Global greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century: Complex network, driver pattern and economy-based interaction

Abstract

Achieving a reduction in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions requires collaborative efforts from the international community; however, a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics (i.e., complex emission networks and driver patterns) and the mutual influence of gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions remains limited at a global level in the 21st century, which is not conducive to forming a consensus in global climate change negotiations and formulating relevant policies. To fill these gaps, this study comprehensively analyzes the complex network and driver pattern of GHG emissions, as well as the corresponding mutual influence with GDP for 185 countries during 2000–2021, based on social network analysis, the logarithmic Divisia decomposition approach, and panel vector autoregression model at global and regional levels. The results indicate that significant heterogeneity and inequality exist in terms of GHG emissions among regions and countries in different geographical areas and economic income levels. Additionally, GDP per capita and GHG emission intensity are the largest positive and negative drivers, respectively, affecting the increase in global GHG emissions. Furthermore, key countries, such as Germany and Canada, that could serve as coordinating bridges to strengthen collaboration in the global emission network are identified. This study highlights the need to encourage key participants in the emission network and foster international cooperation in governance, energy technology, and economic investment to address climate change.