Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"The Earnings Premium to a Bachelor's Degree in Australia","authors":"Michael Coelli,&nbsp;Jeff Borland","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70054","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Introduction</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The income returns to a bachelor's degree in Australia declined in the period from 2001 to 2016. We attempt to uncover the drivers of this decline.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our analysis investigates the income premium to a bachelor's degree through two lenses: (1) the effects of the demand for and supply of skill in the economy and (2) the effect of changes in the occupation composition of employment by education attainment and changes in weekly earnings within occupations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We find the 2001–2016 decline in returns is potentially explained by strong earnings growth in low-skill occupations, due to increases in real minimum and award wages, as well as possibly the mining boom. Downgrading of the occupations in which bachelor's degree holders worked was also a significant phenomenon from 1986 to 1996, but its (otherwise negative) impact on the income premium to a bachelor's degree was offset by higher relative growth in weekly earnings in occupations in which bachelor's degree holders were concentrated.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"266-285"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70054","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148871885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporary Employment and First-Time Homeownership in Australia","authors":"Inga Laß","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70055","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Questions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>How does temporary employment, that is, fixed-term contract and casual employment, affect the transition into first-time homeownership among young people in Australia? Does the effect differ by employment type, gender, relationship situation, or parents' socio-economic status?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Both fixed-term and casual contracts are associated with a reduced likelihood of entering homeownership; however, the association is significantly stronger for casual contracts. Associations are also significantly stronger among unpartnered people and (in the case of casual work) among men. By contrast, there are no differences by parental socio-economic status.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The employment and income insecurity associated with temporary contracts in combination with high house prices are a significant contributor to young people's low homeownership rates. Policies fostering transitions into permanent employment besides measures supporting first-time homebuyers, increasing housing supply and strengthening renters' rights could help improve the housing situation of young workers.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study used longitudinal data from 12,689 individuals aged 18–39 who were interviewed in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, covering the period 2001–2023. Discrete-time event history models were estimated that investigate the effect of contract type and various socio-demographic characteristics on entering homeownership in the following year.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"286-299"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70055","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148872047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Student Income Support and Participation in Higher Education: A Cohort Analysis","authors":"Deborah A. Cobb-Clark,&nbsp;Hayley Fisher,&nbsp;Sura Majeed","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The 2008 Bradley Review introduced major reforms to Australian higher education, including a demand-driven funding system and changes to student income support, aimed at expanding participation and improving equity outcomes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines how student income support receipt and higher education participation evolve across socioeconomic status groups following the implementatino of the Bradley Review recommendations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Materials and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We use linked administrative data to examine trends in student income support receipt, higher education participation and Bachelor degree completion between 2004 and 2024.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results and Discussion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We find that reforms to student income support successfully closed an access loophole for high-income students. However, receipt rates among students from low socioeconomic status backgrounds declined. Bachelor degree completion rates increased overall but with disproportionate increases among students from more advantaged backgrounds. These results are particularly salient in light of the 2024 Australian Universities Accord, which renews equity targets and proposes easing parental means testing for student income support.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our results suggest that further easing of parental means testing may not effectively target students most in need.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"239-255"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70042","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148872101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Parental Joblessness Matter for Children's Personality Traits?","authors":"Irma Mooi-Reci,&nbsp;Matthew Curry","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Economic insecurity in childhood may shape not only children's opportunities but also the traits that govern how they think, behave and engage with the world. Using 17 years of longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (<i>n</i> = 3792), this study examines whether sustained exposure to parental joblessness during childhood is linked to poorer personality trait outcomes in later years. We apply multilevel random-effects models to capture cumulative exposure to joblessness prior to personality assessment. The results show that prolonged parental joblessness is associated with lower levels of agreeableness, conscientiousness, extraversion and openness to experience, while effects on emotional stability are small and statistically insignificant. These associations are not evenly distributed: they are strongest for boys, younger children and those growing up in lower-income households. By linking parental employment histories to the formation of non-cognitive skills, this study identifies personality development as an important, and largely overlooked, mechanism through which childhood economic disadvantage may generate long-run inequality.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"256-265"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70046","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148871928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mark Wooden: Contributions to Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, HILDA and Inter-Disciplinary Research on Panel Data","authors":"Peter Dawkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70056","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews Mark Wooden's contributions over the last 40 years to Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, the HILDA Survey, and inter-disciplinary research relating to work, family and well-being. He has had an extraordinary academic career, including 23 years as Director of the HILDA survey. His early career was spent at the National Institute of Labour Studies (NILS) at Flinders University, where he undertook important and pioneering quantitative research on industrial relations research and had a significant impact on Australia's economic reform agenda. After his move to the Melbourne Institute, he led the establishment of the HILDA survey (Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia), which is a major national data asset for Australia. Mark's own prolific research has greatly increased our understanding of a wide range of topics, including especially: casual employment; the effect of income, wealth, education health and other factors on life satisfaction; jobless families; family dynamics and working arrangements; the effects of COVID 19 and lockdowns; and working from home.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"231-238"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70056","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148872094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labour Market and Income Trajectories of Award-Reliant Workers: Evidence From the HILDA Survey","authors":"Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70059","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An important group of interest for industrial tribunals in Australia is employees who are reliant on awards for their pay and other employment conditions. The HILDA Survey has collected information on the method of pay setting of employees since 2008, allowing identification of award-reliant workers. This paper describes the characteristics, employment, wages and incomes of award-reliant workers over the period 2008–2023 and examines trajectories in labour market and income outcomes. While award-reliant workers are on average low-paid and less likely to be employed full-time than other workers, it is found that they tend not to live in poor households and, moreover, have greater growth in full-time employment and wages than other employees. However, it is also found that their more favourable labour market trajectories do not, overall, translate into improvements in their economic wellbeing over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 3","pages":"300-311"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70059","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148872048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Propagation in Production","authors":"Thuy Hang Duong","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Inflationary pressures in an increasingly interconnected production system reflect not only aggregate or isolated sectoral shocks but also their propagation through supply-chain networks.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper examines the mechanisms underlying inflation transmission in a small open economy, using industry-level data for Australian manufacturing from 1995 to 2023. Inflation connectedness is quantified using both static and time-varying Diebold-Yilmaz forecast error variance decompositions, and linked to domestic and imported input-output structures.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Cross-industry spillovers are economically substantial and time-varying, accounting for 44%–61% of total producer price inflation variability. Linking these spillovers to production structures shows that inflation transmission is highly asymmetric and concentrated in upstream industries with high reliance on imported inputs, particularly fuel- and chemical-related sectors.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The results highlight the importance of production-network exposure for inflation dynamics and have implications for inflation monitoring, supply-chain resilience and policy design in small open economies.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 2","pages":"157-172"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148153531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Smoke to Stakes: Parental Smoking During Childhood as a Predictor of Adult Gambling Behaviour","authors":"Opoku Adabor","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Australia has one of the highest rates of gambling among developed countries, with important consequences for public health and well-being. Identifying the underlying drivers of gambling behaviour is therefore a key public policy issue, particularly in understanding how early-life experiences shape later-life risk-taking behaviours.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the long-term impact of childhood exposure to parental smoking on adult gambling behaviour using longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and explores underlying mechanisms. To address endogeneity concerns, it employs a heteroskedasticity-based instrumental variable approach alongside the Oster (2019) bounding approach.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Individuals exposed to parental smoking in childhood are significantly more likely to engage in gambling as adults. The relationship is mediated through several key mechanisms, including locus of control, educational attainment and labour market outcomes, indicating that early-life environments shape both preferences and constraints influencing later behaviour.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The findings provide evidence of intergenerational transmission of risky behaviours and suggest that early-life interventions, particularly those targeting family environments and child development, may reduce harmful gambling behaviours in adulthood. The findings also highlight the importance of preventive public health strategies to mitigate long-term behavioural risks.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 2","pages":"173-189"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148153556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application Fees and Gender Disparities in STEM Higher Education","authors":"Evelyn Xinhui Cheng,&nbsp;Ming Jiang","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Question/Issue</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Do college application fees contribute to gender disparities in higher education, particularly at STEM-focused institutions in decentralised admissions systems?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Findings/Insights</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using U.S. data from 2001–2020, we find that a 1% increase in application fees is associated with a 1.77 percentage-point decline in the female share of applicants at STEM-focused institutions, with larger effects at public universities. No comparable effect is observed at non-STEM institutions. Additional analysis indicates that application fees primarily alter the composition of applicants rather than overall application volumes, with male applications responding more strongly than female applications.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Practitioner/Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Although application fees are typically viewed as administratively neutral, our results suggest they can disproportionately deter women from applying to STEM-focused institutions. In decentralised systems common across the Asia-Pacific region, reviewing fee structures or introducing targeted fee waivers may help promote greater gender equity in STEM participation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods Used</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We use institution-level panel data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) and estimate fixed-effects models exploiting within-institution variation in application fees.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 2","pages":"145-156"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148153558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"On the Stability of Macroeconomic Relationships in Australia","authors":"Sune Karlsson,&nbsp;Pär Österholm","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we analyse whether two key macroeconomic relationships in Australia—Okun's law and the Phillips curve—have been stable over time. This is done by estimating hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models using quarterly data from 1978 to 2024. Model comparison based on marginal likelihoods indicates that Okun's law has been stable, whereas the Phillips curve has not. Using the preferred specification of the BVAR for the unemployment rate and inflation, we also calculate trend values for both variables. The model's trend unemployment rate at the end of the sample is approximately 5%; estimated trend inflation at the same point in time is close to the Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"59 2","pages":"208-225"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70060","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148153254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}