Oecd Journal: Economic Studies最新文献

{"title":"Efficiency and contestability in emerging market banking systems","authors":"Christian Daude, Julien Pascal","doi":"10.1787/eco_studies-2016-5jg1jxfzdj9v","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2016-5jg1jxfzdj9v","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores some of the potential determinants of efficiency and contestability in the banking systems of major emerging countries, using a sample of the 24 countries over the period 2004-13. Stochastic and data envelopment analyses are used to estimate national levels of efficiency, while market contestability is captured through the H-statistic. Panel data econometric methods are used to determine potential drivers of both efficiency and market contestability, which provides the basis for an evaluation of potential complementarities and trade-offs between these two dimensions.\u0000JEL classification: E44, G14, G21, G28, L11\u0000Keywords: Banking, competition, efficiency, emerging markets","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126203485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries","authors":"M. Hermansen, Oliver Röhn","doi":"10.1787/5JRXHGFQX3MV-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/5JRXHGFQX3MV-EN","url":null,"abstract":"The global financial crisis and the high associated costs have revived the academic and policy interest in “early warning indicators” of crises. This paper provides empirical evidence on the usefulness of a new set of vulnerability indicators, proposed in a companion paper (Rohn et al., 2015), in predicting severe recessions and crises in OECD countries. To evaluate the usefulness of the indicators the signalling approach is employed, which takes into account policy makers’ preferences between missing crises and false alarms. Our empirical evidence shows that the majority of indicators would have helped to predict severe recessions in the 34 OECD economies and Latvia between 1970 and 2014. Indicators of global risks consistently outperform domestic indicators in terms of their usefulness, highlighting the importance of taking international developments into account when assessing a country’s vulnerabilities. In the domestic areas, indicators that measure asset market imbalances (real house and equity prices, house price-to-income and house price-to-rent ratios), also perform consistently well both in and out-of sample. Domestic credit related variables appear particularly useful in signalling upcoming banking crises and in predicting the global financial crisis out-of-sample. The results are broadly robust to different definitions of costly events, different forecasting horizons and different time and country samples. Resilience economique : L'utilite des indicateurs d'alerte rapide dans des pays de l'OCDE La crise financiere mondiale et les couts associes eleves ont ravive l'interet pour les « indicateurs d'alerte rapide » des crises. Cette etude fournit des donnees statistiques sur l'utilite d'un nouvel ensemble d'indicateurs de vulnerabilite, propose dans une etude connexe (Rohn et al., 2015), pour predire les recessions graves et les crises dans les pays de l'OCDE. Pour evaluer l'utilite des indicateurs la methode de signalisation est employee. Celle-ci prend en compte les preferences des decideurs politiques entre les crises manquantes et les fausses alarmes. Les resultats de l’analyse statistique montrent que la majorite des indicateurs aurait aide a predire les recessions severes dans les 34 economies de l'OCDE et la Lettonie entre 1970 et 2014. Les indicateurs de risque global surclassent systematiquement les indicateurs domestiques en termes d’information utile, soulignant l'importance de prendre les developpements internationaux en compte lors de l'evaluation des vulnerabilites d'un pays. Dans les champs domestiques, des indicateurs qui mesurent les desequilibres du marche des actifs (les prix reels des logements et le cours des actions, le ratio du prix des logements au revenu disponible et le ratio du prix des logements au cout des loyers), performe bien dans et hors de l'echantillon. Les variables reliees au credit domestique semblent particulierement utile dans la signalisation des crises bancaires et a predire la crise financiere m","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130008474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Administrative fragmentation and economic performance of OECD TL2 regions","authors":"D. Bartolini","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG318W59M6H","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG318W59M6H","url":null,"abstract":"The present work investigates the relationship between administrative fragmentation and regional per capita GDP growth rate, using a panel of OECD TL2 regions in the period 1996-2011. According to the fiscal decentralisation literature, fragmentation should enhance growth as local governments can implement policies that better match citizens’ needs, thus providing services and public goods in a more efficient way. The presence of many local governments, however, may result in overlapping functions, (dis)economies of scale, and uncoordinated policies.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"2016 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130544067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"National testing policies and educator based testing for accountability: The role of selection in student achievement","authors":"William C. Smith","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG1JXFTJ4R3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG1JXFTJ4R3","url":null,"abstract":"Increasingly accountability in education has linked student test scores to teacher and school evaluations. The underlying assumption behind this educator based accountability is that the high stakes linked to student test scores will prompt behavioral change, thus improving student learning and education quality. This study conducts a cross policy analysis using pooled data from the 2009 PISA, categorizing participant countries of the 2009 PISA into three national testing policies based on what type of educator based accountability is applied in the country. Results indicate that initial differences between national testing policy categories are not significant once school types and school practices that select on the student are included. This suggests that potential gains from more stringent accountability may be an artifact of schools under pressure engaging in practices that shape their testing pool, such as admitting only relatively high achieving students or transferring out lower achieving students.\u0000JEL classification: I21, I24, I25, I28\u0000Keywords: Education, PISA, accountability, testing, equity","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117250712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fortune or fortitude? Determinants of successful adjustment with IMF programs","authors":"Martin Larch, K. Bernard, Peter D. McQuade","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG1G64G196G","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2016-5JG1G64G196G","url":null,"abstract":"Full adjustment programs in the wake of crisis episodes exact a major toll on a country’s economy, yet not all are blessed with success.We identify adjustment needs by a country’s decision to approach the IMF for official assistance.We then investigate the factors conducive to successful exit from official assistance during more than 170 adjustment episodes by means of a panel regression framework. In contrast to the existing literature, we do not use absolute benchmarks. We define success as a resumption of real GDP growth and a reduction of government debt compared to the pre-program period. Our econometric results suggest stringent policy action do play a role for the probability of success. At the same time, we also find that successful exit also very much depends on supportive external conditions and, linked to that, the degree of openness of an economy. JEL classification: E61, F33, G01, H81 Keywords: Fiscal adjustment, financial crises, IMF lending","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"31 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133587152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years","authors":"H. Braconier, G. Nicoletti, Ben Westmore","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104KJN5J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104KJN5J","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. It highlights the growing need for international policy coordination and cooperation in a number of areas. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on the diffusion of knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies and heightened international cooperation can address these and other interlinked challenges over the coming 50 years. JEL classification: F, H, I2, I3, J1, O3, O4, Q5 Keywords: Global economy, growth, technological change, inequality, income distribution, immigration, environmental damages, climate change, tertiary education, fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, interdependence, co-ordination, projections","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125023934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of the unemployment gap","authors":"Elena Rusticelli, D. Turner, M. Cavalleri","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104KJGMR","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104KJGMR","url":null,"abstract":"Inflation has become much less sensitive to movements in unemployment in recent decades. A common explanation for this change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central banks. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the “former” and “new” specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD Economic Outlook projections. The former OECD specification can be characterised as a traditional “backward-looking” Phillips curve, where current inflation is partly explained by an autoregressive distributed lag process of past inflation representing both inertia and inflation expectations formed on the basis of recent inflation outcomes. Conversely, the new approach adjusts this specification to incorporate the notion that inflation expectations are anchored around the central bank’s inflation objective. The main finding of the paper is that the latter approach systematically out-performs the former for an overwhelming majority of OECD countries over a recent sample period. Relative to the backward-looking specification, the anchored expectations approach also tends to imply larger unemployment gaps for those countries for which actual unemployment has increased the most. Moreover, the anchored expectations Phillips curve reduces real-time revisions to the unemployment gap, although these still remain uncomfortably large, in the case of countries where there have been large changes in unemployment. JEL classification: C22, E24, E31, J64 Keywords: Anchored expectations, Phillips curve, equilibrium unemployment, real-time revisions","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130362184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experience and the returns to education and skill in OECD countries: Evidence of employer learning?","authors":"Stijn Broecke","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRS3SQRVZG5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRS3SQRVZG5","url":null,"abstract":"Using the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), this paper documents how the returns to education and skill change with experience for a sample of 22 OECD countries. It does this within the framework of the Altonji and Pierret (2001) employer learning model, and therefore also tests the relevance of this theory in a wide range of countries using comparable data and a consistent methodology. Significant heterogeneity is found in the experience profiles of the returns to education and skill across countries, and convincing evidence in support of the employer learning theory is only found in a sub-set of the countries analysed. While these countries vary significantly from one another in terms of their labour market institutions and educational systems, the analysis does seem to suggest that employer learning is most common in those countries where employment protection legislation on temporary contracts is weak. This is consistent with a model in which temporary contracts allow employers to test and learn about young workers, and give them the flexibility to adjust wages in line with observed productivity.JEL codes: J24, J32, D83 Keywords: Employer learning, returns to education, returns to skill","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130435230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The dynamics of social expenditures over the cycle: A comparison across OECD countries","authors":"A. d’Addio","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRS63LPKMXR","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRS63LPKMXR","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the cyclical behaviour of public social spending in 20 OECD countries observed over the period between 1982 and 2011. In view of the recent discussion on cutting the budget deficit, the paper pays particular attention to whether social spending is pro-cyclical or countercyclical, whether it changes asymmetrically during expansions and recessions and whether the asymmetric changes in social spending contribute to a drift in social expenditures over time. The links between social spending levels and key economic variables, such as economic growth, provide also a useful context for discussing current social expenditure trends. The estimates, based on a system-GMM estimator, suggest that an upward ratchet effect exists. The effect is robust to a large number of alternative specifications. JEL classification: E32, E62, H50, I00 Keywords: Fiscal policy, economic cycles, social spending, ratchet effect","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"50 9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124976938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trade Patterns in the 2060 World Economy","authors":"Jean Château, L. Fontagné, L. Fontagné, L. Fontagné, J. Fouré, Åsa Johansson, Eduardo Olaberría","doi":"10.1787/5JXRMDK5F86J-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/5JXRMDK5F86J-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the geographical centre of trade will continue to shift from OECD to non-OECD regions reflecting faster growth in non-OECD countries. The relative importance of different regions in specific export markets is set to change markedly over the next half century with emerging economies gaining export shares in manufacturing and services. Trade liberalisation, including gradual removal of tariffs, regulatory barriers in services and agricultural support, as well as a reduction in transaction costs on goods, could increase global trade and GDP over the next 50 years. Specific scenarios of regional liberalisation among a core group of OECD countries or partial multilateral liberalisation could, respectively, raise trade by 4% and 15% and GDP by 0.6% and 2.8% by 2060 relative to the status quo. Finally, the model highlights that investment in education has an influence on trade and high-skill specialisation patterns over the coming decades. Slower educational upgrading in key emerging economies than expected in the baseline scenario could reduce world exports by 2% by 2060. Lower up-skilling in emerging economies would also slow down the restructuring towards higher value-added activities in these emerging economies.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125272674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}