Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"Introduction to the Policy Forum on the NAIRU","authors":"Sarantis Tsiaplias","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This policy forum examines the Australian NAIRU, a key measure in describing the relationship between labour market slack and inflation, through four complementary lenses. First, Borland and Harris evaluate the RBA's dashboard-style, narrative approach to gauging labour-market slack. Second, Ballantyne and Cusbert estimate a state-space model that points to a current NAIRU near 5% and weaker feedback from past inflation. Third, Gross tests alternative state-space specifications, clustering the NAIRU in the 4%–5% range and supporting a 4.5% benchmark. Finally, Dawkins and Garnaut propose a pragmatic test: tighten conditions until wage pressure lifts inflation. Together, the papers compare methods, weigh the evidence, and set out the policy trade-offs in today's NAIRU debate.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"222-223"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing the NAIRU and Achieving Full Employment","authors":"Ross Garnaut,&nbsp;Peter Dawkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70033","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Genuine full employment is a pivotal economic objective around which others move. It has important implications for distributional equity and raises productivity. Keeping the economy at the highest rate of labour utilisation possible, without domestic inflationary pressures pushing inflation consistently above the target range, will tend to reduce the non-accelerating rate of unemployment (NAIRU) over time, raise labour force participation and raise national incomes and output. It also reduces the budget deficit by reducing government spending and raising government revenue.&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is wise to implement policies to reduce the NAIRU to the lowest level consistent with avoiding inflation accelerating above the target range and staying there, and to operate the economy with unemployment at the NAIRU. Various microeconomic policies can lower the NAIRU by improving the matching of labour demand and labour supply, and enhancing the performance of the education and training system. Macroeconomic policy can reduce the NAIRU by steadily increasing aggregate demand through moderate monetary and fiscal policy when inflation and inflation expectations are in the target range of 2–3 per cent (or approaching that range from above) and reducing unemployment until wage pressures in the labour market are starting to cause an acceleration of inflation persistently to above the target range. This was implicitly the approach to macroeconomic policy for a short period in the early 2020s when unemployment was reduced to 3.4 per cent.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We recommend adopting that approach now, alongside policies to improve the efficiency of the labour market. That is the best way to reduce the NAIRU and to find out what it is. The alternative approach, relying on econometric estimates using historical data, can only provide ballpark estimates of where the NAIRU has been in the past and may differ significantly from the lowest levels consistent with avoiding acceleration of inflation in current circumstances.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The NAIRU concept was introduced in the mid-1970s by Modigliani and Papademos (&lt;span&gt;1975&lt;/span&gt;) as an alternative to the older concept of the ‘natural rate of unemployment’. It was defined as the level of unemployment below which price expectations would fuel wage rises that led to accelerating inflation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Australian econometric estimates of the NAIRU in the 1980s and 1990s had increased in the 1970s and were of the order of 5–7 per cent (Gruen et al. &lt;span&gt;1999&lt;/span&gt;). It was understood that inflation expectations had increased and been built into wage setting. Labour market institutions at that time encouraged wage-price spirals. The Accord, followed by a period of labour market reforms and reductions in union power changed the wage-setting environment. This and sustained low inflation after the deep recession of 1990–91 produced lower econometric estimates, which have been in the range of 4–5 per cent in recent times (Australian Treasury &lt;span&gt;2","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"246-250"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The NAIRU in Australia","authors":"Isaac Gross","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and its application in Australia. We review its theoretical origins, international and domestic development, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's model-based estimation approach. Using three different NAIRU models, we evaluate whether recent labour market outcomes support a lower NAIRU than the Bank's published 4.5 per cent benchmark. The findings suggest that while some indicators point to a modest decline, the central estimate remains near the RBA's official figure.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"242-245"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The NAIRU Under Anchored Inflation Expectations","authors":"Alexander Ballantyne,&nbsp;Tom Cusbert","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The introduction of inflation targeting has seen long-term inflation expectations become much more anchored than when models of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) were conceived. This changes how we should interpret the NAIRU and inflation dynamics over the short-to-medium term. We update the model in Cusbert (2017) to allow for structural breaks upon the introduction of inflation targeting in Australia, finding long-term expectations have become relatively more important for inflation dynamics, and inflation has become less volatile. We use the model to conduct scenarios that highlight the importance of expectations formation for short-to-medium run inflation dynamics. The scenarios illustrate how anchored inflation expectations improve the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and change inference about the NAIRU – observing falling inflation or wage growth cannot be used to infer that unemployment is above the NAIRU.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"224-235"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editors' Report 2024","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The RBA's (Dashboard) Indicator Approach","authors":"Jeff Borland,&nbsp;David Harris","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews the RBA's use of indicators (descriptive information) to assess spare capacity and full employment in Australia's labour market. Three main topics are addressed: the choice of indicators; how to interpret the meaning of each indicator for assessing spare capacity; and how to aggregate information from the indicators to come to an overall judgement on the state of the labour market.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"236-241"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring Multidimensional Child Poverty in Australia","authors":"Sharon Bessell,&nbsp;Cadhla O'Sullivan,&nbsp;Trevor Rose,&nbsp;Megan Lang,&nbsp;Talia Avrahamzon","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>That poverty is multidimensional is now well established. Multidimensional assessment of poverty provides the opportunity to measure poverty in ways that inform policy and reflect what matters most to people experiencing it. However, challenges remain both in determining the dimensions of poverty that should be assessed and in ensuring relevant data are available to reliably measure across multiple dimensions. These challenges are particularly acute in regard to child poverty, and too often, child poverty is measured using proxies that are not appropriate or in ways that are not child-centred. Fifty years on from the Henderson Inquiry, Australia does not currently have an agreed-upon definition or measure of poverty (for children or adults). This creates an opportunity to develop a multidimensional measure of poverty that is child-centred and able to provide information to inform policies and services. In considering child poverty, we define a child as under the age of fifteen years. This article explores why it is important to measure the multidimensional nature of child poverty and considers the data that are currently available. This study has been conducted by the Children's Policy Centre at the Australian National University. All authors were employed by the Children's Policy Centre while undertaking this study.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S22-S35"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty in Australia: A Dual Measurement Approach","authors":"Melek Cigdem-Bayram,&nbsp;Cara Nolan,&nbsp;Ismo Rama,&nbsp;Nicole Bieske","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia's 2024 poverty rate is the highest it has been since 2001. Despite a lack of official poverty measures, recent data has shown that poverty affects 14.4% of the population including one in six children. These rates are higher than when Australia became a signatory of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 2015, steering it further off course from the goal of halving the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line by 2030. Without an agreed-upon national definition and measures of poverty, it is also hard to meaningfully track progress. Marking the 50th anniversary of the Henderson Inquiry First Main Report, which first called for a national poverty measure, this paper revisits that call with new urgency. Drawing on Australia's current context and international examples, it proposes a dual approach to poverty measurement – monetary and multidimensional – and presents empirical findings from an illustrative model applying both. The paper examines the relationship between monetary and multidimensional poverty and the insights gained by measuring the two side-by-side that neither can yield in isolation. It concludes with recommendations for a legislated national poverty measure, informed by lessons from Canada and New Zealand, which implemented similar frameworks in recent years.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S72-S85"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Material Deprivation in Australia: A Multidimensional Approach to Poverty Measurement 50 Years After Henderson","authors":"Yuvisthi Naidoo,&nbsp;Ciara Smyth","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines poverty through a material deprivation lens, drawing on three waves (2014, 2018 and 2022) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. It presents a detailed analysis of items considered essential and compares deprivation rates for these items among the general population and working-age income support recipient households. The findings show that income support recipient households experience deprivation rates approximately four times higher across most essential items compared to the general population. Analysis of the incidence of multiple deprivation alongside income-based poverty reveals that income support recipient households not classified as living in income poverty experience higher material deprivation rates than the general population classified as living in income poverty. The low overlap between income poverty and material deprivation underscores the need for a multidimensional approach to poverty measurement in Australia, particularly in the context of a prolonged cost-of-living crisis. By capturing those who are missing out despite not necessarily being classified as living in income poverty, material deprivation research deepens understanding of social and economic disadvantage and offers valuable guidance for targeted policy intervention. The findings of significant deprivation among households reliant on income support provide further evidence that Australian income support payments are abysmally inadequate.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S58-S71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring Poverty in Australia—The Role of Income","authors":"Peter Davidson,&nbsp;Yuvisthi Naidoo,&nbsp;Bruce Bradbury","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite Australia's long history of independent poverty research, successive governments have failed to adopt official poverty measures. There is broad agreement among poverty researchers and advocates that at least two types of poverty measures should be adopted: income-based measures and direct or multidimensional measures of living standards. This article focusses on income-based measures. It outlines key methodological choices faced by researchers including income definitions, the treatment of housing and other assets, and optimal poverty thresholds. To assess the validity of a poverty line set at 50% of median equivalent household disposable income, we compare the profile of people in households with incomes below this level and those experiencing multiple deprivation of essentials. The article concludes with broad guidance on the development of optimal income-based poverty measures for Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S45-S57"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}