Journal of Choice Modelling最新文献_第10页

Extensive hypothesis testing for estimation of mixed-Logit models 混合Logit模型估计的广义假设检验

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100409

Prithvi Bhat Beeramoole , Cristian Arteaga , Alban Pinz , Md Mazharul Haque , Alexander Paz

{"title":"Extensive hypothesis testing for estimation of mixed-Logit models","authors":"Prithvi Bhat Beeramoole , Cristian Arteaga , Alban Pinz , Md Mazharul Haque , Alexander Paz","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100409","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Estimation of discrete outcome specifications involves significant hypothesis testing, including multiple modelling decisions which could affect results and interpretation. Model development is generally time-bound, and decisions largely rely on experience, knowledge of the problem context and statistics. There is often a risk of adopting restricted specifications, which could preclude important insights and valuable behavioral patterns. This study proposes a framework to assist in testing hypotheses and discovering mixed-Logit specifications that best capture discrete outcome behavior. The proposed framework includes a mathematical programming formulation and a bi-level constrained optimization algorithm to simultaneously test various modelling assumptions and produce meaningful specifications within a reasonable time. The bi-level framework illustrates the integration of a population-based metaheuristic with model estimation procedures. In addition, the optimization algorithm allows the analyst to impose assumptions on the models to test specific hypotheses or to ensure compliance with literature. Numerical experiments are conducted using different datasets and behavioral processes to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed extensive hypothesis testing in terms of interpretability and goodness-of-fit. Results illustrate the ability of the proposed algorithm to reveal important insights that can potentially be overlooked due to limited and/or biased hypothesis testing. In addition, the proposed extensive hypothesis testing generates multiple acceptable solutions, thereby suggesting potential directions for further investigation. The proposed framework can serve as a decision-assistance modelling tool in various applications, involving many variables and outcomes, such as road safety analysis, consumer choice behavior, and integrated land-use and travel choice models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100409"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50170527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Distribution-free estimation of individual parameter logit (IPL) models using combined evolutionary and optimization algorithms 使用进化和优化算法组合的个体参数logit（IPL）模型的无分布估计

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100396

Joffre Swait

{"title":"Distribution-free estimation of individual parameter logit (IPL) models using combined evolutionary and optimization algorithms","authors":"Joffre Swait","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>When estimating random coefficients models from choice data, decisions relating to the multivariate density function assumed to describe preference heterogeneity across the population raise questions about stochastic (in)dependence between preference dimensions, uni- vs. multi-modality, potential point masses, bounds and/or constraints on support regions, among other concerns. Parametric representations of population distributions have generally implied uncomfortable compromises to achieve estimation tractability. It would seem preferable to sidestep such issues by estimating individual preferences in a distribution-free manner, but this freedom of form implies a large number of parameters since we lose the parsimony enabled by parametric densities and must deal directly with estimation of individual decision maker preferences. I propose a hybrid distribution-free estimator for individual parameter logit models that uses a genetic algorithm as first stage, the solution from which becomes a starting point for a gradient-based search to obtain the final posterior maximum likelihood estimates of individual preferences. This estimator is described in detail, its parameter recovery capability is tested with Monte Carlo data generation simulations, and a case study is developed in some detail to illustrate its use in policy analysis. The estimator can be applied to both stated and revealed preference data, requiring only that sufficient choice replications be available for individual observation units consistent with extant estimation methods. Computational experience shows the estimator to require CPU times comparable to extant simulation-based estimation methods, meaning that its use is practical for the exploration of the parameter space through multiple trials.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100396"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50170522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to the joint modelling of Revealed and stated choices 揭示和陈述选择联合建模的贝叶斯层次方法

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100419

Zili Li , Simon P. Washington , Zuduo Zheng , Carlo G. Prato

{"title":"A Bayesian hierarchical approach to the joint modelling of Revealed and stated choices","authors":"Zili Li , Simon P. Washington , Zuduo Zheng , Carlo G. Prato","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Revealed and stated choice data are fundamental inputs to understanding individuals’ preferences. Owning to the distinctive characteristics and complementary nature of these two types of data, making joint inference based on their combined information content represents an attractive approach to preference studies. However, complications may arise from the different decision protocols under the two distinct choice contexts. In this study, a Bayesian<span> hierarchical model is proposed to make joint inference from combined RP and SP data, with special attention paid to capturing the behavioural differences between the two choice contexts. In addition to the well-recognised issues of decision inertia and scale differences, the proposed model also takes into account other behavioural characteristics such as a decision-maker ignoring situation constraints, non-attending attributes, and misinterpreting attributes. An empirical analysis of a combined RP and SP dataset of travel mode choices is used to demonstrate the advantageous features of the model. Upon examining the empirical evidence, two main advantages emerge: the model provides direct measures of the effect of behavioural issues arising from ignoring situation constraints and non-attending attributes, as well as evidence for the misinterpretation of attributes.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100419"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50170520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Intra-household bargaining for a joint vacation 共同度假的家庭内部谈判

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100408

David Boto-García , Petr Mariel , José Francisco Baños-Pino

引用次数: 1

Building a life-course intertemporal discrete choice model to analyze migration biographies 构建生命历程跨期离散选择模型分析移民传记

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100410

Weiyan Zong , Junyi Zhang , Xiaoguang Yang

{"title":"Building a life-course intertemporal discrete choice model to analyze migration biographies","authors":"Weiyan Zong , Junyi Zhang , Xiaoguang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Individual migration mobilities over the life course have not been well understood in existing studies, and therefore ways to represent the underlying intertemporal dynamics and heterogeneities have remained unclear. To fill this research gap, this study investigates the domestic migration of people residing in the Capital Area of Japan, which has suffered from various issues caused by the over-concentration of population for several decades. Using a web-based questionnaire survey, workers aged 20–49 living in the Capital Area were requested to recall their five latest migration experiences (i.e., migration biography). A life-course intertemporal discrete choice model with cross-sectional and longitudinal heterogeneities was developed to represent individual migration destination biographies, by introducing quasi-hyperbolic utility and drawing on time preference theory. It was found that a considerable proportion of working people in the Capital Area (especially Tokyo) are from other regions of Japan. In the modeling analysis, the temporally-changing, intertwined and heterogeneous roles of place attachment, motives and altruism in migration decisions over the life course are empirically confirmed. Nonlinear influences of past, present and future utilities are further revealed, where the past utility grows more influential, and the importance of future utility diminishes over time. Policy implications of the derived findings for the development of </span>megacities and local cities are discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100410"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50170525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Cost vector effects in discrete choice experiments with positive status quo cost 具有正现状成本的离散选择实验中的成本向量效应

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100401

Heini Ahtiainen , Eija Pouta , Wojciech Zawadzki , Annika Tienhaara

{"title":"Cost vector effects in discrete choice experiments with positive status quo cost","authors":"Heini Ahtiainen , Eija Pouta , Wojciech Zawadzki , Annika Tienhaara","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100401","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An important component of the design phase of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) is formulating the cost vector, which specifies the costs of the alternatives and enables the calculation of marginal willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. If the cost vector affects choice behaviour, welfare estimates may depend on the choice of the cost vector, which leads to problems with the validity and reliability of DCE results. We employ a split-sample design to examine cost vector effects on choice behaviour and WTP estimates. Our data come from a DCE on agri-environmental policies to a nationally representative sample in Finland. We provide additional insights compared to previous research by including four cost vectors with otherwise identical surveys and experimental designs and a positive cost for the status quo alternative, with cost levels for policy alternatives both below and above the status quo cost. We obtain some evidence that the cost vector affects choice behaviour, as the proportion of status quo choices is larger with higher cost vectors. Both absolute and relative cost levels matter for choices. The marginal WTP estimates are highest in the sub-sample with the largest range cost vector that has cost levels both below and above the status quo cost. We suggest more careful pre-testing of the cost levels compared to current practices to determine a plausible range of cost levels to produce valid welfare estimates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100401"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50170526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Data-driven assisted model specification for complex choice experiments data: Association rules learning and random forests for Participatory Value Evaluation experiments 复杂选择实验数据驱动的辅助模型规范：参与式价值评估实验的关联规则学习和随机森林

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100397

Jose Ignacio Hernandez, Sander van Cranenburgh, Caspar Chorus, Niek Mouter

{"title":"Data-driven assisted model specification for complex choice experiments data: Association rules learning and random forests for Participatory Value Evaluation experiments","authors":"Jose Ignacio Hernandez, Sander van Cranenburgh, Caspar Chorus, Niek Mouter","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100397","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose three procedures based on association rules (AR) learning and random forests (RF) to support the specification of a portfolio choice model applied in data from complex choice experiment data, specifically a Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE) choice experiment. In a PVE choice experiment, respondents choose a combination of alternatives, subject to a resource constraint. We combine a methodological-iterative (MI) procedure with AR learning and RF models to support the specification of parameters of a portfolio choice model. Additionally, we use RF model predictions to contrast the validity of the behavioural assumptions of different specifications of the portfolio choice model. We use data of a PVE choice experiment conducted to elicit the preferences of Dutch citizens for lifting COVID-19 measures. Our results show model fit and interpretation improvements in the portfolio choice model, compared with conventional model specifications. Additionally, we provide guidelines on the use of outcomes from AR learning and RF models from a choice modelling perspective.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100397"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling preference heterogeneity using model-based decision trees 使用基于模型的决策树建模偏好异质性

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100393

Álvaro A. Gutiérrez-Vargas, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

{"title":"Modeling preference heterogeneity using model-based decision trees","authors":"Álvaro A. Gutiérrez-Vargas, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100393","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article investigates the usage of a general model-based recursive partitioning algorithm to model preference heterogeneity. We use the algorithm to grow a decision tree based on statistical tests of the stability of individuals’ preference parameters. In particular, we used a Mixed Logit (MIXL) model with alternative-specific attributes at the end leaves of the tree while using individual characteristics as partition variables. This configuration allows us to search for instabilities of the taste parameters across individuals’ characteristics. We conduct a simulation study to investigate the algorithm’s ability to recover different data generating processes with structural breaks in the taste parameters. The results show that the algorithm can correctly recover diverse tree-like data generating processes. Additionally, we applied the algorithm to stated choice data of the preferences for the environmental impact of (hypothetical) energy generation plans in Chile. The results show that the model-based decision tree fits the data better than MIXL in terms of information criteria. Moreover, we show that the derived tree structure depends on the assumptions on the parameters’ distributions. Additionally, we compare the model-based decision tree model with Latent Class (LC) models with and without within-class heterogeneity. Finally, we show that the recursive partitioning algorithm can inform the selection of variables to be included in the LC allocation models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100393"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Multiple discrete choice and quantity with order statistic marginal utilities 具有订单统计边际效用的多重离散选择与数量

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2022.100395

Scott Webster

引用次数: 1

A Bayesian instrumental variable model for multinomial choice with correlated alternatives 具有相关备选方案的多项选择的贝叶斯工具变量模型

IF 2.4 3区经济学

Journal of Choice Modelling Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100400

Hajime Watanabe , Takuya Maruyama

{"title":"A Bayesian instrumental variable model for multinomial choice with correlated alternatives","authors":"Hajime Watanabe , Takuya Maruyama","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100400","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Endogeneity and correlated alternatives are major concerns to be addressed in travel behavior analysis. However, these issues have rarely been dealt with simultaneously in advanced discrete choice models. This study proposes a multinomial probit model that incorporates the instrumental variable method, namely, a fully parametric instrumental variable model for a multinomial choice. The proposed model has the following three characteristics: (1) it allows binary and/or continuous endogenous variables; (2) it allows any number of instrumental variables in each alternative; and (3) it allows positive and/or negative correlations between any choice alternatives. For parameter estimation, we also propose a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that can be accommodated in more extended model structures. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed model addresses endogeneity while allowing correlations between the choice alternatives. Meanwhile, the simulation also implies that the users need to pay attention to the setting of the prior distribution when an endogenous variable of interest is binary, even if the sample size is moderate. The proposed model will be a useful tool in disciplines in which both endogeneity and correlations between choice alternatives are major concerns.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100400"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50198179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0