Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment最新文献

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Analysis of impact mechanism of the Yangtze River Delta integration upon county-level air pollution 长三角一体化对县域大气污染的影响机制分析
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.007
Dan Li , Rongrong Fang , Yuhang Liu , Cheng Tang , Sanmang Wu , Yalin Lei , Jiaman Li
{"title":"Analysis of impact mechanism of the Yangtze River Delta integration upon county-level air pollution","authors":"Dan Li ,&nbsp;Rongrong Fang ,&nbsp;Yuhang Liu ,&nbsp;Cheng Tang ,&nbsp;Sanmang Wu ,&nbsp;Yalin Lei ,&nbsp;Jiaman Li","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of China’s most economically dense regions with the most dynamic county-level economies. The YRD’s success in addressing air pollution at the county level directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study utilizes panel data of 151 counties in the YRD from 2003 to 2022. It regards the expansion of members of the YRD Urban Economic Coordination Council as a quasi-natural experiment. This study analyzes the influence of regional integration on county-level air pollution using the difference-in-differences approach, the synthetic difference-in-differences methodology, and spatial econometrics. Our findings indicate that: (1) regional integration can significantly reduce air pollution at the county level; (2) the environmental impact of regional integration is heterogeneous, influenced by regional differences, administrative constraints, and industrial foundations; and (3) regional integration reduces air pollution through advancing industrial structure and technological innovation, along with spatial spillover impacts. Therefore, policymakers should attach importance to air quality governance in counties, deepen regional integration strategies, optimize industrial structures, enhance technological innovation, and strengthen collaborative environmental governance to continuously promote regional sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 77-93"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Underlying drivers of temporal-spatial energy consumption from the perspective of the government in China 政府视角下中国能源消费时空驱动因素分析
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.004
Chong Xu , Huiyu Yang , Xiaoqin Xie
{"title":"Underlying drivers of temporal-spatial energy consumption from the perspective of the government in China","authors":"Chong Xu ,&nbsp;Huiyu Yang ,&nbsp;Xiaoqin Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy consumption (EC) is a core factor in maintaining sustainable development; little is known about the drivers of temporal-spatial EC changes and the corresponding inequality from the perspective of government, thereby weakening the policy implications for energy conservation and emission reduction. To fill this gap, this study uses spatial-temporal logarithmic mean Divisia index models and extended Theil index inequality models to investigate the drivers of EC changes and inequality, considering the scale and structure of governmental environmental expenditure (EG) across 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2021. The findings reveal that: First, EG acts as a positive driver of total EC, while industrial investment efficiency and fiscal expenditure pressure exert negative effects. Second, disparities in EG functions act as a negative driver, accounting for a 4.56% decrease in average interprovincial EC gaps. Third, China’s EC inequality demonstrated an overall upward trajectory from 0.074 to 0.093 over the period, mainly driven by positive contributions from inequalities in EG and the fiscal expenditure structure. This study highlights the importance of optimizing the government expenditure structure and scale in formulating policies for sustainable EC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 41-53"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of manufacturing agglomeration on PM2.5 and spatial spillover in prefecture-level cities in China 中国地级市制造业集聚对PM2.5的影响及空间溢出
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.006
Dan Wang , Hongxiao Zhao , Yun Wang , Yu Cheng
{"title":"Effects of manufacturing agglomeration on PM2.5 and spatial spillover in prefecture-level cities in China","authors":"Dan Wang ,&nbsp;Hongxiao Zhao ,&nbsp;Yun Wang ,&nbsp;Yu Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agglomeration supports the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, and its associated resource and environmental effects play a crucial role in driving green economic development. Based on data from prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019, this study employs the inverse distance weighting method, the bivariate local indicator of spatial association model, the spatial Durbin model, and other techniques to explore the relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, and to assess the impact of its manufacturing agglomeration. Four correlation patterns are observed: high–high, low–low, high–low, and low–high. Among these, high–high and low–low patterns dominate in terms of number of cities. These correlation patterns demonstrate strong temporal stability, with a clear “Matthew effect”. The effect of manufacturing agglomeration on PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels is significantly negative and helps reduce concentrations regionally, indicating the need to further enhance agglomeration levels regionally. However, it can increase PM<sub>2.5</sub> levels in neighboring areas due to a siphon effect, and the impact of varies across regions. Compared with levels in 2005–2013, the significance of the relationship between manufacturing agglomeration and PM<sub>2.5</sub> weakened in the 2013–2019 period. Accordingly, this study proposes countermeasures and policy recommendations aimed at strengthening regional collaborative governance and inspiring differentiated agglomeration strategies to support sustainable economic development in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 67-76"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptation needs and adaptation options vary among different stakeholders in high-latitude protected areas: A case study of the Qiangtang Protected Area in China 高纬度保护区不同利益相关者的适应需求和适应方案存在差异——以中国羌塘保护区为例
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.009
Jianguo Wu, Mengdi Fu
{"title":"Adaptation needs and adaptation options vary among different stakeholders in high-latitude protected areas: A case study of the Qiangtang Protected Area in China","authors":"Jianguo Wu,&nbsp;Mengdi Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is essential to understand how adaptation needs and options differ among stakeholders in protected areas (PAs) to effectively implement climate change (CC) adaptation strategies. Using the Qiangtang PA in Xizang as a case study, this research examines CC adaptation needs and options from the perspectives of stakeholders across multiple administrative levels, including provincial, prefectural, county authorities, 73 protection stations, and 13 364 pastoralists residing within the PA. The findings show that stakeholders at the provincial level, as well as those from the Ali and Naqu prefectures and six counties, place greater emphasis on institutional and resource-related needs than on other categories (attention score: 7.0–9.3 vs. 5.0–7.0). In contrast, stakeholders from the 73 protection stations prioritize technological and capacity-building needs more strongly than other types (attention score: 8.0–9.0 vs. 4.0–8.0). The 13 364 pastoralists assign the highest importance to social needs relative to other categories (attention score: 9.0–9.5 vs. 3.0–8.0). Most of the eight existing protection measures were found to indirectly support broader climate adaptation efforts. In particular, protective actions addressing fire, pests, and weather-related disasters can be classified as autonomous adaptation, while other measures generate outcomes that enhance adaptation capacity under specific conditions. Adaptation options, grouped into three main types and 13 subcategories, differ across stakeholder groups, although substantial overlap exists between these options and current protective actions, including ecosystem-based adaptation strategies, adaptation-related practices, autonomous adaptation measures, and emergency interventions. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of all stakeholders—especially staff from the 73 protection stations and the 13 364 pastoralists—in the effective implementation of adaptation actions within the PA.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 110-128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Incorporating multiple scenarios and landscape ecological risk to optimize ecological security patterns: A Wei River Basin case study 基于多情景和景观生态风险的渭河流域生态安全格局优化研究
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.008
Xueting Wu, Jinghu Pan
{"title":"Incorporating multiple scenarios and landscape ecological risk to optimize ecological security patterns: A Wei River Basin case study","authors":"Xueting Wu,&nbsp;Jinghu Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the influence of human activities, landscape fragmentation in the Wei River Basin (WRB) has become increasingly severe. Upstream development has intensified soil erosion, and industrial and agricultural pollution in the middle reaches has degraded water quality. Rapid urbanization has further caused habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. Collectively, these challenges threaten human well-being and hinder sustainable development, making the construction and optimization of an ecological security pattern (ESP) urgently necessary. However, existing studies often fail to systematically integrate future landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment with ESP optimization. This study evaluated regional LER using the “ecological patches–ecological resistance surface (ERS)–ecological corridor” framework, combined with land-use predictions under three development scenarios, and optimized the ESP by adjusting the ERS and extracting ecological corridors. The results indicate that the LER in the WRB follows an “inverted N” distribution, with low-risk areas concentrated in forested mountain regions and high-risk areas mainly in cultivated land subject to intensive human activity. Across future scenarios, ESPs showed fewer ecological breakpoints and improved landscape connectivity than the 2020 baseline. Scenario-based differences emerged in the spatial configuration of ERS adjustments, with the ecological protection scenario yielding the lowest LER and most favorable ESP. This study demonstrates the deep integration of multi-scenario simulation with LER assessment, providing a new framework for ESP optimization. The findings have guiding significance for ecological protection and coordinated development in the WRB and offer a novel paradigm for sustainable development in ecologically fragile basins worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 94-109"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Empirical analysis of fostering inclusive green growth: A double machine learning-based quasi-natural experiment 促进包容性绿色增长的实证分析:基于双机器学习的准自然实验
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.011
Yu Yuan, Jing Liu
{"title":"Empirical analysis of fostering inclusive green growth: A double machine learning-based quasi-natural experiment","authors":"Yu Yuan,&nbsp;Jing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inclusive green growth (IGG) is a crucial pathway to high-quality economic development, with standardization serving as a key enabler. Standardization plays a critical role in reducing coordination costs and improving resource allocation efficiency by facilitating rule harmonization, factor integration, and collaborative governance. Examining IGG from a standardization perspective helps clarify the mechanisms through which economic, environmental, and social objectives can be jointly realized, and offers new insights into the institutionalized and sustainable pursuit of multiple development goals. However, how standardization promotes IGG by coordinating economic growth, environmental performance, and social equity remains insufficiently explored in the existing literature. Using panel data from 283 prefecture-level Chinese cities (2012–2021), this study treats the comprehensive standardization reform pilot as a quasi-natural experiment and applies a double machine-learning framework to test whether standardization promotes IGG. The analysis further explores the mediating roles of technological innovation, green finance, and employment quality, and examines heterogeneity across geographic location, resource endowment, industrial base, and city hierarchy. It also evaluates the regional coordination effects of standardization. Results show that standardization significantly advances IGG, though its impact varies by regional and structural characteristics. Standardization enhances IGG by strengthening innovation, expanding green finance, and improving job quality. Moreover, it helps bridge geographic divides, narrow interregional disparities, and enhance coordination. These findings offer empirical evidence for policymakers to design targeted standardization strategies that support sustainable and equitable urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 138-150"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Decoding China’s urban transformation: Multiscale analysis of urban spatial structures and their influencing factors (2007–2023) 解读中国城市转型:城市空间结构及其影响因素的多尺度分析(2007-2023)
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.005
Yan Wang , Kai Liu
{"title":"Decoding China’s urban transformation: Multiscale analysis of urban spatial structures and their influencing factors (2007–2023)","authors":"Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investigating urban spatial structures (USSs) and their influencing factors at different spatial scales is crucial for promoting sustainable urban transformation. Based on nighttime light datasets and the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI), this study analyzes USS characteristics in China from 2007 to 2023 on two spatial scales—prefecture-level cities and urban agglomerations. It also explores structural influencing factors, including the economy, infrastructure, society, and government intervention. We find that: (1) HHI values for both cities and urban agglomerations exhibit a decreasing trend, indicating a USS for both that is evolving toward polycentricity; (2) economic development promotes a polycentric structure at both spatial scales, whereas government intervention drives a monocentric structure; and (3) postal and communication infrastructure have conflicting effects on USSs, encouraging a monocentric structure at the city scale but fostering polycentricity at the urban agglomeration scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 54-66"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The spillover effect of separating household waste on water conservation: A perspective of self-determination theory 生活垃圾分类对节水的溢出效应:一个自决理论的视角
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.010
Jianguo Wang , Yanyan Kong
{"title":"The spillover effect of separating household waste on water conservation: A perspective of self-determination theory","authors":"Jianguo Wang ,&nbsp;Yanyan Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Taking the view that pro-environmental behaviors can have spillover effects, this study examines how household waste separation (an environmental behavior with a high degree of difficulty) impacts consumers’ water-saving efforts (an environmental behavior with a low degree of difficulty). We assess the mediating effects of self-efficacy and ego depletion in this relationship and the moderating effect of the need for self-determination in the mediated relationships. The results show separating household waste significantly enhances consumers’ water-saving efforts. Both self-efficacy and ego depletion partially mediate the relationship between household waste separation and efforts to reduce water consumption. Specifically, if consumers engage in pro-environmental behaviors based on their internal, rather than external sense of moral identity, their sense of self-efficacy increases after separating household, which motivates them to engage in subsequent water-saving behaviors. In addition, consumers’ sense of ego depletion declines when they engage in household waste separation, which increases subsequent water-saving behavior. Compared to low-level self-determination needs, high-level self-determination needs weaken the positive impact of household waste separation on consumers’ perceived self-efficacy, but strengthens the negative impact of household waste separation on consumers’ perceived ego depletion and promotes subsequent water-saving behavior. These findings suggest policymakers should pay attention to the spillover effects pro-environmental behaviors and use household waste separation policies to promote other pro-environmental behaviors such as reducing water consumption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 129-137"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of land finance on labor mobility willingness 土地财政对劳动力流动意愿的影响
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.012
Yu Jin , Caiyun Lv , Lianying Fan
{"title":"Impacts of land finance on labor mobility willingness","authors":"Yu Jin ,&nbsp;Caiyun Lv ,&nbsp;Lianying Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study empirically examines how land finance in destination and origin cities affects willingness to engage in labor mobility and explores the underlying mechanisms. Using a two-way fixed effects model, we match macro data from 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2020 with data from the 2018 China Migrant Dynamic Survey (CMDS). The results are as follows: First, land finance in destination cities inhibits labor mobility willingness, while land finance in origin cities and labor mobility willingness have a U-shaped relationship, decreasing initially and then increasing. Second, local governments’ dependence on land finance increases local housing prices and suppresses investment in non-economic public goods in the administrative area, thereby inhibiting labor mobility willingness; however, this also increases investment in economic public goods, attracting labor mobility willingness. Third, labor force age weakens the impact of land finance in origin cities on labor mobility willingness; however, age does not affect the impact of land finance in destination cities on labor mobility willingness. Fourth, land finance increases laborers’ willingness to settle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 151-164"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trends, drivers, and reduction pathways for food-related greenhouse gas emissions in China: 1961–2050 中国粮食相关温室气体排放趋势、驱动因素及减排途径:1961-2050
IF 4.8 4区 环境科学与生态学
Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.002
Jinyu Han , Jiansheng Qu , Tek Narayan Maraseni , Dai Wang , Jianpeng Zhang , Li Xu , Yujie Ge , Dingye Wu
{"title":"Trends, drivers, and reduction pathways for food-related greenhouse gas emissions in China: 1961–2050","authors":"Jinyu Han ,&nbsp;Jiansheng Qu ,&nbsp;Tek Narayan Maraseni ,&nbsp;Dai Wang ,&nbsp;Jianpeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Li Xu ,&nbsp;Yujie Ge ,&nbsp;Dingye Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cjpre.2026.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China’s food system are a major environmental concern; however, studies quantifying their drivers and future projections remain limited. This study uses structural decomposition analysis and growth curve models to assess food-related GHG trends from 1961 to 2020, identify key drivers and their contributions, and project emissions for 2050 under six economic and population scenarios. It also proposes reduction pathways to help China achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Animal and plant foods are categorized into 14 groups based on the similarity of their emission coefficients. China’s total food-related GHG emissions rose tenfold, from 351.7 to 3 719.8 million tons CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent (CO<sub>2</sub>e)/year, between 1961 and 2020. Per-capita emissions increased from 532.1 to 2 584.4 kg CO<sub>2</sub>e/year. Emissions from plant-based foods grew from 435.0 to 824.6 kg CO<sub>2</sub>e/year, while animal-based emissions surged from 97.1 to 1 759.8 kg CO<sub>2</sub>e/year, with animal products contributing more owing to their higher emission coefficients. Key drivers include rising food intake, increasing demand for animal-based foods (especially red meat), and population growth. Scenario analyses predict that emissions will peak at 3 826.2 million tons CO<sub>2</sub>e/year in 2031 (low economy-low population) and 3 971.0 million tons CO<sub>2</sub>e/year in 2039 (high economy-medium population). Compared with Australian, Indian, and Japanese diets, Chinese diets exhibit lower per-capita emissions than Australia and India but have higher emissions than in Japan. Adhering to China’s national dietary guidelines could reduce Chinese per-capita food-related GHGs by 31.5%, and optimized diets could lower them by 45.3%. This study provides valuable insights for Chinese policymakers to reduce food-related GHG emissions, refine national dietary guidelines, and raise public awareness regarding the food system’s environmental impact, thus encouraging people to follow sustainable diets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45743,"journal":{"name":"Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment","volume":"24 1","pages":"Pages 14-26"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147636797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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