Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"Challenges in the Consumer-Side of the Energy Transition","authors":"Andrea La Nauze,&nbsp;Flavio Menezes","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12577","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The decarbonisation of the Australian economy relies on the transition of the electricity grid from fossil fuel to renewable sources. In this paper, we briefly summarise the logic behind the design of the National Electricity Market, the market servicing 88% of the Australian population. We then explore the challenges facing the National Electricity Market during its transition and emphasise key proposals aimed at reforming the consumer, or demand-side, of the market. We highlight four challenges - whether consumers will be active, whether retail markets can deliver contracts that facilitate efficient transition, whether the wholesale market will operate effectively and whether regulatory barriers can be quickly addressed.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 4","pages":"422-431"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12577","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Slope of the Phillips Curve and the Optimal Average Inflation Targeting Window","authors":"Denny Lie","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12573","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The slope of the Phillips curve has been shown to be flatter in recent years, including in Australia. How does this impact the optimal targeting window for a central bank conducting an average inflation targeting policy? This article shows that, in the face of the flattening of the Phillips curve, it is desirable to increase the targeting window. Doing so would lead to lower inflation fluctuations and to a non-trivial welfare gain. In a persistently higher-than-target inflation, high-interest-rate environment, this implies that the central bank should keep the nominal interest rate higher for longer.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"283-293"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12573","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting","authors":"Debdulal Mallick","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia, like many other countries, experienced an unexpected surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. This has renewed interest in the Phillips curve because of its important implications for monetary policy. We estimate the price Phillips curve in the post-inflation targeting period using the most recent state-level data. Identification relies on variation in regional demand that policymakers do not aim to stabilize. After controlling for cost-push shocks and equilibrium unemployment, we obtain a modest slope of the Phillips curve and, more importantly, we do not find any steepening of the Phillips curve in the post-COVID period. Without correct identification, the post-COVID Phillips curve would be steeper as documented for other countries including the United States. We also find that the slope gradually decreases with the level of unemployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"272-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Downing Lecture 2024: Where Does Wealth Come From?","authors":"Sandra E. Black","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12568","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>Recent decades have seen substantial increases in wealth inequality; this is particularly troubling given the high persistence of this inequality across generations. Yet, we have surprisingly little understanding of how and why wealth is transmitted across generations. Is this persistence driven by innate biological differences across families? Or is it driven by growing up in a different environment with access to different opportunities? In the 2024 Downing Public Lecture, Professor Sandra E. Black discusses the economics research that tries to answer this question, focusing on how one can disentangle the role of nature versus nurture</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"213-223"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12568","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the Policy Forum on the Phillips Curve","authors":"Sarantis Tsiaplias","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12574","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In the context of the current economic climate in Australia, uncertainty about future economic growth and labour market conditions feeds into uncertainty about inflation, hence the path of future interest rates. There is tension, for example, between reducing interest rates early or maintaining interest rates at a ‘higher for longer’ level. The Phillips Curve is relevant to this tension since it provides information about the sensitivity of inflation to wider economic conditions. The three articles in this forum explore the dynamics of the Phillips Curve, with a particular focus on Australia.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the first article, Mallick uses state-level data to estimate the price Phillips Curve for Australia. A novel aspect of the research is that it examines the inflation–unemployment trade-off in Australia during the post-COVID period. Overall, the slope of the Phillips Curve with respect to unemployment is negative, albeit moderately. The article finds little evidence that the slope has steepened in the post-COVID period.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the second article, Lie ties the Phillips Curve to monetary policy, examining the importance of the inflation targeting window when the Phillips Curve is relatively flat. Given the Reserve Bank's (RBA) inflation targeting window of 2–3 per cent, Lie argues that the RBA effectively engages in ‘average-inflation-targeting’ (AIT). Given a flat Phillips Curve, Lie presents evidence that there are welfare gains stemming from the adoption of longer targeting windows for AIT. Given current economic conditions, this suggests that it may be appropriate to adopt a slower (monetary policy) responsiveness to news about lower inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the third article, Abbas studies the role of the natural rate of interest &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;*&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${&lt;mpadded xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"&gt;r&lt;/mpadded&gt;}_{t}^{* }$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; on the NKPC. Evidence is provided of significant time variation in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;*&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${&lt;mpadded xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"&gt;r&lt;/mpadded&gt;}_{t}^{* }$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, and t","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"271"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 r\u0000 *\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 ${r}^{* }$","authors":"Syed Kanwar Abbas","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this article, I argue that shifts in the natural rate of interest provide important insights for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The deviation of the real interest rate from the natural interest rate (interest rate gap) captures the monetary policy stance, which is important for the dynamics of inflation and the output gap in the wake of persistent and permanent variation in the natural rate of interest. I present the evolution of the estimates of the Taylor-rule consistent- natural interest rate, and thus the associated path of the expectations of future inflation via the Fisherian relationship. The path of these two variables has implications for estimation of the NKPC.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"294-301"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labour Market Arrangements and Competition Law in Australia: Time for Change?","authors":"Rhonda L. Smith","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12571","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>As part of an ongoing review of Australia's</i> Competition and Consumer Act <i>(CCA) by Treasury, consideration is being given to removing the exemption from that law for conduct related to the labour market. This article considers whether there is sufficient justification to do so and, if so, how such conduct should be assessed under the CCA. No-poach agreements are cartel conduct and other restrictive agreements may substantially lessen competition in labour markets. Nevertheless, in some circumstances there are legitimate reasons for some of these arrangements. Some suggestions are made as to how restrictive labour arrangements could be addressed by competition law</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 4","pages":"432-440"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12571","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143248230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Financial Structure Matter for Economic Growth? New Evidence from China","authors":"Guangdong Xu,&nbsp;Binwei Gui,&nbsp;Shudan Xu","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12570","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Following the methodology of Beck et al. in 2001 and Levine in 2002, three relative indicators are constructed to measure China's financial structure at the provincial level and these indicators are applied to explore the current financial structure–economic growth nexus in the Chinese context. The ordinary panel regression model results indicate that different dimensions of financial structure have different growth implications, while the panel threshold regression model results suggest a nonlinear relationship between financial structure and economic growth based on the stage of economic development, the relative importance of the state sector, and the financial structure per se.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 4","pages":"351-383"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143253710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Dual Risks of Digital Exclusion and Unaffordability of Telecommunications in Lower-Income Australian Households","authors":"Ewa Orzechowska-Fischer,&nbsp;Emily Rose,&nbsp;Robert Breunig","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12569","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12569","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>We analyse household telecommunications spending in Australia over the period 2006–2021 using Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data. We find the affordability of telecommunications is improving, and that telecommunications spending behaves like other core necessities, such as food. We find households in which members are not employed, have relatively low education, are elderly, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders or immigrants, speak English poorly, reside alone, or have long-term health conditions are at heightened risk of digital exclusion due to lower spending on telecommunications. Households located in rural areas, with children or with members that work from home are at higher risk of digital exclusion as a consequence of overspending on telecommunications. Overall, the number of people at risk of digital exclusion from inadequate spending or overspending is quite small in Australia. The risks appear to have decreased during COVID-19. Telecommunications is a core necessity but given the small number of people at risk of exclusion, policies addressing affordability should be highly targeted</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 4","pages":"319-350"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12569","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141645628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors’ Report 2023","authors":"Ross Williams","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12566","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 2","pages":"206-207"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141286955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}