A Bayesian instrumental variable model for multinomial choice with correlated alternatives

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Hajime Watanabe , Takuya Maruyama
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Endogeneity and correlated alternatives are major concerns to be addressed in travel behavior analysis. However, these issues have rarely been dealt with simultaneously in advanced discrete choice models. This study proposes a multinomial probit model that incorporates the instrumental variable method, namely, a fully parametric instrumental variable model for a multinomial choice. The proposed model has the following three characteristics: (1) it allows binary and/or continuous endogenous variables; (2) it allows any number of instrumental variables in each alternative; and (3) it allows positive and/or negative correlations between any choice alternatives. For parameter estimation, we also propose a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that can be accommodated in more extended model structures. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed model addresses endogeneity while allowing correlations between the choice alternatives. Meanwhile, the simulation also implies that the users need to pay attention to the setting of the prior distribution when an endogenous variable of interest is binary, even if the sample size is moderate. The proposed model will be a useful tool in disciplines in which both endogeneity and correlations between choice alternatives are major concerns.

具有相关备选方案的多项选择的贝叶斯工具变量模型
内在性和相关的替代方案是旅行行为分析中需要解决的主要问题。然而,在高级离散选择模型中很少同时处理这些问题。本研究提出了一个包含工具变量法的多项式多项式概率模型,即多项式选择的全参数工具变量模型。该模型具有以下三个特点:(1)允许二元和/或连续的内生变量;(2) 它允许在每个备选方案中使用任意数量的工具变量;以及(3)它允许任何选择备选方案之间的正相关性和/或负相关性。对于参数估计,我们还提出了一种贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法,该算法可以适应更多扩展的模型结构。模拟研究表明,所提出的模型解决了内生性问题,同时允许选择方案之间的相关性。同时,模拟还表明,当感兴趣的内生变量是二元的时,即使样本量适中,用户也需要注意先验分布的设置。所提出的模型将是一个有用的工具,在这些学科中,内生性和选择方案之间的相关性都是主要关注的问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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