Australian Economic Review最新文献

{"title":"The ATO ALife Family File","authors":"Daniel Fischer,&nbsp;Justin Holland,&nbsp;Marc Chan,&nbsp;Cain Polidano,&nbsp;Ha Vu,&nbsp;Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70004","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ATO ALife Family File (ALife-Family) combines rich family connections and administrative superannuation and tax data that opens new opportunities for understanding joint financial decisions between partners, intergenerational income mobility and some aspects of wealth mobility. In this study, we describe the construction of the ALife Family File, compare it to the HILDA Survey and demonstrate its value as a tool for intergenerational analysis. Our analysis shows that the characteristics of couples in ALife-Family are consistent with those in HILDA but that the former has the advantage of better coverage of superannuation and income data. Preliminary analysis highlights both opportunities and challenges of using ALife-Family when examining intergenerational issues.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"163-172"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Case for Randomised Trials (and Why Big Data Does Not Supersede Randomisation)","authors":"Andrew Leigh","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70003","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Question/Issue</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>With the growing availability of large-scale datasets, is randomisation still necessary for identifying causal impacts?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Research Findings/Insights</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Randomised trials, by using luck to assign participants to treatment and control groups, reliably provide a credible counterfactual that ensures observed differences reflect causal impacts. In contrast, observational data often produces misleading correlations that fail to replicate under experimental conditions. Therefore, the increased availability of big data does not make randomisation obsolete.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Practitioner/Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>I propose five approaches to increase the quality and quantity of randomised policy trials: encourage curiosity in yourself and those you lead; seek simple trials, especially at the outset; ensure experiments are ethically grounded; foster institutions that push people towards more rigorous evaluation; and collaborate internationally to share best practice and identify evidence gaps.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods Used</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper employs a qualitative synthesis of historical and contemporary examples, illustrating the superiority of randomised trials over purely observational methods. By drawing comparisons across disciplines—economics, health, and social policy—it highlights how nonexperimental approaches can fall short and explores how big data can be a complement to rigorous randomised trials.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"251-258"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Governance Quality Under Economic Uncertainty: Global Insights","authors":"S M Woahid Murad,&nbsp;Arifur Rahman","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70001","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the impact of economic uncertainty on governance quality using a cross-country panel data set from 1993 to 2022. Governance quality is measured through control of corruption, regulatory quality, government effectiveness and political stability. Results show that economic uncertainty significantly weakens governance, with pronounced effects on political stability and government effectiveness, particularly in higher-income countries. Robustness checks, including inverse probability weighting and alternative uncertainty measures, confirm these findings. The study underscores the critical role of economic stability in mitigating corruption, reducing political instability and supporting Sustainable Development Goal 16 by fostering stronger governance globally.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 3","pages":"181-198"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145181536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Post and Hold Regulation on Retail Petroleum Prices","authors":"Christopher P. Adams","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article uses data from Byrne and de Roos (2019) to understand the pricing behaviour of petrol stations under WA's post and hold policy. The article uses annual average pricing from 2008 to estimate demand parameters for petrol brands in WA. The estimated parameters are used to predict profit margins under the assumption that petrol stations were colluding. Analysis suggests that the observed profit margins of stations in WA between 2009 and 2012 are inconsistent with noncollusive pricing. The article asks whether similarities and differences between the WA policy and the proposed Victorian policy will lead to similar pricing behaviour.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"109-114"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144245086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Battlers and Billionaires: The Updated Story of Inequality in Australia by Leigh, Andrew 2024","authors":"Roger Wilkins","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.70000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.70000","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Economic inequality is an important issue deserving of the considerable attention it now receives among applied economics researchers, reflecting the reality that the distribution of economic output is almost as important to community wellbeing as the total quantity of output. While many questions remain unanswered, there is now a substantial body of Australian research on the topic and a correspondingly improved understanding of the nature, causes and consequences of inequality in Australia.</p><p>However, the translation of this body of knowledge to the general public was somewhat lacking until Leigh's <span>2013</span> book, Battlers and Billionaires (Leigh <span>2013</span>), which provided an accessible overview of the evolution of inequality in Australia, its drivers and consequences, and proposals for ways to reduce it. It therefore provided a valuable resource for informing public discourse on this important subject.</p><p>In Leigh (<span>2024</span>), the author provides an update to Leigh (<span>2013</span>). As would be expected of an “update,” much of the material in this book is the same as in the original book. The main differences are the addition of more recent data and a few extra graphs, discussion of new research published since the first book was published, a few tweaks to the stories told and the way the material is explained, and the addition of two recommendations for “what is to be done.” The general story and the key messages have not changed and therefore the book is probably targeted at people who have not read the first book.</p><p>As with Leigh (<span>2013</span>), this is a highly enjoyable read, with Leigh complementing the well-researched empirical facts with engaging and often entertaining historical facts, stories and anecdotes. The book is written for a general audience, with technical details and sources consigned to endnotes. It succeeds in being accessible to non-experts, although I suspect much of it will nonetheless be somewhat heavy going for many readers.</p><p>The book contains eight chapters, the first three of which describe the evolution of inequality in Australia from pre-colonization to the present day. Chapter 4 then examines the drivers of inequality, mainly focusing on recent decades. Chapter 5 discusses the consequences of inequality; Chapter 6 addresses the issue of intergenerational economic mobility and Chapter 7 discusses community attitudes to inequality. He concludes in Chapter 8 with a list of recommendations for addressing inequality.</p><p>In broad terms, the story told in the first three chapters of the evolution of inequality in Australia is correct: inequality levels and trends pre-federation are uncertain, but inequality was probably very high over most of the nineteenth century. Inequality then decreased between federation and the 1970s, and then subsequently increased.</p><p>The description of inequality trends is most balanced over the period to the early 1980s, when data avai","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 2","pages":"173-176"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.70000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Jobs for Economics PhDs in Government","authors":"Catherine de Fontenay","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12589","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>One possible career path for an economics PhD is a role in government. About 37% of PhD students obtain jobs in government after graduation. This article details a few personal reflections on the types of opportunities, the rewards of such opportunities and the skills required.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"53-56"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Rise of Social Media and the Fall in Mental Well-Being Among Young Australians","authors":"Andrew Leigh,&nbsp;Stephen Robson","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12584","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using multiple sources, we document a substantial worsening in the mental well-being of Australians aged 15–24 years, as measured by surveys, self-harm hospitalisations and suicide deaths. The shift began around 2007–2010 and is worse for young women than for young men. Although several factors could be to blame, we present six pieces of evidence suggesting that smartphones and social media may have played a causal role in damaging the mental health of young Australians.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"33-38"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143564777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Australian Economy in 2024–2025: Living and Housing Affordability","authors":"Guay Lim,&nbsp;Viet Nguyen,&nbsp;Tim Robinson,&nbsp;Sarantis Tsiaplias","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12586","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The economy grew at a well below-trend pace in 2023/2024. Inflation fell, and the unemployment rate edged higher, but these changes were not sufficient to convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting the cash rate. In 2024, the federal Budget included cost-of-living financial support, as well as measures to support housing affordability, but living standards continued to slip as real GDP per capita fell. Overall, the Misery Index for Australia remains high and ongoing uncertainty about the United States and Chinese economies are downside risks to the outlook for 2024/2025.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"5-15"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12586","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leigh, Andrew (2024) The Shortest History of EconomicsBlack Inc. Books","authors":"Laura Panza","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12592","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;In his book, Andrew Leigh (&lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;) provides a concise overview of the development of economic thought and its historical impacts. The narrative connects major economic milestones, starting as early as the Agricultural Revolution, stretching all the way to the modern globalized economy. The book is structured chronologically, touching on key themes such as the evolution of global trade, technological advancements and the interplay between markets and societal changes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;The Shortest History of Economics&lt;/i&gt; identifies the Agricultural Revolution as the starting point for the story of economics. This perspective aligns with the conventional narrative that the transition from hunter-gatherer societies to settled agricultural communities was the foundation for economic systems, enabling surplus production, trade and the rise of organized markets. While this viewpoint is supported by arguably most economic historians, it has faced significant criticism, particularly in recent scholarship. One notable counterargument comes from &lt;i&gt;The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity&lt;/i&gt; by Graeber and Wengrow (&lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;), who challenge the deterministic view that agriculture inherently led to hierarchical societies, economic specialization, and the development of state systems. The authors argue that the focus on agriculture as the root of economic systems oversimplifies humanity's past and downplays examples of complex social and economic systems that existed before widespread farming. For instance, they highlight evidence of sophisticated trade networks, social stratification, and even monumental construction among hunter-gatherer societies, challenging the idea that these features are exclusive to agrarian economies. Leigh's reliance on the traditional narrative is likely a deliberate choice to ensure accessibility, which is understandable given the book's brevity. However, incorporating alternative perspectives would have enriched the discussion, providing a more comprehensive view for readers new to the history of economics.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The subsequent chapters delve into the rise of markets during the Industrial Revolution, a pivotal period that reshaped economies and societies globally. Leigh highlights how technological advancements, such as the steam engine, mechanized textile production, and improved transportation networks, spurred unprecedented economic growth and productivity. These innovations not only revolutionized industries but also facilitated the shift from localized economies to interconnected markets, enabling the large-scale production and distribution of goods. The focus on mass production, symbolized by the factory system, introduced new efficiencies but also created challenges, including labour exploitation, urbanization pressures, and stark wealth inequalities. Leigh uses these historical developments to illustrate how technological progress and market expansion fundamentally transformed economic systems, p","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"39-40"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12592","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Notes for PhDs in Economics and Finance on Getting a Job","authors":"Kenneth W. Clements","doi":"10.1111/1467-8462.12588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12588","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The notes start with a description of the market for PhDs in economics and finance. Then follows some suggestions and comments on an important part of the academic market, the job-market paper – its nature and the pros and cons of co-authorship. Finally, I discuss the role of the oral presentation, also important for a job in academe, as well as in other areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":46348,"journal":{"name":"Australian Economic Review","volume":"58 1","pages":"41-47"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1467-8462.12588","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143565453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}