Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Disrupted Academic Careers: The Returns to Time Off after High School","authors":"N. de Roux, Evan Riehl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3690567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3690567","url":null,"abstract":"This paper asks how academic breaks after high school affect individuals’ college and labor market outcomes. We exploit a policy that altered academic calendars in two regions of Colombia, which caused thousands of high school graduates to have to wait an extra semester to start college. Using administrative data and a synthetic control design, we show that the academic break caused many students to forgo enrolling in college at all. High-ability students who did not attend college had lower earnings seven years later, but forgoing college had little effect on earnings for lower-ability students.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"4 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113971827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"To Kill a Black Swan: The Credibility Revolution at CEDE, 2000-2018","authors":"J. Castilla","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3684727","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3684727","url":null,"abstract":"The growing displacement of theory and other forms of wide-ranging knowledge of social phenomena by empirical research methods in economics is widely noted by economists and historians of economic knowledge. Less attention has been devoted, however, to understand the materialization of such changes in the scientific practices in a specific research center. This article studies the recent transformations in the epistemological practices at CEDE, a research center that is both, highly influential in the production of economic knowledge in Colombia, and does not belong to the core economics research centers that lead the debates regarding the recent changes in the discipline. I use a machine learning technique called Topic Modeling, interviews to CEDE researchers, and exegesis of papers to identify a shift in the production of knowledge in microeconometrics at CEDE during the years 2000 and 2018. I explain this shift by characterizing two sets of epistemological practices. The first one, usually present during the years 2000 and 2006, establishes a complementary relationship between wide-ranging knowledge (theory included) and data estimation techniques in order to achieve a broad comprehension of the phenomenon under study. The second one, usually present during the years 2009 and 2018, prioritizes data estimation techniques over theoretical models and contextual knowledge in order to achieve a causal comprehension of one variable in the phenomenon under study. Because epistemological practices make truth claims, each one establishes its own criteria about what constitutes a valid research through a distinct way of replicating a scientific experiment. The shift I identify implies a recent tendency to disdain research works that cannot make a strong causal inference.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121397082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"¿Interactuar o no interactuar? Un estudio experimental sobre expresiones de género (To Interact or Not Interact? An Experimental Study About Gender Expressions)","authors":"María José Herrera","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3682869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3682869","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este trabajo estudia cómo cambia la disposición a interactuar entre pares cuando observan diferentes expresiones de género y la identidad es información privada. Para esto, se realizó un experimento de campo en el que los participantes debían elegir con quién desarrollar una tarea teniendo, únicamente, información de unas de sus expresiones de género y unas características generales. El experimento replica el modelo de este estudio en el que un jugador señaliza su identidad con una expresión de género femenina o una masculina, y el otro jugador decide si interactúa o no con dicho jugador. Este trabajo encuentra evidencia sugestiva de que la disposición a interactuar entre pares sí cambia cuando cambia la combinación de expresiones de género que estos observan de los demás. En particular encuentra que, mientras la disposición a interactuar con personas que presentan una vestimenta masculina está determinada solo por la vestimenta, la disposición a interactuar con personas que tienen vestimenta femenina está determinada por la vestimenta y si reportan una habilidad considerada femenina o masculina.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This paper examines how observing di↵erent gender expressions changes the will to interact between peers, when the gender identity is private information. We conduct a field experiment in which participants chose which peers to work with on a task, based solely on information inferred from few of their peer’s gender expressions and general characteristics. The experiment follows our model, in which one player signals their identity with a feminine o masculine gender expression, and the other player decides whether to interact or not with such player. This paper finds suggestive evidence that the will to interact between peers does depend on the combination of gender expressions of such peers. Specifically, we find that the will to interact with a peer whose outfit is considered masculine is only determined by their outfit; while the will to interact with a person who has a feminine outfit is determined by the ability that person reports, and whether it is considered a feminine or masculine ability.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130037263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"El efecto de las transferencias sobre el recaudo fiscal local en Colombia, 2000-2015 (The Effect of Transfers on Local Tax Collection in Colombia, 2000–2015)","authors":"Mario Chacón, Fabio Sánchez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3676839","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3676839","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Estudiamos el impacto de la descentralización en la capacidad fiscal local en Colombia. Específicamente, estimamos el efecto de mediano plazo del gran incremento en transferencias de origen nacional durante la década de los noventas sobre las fuentes principales del recaudo local. Encontramos que el incremento en transferencias tuvo un efecto diferenciado sobre las fuentes de recaudo: tuvo un efecto negativo sobre la expansión del recaudo predial mientras que tuvo un efecto positivo sobre el crecimiento del recaudo de industria y comercio de los municipios. En el recaudo agregado estos efectos se cancelan por lo que no hay una relación significativa entre las transferencias y la evolución del recaudo local. Esta dinámica esta explicada principalmente por municipios relativamente menos pobres y con alta competencia política antes de la introducción de las reformas descentralizadoras de los noventa. Argumentamos que la descentralización fiscal creo una potencial divergencia en la cual municipios con mejores servicios públicos e instituciones políticas se beneficiaron desproporcionalmente del incremento en recursos fiscales externos. Por último, proveemos evidencia empírica novedosa del mecanismo político por el cual el incremento en transferencias fiscales tuvo un efecto negativo de mediano y largo plazo en el recaudo predial.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> We study the impact of the decentralization on local fiscal capacity in Colombia. Specifically, we estimate the medium-term effects of an increase in the fiscal transfers received by subnational governments during the nineties on the main sources of local revenue. Our main finding is that the increase in transfers had differential impact on revenues; they had a negative impact on the expansion of property taxes while having a positive effect on the growth of taxes levied on industry and commerce. In the aggregate these effects cancel out. Moreover, these effects are mainly explained by municipalities having low poverty rates and high political competition prior to the introduction of the decentralizing reforms in the 1990s. We argue that these reforms potentially created a divergence in which municipalities having better public services and accountability benefit disproportionately from the increase in fiscal resources. Lastly, we provide original evidence on a political mechanism through which the increased in fiscal transfers lowered <br>property taxes in the medium and long-term.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133563585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Access to Agricultural Credit: The Heterogeneous Effects of Collective Action","authors":"Allison Benson, J. Faguet, María del Pilar López-Uribe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3677998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3677998","url":null,"abstract":"Collective action allows individuals to overcome market and state failures, something particularly relevant in rural areas and highly imperfect markets such as agricultural credit. We analyze data on over 2.3 million rural producers in Colombia, as well as on an original subnational database with over 15,000 municipality-year observations, to explore the relation between collective action and access to agricultural credit. We focus on collective action in the form of Rural Producer Organizations (RPOs), and find that it increases the likelihood of an individual accessing agricultural credit, as well as access to credit at the aggregate (municipal) level; that is, there is a positive general equilibrium effect, rather than a crowding-out of credit between RPO members and non-members. These effects are heterogeneous according to the type of credit (source and size). For small farmers, the aggregate positive effect operates only via access to public credit. For large farmers the effect is also positive, but this time via private credit only. Medium-scale farmers, by contrast, see no aggregate increases in credit access. Heterogeneity appears driven by structural segmentation in the credit market across farmer type and source, which is replicated rather than counteracted by the collective action effect. Hence the potential impact of collective action on development outcomes is dependent on contextual conditions","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"266 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116241668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La decisión de desmovilizarse de las FARC-EP antes del Acuerdo Final para la Paz. Una aproximación desde la teoría de la acción colectiva (Deciding to Demobilize From the FARC-EP Before the Final Agreement for Peace a Collective Action Theory Approach)","authors":"Lizeth Melissa Molina Alvarez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3673172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3673172","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> La organización FARC-EP fue reconocida, en la academia y en los medios de comunicación, como la guerrilla más longeva y grande en Latinoamérica. Este trabajo explora la decisión de sus integrantes a desmovilizarse o permanecer en ésta, antes del Acuerdo Final para la Paz. El marco teórico construido alrededor del problema de decisión y los datos de desmovilizaciones me permiten concluir que las motivaciones de los integrantes de las FARC-EP iban más allá del factor más estudiado y divulgado: la búsqueda de rentas. A partir de la literatura, propongo que la organización ofreció incentivos pecuniarios, bienes básicos, y no pecuniarios, satisfacción militar, política y con la vida en la organización, e implementó coerción, para incentivar la permanencia; mientras que el gobierno generó presión militar, creo ofertas para la desmovilización y promovió la influencia de actores externos para incentivar la desmovilización.<br><br>Los datos revelan que el tipo de desmovilización (grupal o individual) y los factores motivantes están asociados con variables contextuales, determinadas por la organización, así como características sociodemográficas de los integrantes. En el análisis de datos agregados desde 1994, encuentro que en 2008 se reporta el porcentaje desmovilizaciones más alto, lo cual coincide con la mayor crisis de la organización. A su vez, sugiero la existencia de una relación negativa entre las variables proxy de beneficios pecuniarios e incentivos militares con el porcentaje de desmovilizados, y una relación positiva con las variables proxy de presión del Estado. En el análisis de datos micro desde 2008, encuentro que, por ejemplo, en el periodo de negociaciones las desmovilizaciones grupales fueron menos probables y las acciones externas a la organización, como la presión militar y los programas de desmovilización, perdieron importancia como motivantes mientras que factores internos, como la coerción y la desmoralización militar, cobraron relevancia.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The FARC-EP was recognized, by the academy and the media, as the oldest and largest guerrilla in Latin America. This work investigates how the FARC-EP members’ made the decision to demobilize or remain in the group, prior to the Final Peace Agreement. Through a theoretical framework and empirical data, I find that the FARC-EP members’ motivations went beyond the criminal rent-seekers theory. Based on the literature, I propose that the organization encouraged its members’ permanence through pecuniary and non-pecuniary incentives, basic goods, military, political and life satisfaction, and coercion; while the government generated military pressure, created offers for demobilization and promoted the influence of external actors.<br><br>The data revealed that the type of demobilization (group or individual) and the motivating factors are associated with contextual variables and the sociodemographic characteristics of the members. The analysis of","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131933300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Efecto de ingresar a la carrera docente oficial sobre el salario y la salud (The Effect to Be Admitted to Public Teacher Career on the Salaries and Health)","authors":"Hernando Bayona-Rodríguez, J. Sebastian Melo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3624437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3624437","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Esta investigacion estudia el efecto de ser admitido en la carrera docente oficial sobre los salarios y la salud. Para esto, emplea informacion de la primera convocatoria para la carrera docente en 2004 en Colombia, despues de la reforma del estatuto docente, e informacion de los docentes diez anos despues. Esta investigacion utiliza un diseno de Regresion Discontinua como estrategia de identificacion para estimar el efecto causal (ITT y TOT), que aprovecha la exogeneidad generada por el umbral minimo requerido para ser aceptado en la carrera docente oficial. Los resultados sugieren que ser admitido en la carrera docente oficial tiene efecto en salarios mas alto, un mayor numero de meses laborales por ano, una mayor probabilidad de continuar en el sector educativo y ningun efecto en tener un trabajo adicional. En relacion con resultados en salud, se encuentra que los maestros admitidos en la carrera docente oficial se enferman mas que sus pares que no ingresaron, medidos en numero de dias de incapacidad; ademas, son los maestros de mayor edad quienes se enferman mas. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: In this paper, we study the effects of entry into the public teacher career on salaries and health. We use information from the first cohort of teachers that entered into the public schools in 2004 in Colombia, just after the passing of a reform on teacher careers, and information about teacher outcomes ten years later. We uses a Discontinuous Regression design as identification strategy to estimate the causal effect (ITT and TOT), which takes advantage of the exogeneity generated by the minimum threshold required to be accepted into the public teacher career. Our results suggest that to be admitted into the public teacher career has an effect on higher salary, representing up to one month additional pay per year, a greater probability of continuing in the educational sector, and no effect on having an additional job. In relation to health outcomes, we found that teachers admitted into the public teacher career get sicker than their peers who are not admitted, measured in number of days of leave; in addition we found that older teachers get sicker more often.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130016799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Political Competition and State Capacity Evidence from a Land Allocation Program in Mexico","authors":"L. Fergusson, Horacio Larreguy, J. Riaño","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3613175","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3613175","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We develop a model of the politics of state capacity building undertaken by incumbent parties that have a comparative advantage in clientelism rather than in public goods provision. The model predicts that, when challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents have the incentive to prevent investments in state capacity. We provide empirical support for the model’s implications by studying policy decisions by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that affected local state capacity across Mexican municipalities and over time. Our difference-in-differences and instrumental variable identification strategies exploit a national shock that threatened the Mexican government’s hegemony in the early 1960s.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"647 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117103998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Erythroxylum en el foco: revisión interdisciplinaria de un género ignorado (Erythroxylum in Focus: An Interdisciplinary Review of an Overlooked Genus)","authors":"D. A. Restrepo, E. Saenz, O. A. Jara-Muñoz, Iván F. Calixto-Botía, Sioly Rodríguez-Suárez, Pablo Zuleta, Benjamin G Chavez, J. A. Sánchez, J. D’Auria","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3596187","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596187","url":null,"abstract":"El genero Erythroxylum contiene especies utilizadas por los pueblos indigenas de America del Sur desde antes de la domesticacion de las plantas. Dos especies, la E. coca y E. novogranatense, han sido utilizadas durante miles de anos, en parte por su contenido de alcaloides de tropano. Si bien el abuso de la cocaina ha impactado a la sociedad en multiples formas, estas especies y sus parientes silvestres contienen recursos aprovechables para el beneficio de la humanidad en forma de alimentos, productos farmaceuticos, productos fitoterapeuticos y otros metabolitos de alto valor. En esta resena, describimos el estado actual del conocimiento sobre los miembros del genero y los avances recientes en el campo de la biologia molecular y la bioquimica.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126205548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perfiles de Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencia para Colombia 2014 (National Transfer Accounts Profiles for Colombia 2014)","authors":"B. Urdinola, J. Tovar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3596160","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3596160","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> La estimación de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencia para Colombia en 2014 permite establecer que el ciclo de vida superavitario del país se estrecha cada vez más, dejando muy poco espacio para aprovechar el bono demográfico. En parte, se explica por los bajos ingresos de los colombianos y se exacerba con la baja cobertura del sistema pensional, que sólo cubre a un cuarto de las personas en edad de retiro en 2014. Ese perfil tiene consecuencias negativas sobre el recaudo fiscal, pues depende altamente de los adultos entre 25 y 55 años, que además son el grueso de quienes hacen transferencias privadas a otros hogares o a su mismo hogar, generando una presión económica sobre estos adultos jóvenes, que será insostenible una vez comience el envejecimiento en menos de dos décadas en el país.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> The estimation of the National Transfer Accounts for Colombia in 2014 allows us to establish that the country's surplus life cycle is increasingly narrowing, leaving very little space to take advantage of the demographic bonus. In part, it is explained by the low income of Colombians and is exacerbated by the low coverage of the pension system, which only covers a quarter of people of retirement age in 2014. This profile has negative consequences on tax collection, since it highly depends on adults between 25 and 55 years old, who are also the bulk of those who make private transfers within or across households, generating economic pressure on these young adults, which will be unsustainable once aging begins in less than two decades.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132820047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}