将选择实验整合到基于代理的模型中,以模拟气候变化引发的移民:以越南湄公河三角洲为例

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Tra Thi Trinh , Alistair Munro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

预测气候变化对移民的未来影响很困难,原因有很多,包括许多决策的互动性和动态性以及行为的异质性。一种流行的解决方案是基于代理的模型(ABM),它能很好地处理动态和异构性,但在个体行为方面往往缺乏严格的基础。此外,鉴于实际气候变化的影响有限,根据历史数据建立适当的移民选择行为模型可能是一项挑战。为了解决这个问题,我们使用定制选择实验(CE)建立了未来移民的ABM,该实验旨在研究生活在越南湄公河三角洲(VMD)的农民的移民意向。在CE中,受访者被要求为使用六个属性构建的情景做出移民选择:干旱强度、洪水频率、移民收入收益、移民网络、邻居的选择和作物选择限制。该模拟将持续到2050年,基于未来全球温室气体排放的两种情景——代表性浓度路径(RCP)4.5和RCP8.5。研究结果表明,气候变化可能会导致高水平的移民,而先前存在的移民和邻居选择的积极反馈尤为重要。研究结果还表明,作物限制条例对VMD沿海省份的移民有显著影响。最后,我们发现各省的移民驱动因素差异很大,这表明政策制定者针对每个省份采取了有针对性的行动。总之,该研究表明,将CE纳入ABM可以促进气候引发移民的预测建模。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Forecasting the future impact of climate change on migration is difficult, for many reasons, including the interactive and dynamic nature of many decisions and the heterogeneity of behavior. One popular solution, agent-based models (ABM) cope well with dynamics and heterogeneity, but often lack rigorous foundations in terms of individual behavior. Moreover, given limited exposure to actual climate change, it can be a challenge to build adequate behavioral models of migration choice based on historical data. To tackle this issue, we build an ABM of future migration using a bespoke choice experiment (CE) designed to examine intention to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In the CE, respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income gain from migration, migration networks, neighbors' choice, and crop choice restriction. The simulation runs to 2050 and is based on two scenarios of future global emissions of greenhouse gases—Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results suggest potentially high levels of migration as a result of climate change and the particular importance of positive feedback from pre-existing migration and neighbor's choices. The results also suggest that crop-restriction regulations have a significant impact on migration for coastal provinces of VMD. Finally, we find that migration drivers vary significantly across provinces, which suggests the policymakers point to targeted action for each province. In summary, the study demonstrates how integrating CE into ABM can foster the predictive modeling of climate-induced migration.

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CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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