新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线与 r * ${r}^{* }$

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12572

Syed Kanwar Abbas

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本文中，我认为自然利率的变化为新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）提供了重要启示。实际利率与自然利率的偏差（利率差距）反映了货币政策的立场，这对于自然利率持续和永久变化后通货膨胀和产出缺口的动态变化非常重要。我介绍了泰勒规则一致的自然利率估算值的演变，以及通过费雪关系得出的未来通胀预期的相关路径。这两个变量的变化轨迹对估计 NKPC 有影响。

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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and r * ${r}^{* }$

In this article, I argue that shifts in the natural rate of interest provide important insights for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The deviation of the real interest rate from the natural interest rate (interest rate gap) captures the monetary policy stance, which is important for the dynamics of inflation and the output gap in the wake of persistent and permanent variation in the natural rate of interest. I present the evolution of the estimates of the Taylor-rule consistent- natural interest rate, and thus the associated path of the expectations of future inflation via the Fisherian relationship. The path of these two variables has implications for estimation of the NKPC.

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来源期刊

Australian Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.