Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献

Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538

Patricio Salas , Rodrigo De la Fuente , Sebastian Astroza , Juan Antonio Carrasco

{"title":"Analysis of attribute importance in multinomial logit models using Shapley values-based methods","authors":"Patricio Salas , Rodrigo De la Fuente , Sebastian Astroza , Juan Antonio Carrasco","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the use of Shapley values-based methods to determine the importance of attributes in discrete choice models, specifically within a Multinomial Logit (MNL) framework. We extend the Shapley decomposition Shorrocks (2013) method from linear models. Additionally, the SHAP method Lundberg and Lee (2017) idea is applied to assess the impact of attributes on individual-level choice probability predictions. A simulation study demonstrates the effectiveness of these approaches under various experimental conditions, including attributes in several ranges and interaction terms. Finally, an empirical application is conducted using well-known travel mode choice datasets. The simulation results show that Shapley values accurately capture the global importance of attributes on goodness-of-fit. The SHAP method provides transparency in MNL model predictions, clarifying how changes in attribute values influence choice probabilities for each decision-maker. These methods offer a complementary perspective to traditional metrics like elasticities and traditional relative importance analysis Orme(2006). In the empirical application, Shapley decomposition highlights the most relevant attributes, while SHAP values uncover individual-level impacts that might not be apparent through elasticities alone. Global and individual-level analysis offers a more comprehensive understanding of attribute importance. In summary, integrating Shapley values with traditional metrics ensures a robust analysis, aiding practitioners and policymakers in making informed decisions based on broad trends and specific impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100538"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Control Function Approach for Addressing Endogeneity in Transport Models: A Case Study on the London–Amsterdam Route

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537

Thomas E. Guerrero B. , Nicolò Avogadro , Raúl Ramos

{"title":"Control Function Approach for Addressing Endogeneity in Transport Models: A Case Study on the London–Amsterdam Route","authors":"Thomas E. Guerrero B. , Nicolò Avogadro , Raúl Ramos","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Endogeneity is a key empirical challenge in transportation modeling, which may lead to inconsistent estimates and biased policy decisions. This paper investigates the sources of endogeneity and focuses on tackling this issue for a discrete choice model analyzing the multimodal London–Amsterdam route, where air transport and high-speed rail (HSR) compete. Contrary to previous literature, we found no evidence of endogeneity in service frequency for the London–Amsterdam market. This could be attributed to market-specific features, such as feeding considerations, slot retention dynamics, and the congestion of the HSR network, which constrains capacity expansion opportunities. Conversely, we observed that fare introduced endogeneity into the model. To address this issue, we applied the control function approach and proposed two novel instruments: the fare for similar markets and the price of power sources. These instruments proved to be effective in correcting for endogeneity by increasing model performance. We also discuss the adverse impact of neglecting endogeneity and estimate price and frequency elasticities, ultimately demonstrating the significance of dealing with endogeneity in ensuring the reliability of results in transportation studies and appropriately informing policy decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100537"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536

Mirosława Łukawska, Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Filipe Rodrigues

{"title":"Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model","authors":"Mirosława Łukawska, Anders Fjendbo Jensen, Filipe Rodrigues","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100536","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional choice models often entail the assumption that the preference parameters of the decision-maker are constant throughout time and across different choice situations, which may be too strong for certain choice modelling applications. This paper proposes an effective approach to model systematic, context-dependent heterogeneity, thereby introducing the concept of the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model (C-MMNL). In this model, a neural network maps contextual information to interpretable shifts in the preference parameters of each individual in each choice occasion. The proposed model offers several key advantages. First, it supports both continuous and discrete variables, as well as complex non-linear interactions between both types of variables. Secondly, each context specification is considered jointly as a whole by the neural network, rather than each variable being considered independently. Finally, since the neural network parameters are shared across all decision-makers, it can leverage information from other decision-makers to infer the effect of a particular context on a particular decision-maker. Even though the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model allows for flexible interactions between attributes, the increase in computational complexity is minor, compared to the mixed multinomial logit model. We illustrate the concept and interpretation of the proposed model in a simulation study. We furthermore present a real-world case study from the travel behaviour domain — a bicycle route choice model, based on a large-scale, crowdsourced dataset of GPS trajectories including 119,448 trips made by 8555 cyclists.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100536"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

New misspecification tests for multinomial logit models

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100531

Dennis Fok, Richard Paap

引用次数: 0

Location choice of residential housing supply: An application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100535

Yu Zhang, Eric J. Miller

引用次数: 0

Social finance in emerging markets: Insights into Chinese individual investor preferences with broader implications

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534

Yaoming Liang , Ruiqi Chen , Senbin Zhang , Hongfu Liu , Li Han

{"title":"Social finance in emerging markets: Insights into Chinese individual investor preferences with broader implications","authors":"Yaoming Liang , Ruiqi Chen , Senbin Zhang , Hongfu Liu , Li Han","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100534","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Social finance, which integrates social impact with financial returns, is increasingly recognized as a catalyst for sustainable socio-economic development. This study presents an empirical analysis of Chinese individual investors' preferences for social finance products, using a customized choice experiment. The results reveal a strong investor preference for products with high annualized returns, short investment tenures, a focus on the healthcare sector, government backing, and flexible redemption options. By applying latent class analysis, we identify three distinct investor segments: Flexible Savers, Holistic Benefit Assessors, and Economic Return Seekers. The study also examines how demographic characteristics such as age, education, income, risk tolerance, philanthropic involvement, and awareness of social finance are associated with distinct investor segments. The findings suggest that future efforts should focus on designing social finance products that align with the diverse needs of these investor segments, thereby enhancing the appeal and effectiveness of social finance initiatives. Such tailored strategies could play a pivotal role in mobilizing private capital for social finance, maximizing its potential to drive sustainable socio-economic progress in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"54 ","pages":"Article 100534"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143146673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Latent class choice models with an error structure: Investigating potential unobserved associations between latent segmentation and behavior generation 具有误差结构的潜类选择模型：调查潜在细分与行为产生之间潜在的未观察关联

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100519

Sung Hoo Kim , Patricia L. Mokhtarian

{"title":"Latent class choice models with an error structure: Investigating potential unobserved associations between latent segmentation and behavior generation","authors":"Sung Hoo Kim , Patricia L. Mokhtarian","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Latent class choice modeling has gained great popularity in the transportation and choice modeling communities across the years. However, discussion of principles associated with the specification of the class membership model has barely appeared in the literature. Related to this issue, this study questions whether one of the basic assumptions of latent class choice modeling, that of independence between latent segmentation and the behavior generation process, is tenable. We formulate latent class choice models where the unobserved influences on latent segmentation and behavior generation are correlated, by introducing an error structure reflecting that supposition. The proposed method is applied to two empirical settings. In the first application, the dependent variable is an ordinal variable measuring willingness to share autonomous vehicle rides with strangers. In the second application, the dependent variable is a binary indicator of whether a person has used ridehailing services for social purposes. In both applications, error correlations were statistically significant, indicating that the segmentation and behavior generation processes are jointly determined. Although goodness of fits and parameter estimates per se are similar to those of the standard latent class choice models for these particular applications, allowing an error structure leads to a subtle change in model implications. In particular, our scenario analyses, which present marginal effects, illustrate the value of the proposed model for considering jointness arising from correlated errors, in contrast to standard latent class models. Lastly, we propose several avenues for future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"53 ","pages":"Article 100519"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Model choice and framing effects: Do discrete choice modeling decisions affect loss aversion estimates? 模型选择和框架效应：离散选择建模决策会影响损失规避估计值吗？

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100524

Ruth Quainoo , Gregory Howard , Vasundhara Gaur , Corey Lang

引用次数: 0

A consistent moment equations for binary probit models with endogenous variables using instrumental variables 利用工具变量建立具有内生变量的二元概率模型的一致矩方程

IF 2.8 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2024.100523

Louis de Grange , Felipe González , Matthieu Marechal , Rodrigo Troncoso

引用次数: 0

Transformation-based flexible error structures for choice modeling 用于选择建模的基于变换的灵活误差结构