Oecd Journal: Economic Studies最新文献

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Using a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effects of birth-related leave policies on subjective well-being in Europe 使用准自然实验来确定欧洲与生育有关的休假政策对主观幸福感的影响
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TVTG6FVMQ
A. d’Addio, S. Chapple, Andreas Hoherz, Bert van Landeghem
{"title":"Using a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effects of birth-related leave policies on subjective well-being in Europe","authors":"A. d’Addio, S. Chapple, Andreas Hoherz, Bert van Landeghem","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TVTG6FVMQ","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TVTG6FVMQ","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to examine the welfare effects of birth-related leave (BRL) in terms of life satisfaction. To do so, we exploit variations in BRL policies to assess their impact on life satisfaction. The paper adds to the existing literature in various ways. First, it uses new data collected by Baldi et al. (2011) and Baldi and Chapple (2010) to describe how life satisfaction moves around the date of the reforms over time and in a number of EU countries covered in the Eurobarometer surveys. Second, the paper analyses the relation between life satisfaction and BRL in Germany and the United Kingdom with long individual panel data collected with the GSOEP and the BHPS survey. The potential endogeneity bias of the treatment effect is addressed by building a quasi-natural experiment using policy changes as the assignment rule. The results from a variety of different methods suggest that BRL polices generally have a significant positive effect on life satisfaction. Women on BRL have higher life satisfaction, controlling for observable and unobservable personal characteristics. This result is robust to alternative specifications. JEL classification: H53, I16, J38 Keywords: Welfare, subjective well-being, difference-in-difference, birth-related leaves","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"7 S1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132226628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 14
Choosing the Pace of Fiscal Consolidation 选择财政整顿的步伐
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TQ96MBR44
Łukasz Rawdanowicz
{"title":"Choosing the Pace of Fiscal Consolidation","authors":"Łukasz Rawdanowicz","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TQ96MBR44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TQ96MBR44","url":null,"abstract":"In many OECD countries debt has soared to levels threatening fiscal sustainability, necessitating its reduction over the medium to longer term. This paper uses stylised simulations in a small, calibrated macroeconomic model which features endogenous interactions between fiscal policy, growth and financial markets. Simulations are done for a hypothetical economy, reflecting key characteristics of fiscally stressed OECD countries. Given the assumed objective to stabilise debt at a 60% of GDP target within 20 years, a consolidation path is chosen by maximising cumulative GDP growth and minimising cumulative squared output gaps. The simulations highlight four issues. First, lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio within a finite horizon requires big initial consolidation which can be largely unwound if debt is to be stabilised at a lower level. Second, some frontloading of the adjustment turns out to be optimal in case of an interest rate shock. Third, debt reduction with high fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects and adverse market reactions involves protracted large negative output gaps and deflation. This stresses the importance of selecting reasonable fiscal targets consistent with market conditions. Fourth, delaying the attainment of the debt target by two years has generally little implications for initial consolidation, though under adverse conditions this would result in much higher debt and slower growth. Choisir le rythme de l'assainissement budgetaire Dans de nombreux pays de l'OCDE, la dette a atteint des niveaux menacant la viabilite budgetaire, necessitant sa reduction a moyen et a long terme. Ce document utilise des simulations stylisees mises en oeuvre avec un petit modele macroeconomique calibre qui tient compte des interactions endogenes entre la politique budgetaire, la croissance et les marches financiers. Les simulations sont realisees pour une economie fictive refletant les principales caracteristiques des pays de l'OCDE en difficulte budgetaire. Compte tenu de l'objectif de stabiliser la dette a 60% du PIB a horizon de 20 ans, le chemin de l’assainissement est choisi par la maximisation de la croissance cumulee du PIB et par la minimisation des carres des ecarts de production. Les simulations mettent en evidence quatre problemes. Tout d'abord, l'abaissement du ratio dette sur PIB a horizon fini exige une grande consolidation initiale qui peut etre largement annulee par la suite si la dette doit etre stabilisee a un niveau inferieur. Deuxiemement, une montee en charge plus rapide de l’assainissement est optimale en cas de chocs de taux d'interet. Troisiemement, en cas de multiplicateurs fiscaux eleves, de phenomenes d'hysterese et de reactions defavorables des marches, la reduction de la dette implique des periodes prolongees d’ecarts de production negatifs importants et de deflation. Cela souligne l'importance de choisir des objectifs budgetaires raisonnables et compatibles avec les conditions de marche. Quatriemement, reporter l'assai","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128948468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 32
Reconciling fiscal consolidation with growth and equity 协调财政整顿与增长和公平
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5JZB44VZBKHD
Boris Cournéde, Antoine Goujard, Álvaro M. Pina
{"title":"Reconciling fiscal consolidation with growth and equity","authors":"Boris Cournéde, Antoine Goujard, Álvaro M. Pina","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5JZB44VZBKHD","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5JZB44VZBKHD","url":null,"abstract":"Despite sustained efforts made in recent years to rein in budget deficits, a majority of OECD countries still face substantial public finance consolidation needs. While essential to avoid the disruption and large costs ultimately associated with unsustainable public finances, fiscal consolidation complicates the task of achieving other policy goals. In most cases, it weighs on demand in the short term. And, if too little attention is paid to the mix of instruments used to achieve consolidation, it can undermine long-term growth, exacerbate income inequality and slow the process of global rebalancing. It is therefore important for governments to adopt consolidation strategies that minimise these adverse side-effects. The analysis proposes consolidation strategies that take into account other policy goals as well as country-specific circumstances and preferences. To do so, increases in particular taxes and cuts in specific spending areas are assessed for their effects on short- and long-term growth, income distribution and external accounts. The results of detailed illustrative simulations indicate that a significant number of OECD countries may have to raise harmful taxes or cut valuable spending areas to deliver sufficient consolidation, underscoring the need for structural reforms to counteract these side-effects. The results are robust to an extensive range of sensitivity checks.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127557787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
TOWARDS GLOBAL CARBON PRICING: DIRECT AND INDIRECT LINKING OF CARBON MARKETS 迈向全球碳定价:碳市场的直接和间接联系
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/5KM975T0CFR8-EN
R. Dellink, Stéphanie Jamet, Jean Château, R. Duval
{"title":"TOWARDS GLOBAL CARBON PRICING: DIRECT AND INDIRECT LINKING OF CARBON MARKETS","authors":"R. Dellink, Stéphanie Jamet, Jean Château, R. Duval","doi":"10.1787/5KM975T0CFR8-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/5KM975T0CFR8-EN","url":null,"abstract":"Emissions trading systems (ETS) can play a major role in a cost-effective climate policy framework. Both direct linking of ETSs and indirect linking through a common crediting mechanism can reduce costs of action. We use a global recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of direct and indirect linking of ETS systems across world regions. Linking of domestic Annex I ETSs leads to moderate aggregate cost savings, as differences in domestic permit prices are limited. However, the economy of the main seller, Russia, is negatively affected by the real exchange rate appreciation that is induced by the large export of permits. The cost-saving potential for developed countries of well-functioning crediting mechanisms appears to be very large. Even limited use of credits would nearly halve mitigation costs; cost savings would be largest for carbon-intensive economies. However, one open issue is whether these gains can be fully reaped in reality, given that direct linking and the use of crediting mechanisms both raise complex system design and implementation issues. The analysis in this paper shows, however, that the potential gains to be reaped are so large, that substantial efforts in this domain are warranted. Les systemes d’echange de droits d’emission peuvent jouer un role considerable dans le cadre d’une politique climatique efficace par rapport aux couts. Le couplage direct de ces systemes, aussi bien qu’indirect a travers un mecanisme commun d’attribution de credits, peut reduire les couts de l’action. Nous utilisons un modele mondial dynamique recursif d’equilibre general calculable pour evaluer les effets du couplage direct et indirect des systemes d’echange de droits d’emission dans les differentes regions du monde. Le couplage des systemes d’echange nationaux des pays vises a l’annexe I entraine de faibles economies dans l’ensemble, car les differences de prix entre permis nationaux sont limitees. Cela etant, l’economie du principal vendeur - la Russie - est mise a mal par l’appreciation du taux de change reel due aux fortes exportations de permis. Les economies que pourraient realiser les pays developpes grâce a des mecanismes efficaces d’attribution de credits d’emission semblent tres importantes. Un recours meme limite a ces credits permettrait en gros de reduire de moitie les couts de l’attenuation ; les economies a forte intensite de carbone sont celles qui feraient le plus d’economies. Il reste a savoir cependant si, concretement, ces avantages pourraient etre exploites en totalite, compte tenu des problemes complexes de conception et de mise en oeuvre que posent tant le couplage direct que les mecanismes d’attribution de credits. L’analyse presentee dans ce rapport montre toutefois que les avantages a en tirer peuvent etre si grands qu’il se justifie de deployer des efforts considerables dans ce domaine.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132767248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
Demographic or labour market trends: What determines the distribution of household earnings in OECD countries? 人口或劳动力市场趋势:是什么决定了经合组织国家的家庭收入分配?
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K43JT5VCDVL
Wen-Hao Chen, M. Förster, Ana Llena-Nozal
{"title":"Demographic or labour market trends: What determines the distribution of household earnings in OECD countries?","authors":"Wen-Hao Chen, M. Förster, Ana Llena-Nozal","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K43JT5VCDVL","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K43JT5VCDVL","url":null,"abstract":"This article assesses various underlying driving factors for the evolution of household earnings inequality for 23 OECD countries from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s. There are a number of factors at play. Some are related to labour market trends – increasing dispersion of individual wages and changes in men’s and women’s employment rates. Others relate to shifts in household structures and family formation – more single-headed households and increased earnings correlation among partners in couples. The contribution of each of these factors is estimated using a semi parametric decomposition technique. The results reveal that marital sorting and household structure changes contributed, albeit moderately, to increasing household earnings inequality, while rising women’s employment exerted a sizable equalising effect. However, changes in labour market factors, in particular increases in men’s earnings disparities, were identified as the main driver of household earnings inequality, contributing between one-third and one-half to the overall increase in most countries. Sensitivity analysis applying a reversedorder decomposition suggests that these results are robust.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"240 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114285572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 35
Policy incentives for private innovation and maximising the returns 私人创新的政策激励和回报最大化
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2014-02-05 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TRMJLHXZQ
Ben Westmore
{"title":"Policy incentives for private innovation and maximising the returns","authors":"Ben Westmore","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TRMJLHXZQ","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2013-5K3TRMJLHXZQ","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses panel regression techniques to assess the policy determinants of private-sector innovative activity – proxied by R&D expenditure and the number of new patents – across 19 OECD countries. The relationship between innovation indicators and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth is also examined with a particular focus on the role of public policies in influencing the returns to new knowledge. The results establish an empirical link between R&D and patenting, as well as between these measures of innovation intensity and MFP growth. Innovation-specific policies such as R&D tax incentives, direct government support and patent rights are found to be successful in encouraging the innovative activities associated with higher productivity growth. However, direct empirical evidence of the positive effects of these policies on productivity is less forthcoming. A pervasive theme from the analysis is the importance of coupling policies aimed at encouraging innovation or technological adoption with well-designed framework policies that allow knowledge spillovers to proliferate. In particular, the settings of framework policies relating to product market regulation, openness to trade and debtor protection in bankruptcy provisions are found to be important for the diffusion of new technologies. JEL classification: L20, O30, O40 Keywords: Intangible assets, innovation, productivity growth, public policy","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130968948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Fiscal multipliers and prospects for consolidation 财政乘数和巩固前景
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2013-01-04 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8X6K5WC58X
R. Barrell, D. Holland, I. Hurst
{"title":"Fiscal multipliers and prospects for consolidation","authors":"R. Barrell, D. Holland, I. Hurst","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8X6K5WC58X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8X6K5WC58X","url":null,"abstract":"This article looks at various aspects of fiscal consolidation in 18 OECD economies. The prospects for fiscal consolidation depend upon the problems a country may face with its debt stock, the political will to deal with these problems and on the costs of consolidation. These costs are a function of the impacts of fiscal policy on the economy, which is the focus of this study. The analysis is based on a series of simulations using the National Institute Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. Fiscal multipliers differ across countries because the structure and behaviour of economies differ. They also differ within countries, depending on factors such as the fiscal instrument implemented, the policy response to fiscal innovations, and expectation formation by economic agents. The purpose of this study is to allow an assessment of the likely impact on the economy and on the fiscal position of consolidation programmes.We decompose the key factors that determine the size of the multiplier by changing them one at a time. Even under a specified set of assumptions, the outturn for the budget balance retains a high degree of uncertainty. We illustrate this uncertainty by calibrating probability bounds around projected debt profiles. This can allow an assessment of the probability of achieving specified fiscal targets, such as those set out in the European Union’s new Fiscal Compact.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115357847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 46
Avoiding debt traps: Fiscal consolidation, financial backstops and structural reforms 避免债务陷阱:财政整顿、金融支持和结构性改革
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2013-01-04 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XBNJBN9HL
P. Padoan, Urban Sila, P. Noord
{"title":"Avoiding debt traps: Fiscal consolidation, financial backstops and structural reforms","authors":"P. Padoan, Urban Sila, P. Noord","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XBNJBN9HL","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XBNJBN9HL","url":null,"abstract":"In this article we develop a simple and stylised analytical framework, which is both tractable and feasible to estimate, capturing several key dimensions of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We use it to examine if and how a combination of fiscal consolidation, structural reform and financial backstops can help countries, notably the southern euro-area countries, to escape from the debt trap. Our analysis confirms that the loss of fiscal policy space in countries trapped in bad dynamics inevitably requires that fiscal action be directed towards consolidation despite some output loss in the short run. In particular, reducing debt levels breeds stronger growth and results in lower sovereign risk premia. We identify also a very important role for structural reform to help countries escape from bad dynamics. Last but not least, we find that financial backstops are helpful, but only to “buy time”. This additional time must be used productively, for fiscal consolidation and structural reforms to bear fruit as well as to make progress with institutional reforms of the European monetary union.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124980104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 27
ICT investments and productivity: Measuring the contribution of ICTS to growth 信息通信技术投资与生产率:衡量信息通信技术对增长的贡献
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2013-01-04 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XDHJ4TV0T
V. Spiezia
{"title":"ICT investments and productivity: Measuring the contribution of ICTS to growth","authors":"V. Spiezia","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XDHJ4TV0T","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K8XDHJ4TV0T","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses an econometric approach to estimate the contribution of three types of ICT investments (computer, software and communication) in 26 industries (the whole business sector) in 18 OECD countries over 1995-2007, based on the EU KLEMS Database. The estimated contribution of ICT investments to value added growth in the business sector varies from 1.0% a year in Australia to 0.4% a year in Japan. In one-third of the countries considered, the contribution of ICT investment was bigger or equal to the contribution of non-ICT investments. In most countries, computing equipment provided the largest contribution and accounted for over 50% of the overall ICT contribution. The only exceptions are Finland, where investments in communication equipment exceeded those in computing equipment, and Japan, where software was the most dynamic component of ICT investments. ICT producing industries account for no less than two-thirds of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Germany, Slovenia and the United Kingdom, about 60% in the United States and just below 50% in France and the Netherlands. In Denmark, the Czech Republic and Italy, TFP increased in the ICT producing industries whereas it decreased for the total business sector. JEL classification: O47, E23, E22. Keywords: Growth accounting, ICT, GMM, EU KLEMS.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130105566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 64
Do investors disproportionately shed assets of distant countries during global financial crises?: The role of increased uncertainty 在全球金融危机期间,投资者会不成比例地剥离遥远国家的资产吗?:不确定性增加的作用
Oecd Journal: Economic Studies Pub Date : 2013-01-04 DOI: 10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K4DPMW9HPHC
Rudiger Ahrend, Cyrille Schwellnus
{"title":"Do investors disproportionately shed assets of distant countries during global financial crises?: The role of increased uncertainty","authors":"Rudiger Ahrend, Cyrille Schwellnus","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K4DPMW9HPHC","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2012-5K4DPMW9HPHC","url":null,"abstract":"The global crisis of 2008-09 went hand in hand with sharp fluctuations in capital flows. To some extent, these fluctuations may have been attributable to uncertainty-averse investors indiscriminately selling assets about which they had poor information, including those in geographically distant locations. Using a gravity equation setup, this article shows that the impact of distance increases with investors’ uncertainty aversion. Consistent with a sudden increase in uncertainty, the negative impact of distance on foreign holdings increased during the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Host-country structural policies enhancing the quality of information available to foreign investors, such as strict disclosure requirements and prudential bank regulation, tended to mitigate withdrawals.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114515479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
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