China’s development path for intermittent renewable energy power generation: The influence of diffusion factors

With the proposed carbon-neutrality targets, intermittent renewable energy will become increasingly significant for the power sector in the future. It is vital to study its development paths, particularly for wind power and photovoltaics, while considering constraints on diffusion potential. Using learning curves, dynamic programming, and Bass models, this study analyzes technological diffusion trends to determine the most cost-effective development route for intermittent renewable energy power generation in China by 2060. This study simplifies reality by examining the individual diffusion processes of wind and photovoltaic power, focusing on the self-diffusion characteristics of the two technologies. The study assumes that self-diffusion is the primary driver of future development and describe the influence of multiple factors. The study finds that supportive policies are key drivers of development in the early stages of intermittent renewable energy deployment, especially for photovoltaics. The current diffusion scale of photovoltaics has a greater positive impact on its future development than that of wind power due to lower costs. In the long term, the phased goal for 2030 is projected to be met ahead of schedule, and the majority of future intermittent renewable energy output is expected to come from photovoltaics. The rapid development phases of photovoltaic and wind power conclude at similar times, but the maximum diffusion potential of photovoltaics is higher than that of wind power. Investment constraints and technological levels affect the initial and middle phases of the development path, but their effects are limited. The capacity of the power grid remains the key constraint in the entire research field.