{"title":"锚定通胀预期下的NAIRU","authors":"Alexander Ballantyne, Tom Cusbert","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70027","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n <p>The introduction of inflation targeting has seen long-term inflation expectations become much more anchored than when models of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) were conceived. This changes how we should interpret the NAIRU and inflation dynamics over the short-to-medium term. We update the model in Cusbert (2017) to allow for structural breaks upon the introduction of inflation targeting in Australia, finding long-term expectations have become relatively more important for inflation dynamics, and inflation has become less volatile. We use the model to conduct scenarios that highlight the importance of expectations formation for short-to-medium run inflation dynamics. The scenarios illustrate how anchored inflation expectations improve the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and change inference about the NAIRU – observing falling inflation or wage growth cannot be used to infer that unemployment is above the NAIRU.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"224-235"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The NAIRU Under Anchored Inflation Expectations\",\"authors\":\"Alexander Ballantyne, Tom Cusbert\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/1467-8462.70027\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n <p>The introduction of inflation targeting has seen long-term inflation expectations become much more anchored than when models of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) were conceived. This changes how we should interpret the NAIRU and inflation dynamics over the short-to-medium term. We update the model in Cusbert (2017) to allow for structural breaks upon the introduction of inflation targeting in Australia, finding long-term expectations have become relatively more important for inflation dynamics, and inflation has become less volatile. We use the model to conduct scenarios that highlight the importance of expectations formation for short-to-medium run inflation dynamics. The scenarios illustrate how anchored inflation expectations improve the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and change inference about the NAIRU – observing falling inflation or wage growth cannot be used to infer that unemployment is above the NAIRU.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46348,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Australian Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"58 3\",\"pages\":\"224-235\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Australian Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.70027\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Australian Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.70027","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The introduction of inflation targeting has seen long-term inflation expectations become much more anchored than when models of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) were conceived. This changes how we should interpret the NAIRU and inflation dynamics over the short-to-medium term. We update the model in Cusbert (2017) to allow for structural breaks upon the introduction of inflation targeting in Australia, finding long-term expectations have become relatively more important for inflation dynamics, and inflation has become less volatile. We use the model to conduct scenarios that highlight the importance of expectations formation for short-to-medium run inflation dynamics. The scenarios illustrate how anchored inflation expectations improve the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and change inference about the NAIRU – observing falling inflation or wage growth cannot be used to infer that unemployment is above the NAIRU.
期刊介绍:
An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.