preference analysis using hybrid choice models 基于混合选择模型的按需公交用户偏好分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100451

Nael Alsaleh , Bilal Farooq , Yixue Zhang , Steven Farber

{"title":"On-demand transit user preference analysis using hybrid choice models","authors":"Nael Alsaleh , Bilal Farooq , Yixue Zhang , Steven Farber","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>In light of the increasing interest to transform the fixed-route public transit (FRT) services into on-demand transit (ODT) services, there exists a strong need for a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of this shift on the users. Such an analysis can help municipalities and service providers to design and operate more convenient, attractive, and sustainable transit solutions. To understand the user preferences, we developed three hybrid choice models: integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV), latent class (LC), and latent class integrated choice and latent variable (LC-ICLV) models. We used these models to analyze the public transit user's preferences in Belleville, Ontario, Canada. Hybrid choice models were estimated using a rich dataset that combined the actual level of service attributes obtained from Belleville's ODT service and self-reported usage behaviour obtained from a revealed preference survey of the ODT users. The latent class models divided the users into two groups with different travel behaviour and preferences. The results showed that the captive user's preference for ODT service was significantly affected by the number of unassigned trips, in-vehicle time, and main travel mode before the ODT service started. On the other hand, the non-captive user's service preference was significantly affected by the Time Sensitivity and the </span>Online Service Satisfaction latent variables, as well as the performance of the ODT service and trip purpose. This study attaches importance to improving the reliability and performance of the ODT services and outlines directions for reducing operational costs by updating the required fleet size and assigning more vehicles for work-related trips.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100451"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50176913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Evaluating the gap choice decisions of pedestrians in conflict situations in mass religious gatherings and controlled experimental setup – A pilot study 在大规模宗教集会和对照实验设置中，评估冲突情况下行人的间隙选择决策——一项试点研究

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100450

Karthika P S , Ashish Verma

{"title":"Evaluating the gap choice decisions of pedestrians in conflict situations in mass religious gatherings and controlled experimental setup – A pilot study","authors":"Karthika P S , Ashish Verma","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100450","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Previous studies on modelling the microscopic behaviour of pedestrians have focused on conflict resolution among pedestrians in pedestrian-pedestrian interactions. Many of these models propose alternate mechanisms to avoid conflicts by introducing repulsive forces between pedestrians or a set of predefined rules stating the precedence of movements to sidestep obstacles and other pedestrians. However, the possibility of formulating the decision-making mechanism pedestrians use to overcome conflicts as a gap-seeking behaviour has not been explored. In this study, resolving conflicts between opposing pedestrians is modelled as gap choice decisions made by individuals. Pedestrians looking for gaps or spaces in a crowd to facilitate their movement form the basis for such an analysis. The study compares pedestrians' gap acceptance behaviour across two scenarios: pedestrian movement in a field setup (Kumbh Mela) and a controlled experiment. Multiple gap choice decisions of individuals are modelled to understand the effect of individual-level heterogeneity on gap choices. Apart from the gap duration, spacing, position of gap, linear density, age, and presence of luggage significantly influenced the gap choices. Model validation is done using appropriate methods for both field and experimental data. The bootstrap method of internal validation and holdout validation is used to assess the performance of the estimated model on field data and experimental data, respectively. It is seen that the models have reasonable predictive and discriminative abilities. The analysis results also indicate that pedestrians tend to force gaps to facilitate movement in their natural state. Consequently, controlled experiments might have limitations in reproducing or motivating the participants to behave like a crowd.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100450"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50176917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Outside good utility and substitution patterns in direct utility models 直接效用模型中的外部良好效用和替代模式

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100447

Chul Kim , Adam N. Smith , Jaehwan Kim , Greg M. Allenby

引用次数: 0

Open system model of choice and response time 开放系统模型的选择和响应时间

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100453

Gunnar P. Epping , Peter D. Kvam , Timothy J. Pleskac , Jerome R. Busemeyer

{"title":"Open system model of choice and response time","authors":"Gunnar P. Epping , Peter D. Kvam , Timothy J. Pleskac , Jerome R. Busemeyer","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sequential sampling models have provided accurate accounts of people’s choice, response time, and preference strength in value-based decision-making tasks. Conventionally, these models are developed as Markov-type models (such as random walks or diffusion models) following the Kolmogorov axioms. Quantum probability theory has been proposed as an alternative framework upon which to develop models of cognition, including quantum random walk models. When modeling people’s behavior during decision-making tasks, previous work has demonstrated that both the Markov and quantum models have their respective strengths. Recently, the open system model, which is a hybrid version of the Markov and quantum models, has been shown to provide a more accurate account of preference strength compared to the Markov and quantum models in isolation. In this work, we extend the open system model to make predictions on pairwise choice and response time. We report a new experiment on preferential choice between gift cards, and we compare the fits of the open system model to the pure Markov and pure quantum random walk models using AIC, BIC, and <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>χ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></math></span> tests. Although the pure Markov model was favored for most participants, a substantial number required the more complex open system model.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100453"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"92142394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Best, worst, and best&worst choice probabilities for logit and reverse logit models logit和反向logit模型的最佳、最差、最佳和最差选择概率

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100449

André de Palma , Karim Kilani

引用次数: 0

Sample size selection for discrete choice experiments using design features 利用设计特征进行离散选择实验的样本量选择

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100436

Samson Yaekob Assele , Michel Meulders , Martina Vandebroek

{"title":"Sample size selection for discrete choice experiments using design features","authors":"Samson Yaekob Assele , Michel Meulders , Martina Vandebroek","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In discrete choice experiment (DCE) studies, selecting the appropriate sample size remains a challenge. The question of the required sample size for a DCE is addressed in the literature in two distinct approaches: a rule-of-thumb approach and an approach based on the statistical error of the parameter of interest. The former is less accurate and does not depend on the desired power and significance level, whereas the latter requires knowing the complete design which may not be known at the planning stage. This paper proposes a new rule of thumb as well as a new regression-based method that requires knowing certain design characteristics rather than the complete design and takes into account the power and significance level. We compare the sample size estimated using the proposed methods with the true required sample size based on the statistical error of the parameter of interest and the approximations given by the existing rules of thumb. The results show that both the new rule of thumb and the regression-based approach improve the magnitude and proportion of underestimation compared to the most commonly used rule of thumb of Orme. Though the proposed approaches perform in general similarly to Tang’s rule which improves Orme’s rule, they seem to do better for large settings in terms of the number of choice sets and the number of alternatives per choice set in reducing underestimation. Moreover, we have demonstrated the possibility to adapt the regression-based approaches to take into account other scenarios and choice set complexity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100436"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50176915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0