Oecd Journal: Economic Studies最新文献

{"title":"International Migration: The Relationship with Economic and Policy Factors in the Home and Destination Country","authors":"Ben Westmore","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104JPZ7J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRP104JPZ7J","url":null,"abstract":"Unfavourable demographic trends in many OECD countries threaten the sustainability of potential labour resources, GDP growth and fiscal positions. One factor that is expected to mitigate these trends is continued inflows of migrant workers from low income economies. However, a rapid catch-up in productivity and wages in these traditional source countries vis-a-vis the OECD may weaken economic incentives for migration and imply a transition away from current migration patterns. This paper uses data of the high-skilled and low-skilled migrant stock between 92 origin and 44 destination countries to highlight the relationship between economic factors and migration. The paper also attempts to uncover links with policy and demographic factors prevailing in the origin and destination countries. The analysis suggests that higher skill-specific wages in the destination country are associated with more migration. This relationship appears to be particularly strong for migrants from middle-income countries, supporting theories of an inverted-U relationship between origin country economic development and the propensity to migrate. Policy differences between the destination and origin also appear important, for example in terms of regulations on businesses and labour markets, along with the relative quality of institutions. In some instances, the effects on high-skilled and low-skilled migrants differ markedly. Combining the estimated coefficients from the model with the skill-specific wage profile from the OECD long-term growth projections highlights the potential for weaker future migrant flows to OECD countries than implied by past trends and embedded in official projections.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124920082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Pro-growth Policies Lift all Boats?: An Analysis Based on Household Disposable Income","authors":"O. Causa, A. Serres, Nicolás Ruiz","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRQHBB1T5JB","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRQHBB1T5JB","url":null,"abstract":"In a majority of OECD countries, GDP growth over the past three decades has been associated with growing income disparities. To shed some lights on the potential sources of trade-offs between growth and equity, this paper investigates the long-run impact of structural reforms on GDP per capita and household income distribution. Pro-growth reforms can be distinguished according to whether they are found to generate an increase or a reduction in household disposable income inequality. Those that contribute to reduce inequality include the reduction in regulatory barriers to competition, trade and FDI, as well as the stepping-up in job search assistance and training programmes. Conversely, a tightening of unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed is found to lift mean household income but to lower income among poorer households, thus raising inequality. Several other reforms have no significant impact on income distribution. Les politiques de croissance peuvent-elles reduire les inegalites? : Une analyse basee sur le revenu disponible des menages Dans la majorite des pays de l'OCDE, la croissance du PIB au cours des trois dernieres decennies a ete associee a des disparites croissantes de revenus. Afin d’eclairer les sources potentielles d’arbitrage entre croissance et equite, cette etude examine l'impact a long terme des reformes structurelles sur le PIB par habitant et sur la distribution du revenu des menages. Les reformes favorables a la croissance peuvent etre distinguees selon qu’elles augmentent ou reduisent la dispersion du revenu disponible. Les politiques qui contribuent a reduire les inegalites comprennent la reduction des obstacles reglementaires a la concurrence, au commerce et a l'IDE, ainsi que l'intensification des programmes d'assistance et de formation a l’emploi. Inversement, un resserrement des prestations de chomage pour les chomeurs de longue duree augmente le revenu moyen des menages mais baisse celui des plus pauvres, augmentant ainsi les inegalites. Plusieurs autres reformes n’ont pas d'impact significatif sur la repartition des revenus.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115754936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does the Post-Crisis Weakness of Global Trade Solely Reflect Weak Demand?","authors":"Patrice Ollivaud, Cyrille Schwellnus","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRQ9TZBWKR3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2015-5JRQ9TZBWKR3","url":null,"abstract":"Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement of global GDP and extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area. As a measure of demand for traded goods, global GDP at market exchange rates is more appropriate than the conventional purchasing power parity-based measure. Moreover, extraordinary demand weakness in the euro area – which is a particularly trade intensive region – has had a substantial negative effect on intra-euro area trade flows, which are commonly counted towards global trade. When global GDP is measured at market exchange rates and intra-euro area flows are removed from the measure of global trade, econometric estimations suggest that over the past 15 years the long-term elasticity of global trade to GDP has been similar to that of the 1990s. Indeed, the overwhelming part of postcrisis trade weakness can be attributed to weak global demand rather than structural changes, according to the econometric estimations in this paper and supporting evidence on changes in global investment, international production fragmentation and protectionism.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132594345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rescuing the Phillips curve: Making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU","authors":"Elena Rusticelli","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXRCM2CDFF6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXRCM2CDFF6","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the increased importance of cyclically-adjusted measures of labour market slack for policymaking, estimates of the NAIRU have become increasingly fragile. Particularly for euro area countries, NAIRU estimates represent a crucial input to compute cyclically-adjusted budget balances adopted to formulate medium-term fiscal objectives under the EU fiscal surveillance framework. However, the apparent reduced sensitivity of inflation to labour market dynamics and unemployment gaps seriously undermines the use of Phillips curve equations in estimating the NAIRU. Estimates of the NAIRU are particularly problematic when changes in unemployment are both very large and rapid as in the aftermath of the global crisis. This paper proposes a refinement to the standard OECD approach of using a Kalman filter to estimate the NAIRU in the context of the Phillips curve. The proposed refinement strengthens the relationship between inflation and labour market developments by considering the risk of hysteresis effects associated with changes in long-term unemployment. Testing the revised methodology on a broad selection of OECD countries gives mixed results. For a group of countries in the euro area periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) there is an increase in the magnitude and statistical significance of the unemployment gap, with the NAIRU revised upward by on average 1¾ percentage points. However, the revised methodology provides less improvement to the standard OECD methodology for a second set of countries considered, namely the G7 excluding Italy. The United States is an interesting intermediate case as the statistical evidence for the proposed methodology is marginal, but the policy implications of the revised point estimate of the NAIRU are major. JEL classification: C32, E24, E31, E32, J64. Keywords: Long-term unemployment, flattening Phillips curve, NAIRU, euro area periphery, Kalman filter.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127511243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lessons from OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis","authors":"Christine Lewis, N. Pain","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXRCM2GLC7J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXRCM2GLC7J","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focusing on lessons that can be learned. Growth was repeatedly overestimated in the projections, which failed to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery. Similar errors were made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation was stronger than expected on average. Analysis of the growth errors shows that the OECD projections in the crisis years were larger in countries with more international trade openness and greater presence of foreign banks. In the recovery, there is little evidence that an underestimate of the impact of fiscal consolidation contributed significantly to forecast errors. Instead, the repeated conditioning assumption that the euro area crisis would stabilise or ease played an important role, with growth weaker than projected in European countries where bond spreads were higher than had been assumed. But placing these errors in a historical context illustrates that the errors were not without precedent: similar-sized errors were made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques and procedures, to improve their ability to monitor near-term developments and to better account for international linkages and financial market developments. JEL classification: E17, E27, E32, E37, E62, E66, F47, G01 Keywords: Forecasting, economic outlook, economic fluctuations, fiscal policy","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"221 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116068722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on OECD Potential Output","authors":"Patrice Ollivaud, D. Turner","doi":"10.1787/5JXWTL8H75BW-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/5JXWTL8H75BW-EN","url":null,"abstract":"Potential output losses from the global financial crisis are estimated by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries which experienced a banking crisis over the period 2007-11 the median loss in potential output in 2014 is estimated to be about 5½ per cent, compared with a loss in aggregate potential output across all OECD countries of about 3½ per cent. The loss does, however, vary widely across countries, being more than 10% for several smaller European, mainly euro area, countries. The largest adverse effects come from lower trend productivity, which is a combination of both lower total factor productivity and lower capital per worker. Despite large increases in structural unemployment in some countries, the contribution of lower potential employment is limited because the adverse effect on labour force participation is generally much less than might have been expected on the basis of previous severe downturns. This may partly reflect pension reforms and a tightening up of early retirement pathways. Pre-crisis conditions relating to over-heating and financial excesses, including high inflation, high investment, large current account deficits, high total economy indebtedness and more rapid growth in capital-per-worker are all correlated with larger post-crisis potential output losses. This suggests that underlying the potential output losses was a substantial misallocation of resources, especially of capital, in the pre-crisis boom period. On the other hand, more competition-friendly product market regulation is associated with smaller losses of potential output, suggesting that it facilitates a reallocation of resources across firms and sectors in the aftermath of an adverse shock and so helps to mitigate its consequences. JEL classification: E32; E44. Keywords: Banking crisis, financial crisis, global financial crisis, potential output.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126050188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foreign direct investment and reverse technology spillovers: the effect on total factor productivity","authors":"E. Amann, Swati Virmani","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXX56VCXN0N","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JXX56VCXN0N","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses the “feedback effect” of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in emerging economies via technology spillovers across borders. We study the effect of R–D spillovers resulting from outward FDI flows from 18 emerging economies into 34 OECD countries over the 1990-2010 period, comparing the impact with that of spillovers resulting from inward FDI flows. The result confirms that FDI enhances productivity growth; however the impact is much larger when R-D-intensive developed countries invest in the emerging economies than the other way round. Country-specific bilateral elasticities also support this outcome. JEL classification: F210, F430, F620, O470. Keywords: Outward FDI, Inward FDI, Reverse technology spillovers, Total factor productivity.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116336193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Japan's challenging debt dynamics","authors":"Yvan Guillemette, Jan Stráský","doi":"10.1787/5K41W045V6MP-EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/5K41W045V6MP-EN","url":null,"abstract":"This working paper presents the background and the details of the simulations behind Box 1.4 of the May 2013 OECD Economic Outlook. A small simulation model is used to evaluate the contribution that the three pillars of the government’s strategy – fiscal consolidation, growth-boosting structural reforms and higher inflation – could make to reversing the rise in Japan’s public debt ratio, currently about 230% of GDP. The findings indicate that fiscal consolidation amounting to around 10 percentage points of GDP is necessary by 2020 to eliminate the primary deficit, as targeted in the current medium-term fiscal strategy. With moderately higher growth coming from increased female labour force participation and higher productivity growth, as well as inflation gradually rising to 2% thanks to unconventional monetary policy measures, the debt ratio would likely be put on a resolute downward trajectory by the end of this decade, although it is likely to remain around 200% of GDP in 2035. L'inquietante evolution de la dette publique au Japon Ce document de travail presente la toile de fond et les details des simulations derriere l’encadre 1.4 du numero de Mai 2013 des Perspectives economiques de l’OCDE. Un modele de simulation de petite taille est utilise pour evaluer dans quelle mesure les trois piliers de la strategie gouvernementale – consolidation budgetaire, reformes structurelles pour doper la croissance et inflation plus elevee – pourraient contribuer a renverser l’evolution du ratio d’endettement publique au Japon, actuellement autour de 230% du PIB. Les resultats indiquent qu’environ 10 points de PIB de consolidation budgetaire sont necessaires d’ici 2020 pour eliminer le deficit primaire, tel que prevue par la strategie fiscale a moyen terme. Avec une croissance accrue due a une augmentation de la participation des femmes au marche du travail, et a une inflation plus elevee due aux mesures de politique monetaire non conventionnelles, le ratio d’endettement serait vraisemblablement sur une pente resolument descendante d’ici la fin de la decennie, bien qu’il demeurerait quand meme autour de 200% en 2035.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129215036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The future of health and long-term care spending","authors":"Christine de la Maisonneuve, J. O. Martins","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JZ0V44S66NW","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JZ0V44S66NW","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the costcontainment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133127584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental policies and productivity growth: a critical review of empirical findings","authors":"T. Kózluk, Vera Zipperer","doi":"10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JZ2DRQML75J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1787/ECO_STUDIES-2014-5JZ2DRQML75J","url":null,"abstract":"The economic effects of environmental policies are of central interest to policymakers. The traditional approach sees environmental policies as a burden on economic activity, at least in the short to medium term, as they raise costs without increasing output and restrict the set of production technologies and outputs. At the same time, the Porter Hypothesis claims that well-designed environmental policies can provide a “free lunch” – encouraging innovation, bringing about gains in profitability and productivity that can outweigh the costs of the policy. This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the link between environmental policy stringency and productivity growth, and the various channels through which such effects can take place. The results are ambiguous, in particular as many of the studies are fragile and context-specific, impeding the generalisation of conclusions. Practical problems related to data, measurement and estimation strategies are discussed, leading to suggestions as to how they can be addressed in future research. These include: improving the measurement of environmental policy stringency; investigating effects of different types of instruments and details of instrument design; exploiting cross-country variation; and the complementary use of different levels of aggregation.","PeriodicalId":416490,"journal":{"name":"Oecd Journal: Economic Studies","volume":"49 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123394620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}