Evaluating the gap choice decisions of pedestrians in conflict situations in mass religious gatherings and controlled experimental setup – A pilot study

Abstract

Previous studies on modelling the microscopic behaviour of pedestrians have focused on conflict resolution among pedestrians in pedestrian-pedestrian interactions. Many of these models propose alternate mechanisms to avoid conflicts by introducing repulsive forces between pedestrians or a set of predefined rules stating the precedence of movements to sidestep obstacles and other pedestrians. However, the possibility of formulating the decision-making mechanism pedestrians use to overcome conflicts as a gap-seeking behaviour has not been explored. In this study, resolving conflicts between opposing pedestrians is modelled as gap choice decisions made by individuals. Pedestrians looking for gaps or spaces in a crowd to facilitate their movement form the basis for such an analysis. The study compares pedestrians' gap acceptance behaviour across two scenarios: pedestrian movement in a field setup (Kumbh Mela) and a controlled experiment. Multiple gap choice decisions of individuals are modelled to understand the effect of individual-level heterogeneity on gap choices. Apart from the gap duration, spacing, position of gap, linear density, age, and presence of luggage significantly influenced the gap choices. Model validation is done using appropriate methods for both field and experimental data. The bootstrap method of internal validation and holdout validation is used to assess the performance of the estimated model on field data and experimental data, respectively. It is seen that the models have reasonable predictive and discriminative abilities. The analysis results also indicate that pedestrians tend to force gaps to facilitate movement in their natural state. Consequently, controlled experiments might have limitations in reproducing or motivating the participants to behave like a crowd.