Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"The Slope of the Phillips Curve and the Optimal Average Inflation Targeting Window","authors":"Denny Lie","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12573","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The slope of the Phillips curve has been shown to be flatter in recent years, including in Australia. How does this impact the optimal targeting window for a central bank conducting an average inflation targeting policy? This article shows that, in the face of the flattening of the Phillips curve, it is desirable to increase the targeting window. Doing so would lead to lower inflation fluctuations and to a non-trivial welfare gain. In a persistently higher-than-target inflation, high-interest-rate environment, this implies that the central bank should keep the nominal interest rate higher for longer.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"283-293"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12573","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Phillips Curve in Australia in the Era of Inflation Targeting","authors":"Debdulal Mallick","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia, like many other countries, experienced an unexpected surge in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic. This has renewed interest in the Phillips curve because of its important implications for monetary policy. We estimate the price Phillips curve in the post-inflation targeting period using the most recent state-level data. Identification relies on variation in regional demand that policymakers do not aim to stabilize. After controlling for cost-push shocks and equilibrium unemployment, we obtain a modest slope of the Phillips curve and, more importantly, we do not find any steepening of the Phillips curve in the post-COVID period. Without correct identification, the post-COVID Phillips curve would be steeper as documented for other countries including the United States. We also find that the slope gradually decreases with the level of unemployment.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"272-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12576","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Downing Lecture 2024: Where Does Wealth Come From?","authors":"Sandra E. Black","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12568","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>Recent decades have seen substantial increases in wealth inequality; this is particularly troubling given the high persistence of this inequality across generations. Yet, we have surprisingly little understanding of how and why wealth is transmitted across generations. Is this persistence driven by innate biological differences across families? Or is it driven by growing up in a different environment with access to different opportunities? In the 2024 Downing Public Lecture, Professor Sandra E. Black discusses the economics research that tries to answer this question, focusing on how one can disentangle the role of nature versus nurture</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"213-223"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12568","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142430062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Introduction to the Policy Forum on the Phillips Curve","authors":"Sarantis Tsiaplias","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12574","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In the context of the current economic climate in Australia, uncertainty about future economic growth and labour market conditions feeds into uncertainty about inflation, hence the path of future interest rates. There is tension, for example, between reducing interest rates early or maintaining interest rates at a ‘higher for longer’ level. The Phillips Curve is relevant to this tension since it provides information about the sensitivity of inflation to wider economic conditions. The three articles in this forum explore the dynamics of the Phillips Curve, with a particular focus on Australia.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the first article, Mallick uses state-level data to estimate the price Phillips Curve for Australia. A novel aspect of the research is that it examines the inflation–unemployment trade-off in Australia during the post-COVID period. Overall, the slope of the Phillips Curve with respect to unemployment is negative, albeit moderately. The article finds little evidence that the slope has steepened in the post-COVID period.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the second article, Lie ties the Phillips Curve to monetary policy, examining the importance of the inflation targeting window when the Phillips Curve is relatively flat. Given the Reserve Bank's (RBA) inflation targeting window of 2–3 per cent, Lie argues that the RBA effectively engages in ‘average-inflation-targeting’ (AIT). Given a flat Phillips Curve, Lie presents evidence that there are welfare gains stemming from the adoption of longer targeting windows for AIT. Given current economic conditions, this suggests that it may be appropriate to adopt a slower (monetary policy) responsiveness to news about lower inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the third article, Abbas studies the role of the natural rate of interest &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;*&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${&lt;mpadded xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"&gt;r&lt;/mpadded&gt;}_{t}^{* }$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; on the NKPC. Evidence is provided of significant time variation in &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mpadded&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;*&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msubsup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${&lt;mpadded xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"&gt;r&lt;/mpadded&gt;}_{t}^{* }$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, and t","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"271"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12574","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 r\u0000 *\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 ${r}^{* }$","authors":"Syed Kanwar Abbas","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this article, I argue that shifts in the natural rate of interest provide important insights for the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The deviation of the real interest rate from the natural interest rate (interest rate gap) captures the monetary policy stance, which is important for the dynamics of inflation and the output gap in the wake of persistent and permanent variation in the natural rate of interest. I present the evolution of the estimates of the Taylor-rule consistent- natural interest rate, and thus the associated path of the expectations of future inflation via the Fisherian relationship. The path of these two variables has implications for estimation of the NKPC.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"294-301"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142429261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Dual Risks of Digital Exclusion and Unaffordability of Telecommunications in Lower‐Income Australian Households","authors":"Ewa Orzechowska‐Fischer, Emily Rose, Robert Breunig","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12569","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse household telecommunications spending in Australia over the period 2006–2021 using Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data. We find the affordability of telecommunications is improving, and that telecommunications spending behaves like other core necessities, such as food. We find households in which members are not employed, have relatively low education, are elderly, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islanders or immigrants, speak English poorly, reside alone, or have long‐term health conditions are at heightened risk of digital exclusion due to lower spending on telecommunications. Households located in rural areas, with children or with members that work from home are at higher risk of digital exclusion as a consequence of overspending on telecommunications. Overall, the number of people at risk of digital exclusion from inadequate spending or overspending is quite small in Australia. The risks appear to have decreased during COVID‐19. Telecommunications is a core necessity but given the small number of people at risk of exclusion, policies addressing affordability should be highly targeted.","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"31 37","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141645628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors’ Report 2023","authors":"Ross Williams","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12566","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 2","pages":"206-207"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141286955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Programming Style: Suggested Guidelines for Writing Code","authors":"Joe Hirschberg,&nbsp;Jenny Lye","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12567","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12567","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since computer code has become elemental in current research it has become imperative that code should be written clearly and in good style. A program written in a clear, well-written style is easier to debug and is more useful to those who may want to replicate your work, extend it, speed it up or borrow from it. Clearly, written code is also a useful tool in the training of future researchers. In this paper, we suggest a set of style guidelines and we provide examples of how particular elements of code can be done using the statistical packages Stata, SAS and R. We also present recommendations for how to write code.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 3","pages":"302-313"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12567","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141383993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Medicare and Priority Populations: Structural and Place-based Considerations for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples and LGBTIQ+ Australians","authors":"Karinna Saxby,&nbsp;Mike Stephens","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12561","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12561","url":null,"abstract":"<p><i>The past 40 years of Medicare have seen effective policy for reducing income-related inequities in healthcare use. In this article, we describe how past and current Medicare policies have shaped, and continue to shape, healthcare access for other priority populations—Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and LGBTIQ+ populations. Drawing on empirical evidence, we also document the importance of structural-, place- and demographic-specific nuance when designing and implementing such policies. We conclude by offering recommendations on how Medicare can strive for better and more equitable access for these priority populations over the next 40 years and beyond</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 2","pages":"149-159"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12561","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140965156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Caring for Older Patients: Quality and Efficiency of Australia's Healthcare System","authors":"Jongsay Yong,&nbsp;Ou Yang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12558","DOIUrl":"10.1111/1467-8462.12558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With population ageing and increased longevity, Australia faces pressing policy issues on caring for older people. As Medicare turns 40, it is timely to assess how the system has been performing, and what changes are needed to modernise Medicare. This article examines the quality and efficiency of care using hospital administrative data. We find that the current system provides good quality and efficient care for older patients, except for those living in residential aged care homes. These patients receive lower quality care yet stay longer in hospitals. We suggest alternative approaches designed around bundled payments and a single budget holder to provide incentives for integrated team-based care.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"57 2","pages":"160-167"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12558","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140971508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}