Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献

An Experience-Based Choice Model (EBCM): Formulation, identification, behavioural insights and well-being assessment 基于经验的选择模型（EBCM）：制定，识别，行为洞察和福祉评估

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100552

Bastian Henriquez-Jara , C. Angelo Guevara

{"title":"An Experience-Based Choice Model (EBCM): Formulation, identification, behavioural insights and well-being assessment","authors":"Bastian Henriquez-Jara , C. Angelo Guevara","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Experience-Based Choice Model (EBCM) accounts for the underlying learning process within choices, where the main learning unit is the instant utility: a representation of the hedonic momentary feelings. It merges Kahneman’s (Kahneman et al., 1997) notions of experienced utility with the Integrated Choice and Latent Variables (ICLV) framework, drawing on the current knowledge about the use of physiological signals to measure psychological states. EBCM allows us to model choices as a function of the learnt descriptive information of attributes and the hedonic experiences from past choices and to obtain a measure of the experience which can be used to analyse Subjective Well-Being (SWB). In this article, we first implement the model as a Markovian learning process in which the individual uses the remembered utility to update the decision utility at a certain learning rate while aggregating the instant utilities using an Instance-Based Learning (IBL) approach. We discuss specification and identification issues with Monte Carlo simulations. Besides, we use numerical experiments to show how this framework allows us to capture challenging behavioural phenomena such as the duality of habitual and goal-directed behaviour, the hot stove effect, the status quo bias, and the recency effect. Then, we discuss how this formulation contributes to the analysis of SWB. EBCM can help to assess SWB, particularly in situations where traditional assumptions of consumer rationality may not hold and when consumers are captive. Finally, new lines of research are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 100552"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850539","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cost vector effects in forced-choice discrete choice experiments: Assessing the acceptability of future glyphosate policies 强迫选择离散选择实验中的成本向量效应：评估未来草甘膦政策的可接受性

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100550

Vincent Martinet , Maïa David , Vincent Mermet-Bijon , Romain Crastes Dit Sourd

{"title":"Cost vector effects in forced-choice discrete choice experiments: Assessing the acceptability of future glyphosate policies","authors":"Vincent Martinet , Maïa David , Vincent Mermet-Bijon , Romain Crastes Dit Sourd","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One way to evaluate future policies that significantly deviate from the status quo is through discrete choice experiments (DCEs) with a reference policy featuring a positive cost and no opt-out option. This study examines how the design of the cost vector, particularly the cost assigned to the reference policy, influences DCE outcomes in this context. Focusing on glyphosate phase-out policies in France, we compare a strict ban (used as the reference policy) with taxation alternatives. Using a split-sample design with two groups of 500 individuals, we analyze how variations in the ban’s cost and the associated cost range affect welfare estimates. Our findings reveal that while overall preference rankings remain consistent across samples, willingness-to-pay for some attributes increases when the reference policy’s cost rises. We explore potential drivers of this effect, including the inability to choke off demand for the ban, strategic biases, attribute non-attendance, relative evaluation, and anchoring bias. The results suggest that relative evaluation and anchoring bias are the most likely explanations for the observed differences. These findings provide methodological insights for addressing cost vector effects in DCEs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 100550"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143816900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Constructing Bayesian optimal designs for discrete choice experiments by simulated annealing 用模拟退火构造离散选择实验的贝叶斯最优设计

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100551

Yicheng Mao , Roselinde Kessels , Tom van der Zanden

{"title":"Constructing Bayesian optimal designs for discrete choice experiments by simulated annealing","authors":"Yicheng Mao , Roselinde Kessels , Tom van der Zanden","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) investigate the attributes that influence individuals’ choices when selecting among various options. To enhance the quality of the estimated choice models, researchers opt for Bayesian optimal designs that utilize existing information about the attributes’ preferences. Given the nonlinear nature of choice models, the construction of an appropriate design requires efficient algorithms. Among these, the coordinate-exchange (CE) algorithm is commonly employed for constructing designs based on the MNL model. However, as a hill-climbing method, the CE algorithm tends to quickly converge to local optima, potentially limiting the quality of the resulting designs. We propose the use of a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to construct Bayesian optimal designs. This algorithm accepts both superior and inferior solutions, avoiding premature convergence and allowing a more thorough exploration of potential solutions. Consequently, it ultimately obtains higher-quality choice designs compared to the CE algorithm. Our work represents the first application of an SA algorithm in constructing Bayesian optimal designs for DCEs. Through extensive computational experiments, we demonstrate that the SA designs generally outperform the CE designs in terms of statistical efficiency, especially when the prior preference information is highly uncertain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143768976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the choice landscape: Anchoring and framing effects on search behavior in complex choices 探索选择景观：复杂选择中搜索行为的锚定和框架效应

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100549

Nikolos Gurney , John H. Miller , David V. Pynadath

引用次数: 0

Modelling viewing patterns of serial TV dramas considering live viewing and time shifting 考虑直播和时移的电视剧观看模式建模

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100548

Ryosuke Igari

{"title":"Modelling viewing patterns of serial TV dramas considering live viewing and time shifting","authors":"Ryosuke Igari","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, we focus on the segmentation of viewing behavior for serial TV dramas at the individual level, considering both live and time-shift viewing. In particular, many consumers have recently engaged in time shifting after a program is broadcast, in addition to live viewing. Time-shift viewing is prominent in drama viewing because drama viewing may be less urgent. However, few studies that focus on individual-level viewing choice models have considered time shifting and no studies have utilized segmentation to analyze heterogeneous viewing patterns that consider live viewing and time-shifts. We use a multinomial probit (MNP) model to capture viewing or not viewing and viewing method (live or time shifting). Furthermore, a latent growth curve model and a latent class model are included in the MNP model to represent heterogeneous patterns of viewer retention and dropout as episodes progressed. We analyze six individual dramas and a simultaneous analysis of multiple dramas broadcast in 2019. The results show that segments are affected by popularity and growth curve models, as well as differences in viewing rate trends by episode and segment. The findings provide information that can support marketing research and media strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 100548"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods 基于Shapley值的多项逻辑模型属性重要性分析方法

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538

Patricio Salas , Rodrigo De la Fuente , Sebastian Astroza , Juan Antonio Carrasco

{"title":"Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods","authors":"Patricio Salas , Rodrigo De la Fuente , Sebastian Astroza , Juan Antonio Carrasco","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the use of Shapley values-based methods to determine the importance of attributes in discrete choice models, specifically within a Multinomial Logit (MNL) framework. We extend the Shapley decomposition Shorrocks (2013) method from linear models. Additionally, the SHAP method Lundberg and Lee (2017) idea is applied to assess the impact of attributes on individual-level choice probability predictions. A simulation study demonstrates the effectiveness of these approaches under various experimental conditions, including attributes in several ranges and interaction terms. Finally, an empirical application is conducted using well-known travel mode choice datasets. The simulation results show that Shapley values accurately capture the global importance of attributes on goodness-of-fit. The SHAP method provides transparency in MNL model predictions, clarifying how changes in attribute values influence choice probabilities for each decision-maker. These methods offer a complementary perspective to traditional metrics like elasticities and traditional relative importance analysis Orme(2006). In the empirical application, Shapley decomposition highlights the most relevant attributes, while SHAP values uncover individual-level impacts that might not be apparent through elasticities alone. Global and individual-level analysis offers a more comprehensive understanding of attribute importance. In summary, integrating Shapley values with traditional metrics ensures a robust analysis, aiding practitioners and policymakers in making informed decisions based on broad trends and specific impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100538"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Control Function Approach for Addressing Endogeneity in Transport Models: A Case Study on the London–Amsterdam Route 解决运输模式内生性问题的控制函数方法：以伦敦-阿姆斯特丹路线为例

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537

Thomas E. Guerrero B. , Nicolò Avogadro , Raúl Ramos

{"title":"Control Function Approach for Addressing Endogeneity in Transport Models: A Case Study on the London–Amsterdam Route","authors":"Thomas E. Guerrero B. , Nicolò Avogadro , Raúl Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Endogeneity is a key empirical challenge in transportation modeling, which may lead to inconsistent estimates and biased policy decisions. This paper investigates the sources of endogeneity and focuses on tackling this issue for a discrete choice model analyzing the multimodal London–Amsterdam route, where air transport and high-speed rail (HSR) compete. Contrary to previous literature, we found no evidence of endogeneity in service frequency for the London–Amsterdam market. This could be attributed to market-specific features, such as feeding considerations, slot retention dynamics, and the congestion of the HSR network, which constrains capacity expansion opportunities. Conversely, we observed that fare introduced endogeneity into the model. To address this issue, we applied the control function approach and proposed two novel instruments: the fare for similar markets and the price of power sources. These instruments proved to be effective in correcting for endogeneity by increasing model performance. We also discuss the adverse impact of neglecting endogeneity and estimate price and frequency elasticities, ultimately demonstrating the significance of dealing with endogeneity in ensuring the reliability of results in transportation studies and appropriately informing policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100537"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model 上下文感知贝叶斯混合多项逻辑模型

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536

Mirosława Łukawska, Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Filipe Rodrigues

{"title":"Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model","authors":"Mirosława Łukawska, Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Filipe Rodrigues","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional choice models often entail the assumption that the preference parameters of the decision-maker are constant throughout time and across different choice situations, which may be too strong for certain choice modelling applications. This paper proposes an effective approach to model systematic, context-dependent heterogeneity, thereby introducing the concept of the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model (C-MMNL). In this model, a neural network maps contextual information to interpretable shifts in the preference parameters of each individual in each choice occasion. The proposed model offers several key advantages. First, it supports both continuous and discrete variables, as well as complex non-linear interactions between both types of variables. Secondly, each context specification is considered jointly as a whole by the neural network, rather than each variable being considered independently. Finally, since the neural network parameters are shared across all decision-makers, it can leverage information from other decision-makers to infer the effect of a particular context on a particular decision-maker. Even though the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model allows for flexible interactions between attributes, the increase in computational complexity is minor, compared to the mixed multinomial logit model. We illustrate the concept and interpretation of the proposed model in a simulation study. We furthermore present a real-world case study from the travel behaviour domain — a bicycle route choice model, based on a large-scale, crowdsourced dataset of GPS trajectories including 119,448 trips made by 8555 cyclists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100536"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

New misspecification tests for multinomial logit models 多项式逻辑模型的新错标检验

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100531

Dennis Fok, Richard Paap

引用次数: 0

Location choice of residential housing supply: An application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model 住宅供应地点选择：多元离散-连续极值模型的应用

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100535

Yu Zhang, Eric J. Miller

引用次数: 0