Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"What Drives Global Value Chain Participation?","authors":"Saunok Chakrabarty, R. Chanda","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3946183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3946183","url":null,"abstract":"Cross-border production sharing has intensified in recent decades, leading to the formation and spread of global value chains (GVC). Using a dataset containing more than 150 countries over 1990-2018, our paper tries to identify what drives backward GVC participation and forward GVC participation at the country and aggregate trade levels. We complement this general exercise with a gravity model analysis of the determinants of bilateral foreign value-added in exports. The econometric analyses highlight structural factors such as aggregate income, level of industrialization and distance to economic hubs as highly significant for GVC trade. Foreign direct investment inflows strongly influence GVC participation and are stronger for backward participation. Trade agreements and their depth boost GVC participation, although the expansionary effect of deeper trade agreements on GVC trade decreases over time. We replicate our general analysis for developed and developing countries to account for the differential effects of GVC drivers at different levels of development. We ensure that our gravity estimates are theoretically and analytically consistent by using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator and incorporating multilateral resistance.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132128472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacto de Ganancias Potenciales de Traslado sobre Decisión de Cambio de Régimen Pensional en Colombia (The Impact of Potential Gains on the Decision of Pension Regime’s Switch in Colombia)","authors":"Fabián Mauricio Rincón Jaimes","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3919830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3919830","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este documento evalúa el efecto de las ganancias potenciales asociadas al traslado sobre las decisiones de cambio de régimen pensional en Colombia. El sistema pensional actual genera diferencias en los beneficios pensionales esperados dependiendo del régimen pensional elegido: Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad (RAIS) o Régimen Solidario de Prima Media con Prestación Definida (RPM). Se evalúa si estas diferencias son determinantes en la selección del régimen pensional definitivo de los afiliados. Se emplean datos individuales de ahorro pensional y traslados definitivos de afiliados a RAIS en 2015. Para la identificación del efecto, se explotan disposiciones normativas que generan no linealidades en los beneficios potenciales del traslado. Se encuentra que un incremento de 10 puntos porcentuales (p.p.) en la diferencia de la tasa de reemplazo potencial entre el RPM y el RAIS genera un incremento estadísticamente significativo de 1,2 p.p. en la probabilidad de traslado definitivo a RPM, sobre una base promedio de traslados definitivos de 10,4%. Para el diseño de reformas pensionales en Colombia, se sugiere considerar el incremento en el costo fiscal asociado a la existencia de ganancias de traslado hacia el RPM, para generar mecanismos que procuren la sostenibilidad del sistema y la progresividad en la asignación de subsidios. English Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of potential gains from switching on the decision of pension regime’s switch in Colombia. The current pension system generates differences in the expected pension benefits according to the chosen pension regime: “Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad” (RAIS) or “Régimen Solidario de Prima Media con Prestación Definida” (RPM). I assess whether these differences are decisive in the selection of the definitive pension regime of the affiliates. I use individual data on pension savings and definitive switches of RAIS affiliates in 2015. To identify the effect, I exploit regulatory provisions that generate non-linearities in the potential gains from the switch. I find that an increase of 10 percentage points (p.p.) in the difference in the potential replacement rate between RPM and RAIS generates a statistically significant increase of 1.2 p.p. in the probability of definitive switch to RPM, on a base rate of 10.4%. For the design of pension reforms in Colombia, it is suggested to consider the increase in the fiscal cost associated with the existence of gains from switching to RPM, to generate mechanisms that ensure the sustainability of the system and progressivity in the allocation of subsidies.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131224628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Right to Health and the Health Effects of Denials","authors":"S. Bhalotra, M. F. Fernández Sierra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3911472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3911472","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the health costs of supply-side barriers to accessing medical care. The setting is Colombia, where citizens have a constitutional right to health care, but insurance companies that manage delivery impose restrictions on access. We use administrative data on judicial claims for health as a proxy for unmet demand. We validate this using the register recording all health service utilization, estimating that a one standard deviation increase in judicial claims is associated with pervasive decreases in utilization rates of between 0.25 and 0.71 standard deviations, including in medical consultations, procedures, hospitalizations and emergency care. These restrictions on access manifest in population health outcomes. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in judicial claims increases the all-cause mortality rate by between 0.10 and 0.23 standard deviations. Increases in mortality are pervasive across causes, with the largest increase in deaths from certain cancers. They are also pervasive across the age and sex distribution but larger among individuals over the age of fifty and (weakly) among women and the low-income population.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126093874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Instituciones coloniales, capacidad estatal local y sus efectos en el conflicto armado interno de los siglos XX y XXI (Colonial Institutions, Local State Capacity and its Effects on the Centuries’ XX and XXI Armed Conflict)","authors":"Aliz Bertoloni Díaz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3908209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3908209","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este trabajo examina el impacto de la institución colonial de la Encomienda sobre la violencia del conflicto armado del siglo XX en Colombia. A pesar de haber sido una institución extractiva, hay evidencia que muestra que las regiones en donde estuvo presente desarrollaron capacidad estatal más temprano, desembocando en Estados locales más fuertes. El análisis muestra que estos Estados tuvieron menor cantidad de ataques violentos por parte de grupos insurgentes, paramilitares y estatales durante el conflicto interno de fines del siglo pasado. Se encontró que este efecto fue el resultado de la mayor capacidad estatal expresada en provisión de bienes públicos, explicada en gran parte por la presencia de la Encomienda en el siglo XVI y por el efecto de esta institución en la presencia de Estados coloniales locales a finales del siglo XVIII. Los resultados aquí presentes muestran la importancia de analizar la capacidad estatal a nivel sub-nacional, que explica resultados distintos del conflicto entre regiones del mismo país. English Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the colonial institution “the Encomienda” on the violence of the armed conflict of the 20th century in Colombia. Despite having been an extractive institution, there is evidence showing that the regions where it was present developed state capacity earlier, leading to stronger local states. The analysis shows that these states had fewer violent attacks by insurgent, paramilitary and state groups during the internal conflict at the end of the last century. It was found that this effect was the result of the greater state capacity expressed as provision of public goods, largely explained by the presence of the Encomienda in the 16th century and by the effect of this institution in the presence of colonial local states at the end of the 18th century. The results presented here show the importance of analyzing state capacity at the sub-national level, which explains different results of the conflict among regions of the same country.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115889734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Turning up the Heat: Warming Oceans and their Effect on Armed Conflict in the Philippines (Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas)","authors":"Sofia Castro Vargas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906811","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: Marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to changes in climatic variables, making fishing livelihoods highly risky in times of global climate emergency. In fact, the collapse of some fish stocks because of increasing water temperatures is starting to become evident. In the Philippines, rural and poor fishing communities have highly extorsive relationships with non-state armed actors, making them even more vulnerable. Using sea surface temperature, conflict, and fisheries production data for the years 2003–2018, this paper examines the impact of sea surface temperature shocks on armed conflict-related violence in the 64 provinces with a coastline in the Philippines. The results are conclusive to a positive and statistically significant effect of sea surface temperature shocks on conflict-related outcomes such as number of violent events and deaths associated with them. This effect is driven by the negative impacts of these deviations on both agricultural and fisheries production. Using information on the dynamics of armed conflict and fisheries for the Zamboanga Peninsula, this paper presents a case study that documents and hypothesizes on the mechanisms behind the relationship between fisheries production and armed conflict. The results provide inputs for improvements in public policies related to sustainable fishing practices in order to reduce vulnerability of fisherfolk to climate change in low-income and conflict-prone areas in developing countries. Spanish Abstract: Los ecosistemas marinos son particularmente vulnerables a cambios en las variables climáticas, haciendo que las actividades pesqueras sean muy riesgosas en los tiempos de la emergencia climática. De hecho, el colapso de algunas poblaciones de peces debido a incrementos en la temperatura del agua están empezando a hacerse evidentes. En Filipinas, las comunidades pesqueras rurales tienen relaciones altamente extorsivas con grupos armados, haciéndolas aún más vulnerables. Utilizando datos de temperatura del océano, conflicto y producción pesquera para los años 2003-2018, este artículo examina el efecto de choques en la temperatura del océano en la violencia asociada al conflicto armado en Filipinas. Los resultados encontrados son concluyentes hacia un efecto positivo y estadísticamente significativo de los choques en la temperatura del océano sobre variables de conflicto armado como el número de eventos y las muertes asociadas a ellos. El efecto se da debido a los efectos negativos que dichos choques tienen sobre la producción agrícola y pesquera. Utilizando información sobre la dinámica del conflicto armado y la pesca para la Península de Zamboanga, este artículo presenta un estudio de caso que documenta los mecanismos detrás de la relación entre la producción pesquera y el conflicto armado. Los resultados proporcionan insumos para mejorar las políticas públicas relacionadas con las prácticas pesqueras sostenibles con el fin de reducir la vulnerabilidad de lo","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"260 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114484551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empoderamiento de mujeres participantes del programa de alivio a la pobreza Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor en Honduras: análisis cualitativo (Empowerment of Women Beneficiaries of a Poverty-alleviation Program in Honduras: A Qualitative Analysis)","authors":"Rocio del Pilar Moreno Sánchez, J. Maldonado, Luisa Fernanda Arellano Melo, C. Sánchez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3902631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3902631","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: En el año 2018, el gobierno hondureño inició la implementación del programa Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor (EVM), enfocado en reducir la pobreza extrema de hogares rurales en tres departamentos del país. Este programa está basado en el enfoque de graduación, que ha probado resultados efectivos en reducir la pobreza en varias dimensiones. El diseño, la implementación y el seguimiento del programa estuvieron acompañados por un ejercicio de evaluación que incluyó tanto análisis cuantitativo como cualitativo. En este documento se presentan los principales resultados del análisis cualitativo, con un enfoque especial en el empoderamiento de las mujeres participantes. Incluye las percepciones de las mujeres receptoras del programa como de sus compañeros y explora los efectos en acceso a recursos, agencia e impacto en varias dimensiones. Los resultados señalan mejoras en el empoderamiento de las mujeres participantes en aspectos relacionados con la toma de decisiones productivas, domésticas, financieras y de movilización, así como en cambios en el uso del tiempo en actividades domésticas y productivas. Adicionalmente, encontramos mejoras en ingresos, seguridad alimentaria del hogar, activos y actividad productiva, y cambios sustantivos en autoestima, confianza, y la capacidad de establecer metas y definir estrategias para alcanzarlas. El programa EVM otorgó resiliencia a los hogares receptores para enfrentar los efectos de la pandemia causada por el Covid y el confinamiento al que obligó.English Abstract: The Honduran government launched the Emprendiendo una Vida Mejor (EVM) program in 2018. Based on the graduation approach, which has proven effective in reducing poverty in several dimensions, EVM was designed to reduce extreme poverty among rural households in three of the country's departments. Its design, implementation, and monitoring were coupled with an evaluation exercise that included quantitative and qualitative analysis. This paper presents the main results of the qualitative analysis, focusing on the empowerment of women participants. It investigates the perceptions of both women program recipients and their spouses and explores the effects on access to resources, agency, and impact in several dimensions. The results indicate that the women participants are more empowered in aspects related to productive, domestic, and mobility-related decision-making, as well as in terms of changes in their use of time in domestic and productive activities. We also found improvements in income, household food security, assets and productive activity, and substantive changes in self-esteem, confidence, and the ability to set goals and define strategies to achieve them. The EVM program provided resilience to recipient households to cope with the effects of the Covid pandemic and the confinement it enforced.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132499752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Model of Oligopoly","authors":"Hernán Vallejo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3895195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3895195","url":null,"abstract":"This article builds a simple model of oligopoly and uses it to make a detailed characterization of the equilibrium prices; quantities; mark-ups; price elasticities of market demand; price elasticities of residual demand; and welfare, all in terms of the parameters of the model. This is done under five different conjectures -Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg and Bertrand-. The results of the model are used do comparative statics.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124439790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Theorem of the Law of Demand","authors":"Hernán Vallejo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3891831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3891831","url":null,"abstract":"This article proves that at the level of an individual ceteris paribus, when the endowments of goods in general -and of time in particular-, are taken into account, a good has to comply with the Law of Demand if it is normal and its excess demand is positive, or if it is inferior and its excess demand is negative. This result holds even if either the substitution effect is zero; or the excess demand andor the income effect are zero; but not otherwise. This article also outlines other conditions under which a good will not comply with the Law of Demand, by being Giffen or perfectly inelastic to its price. It is proved that the widespread idea that a Giffen good has to be an inferior good applies only to the cases where the excess demand of such good, is positive. It is also argued that accounting for Veblen goods may require considering other determinants of the demand function, beyond the ones considered in this article.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130948831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spillovers de la política monetaria no convencional de los países avanzados hacia América Latina (Unconventional Monetary Policy Spillovers from Advanced Economies to Latin America)","authors":"Julián Roa Rozo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3892467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3892467","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: En este estudio se estiman los efectos de las políticas monetarias no convencionales realizadas por Estados Unidos, la Zona Euro, Reino Unido y Japón (países avanzados) en las economías de México, Brasil, Colombia, Chile y Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de proyección global con tasas de interés sombra. Se encuentra que los spillovers de nivel de la política monetaria son pequeños y los más relevantes para Latinoamérica son los provenientes de Estados Unidos. También se encuentra que los spillovers de volatilidad de las políticas monetarias no convencionales de los países avanzados son pequeños. Los ejercicios de descomposición histórica muestran que la variable más afectada por los spillovers fue la inflación. Finalmente, se simularon escenarios contrafactuales en ausencia de políticas monetarias no convencionales por parte de los países avanzados en donde se encontraron pérdidas cercanas al 0.5 % del PIB en los países latinoamericanos en 2014T4, y una inflación menor en cerca de 1.5 %. Lo anterior muestra el alto costo de no implementar estas políticas y es de particular relevancia para la crisis del COVID-19.English Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policies from the United States, Euro Area, United Kingdom, and Japan (advanced economies) on Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru using a global projection model with shadow rates. I found that spillovers are small and the most relevant come from the United States. I also found that volatility spillovers from advanced economies’ unconventional monetary policies are negligible. Historical decomposition exercises show that the most affected variables by spillovers are the real exchange rate and inflation. Finally, I also simulate counterfactual scenarios in which there were no unconventional monetary policies from advanced economies past 2008, and I found that Latin American economies would have had GDP losses close to 0.5% and inflation 1.5% lower at the end of 2014. This shows the high costs of not implementing these policies and these results are relevant to the COVID-19 crisis.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"2 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128289358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consequences of Violence Against Social Leaders In Colombia","authors":"Germán D. Orbegozo-Rodríguez","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3873534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3873534","url":null,"abstract":"I study the causal effect of violence against social leaders on coca cultivation and land restitution requests in the Colombian context from 2012 to 2018. Using the timing of unexpected killings of social leaders in an event study approach, I provide evidence that the start of the violence against social leaders increases hectares of coca by a magnitude of at least 0.27 standard deviations and reduces land restitution requests by a magnitude of at least 0.29 standard deviations, both in the medium term. As more leaders get killed, the effect becomes larger over time. Attempts to kill social leaders have a similar impact on the outcomes. I provide evidence that suggests that this effect is driven by the deterioration of the collective action capacity of civil society, which is depreciated as more violence is exerted on social leaders.","PeriodicalId":446687,"journal":{"name":"Universidad de los Andes Department of Economics Research Paper Series","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123175461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}