菲利普斯曲线的斜率和最佳平均通胀目标窗口期

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12573

Denny Lie

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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来，包括澳大利亚在内，菲利普斯曲线的斜率已被证明更加平坦。这对实施平均通胀目标政策的中央银行的最佳目标窗口有何影响？本文表明，在菲利普斯曲线趋于平坦的情况下，增加目标窗口是可取的。这样做会降低通胀波动，并带来不小的福利收益。在通胀持续高于目标、高利率的环境下，这意味着中央银行应在更长时间内保持较高的名义利率。

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The Slope of the Phillips Curve and the Optimal Average Inflation Targeting Window

The slope of the Phillips curve has been shown to be flatter in recent years, including in Australia. How does this impact the optimal targeting window for a central bank conducting an average inflation targeting policy? This article shows that, in the face of the flattening of the Phillips curve, it is desirable to increase the targeting window. Doing so would lead to lower inflation fluctuations and to a non-trivial welfare gain. In a persistently higher-than-target inflation, high-interest-rate environment, this implies that the central bank should keep the nominal interest rate higher for longer.

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来源期刊

Australian Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.