Australian Economic Review最新文献

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The NAIRU in Australia 澳大利亚的NAIRU
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70031
Isaac Gross
{"title":"The NAIRU in Australia","authors":"Isaac Gross","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70031","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines the concept of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and its application in Australia. We review its theoretical origins, international and domestic development, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's model-based estimation approach. Using three different NAIRU models, we evaluate whether recent labour market outcomes support a lower NAIRU than the Bank's published 4.5 per cent benchmark. The findings suggest that while some indicators point to a modest decline, the central estimate remains near the RBA's official figure.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"242-245"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70031","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The NAIRU Under Anchored Inflation Expectations 锚定通胀预期下的NAIRU
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70027
Alexander Ballantyne, Tom Cusbert
{"title":"The NAIRU Under Anchored Inflation Expectations","authors":"Alexander Ballantyne,&nbsp;Tom Cusbert","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The introduction of inflation targeting has seen long-term inflation expectations become much more anchored than when models of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) were conceived. This changes how we should interpret the NAIRU and inflation dynamics over the short-to-medium term. We update the model in Cusbert (2017) to allow for structural breaks upon the introduction of inflation targeting in Australia, finding long-term expectations have become relatively more important for inflation dynamics, and inflation has become less volatile. We use the model to conduct scenarios that highlight the importance of expectations formation for short-to-medium run inflation dynamics. The scenarios illustrate how anchored inflation expectations improve the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment and change inference about the NAIRU – observing falling inflation or wage growth cannot be used to infer that unemployment is above the NAIRU.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"224-235"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The RBA's (Dashboard) Indicator Approach 澳大利亚央行的(仪表板)指标方法
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70030
Jeff Borland, David Harris
{"title":"The RBA's (Dashboard) Indicator Approach","authors":"Jeff Borland,&nbsp;David Harris","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews the RBA's use of indicators (descriptive information) to assess spare capacity and full employment in Australia's labour market. Three main topics are addressed: the choice of indicators; how to interpret the meaning of each indicator for assessing spare capacity; and how to aggregate information from the indicators to come to an overall judgement on the state of the labour market.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"236-241"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Editors' Report 2024 2024年编辑报告
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70025
{"title":"Editors' Report 2024","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70025","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction to “Introduction” 更正“引言”
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70029
{"title":"Correction to “Introduction”","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70029","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cigdem-Bayram, M. 2025. “Introduction.” <i>Australian Economic Review</i> 58: S8–S9. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70022.</p><p>In paragraph 2, line 3 of the Introduction, the author incorrectly stated that the Brotherhood of St Laurence commissioned the project. The corrected text should read: “The project was undertaken at the Melbourne Institute under Professor Ronald Henderson's direction.”</p><p>We apologize for this error.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145659487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Multidimensional Child Poverty in Australia 衡量澳大利亚多维儿童贫困
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70016
Sharon Bessell, Cadhla O'Sullivan, Trevor Rose, Megan Lang, Talia Avrahamzon
{"title":"Measuring Multidimensional Child Poverty in Australia","authors":"Sharon Bessell,&nbsp;Cadhla O'Sullivan,&nbsp;Trevor Rose,&nbsp;Megan Lang,&nbsp;Talia Avrahamzon","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p>That poverty is multidimensional is now well established. Multidimensional assessment of poverty provides the opportunity to measure poverty in ways that inform policy and reflect what matters most to people experiencing it. However, challenges remain both in determining the dimensions of poverty that should be assessed and in ensuring relevant data are available to reliably measure across multiple dimensions. These challenges are particularly acute in regard to child poverty, and too often, child poverty is measured using proxies that are not appropriate or in ways that are not child-centred. Fifty years on from the Henderson Inquiry, Australia does not currently have an agreed-upon definition or measure of poverty (for children or adults). This creates an opportunity to develop a multidimensional measure of poverty that is child-centred and able to provide information to inform policies and services. In considering child poverty, we define a child as under the age of fifteen years. This article explores why it is important to measure the multidimensional nature of child poverty and considers the data that are currently available. This study has been conducted by the Children's Policy Centre at the Australian National University. All authors were employed by the Children's Policy Centre while undertaking this study.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S22-S35"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty in Australia: A Dual Measurement Approach 澳大利亚的货币和多维贫困:双重测量方法
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70023
Melek Cigdem-Bayram, Cara Nolan, Ismo Rama, Nicole Bieske
{"title":"Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty in Australia: A Dual Measurement Approach","authors":"Melek Cigdem-Bayram,&nbsp;Cara Nolan,&nbsp;Ismo Rama,&nbsp;Nicole Bieske","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70023","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia's 2024 poverty rate is the highest it has been since 2001. Despite a lack of official poverty measures, recent data has shown that poverty affects 14.4% of the population including one in six children. These rates are higher than when Australia became a signatory of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 2015, steering it further off course from the goal of halving the proportion of the population living below the national poverty line by 2030. Without an agreed-upon national definition and measures of poverty, it is also hard to meaningfully track progress. Marking the 50th anniversary of the Henderson Inquiry First Main Report, which first called for a national poverty measure, this paper revisits that call with new urgency. Drawing on Australia's current context and international examples, it proposes a dual approach to poverty measurement – monetary and multidimensional – and presents empirical findings from an illustrative model applying both. The paper examines the relationship between monetary and multidimensional poverty and the insights gained by measuring the two side-by-side that neither can yield in isolation. It concludes with recommendations for a legislated national poverty measure, informed by lessons from Canada and New Zealand, which implemented similar frameworks in recent years.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S72-S85"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Material Deprivation in Australia: A Multidimensional Approach to Poverty Measurement 50 Years After Henderson 澳大利亚的物质剥夺:亨德森50年后的多维贫困测量方法
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70024
Yuvisthi Naidoo, Ciara Smyth
{"title":"Material Deprivation in Australia: A Multidimensional Approach to Poverty Measurement 50 Years After Henderson","authors":"Yuvisthi Naidoo,&nbsp;Ciara Smyth","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article examines poverty through a material deprivation lens, drawing on three waves (2014, 2018 and 2022) of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. It presents a detailed analysis of items considered essential and compares deprivation rates for these items among the general population and working-age income support recipient households. The findings show that income support recipient households experience deprivation rates approximately four times higher across most essential items compared to the general population. Analysis of the incidence of multiple deprivation alongside income-based poverty reveals that income support recipient households not classified as living in income poverty experience higher material deprivation rates than the general population classified as living in income poverty. The low overlap between income poverty and material deprivation underscores the need for a multidimensional approach to poverty measurement in Australia, particularly in the context of a prolonged cost-of-living crisis. By capturing those who are missing out despite not necessarily being classified as living in income poverty, material deprivation research deepens understanding of social and economic disadvantage and offers valuable guidance for targeted policy intervention. The findings of significant deprivation among households reliant on income support provide further evidence that Australian income support payments are abysmally inadequate.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S58-S71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144870014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring Poverty in Australia—The Role of Income 衡量澳大利亚的贫困——收入的作用
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70019
Peter Davidson, Yuvisthi Naidoo, Bruce Bradbury
{"title":"Measuring Poverty in Australia—The Role of Income","authors":"Peter Davidson,&nbsp;Yuvisthi Naidoo,&nbsp;Bruce Bradbury","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite Australia's long history of independent poverty research, successive governments have failed to adopt official poverty measures. There is broad agreement among poverty researchers and advocates that at least two types of poverty measures should be adopted: income-based measures and direct or multidimensional measures of living standards. This article focusses on income-based measures. It outlines key methodological choices faced by researchers including income definitions, the treatment of housing and other assets, and optimal poverty thresholds. To assess the validity of a poverty line set at 50% of median equivalent household disposable income, we compare the profile of people in households with incomes below this level and those experiencing multiple deprivation of essentials. The article concludes with broad guidance on the development of optimal income-based poverty measures for Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 S1","pages":"S45-S57"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Melbourne Institute Data Lab, a Secure Access Environment for Informing Future Social and Economic Policy 墨尔本研究所数据实验室,为未来社会和经济政策提供信息的安全访问环境
IF 1 4区 经济学
Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.70018
Chaminda Rajeev Samarage, A. Abigail Payne
{"title":"The Melbourne Institute Data Lab, a Secure Access Environment for Informing Future Social and Economic Policy","authors":"Chaminda Rajeev Samarage,&nbsp;A. Abigail Payne","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Policy analysts and academics play a critical role in informing policy design, implementation and evaluation. They apply their understanding of current social and economic issues, test theoretical frameworks and present new ideas that are a part of the ecosystem for promoting and sustaining efficient and equitable delivery of government programs. Enabling these roles through access, curation and analysis of data from multiple sources is a critical component of a well-developed analytic framework. This is particularly imperative as it relates to sensitive and proprietary data. Making these data more widely available unlocks many public benefits, but only if the risks associated with sharing data are properly managed. We introduce the Melbourne Institute Data Lab (the MIDL), a secure access environment that supports customisation of information security controls to balance between privacy and security, and user experience to support data-driven research for informing policy. MIDL is based in a university setting, which is an important feature given that universities are long-standing institutions that are independent and trusted for their endeavour to undertake non-biased research.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"259-271"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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