Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"Effects of Government Regulation of Diesel and Petrol Prices on GDP Growth: Evidence From China","authors":"Markus Brueckner,&nbsp;Haidi Hong,&nbsp;Haiyan Lin,&nbsp;Joaquin Vespignani","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper presents estimates of the effects that government regulation of diesel and petrol prices has on GDP growth. We specify VAR models with asymmetric effects of positive and negative changes in the regulatory prices. We estimate the VAR models on quarterly data from China's national accounts statistics during the period Q1 1998 to Q4 2018. Our main findings are that: (i) negative growth rates of regulatory diesel and petrol prices significantly reduce GDP growth; (ii) positive growth rates of regulatory diesel and petrol prices have small positive effects on GDP growth which are not significantly different from zero.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 4","pages":"299-315"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145659519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Productivity Measurement With Big Data: A Data-Driven Approach Capturing Firm Heterogeneity","authors":"Shipei Zeng,&nbsp;Kevin J. Fox","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop a new method for estimating production frontiers that allows the identification of sources of firm productivity variability. Our novel approach enhances the understanding of productivity growth and its sources, and the role of firm dynamics on growth. The empirical results using Australian firm-level data demonstrate that the approach can provide important insights, which can better inform policy formulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 4","pages":"289-298"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70014","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145659612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Working From Home: The Australian Experience","authors":"Inga Laβ,&nbsp;Mark Wooden","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70010","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article reviews the experience in Australia with working from home (WFH). It briefly examines what is meant by WFH, highlighting the distinction between extension and replacement WFH and the importance of identifying those who work full days from home. It then presents evidence on the changing incidence of WFH in Australia and the types of workers who are most likely to work from home following the pandemic. It shows that around one in four workers regularly worked at least one full day from home in 2023, with hybrid work arrangements being more prevalent than working all days from home. Furthermore, WFH was concentrated in high-skilled white-collar office jobs. Finally, the growing body of research on the impacts of WFH on both workers and employers is reviewed. While there are both benefits and drawbacks, the Australian evidence mostly points to beneficial outcomes of WFH for workers. Far less is known about the impacts on employers, with Australian research being especially scarce.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"154-162"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Have Changes in the Australian Labour Market This Century Contributed to Rising Voter Disaffection?","authors":"Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70012","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Drawing on HILDA Survey data, this article provides an overview of changes in the Australian labour market since 2001 with a view to identifying whether these changes have the potential to contribute to a rise in disaffection in the community. Over the period since 2001 as a whole, employment and wage growth have been relatively broadly experienced across the community. However, some deterioration in labour market outcomes is evident for young men, and there is tentative evidence of rising disaffection among low-wage employees. Moreover, while the post-pandemic period has seen strong employment growth, real after-tax wages declined appreciably between 2021 and 2023, although these wage declines have been broadly felt.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"140-153"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70012","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perception and Reality of Energy Poverty in Australia: Do They Shape Voting Intentions?","authors":"Kushneel Prakash,&nbsp;Sefa Awaworyi Churchill,&nbsp;Russell Smyth","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines how energy poverty shapes voting intentions in Australia. We compare support for the major parties (Labor and the Liberal National Coalition) with support for the minor parties. We also examine how energy poverty influences two-party preferred voting intentions between the two major parties (Coalition and Labor). We find that energy-poor households have 8 percentage points lower probability of supporting either major party compared to alternatives and that energy poor households are 1.4 times more likely to intend to vote for right wing populist minor parties than other minor parties or independents. When comparing Labor and the Coalition directly, energy poverty reduces support for Labor by 3.7 percentage points, reflecting Labor's stronger climate policies that voters likely associate with higher energy costs, while the Coalition's fossil fuel-aligned stance appears to resonate more with energy stressed households. The findings contribute to economic voting theories by demonstrating how sector-specific financial stress can reshape political behaviour.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"131-139"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disaffection in Australia","authors":"John P. de New,&nbsp;Elizabeth Webster","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70013","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Support for minor parties and independents at Australian Federal elections more than doubled in two decades from 15% in 2007 to 33% in 2025. Relatedly, there has been consistent rises in popularist parties around the world, especially right-wing parties, this century. This includes Italy, France, Greece, Sweden, Netherlands, Hungary, Austria, Germany, USA, Poland, Belgium, and for a short period, the UK. In this policy forum, we examine whether this drift from centralist Australian political parties parallels the trends and drivers present in other Western economies.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Populism typically presents enticingly simple answers to address complex problems. The binary populist narrative of the ‘pure people’ against the ‘corrupt elite’ undermines democratic systems and erodes the rule of law (Hisarciklioglu et al. &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;; Aktas &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;). Studies suggest several motives: cultural conservativism (coupled with anti-immigration); distrust of institutions and elite experts; and economic insecurity from declining employment opportunities, globalism and poor career paths. These can be summarised as the loss of one's self-perceived ‘entitled’ status (Ali et al. &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;; Friedrichs &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;; Aktas &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The less economically secure strata of society, those on low wages; the long-term unemployed, and people from declining industries, see elections as an opportunity to punish the political and economic mainstream. This anger is often fuelled by candidates who play into this antagonism – somewhat reminiscent of Europe post-WWI. Aktas (&lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;) claims that the disaffected strata in Europe are frustrated with mainstream political parties' responses to economic and social problems.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite Australia's largely absolute rejection of extreme right platitudes in the 2025 federal election, which resembled right-wing politicians in the USA and Canada, it is clear that Australia must remain vigilant. Botha et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) argue that although Australia has not yet experienced the extreme polarisation and democratic erosion observed elsewhere, current trends put Australia on a similar trajectory. The three studies in this Policy Forum use unit record (person-level) data over an extended period to identify the disaffected citizens who are attracted to the minor parties and to investigate which factors appear to be driving these views.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The first study by Prakash et al. (&lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;) finds a negative association between experiencing energy poverty and voting intentions. They find that energy-poor households are 8 percentage points less likely to support either major party compared to alternatives and that energy-poor households are 1.4 times more likely to vote for right-wing populist minor parties compared with other minor parties or independents. They believe that experiencing energy poverty reduces support for renewable climate policies due to the perception that they raise","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"115-116"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rational Disaffection? The Economic Origins of Minor-Party Voting in Australia","authors":"Ferdi Botha,&nbsp;William Nolan,&nbsp;Viet Hoang Nguyen,&nbsp;Kyle Peyton","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Support for minor parties and independents in Australia doubled from 15% in 2007 to 30% in 2022, ending decades of relative electoral stability. Using nearly 30 years of monthly consumer survey data, we examine whether this realignment is rooted in economic disaffection. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), growth in real GDP and GDP per capita has slowed markedly, while consumer sentiment—reflecting individuals' retrospective and prospective evaluations of their personal finances and the broader economy—has fallen to record lows. This increase in economic pessimism is evident across major demographic groups, suggesting that disaffection is broad-based rather than confined to particular constituencies. Voters with negative economic expectations are significantly more likely to support minor parties or independents, and this association has strengthened since the mid-2010s. The Greens have gained disproportionate support from younger voters, while other minor parties and independents have attracted more support from older cohorts. These findings show that declining economic prosperity—both real and perceived—has played an important role in Australia's post-GFC shift away from the two major parties. This is consistent with the view that voters are responding rationally to unmet policy demands and long-standing dissatisfaction with government performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"117-130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"House Price Changes: A Perspective of Inhomogeneous Multiple Structural Breaks","authors":"Fenglin Tian,&nbsp;Yanpeng Li,&nbsp;Boping Tian","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article proposes an inhomogeneous multiple structural breaks model, with unknown mean changes or variance changes in observations. The asymptotic properties of the likelihood ratio statistics are demonstrated, which converge to a Gumbel distribution. Furthermore, the rule of information criterion and Bayesian model selection are used to detect inhomogeneous multiple change points through the binary segmentation and random interval technique. Extensive simulation experiments are provided to illustrate the promising performance of our method. The real residential property prices for Australia and China are employed in this model for empirical analysis, which illustrates the performance of the proposed model.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 4","pages":"277-288"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145659501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nudging Alcohol Moderation via Excise Tax Reform: The Case of Beer in Australia","authors":"Kym Anderson","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Australia taxes alcohol consumption more than most other affluent economies. A switch to low-alcohol beer has been encouraged in Australia by it being subject to a lower rate of excise tax than regular beer, but no such incentive applies to packaged mid-strength beer. Would more or less alcohol be consumed if the tax rates for mid-strength beer were lowered, for example to those for low-strength beer? This study estimates changes in demand that could result from such a policy change. It finds that alcohol consumption from each of beer, wine and spirits could fall, but by only a little more than 1% in total.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"211-221"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic, Social and Health Outcomes of the Transgender and Gender-Diverse Population in Australia","authors":"Mark Wooden,&nbsp;Taylor Ey,&nbsp;Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using data from the 2022 round of the HILDA Survey, regression models are estimated where the outcomes are variables that influence or are correlated with personal well-being, and the main independent variable distinguishes persons who identify as transgender or gender-diverse (TGD) from persons whose gender identity matches their sex assigned at birth (cisgender). Twelve outcomes covering the labour market, income and finances, crime victimisation, and health and subjective well-being are examined. TGD persons are found to fare worse than cisgender persons in all cases. For example, the differences between TGD persons and cisgender men and cisgender women in personal income are estimated to lie in the range of 59%–61% and 26%–33%, respectively. Similarly, the likelihood of a transgender person being the victim of physical violence is estimated to be 4.3 and 2.4 times greater than that of cisgender men and cisgender women, respectively. The relatively small size of the TGD subsample, however, means that results are not always statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. This is especially so when comparing TGD persons with cisgender women. Overall, these results strongly suggest that TGD persons in Australia face systemic disadvantages.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"199-210"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}