South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA最新文献

{"title":"Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender?","authors":"J. Siegle","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2154832","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2154832","url":null,"abstract":"It is said that concerns by former French President Jacques Chirac on the need to contain the United States as it expanded its role in Africa in the late 1990s prompted French backchannel communications with Russia, lamenting Moscow’s retrenchment from the region in the decade following the Cold War. Responding, in part, to such prodding from French officials, Russian President Vladmir Putin began elevating Africa’s place in Moscow’s foreign policy in 2001. This anecdote is just one of the many revelations captured in Samuel Ramani’s captivating book, Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender? The irony, of course, is that today Russia is actively undermining French relationships on the continent with a relentless disinformation campaign blaming France for a litany of security and economic travails facing its former colonies. The ensuing vacuum of external partners is one Moscow has been happy to fill. Ramani’s work is impressively researched with nearly 1 400 references drawing from English, French, Russian, and Arabic sources and first-hand interviews. By providing a detailed review of Russia’s engagements in Africa for every post-Cold War Russian administration, the book will be a rich resource for years to come. At times reading like a spy novel, the prose is accessible, yet dispassionately narrated. With extended cases from some dozen African countries, the study provides indispensable context and sequencing to the often complex and opaque events defining Russia’s relationships in Africa. As with any historical work of this breadth, the narrative at times relies on generalisations and the skimming over of alternate explanations for the outcomes observed. Nonetheless, the book fills a major gap in the literature and will elevate readers’ understanding of Russia’s engagements on the continent.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"571 - 573"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45963065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Manifestations of Russian formal and informal strategies in Southern and Eastern Africa, 2000–2022","authors":"Dzvinka Kachur","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2150302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2150302","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Russian-African relations have strengthened since Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia. This article argues that a strategy to consolidate power within ‘personalised autocracies’, characterised by co-dependent relationships between the ‘strongmen’ and political elites, shapes Russian foreign policy toward Africa. This strategy includes five elements: i) ‘debt-for-development’swaps; ii) nuclear technology exports; iii) military and para-military cooperation; iv) disinformation campaigns and elections meddling, and v) sponsorship for political parties. The article analyses the implementation of this strategy in Southern and Eastern Africa via the lens of the ‘Racket of Predatory Power’, and identifies three objectives: rent-control, weakened states, and legitimisation. Rent-seeking, the research suggests, is key to Russia’s strategy in these regions. However, the legitimising narrative that underpins Russian foreign policy towards Africa creates a false perception of positive public outcomes among African leaders and the general public arising from Russian-African cooperation.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"509 - 534"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46135499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia rising: Putin’s Foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa","authors":"Youssef Cherif","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2157870","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2157870","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"580 - 581"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47549676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perceptions of Russia’s ‘return’ to Africa: Views from West Africa","authors":"L. Issaev, A. Shishkina, Yakov B. Liokumovich","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2139289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2139289","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 The article focuses on the perception of Russia’s ‘return’ to Africa through an analysis of field research data from three African states: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, gathered in late 2021. In this article, the authors argue that the Russian ‘return’ to Africa, which is primarily seen in the provision of security services through the presence of Russian private military companies (PMCs), is perceived positively in West Africa. An important role is played in these perceptions by the Soviet legacy on the continent, which is remembered positively among Africans. Perceptions among the youths surveyed appear significantly influenced by the crisis in relations between West African countries and France, as well as the experience of Russian involvement in the field of securitisation since 2014. The net effect is that Russian engagement in West Africa, and specifically by PMCs, is welcome.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"425 - 444"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48001359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russian interests in the Horn of Africa: A Red Sea foothold?","authors":"Francesco Generoso","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2148730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2148730","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Russia's global strategy to establish itself as a superpower has led to its increased presence in Africa, particularly after the 2014 tensions over the Crimea in Ukraine created a rift with the West. In recent years, Russia has rebuilt its status as a regional actor in the Horn of Africa lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As in other parts of the world, Russia uses many tools to promote its influence in the region, providing political and military support, as well as engaging in economic and energy cooperation. More generally, Russia's renewed presence in the Horn of Africa competes – to some degree – with the ambitions of other international players in the region, particularly Western countries such as the United States and France, but also China. This article examines Russia's renewed political, military, economic and cultural commitment in the Horn of Africa.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"549 - 570"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43472597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A differentiated courtship: A regime-type analysis of Russia’s Southern African (arms) trade, 2012–2019","authors":"Bhaso Ndzendze, Zimkhitha Manyana","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2144942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2144942","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article presents on general Russian exports to the 16 states in the Southern Africa Development Community, considered by regime type, as well as trade in arms with these states, to determine whether Russia’s commercial ties have been proportionally greater with authoritarian, democratic, or hybrid regimes. The findings indicate a potential ‘differentiated courtship’ between Russia and Southern Africa’s different regime types. Respectively, Russia’s overall trade was concentrated among democracies ahead of authoritarian regimes and hybrid regimes, in line with each regime type’s proportion of regional GDP. On the other hand, Russian arms exports followed a different pattern, in that authoritarian regimes purchased arms at a magnitude slightly beyond that regime type’s proportion of the Southern African regional GDP. The research also found that 60% of all hybrid regimes purchased Russian arms, evincing the highest frequency of importing Russian arms (albeit at small dollar amounts) among all three regime types.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"483 - 507"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44145384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nuclear: Inside South Africa’s Secret Deal","authors":"I. Bosman","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2154831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2154831","url":null,"abstract":"asimov, ‘Tsennost’ nauki v predvidenii,’ 27 February 2013, https://vpk.name/news/85159_ cennost_nauki_v_predvidenii.html. For a translated and commented version see Mark Geleotti, ‘The “Gerasimov Doctrine” and Russian Non-Linear War,’ 2013, https:// inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-nonlinear-war/. See also Charles K. Bartles, ‘Getting Gerasimov Right,’ Military Review 96, no. 1 (2016): 30–38. 3. C. Doxsee, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr and J. Thompson, ‘Tracking the Arrival of Russia’s Wagner Group in Mali,’ CSIS, 2 February 2022, https://www.csis.org/analysis/tracking-arrival-russiaswagner-group-mali; Serwat Ladd, Héni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone and Timothy Lay, ‘Wagner Group Operations in Africa – Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mali,’ ACLED, 30 August 2022, https://acleddata.com/2022/08/30/wagner-groupoperations-in-africa-civilian-targeting-trends-in-the-central-african-republic-and-mali/.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"578 - 579"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48824135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia’s Corporate Soldiers: The Global Expansion of Russia’s Private Military Companies","authors":"Karen Philippa Larsen","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2154259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2154259","url":null,"abstract":"power expansion one should look within Russia at the relationship between the state and society. Great power politics may be less important than the domestic pressures experienced by a corrupt and highly personalised regime. This is an important and timely insight: Russia’s foreign policy adventures quite often serve the needs of the ruling elites, especially the imperative to preserve power. Stoner confronts the traditional realist approach to international relations, one that views states as guided by external circumstances and zero–sum games between major powers. There is something fatalistic and very 19 century in such a view of interstate relations, whereby the decision-making process is taken out of the hands of decision–makers and is presented as an expression of external circumstances beyond their control. The role of the individual or even groups of individuals in history is thus downplayed or simply ignored. Such an approach removes agency and therefore responsibility from the perpetrators of human rights abuses or aggression against neighbouring states. And, importantly, the realist conception of international relations leaves very little agency for smaller and less powerful states, who often find themselves hostages to the whims, delusions and ambitions of major powers. Researching and writing her book prior to the current war against Ukraine, Stoner nevertheless prophetically sounds the warning bells about a regime that may look for salvation and durability in external aggression. But her warning is not just to those who may be and have been direct victims of Putin’s grievance narrative. Highly personalised autocracies tend to be fragile and lack self-restraining mechanisms. They aspire to stability and domination but in the process often embark on a path towards self-destruction. Stoner’s excellent book was published in 2021; in 2022, however, it appears that when applied to Putin’s Russia the word resurrection should be put in quotation marks.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"575 - 578"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42850859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia in the Horn of Africa: Re-engagement in a new strategic environment","authors":"Jithin Mathew, John S. Moolakkattu","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2149615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2149615","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This article discusses the role of Russia in the Horn of Africa in the context of Moscow’s drive to re-engage in the region amid stiff international competition. After providing an account of the geostrategic importance of the Horn, the article discusses a number of areas in which Russia has engaged in cooperation with various regional actors. Those discussed include anti-piracy efforts, military cooperation, trade in arms, cooperation on nuclear energy, and the role played by Russian private security agencies. In addition, analysis notes Russia’s debt relief for African states, failed vaccine diplomacy, assistance for oil exploration, and scholarships and training for African students. Discussion briefly considers the current war in Ukraine and the impact on Russian foreign policy on the Horn. The article concludes that Russia’s foray into Africa is largely to reassert its great power status without considerable costs and risks.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"535 - 548"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46842300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order","authors":"M. Matusevich","doi":"10.1080/10220461.2022.2149616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2022.2149616","url":null,"abstract":"hydrocarbon fields in eastern Libya, it really does not need warlord Khalifa Haftar, the front man who provided Moscow its initial entry point to this strategically important North African country. Russia has moved on to strike deals with Haftar’s rivals in Libya, hedging Moscow’s bets. And just how does any Libyan actor reel Russia in at this point, much less ask them to depart? In Sudan, Russia’s Wagner mercenaries have secured gold mines in the west and trafficking routes through CAR to the United Arab Emirates. In March 2022, Wagner was implicated in the killing of dozens of miners in this region along the Sudan, Chad, and CAR border. This mirrors allegations of Wagner human rights abuses in CAR and Mali. Once Russia has gained a foothold, local communities and even national authorities are intimidated into exclusion – within their own countries. This represents a form of natural resource annexation that starts under the pretext of security. In CAR, a Russian is the national security advisor and Wagner serves as the presidential guard. Russians also have taken control of key positions at the Minister of Finance and Customs. Russian is now the third official language in the country. Reflecting on Ramani’s review, one questions the premise that Russia is intent on advancing a multipolar order. Instead, Moscow appears to be pursuing its own order – a network of client states bound to Russia. In this way, it is not so different from the Soviet model for which Putin is so nostalgic. This may not seem like the basis of a very sustainable partnership. Prospects are bleak for economic growth and stability in each African country where Russia has gained influence. Moreover, there are bitter resentments toward Russia for actively subverting democratic transitions in places like Sudan, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Uganda, the DRC, and Zimbabwe. Public opinion surveys cited by Ramani indicate Putin and Russia are decidedly unpopular with ordinary African citizens. But under Russia’s elite co-option model, African public opinion doesn’t matter. From Moscow’s perspective, the disruption strategy is unfolding according to plan.","PeriodicalId":44641,"journal":{"name":"South African Journal of International Affairs-SAJIA","volume":"29 1","pages":"573 - 575"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42127832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}