Analysis of the process and outcomes of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Global Stocktake is an important component of the global climate governance mechanism. The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2023 has clarified collective progress and identified the paths to bridge gaps, but its understanding in the academic and policy communities is not yet systematic and comprehensive. Therefore, this study adopts textual analysis, timeline analysis, and game theory methods to comprehensively analyze the process and outcomes of the first Global Stocktake. The study finds that: ① The first Global Stocktake underwent three stages, including scientific enhancement, technical dialogue, and political consensus, and took more than five years to reach the final outcome of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Consensus in which the 1.5 °C temperature control target anchored in the scientific enhancement stage set the general tone for the stocktake. ② The first Global Stocktake focused on three specific areas—mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation and support—to fully realize the signaling effect. ③ The most prominent outcome of the stocktake is the new consensus on “transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems”, which specifies the direction for countries to update their nationally determined contributions in 2025 and for the international community to conduct the second Global Stocktake in 2028. ④ The four groups of countries, namely, developed countries, emerging economies, hydrocarbon-exporting-oriented economies, and climate-vulnerable countries, have different interests and hold distinct core positions, which constrain each other but advance the global stocktake process as a whole. ⑤ The outcomes of the stocktake are comprehensive and systematic, with as many as 196 consensus items; however, the detailed targets for the three major focus areas are unclear and rigid, and need to be strengthened in the second global stocktake. The study suggests that, on the one hand, China needs to strengthen its policy research in the light of the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake and prepare for the submission of updated nationally determined contribution in 2025 for 2035, which should be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature control target. On the other hand, China should continue to take advantage of the zero-carbon industry to lead global climate change action and expand national development right and international communication capacity.