Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献

Recursive logit models for dynamic versus sequential trip chaining 动态与顺序行程链的递归逻辑模型

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100576

Stephen McCarthy, Fatemeh Naqavi, Anders Karlström

{"title":"Recursive logit models for dynamic versus sequential trip chaining","authors":"Stephen McCarthy, Fatemeh Naqavi, Anders Karlström","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100576","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper applies recursive logit (RL) to model activity-trip chaining behaviour. We present a comparison between two approaches to applying the RL model in this context. In the first ‘sequential’ approach, agents form a trip chain by making a sequence of joint choices of activity location (i.e. trip destination) and travel mode, ending the chain by choosing to return home. The second ‘dynamic’ approach adds a time variable. Its agents form a full-day activity/travel schedule by making a sequence of choices either to continue the current activity for a fixed timestep or make a joint choice of new activity location and travel mode. We estimate parameters for both models using data from a Stockholm travel survey and validate model simulations against observed data. The models reproduce patterns of observed behaviour beyond their estimated parameters, including different types of trip chains and the spatial distribution of activities. While the dynamic model is advantageous in its ability to predict agent schedules, reflect time-varying travel conditions and endogenously represent space–time constraints, it does not surpass the simpler sequential model on mutual areas of trip chaining behaviour. We conclude that the RL model is well-suited to model trip chaining behaviour, and that the simpler sequential approach may be appropriate for many modelling purposes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100576"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A special Cholesky-based parameterization for estimation of restricted correlation matrices 一种特殊的基于cholesk的参数化方法，用于限制性相关矩阵的估计

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100580

Kun Huang, Xin Ye, Mengyi Wang

{"title":"A special Cholesky-based parameterization for estimation of restricted correlation matrices","authors":"Kun Huang, Xin Ye, Mengyi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating a valid correlation matrix with structural restrictions presents significant challenges, particularly in ensuring positive definiteness and enforcing zero-correlation constraints. Traditional approaches, such as the Cholesky decomposition, often suffer from numerical instability and convergence failures in these settings. This paper introduces a novel Cholesky-based parameterization that effectively addresses these issues by allowing zero constraints while maintaining positive definiteness and unit diagonal elements. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing spherical parameterization approach, achieving superior convergence rates, enhanced estimation accuracy, and robustness under high-correlation scenarios. An empirical application on non-commuters’ activity participation in Shanghai further validates the practical effectiveness of the proposed method, showcasing its ability to capture complex behavioral relationships while ensuring stable estimation. The results suggest that the proposed parameterization provides a reliable and computationally efficient alternative for correlation matrix estimation in multivariate models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beyond the status quo: Leveraging reference-dependent theory in a neural network for consumer choice analysis 超越现状：利用神经网络中的参考依赖理论进行消费者选择分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100579

Kyungah Kim , Jongsu Lee , Junghun Kim

{"title":"Beyond the status quo: Leveraging reference-dependent theory in a neural network for consumer choice analysis","authors":"Kyungah Kim , Jongsu Lee , Junghun Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100579","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100579","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Setting an appropriate reference point is crucial in reference-dependent choice modeling, as it directly influences the reliability of utility estimates and the interpretation of consumer decision-making. However, many prior studies have relied on generalized or fixed reference points—such as status quo or past experiences—without accounting for individual-level heterogeneity. To address this limitation, this study proposes a reference-dependent artificial neural network (RD-ANN) that integrates the structure of reference-dependent choice models into a neural network framework. RD-ANN is designed to learn individual- and alternative-specific reference points based on consumer and alternative attributes, thereby providing a flexible and data-driven approach to reference point estimation. Empirical validation using smartphone and automobile choice data shows that RD-ANN outperforms benchmark models in various predictive performance metrics including accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score. The model also captures behavioral patterns such as brand loyalty and status quo bias more effectively. In the empirical contexts considered, RD-ANN was found to better reflect consumer heterogeneity and may help provide more accurate estimates of price sensitivity compared to models using a fixed status quo reference point. These findings suggest that the proposed approach offers a promising direction for integrating behavioral theory and machine learning in discrete choice modeling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100579"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Using Lagrange multiplier type tests to detect structural intra-person heterogeneity in composite marginal likelihood estimation in panel data sets 使用拉格朗日乘数型检验检测面板数据集复合边际似然估计中的结构性内部异质性

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100573

Sebastian Büscher, Dietmar Bauer

{"title":"Using Lagrange multiplier type tests to detect structural intra-person heterogeneity in composite marginal likelihood estimation in panel data sets","authors":"Sebastian Büscher, Dietmar Bauer","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100573","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100573","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gradient-based Lagrange multiplier-type tests represent a valuable tool for discriminating between nested models, obviating the necessity to estimate the unrestricted model. This is particularly advantageous when testing for pooling in panel data sets, as it permits the testing of multiple groupings without the necessity of re-estimating the model for each grouping. This makes the process considerably faster and more flexible in comparison to Wald or likelihood ratio type tests.</div><div>In this paper, we demonstrate that the use of pairwise composite marginal likelihood (CML) estimation enables the comparison of gradients between different CML contributions of pairs of observations for individuals. This allows for the testing of pooling over time, as well as the identification of neglected temporal correlation. The CML approach thus offers a degree of flexibility that is not present in the classical likelihood setting.</div><div>Theoretical derivations of the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics under the null hypothesis are provided for the special case of multinomial probit models, thereby forming the basis for the statistical interpretation of the test statistic.</div><div>Moreover, a comprehensive simulation study was conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the test statistics. In particular, the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and the rejection rates of the tests under various types and degrees of violations of the null hypothesis were evaluated using synthetic panel data sets of varying sizes. This empirical evaluation provides insights into the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed tests in detecting intra-personal heterogeneity and into causes of misspecifications in the deterministic utility structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100573"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel algorithm for drawing nested extreme value random variables 一种绘制嵌套极值随机变量的新算法

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100575

Wilbur Townsend

引用次数: 0

Can an ‘informed’ general population sample be comparable to a patient sample? A case study of preferences for chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy “知情”的一般人群样本是否可以与患者样本相比较？化疗诱导周围神经病变的个例研究

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100577

Alice Yu, Rosalie Viney, Stephen Goodall, Deborah J. Street

{"title":"Can an ‘informed’ general population sample be comparable to a patient sample? A case study of preferences for chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy","authors":"Alice Yu, Rosalie Viney, Stephen Goodall, Deborah J. Street","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>In health care preference studies, a general population sample may be the only viable option. However, they lack the understanding of treatment/care of patient samples. This study investigated the impact of providing extra information on general population comprehension of discrete choice experiment (DCE) choice sets. Preferences were compared between an informed and ‘naïve’ general population sample and a patient sample. This was investigated in the context of eliciting preferences for features of a chemotherapy induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) assessment tool.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A general population sample was randomised to two arms. Arm 1 (N = 167) received written information and some pictures about CIPN and Arm 2 (N = 168) received extra information in the form of a short video and moving images. These responses were compared to a patient sample (N = 117) that received the same information as Arm 1. All respondents completed 8 choice sets each.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Arms 1 and 2 of the general population sample had no preference differences, although respondents in Arm 2 had an easier time identifying differences between assessment options than those in Arm 1. The patient and general population sample had overlapping preferences for some attribute parameters, while differences were more in terms of strength of preference rather than differences in preferences.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Extra information can improve general population understanding of DCE choice sets. However, it was not found to bring general population preferences closer to the patient sample. This has implications when considering willingness to pay by patients versus general population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A smooth bounded choice model: Formulation and application in three large-scale case studies 光滑有界选择模型：在三个大规模案例研究中的表述和应用

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100574

Laurent Cazor , Lawrence Christopher Duncan , David Paul Watling , Otto Anker Nielsen , Thomas Kjær Rasmussen

{"title":"A smooth bounded choice model: Formulation and application in three large-scale case studies","authors":"Laurent Cazor , Lawrence Christopher Duncan , David Paul Watling , Otto Anker Nielsen , Thomas Kjær Rasmussen","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100574","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100574","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One-stage (implicit) choice set formation models offer a computationally efficient way to model how individuals consider alternatives. Among these, the Bounded Choice Model (BCM) stands out for its consistent, utility-based cutoffs. However, the BCM is non-differentiable, which limits its usefulness: key outputs such as elasticities and standard errors cannot be computed analytically. To overcome this, we introduce the Smooth Bounded Choice Model (SBCM). This model assumes a new smooth truncated logistic distribution for the error terms and applies a smooth approximation to the maximum function used in defining the reference utility. As a result, the SBCM is infinitely differentiable, while preserving core features of the BCM, such as bounding, continuity, and the ability to collapse to the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model under specific conditions. Importantly, the SBCM is not just a smoother version of the BCM. Its more flexible distributional assumptions can better capture actual choice behaviour and allow for meaningful differences in predicted probabilities. We derive closed-form expressions for choice probabilities, gradients, Hessians, elasticities, and standard errors, and present a practical estimation method. The SBCM is tested in three case studies: one mode choice and two route choice settings (bicycle and public transport). In all cases, it outperforms both the BCM and MNL in terms of model fit and interpretability. While the BCM has so far been limited to car route choice, we show that the SBCM is widely applicable across various discrete choice contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 100574"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding the decision-making process of choice modellers 理解选择建模者的决策过程

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100562

Gabriel Nova , Sander van Cranenburgh , Stephane Hess

{"title":"Understanding the decision-making process of choice modellers","authors":"Gabriel Nova , Sander van Cranenburgh , Stephane Hess","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Choice Modelling is a widely used framework for understanding human choice behaviour across disciplines. Building a choice model is a complex, semi-structured process that involves a combination of prior assumptions, behavioural theories, and statistical methods. This complex set of decisions, coupled with diverse workflows, can lead to substantial variability in model outcomes. To investigate these modelling processes, we introduce the Discrete Choice Modelling Serious Game (DCM-SG), a novel tool that mimics the workflow of choice modellers and tracks the modelling decisions participants make. In our application, participants developed models to estimate willingness-to-pay values for reducing noise pollution. Their actions were tracked, enabling analysis of workflow patterns and modelling strategies. Forty participants, most with over five years of experience, completed the game. Our contributions are twofold. Methodologically, the DCM-SG captures sequential data on modellers’ workflows, which we analyse using telemetry and sequential pattern mining techniques to uncover dynamic patterns of in-game tool usage, phase transitions, and model specification approaches. Substantively, there was a strong preference for data visualisation and frequent specification of simpler models (Multinomial Logit), alongside attempts to specify more complex models. These findings suggest that in time-constrained or resource-limited settings, modellers may underexplore important factors such as covariates, non-linearities, and complex specifications. Moreover, participants who engaged more thoroughly in data exploration and iterative model comparison consistently achieved superior model fit and parsimony. These results demonstrate how sequential data from the DCM-SG can uncover variations in modelling practices and provide a foundation for understanding the art of choice modelling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144893393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tri-reference-point framework for analyzing air-rail passenger airport access behaviour 分析空铁旅客机场通行行为的三参考点框架

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100565

Wenqian Zou , Yiming Zheng , Shengguo Gao , Yonglei Jiang

引用次数: 0

Quantifying the value of carbon label information in food choice using drift diffusion modelling 用漂移扩散模型量化碳标签信息在食品选择中的价值

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100564

Yu Shuang Gan, Neal Stuart Hinvest

{"title":"Quantifying the value of carbon label information in food choice using drift diffusion modelling","authors":"Yu Shuang Gan, Neal Stuart Hinvest","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The use of carbon labels as an intervention to increase more sustainable food consumption has seen many mixed results, with some studies showing that consumers do not utilise the carbon labels in their decisions. To address the mixed results in the literature, we present a novel and in-depth evaluation of how carbon labels work by quantifying the importance of carbon label information relative to taste preferences in food decisions via a computational modelling approach. Participants (<em>n</em> = 48) were presented with multiple trials of two sandwiches alongside their carbon labels. Participants' choice and response time were recorded whilst visual attention was tracked with an eye-tracking device. The Multi-attribute Attentional Drift Diffusion Model (maaDDM) was fitted to data through Bayesian STAN modelling in R. The analysis revealed that carbon labels were used to a moderate extent similar to individual taste preference in choosing sandwiches, but the extent of use varied as a function of participant's perception of the negative impact of GHG emissions (the more negative perception, the greater use of carbon labels). We further explore the insights gained from maaDDM on participant's information sampling behaviour, and discuss the implications for policies to identify a critical valuation threshold of carbon labels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"56 ","pages":"Article 100564"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0