{"title":"To the Problems of Ensuring Energy and Climate Security in Germany","authors":"A. Kokeev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-14-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-14-23","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the most dire problems of ensuring the energy and climate security of Germany and the political measures taken by Federal Chancellor O. Scholz’s government formed in 2021. Considering the sharply exacerbated situation in international politics as of 2022, adopting urgent and radical measures in order to reduce Germany’s dependance on energy import and to diversify it, along with actions in climate change mitigation, all have become priorities for the new coalition government in Berlin. Current strategy is aimed at the combination of economic growth with reduced energy consumption, strict measures on energy saving and enhancing the share of renewable energy sources. A crucial part in creating and implementing this strategy is played by new members of the government from ‘the Greens’ – R. Habeck, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, and A. Baerbock, Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs. The relation between energetic and ecological spheres, their impact on internal and external security is analyzed. The author looks into exact measures and mechanisms that ensure energy and climate security, also while addressing questions about the overall perception of respective threats among German expert community and society. The conclusion made is that in present-day circumstances the problems of energy security, climate change mitigation and shifting to carbon-free economy greatly affect Berlin’s foreign policy and foreign economic strategies, as well as Germany’s relations with EU partners, Eastern European countries and Russia.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121076834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Role of the UN Peacemaking Operations in the Foreign Policy of Denmark in the 1990s: from an Exemplary Peacemaker to an Ardent Atlanticist","authors":"N. Belukhin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-3-41-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-3-41-50","url":null,"abstract":"Under the Cold War Denmark successfully employed the UN peacemaking operations to increase its own international status and strengthen relations with the key Western allies. The Nordic model of peacemaking was later considered as an example to be followed by other European states in the 1990s. As the role of the UN gradually declined during the 1990s and the UN peacemaking operations led to major failures, most notably the Srebrenica massacre and the Rwandan genocide, NATO, as well as the EU, started expanding their own activities in the sphere of peacemaking and peace enforcement. As a consequence, Denmark stopped considering the UN peacemaking as the main framework for international activism and started getting increasingly engaged in coalition operations and NATO operations as a means to win the favor of the key ally — the USA. Another factor that significantly contributed to Denmark’s growing atlanticism was the so-called \"defense clause\" which prevented Denmark from participating in the military dimension of the emerging CFSP within the EU and later CSDP. The Danish international activism acquired therefore a tangible military element which on the one hand enabled Denmark to punch above its weight, but at the same time became contradictory to the very ideas and goals which made international activism attractive for the Danish public in the first place. The initial value- and identity-driven UN peacemaking eventually became reduced to a means of accomplishing limited goals of status-seeking and ensuring the country’s place as a non-permanent member of the Security Council. It is thus becoming increasingly difficult for Denmark to reconcile the adherence to humanitarian diplomacy and Nordic \"Peace Brand\" with aggressive military activism.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"262 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115595413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prospects of Joseph Biden’s East Asian Policy","authors":"V. Boldyrev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-3-30-40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-3-30-40","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides a forecast of a potential Joseph Biden’s East Asian policy. The forecast is prepared using the recently developed indirect coding language (ICL), which allows to interpret any state as a system and to build models based on official strategic documents. Through this approach, governmental strategies and official documents accepted as the ones can be translated into specific codes, which are connected to particular subsystems characterizing different aspects of a state’s development. The dynamic character of the model is provided by a temporal approach. The author analyses the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance using the ICL to build a model matching the interpretation of the global and regional development by J. Biden and his administration. Dynamically J. Biden’s policy inherits basic goals of Donald Trump’s in general or partly. Substantial changes of priorities can only be observed in food-agricultural, ecological-environmental and military subsystems. It allows forecasting that in general the 46th president will follow major directions of his predecessor’s policy. ICL-modeling of the J. Biden’s interpretation of East Asia allows forecasting the next basic parameters of probable future US policy in the region. First, the Chinese vector will be its core while all other priorities will be regarded as subordinate with an exception to counteracting the regional threats posed by North Korea. Second, policy toward China as a complicated threat will create a dividing line in several dimensions between United States and its allies and partners on the one hand and PRC and its partners on the other hand. It will affect such fields as economy, trade, technology, energy industry, raw materials, environment and ecology, military development, law, civil and humanitarian affairs. The dividing line will acquire global character because the US will be pursuing their policy priorities in the relations with the Indo-Pacific allies and partners as well as NATO ones, as the Pacific region recently becomes more important. Third, there is less and less space for the US and China cooperation. In the nearest future, it is likely to be limited to the climate change problem, health and nuclear non-proliferation.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130863271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fronts and Forms of Public Diplomacy","authors":"U. Artamonova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-2-49-56","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-2-49-56","url":null,"abstract":"Public diplomacy becomes a more and more popular area of research due to several global trends: growing interdependence of states and the rise of transnational actors that urge governments to seek ways beyond their military and economic power to achieve their political goals; technological progress that makes information more accessible to the public, enabling international communication, thus increasing the importance of a dominating narrative; the rise of a human-centric approach placing the emphasis on individual people, protection and promotion of their rights, thus making public opinion more crucial to policy-makers than ever. However, there are still a lot of lacunae in the theoretical framework analyzing public diplomacy. Among them is the lack of a clear widely accepted classification of activities that fall into the area of public diplomacy. Some researchers choose to avoid typology altogether, others provide academic community with a variety of overlapping and contradicting approaches and terms, such as “dimensions”, “types”, “media”, “frameworks”, etc. After carefully studying related publications of international and Russian researchers, analyzing them and defining most common trends, the author proposes her own way to classify public diplomacy activities via two synergetic typologies. The first one offers a division by fronts based on the principal of the final goal of each front of public diplomacy: e.g. relationship-building activities and agenda-setting to influence the news. The second one implies a division by forms based on the principal of the general shape of the main types of public diplomacy activities: e.g. cultural diplomacy, international broadcasting. The author highlights that this approach does not involve multiplication of public diplomacy types based on the instrument (e.g. gastro-diplomacy, twitter-diplomacy, sport diplomacy), since each form may incorporate several instruments and the particular toolkit may change in time. The article suggests using both typologies for comprehensive research of public diplomacy (either in a case-study or for a theoretical model). However, a front-based classification can be more useful for studies related to strategic planning, long-term and short-term political goals of government, whereas a form-based classification can be more useful for researchers who focus on measuring a country’s public diplomacy effectiveness or seek to attribute a new instrument of public diplomacy","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114552872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Conflict-Free Arctic”: Pro et Contra","authors":"E. Labetskaya","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-34-46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-34-46","url":null,"abstract":"Analyzing the increasing tension in the world and the Trans-Arctic (the transnational political space of the Arctic), the author emphasizes the presence of a “dormant conflict gene” in the region and the need for Russia to take it into account when implementing its chairmanship in the Arctic Council (2021-2023). Not accepting the opinions that existed over the past decade about the Arctic as a “conflict-free region”’, the author identifies a range of threats fraught with the awakening of the “conflict gene”. Since the Trans-Arctic is a subsystem of global interstate relations with their crises and conflicts, the author considers the laws of its development and functioning through the foreign policy activities of states, which crucially determine whether the possibility of conflict will be realized or not. The increased military and strategic attention to the region by the USA and NATO, the revision of the regional strategies by other Arctic countries, as well as the expanding presence of non-regional countries in the Arctic, together reflect the growing conflict potential of the Trans-Arctic. The author explains why saying that the region in the XXI century remains free from military confrontation means wishful thinking. Criticizing the view of the Arctic through “rose-colored glasses” that soften the landscape of the hybrid war platz in the Arctic, the author recalls her interviews with the commander-in-Chief of the Joint Armed Forces of the Warsaw Pact Member States, Marshal of the Soviet Union Viktor G. Kulikov. Analyzing the “dormant conflict gene” in the Arctic, it is important to remember that the Trans-Arctic is a virtual bond of two other transnational political spaces, known as Trans-Atlantic, Trans-Pacific. Special attention is paid to the “dormant conflict gene” in the Trans-Arctic in the context of Washington-led NATO, which in 2009 declared the Arctic a strategically important region, requiring a rethinking of NATO's military doctrine, taking into account the geopolitical realities of the XXI century. The paper uses the case-study methodology, a systematic approach, discourse analysis, the author's 15-year journalistic baggage of VIP interviews and her own observations on the “fields” of international forums.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"200 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124474928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Problems and Prospects","authors":"D. Selezneva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-61-73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-61-73","url":null,"abstract":"Originally slated for spring 2020, the Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons took place from August 1 to 26, 2022. The Conference was meant to have an important symbolic significance due to it being initially scheduled to take place in the same year as the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the NPT and the 25th anniversary of its indefinite extension. As expected, the Review Conference ended without an outcome document, but the states parties came rather close to achieving a consensus. The main obstacle was the wording of the outcome document related to the situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The atmosphere at the Tenth NPT Review Conference was heavy. In addition to ‘chronic’ issues that have plagued the review process for decades, the states parties faced a severe European security crisis fomented by the events in and around Ukraine. The new 2023-2026 NPT review cycle will once again challenge the NPT member states and their resolve to cooperate and work together towards a common goal. Now, more than perhaps ever, it is important to preserve the NPT and the international non-proliferation regime and lay the groundwork for future cooperation that will take place after the current Ukrainian crisis reaches a settlement. It would be highly beneficial if states prepared certain deliverables in advance of the next NPT members meeting. That could include further negotiations on the US-Russia arms control and strategic stability, the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iranian nuclear program and talks on the establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and other Weapons of Mass Destruction.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121517228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Wars in the World Orders’ Structure","authors":"A. Fenenko","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-13-36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-13-36","url":null,"abstract":"In modern political science, there is an increasing interest in studying a cyclic nature of global processes. The methodology of cyclism, popular in sociology in the first half of the 20th century but neglected due to the 1950s liberal tradition, is seeing a renaissance nowadays. One of the tendencies in political science and international relations has been research on a cyclic pattern in military history: militaristic ‘waves’ or ‘cycles’ of repetitive wars. In this study, the author makes an attempt to link the problem of war being a cycle with a theory of world orders. As the basis of the article’s methodology, the author chooses a theory of a German military history classic Carl von Clausewitz about total and limited wars repeating. According to Clausewitz, these wars differ in political goals: a total war is aimed at destroying an enemy as a political entity, while a limited war aims at forcing an enemy to compromise. In the article an attempt is made to merge the theory of alternation of total wars and limited ones with the theory of world orders as a set of rules and norms of interstate cooperation in a certain historical period. The author proves that total and limited wars play different roles in the history of international relations. Total wars mean the destruction of established world orders and the creation of new ones. These wars determine the new balance of power: new rules of cooperation and new legitimacy of world order. Limited wars serve as a mechanism of regulating world order: wars for adjustments in the balance of power. Thus, the cyclic mechanism of wars appears to be a result of world orders’ self-development logic.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125445715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"AMERICAN CINEMA AS AN INSTRUMENT OF THE US PUBLIC DIPLOMACY","authors":"U. Artamonova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2020-2-110-122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2020-2-110-122","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"122 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114987672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An Asymmetric Model of Nuclear Deterrence","authors":"A. Fenenko","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-3-13-29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-3-13-29","url":null,"abstract":"The article explores the concept of an asymmetric model of nuclear deterrence. The issue of asymmetric nuclear relations is one of the most productive in the theory of nuclear deterrence. By asymmetry we mean disparity in military power between the subjects of deterrence, when the weaker subject deters the stronger one. All of the official nuclear states have tried the components of such a policy, France and China exercising its fuller capacity. In the bipolar period, nuclear deterrence was relatively simple. The two superpowers sought to deter the opponent from taking certain actions by means of a nuclear threat. However, in the early XXI century, traditional deterrence is replaced by a compellence (coercive) policy aimed at forcing the opponent to commit certain actions that he would not commit otherwise. How the potential future revisionists can use coercion policy is an issue still beyond the scope of our rationalization. The author believes that they could indeed pursue such policy and could create a concept of asymmetric deterrence in three variants: 1) the use of nuclear weapons as a “guarantor” of their security in the course of expansion; 2) modernization of the “limited nuclear war” concept; 3) non-use of nuclear weapons alongside with the abandonment of the nuclear deterrence concept (modeled on the chemical weapons during World War II). However, the theory of asymmetric nuclear deterrence is still being developed at present, and therefore has been applied mainly at the political level. We can identify two issues emerging within the theory, both of which are of practical significance: 1) the weaker agent can deter the stronger adversary despite the military disparity between them; 2) whether the stronger agent is able to ward from the weaker counterpart. Looking back in history, we can observe, at least, four scenarios of the emergence of revisionist powers: – the French scenario: when a state aiming at supremacy fails to achieve it through a number of local conflicts and instead attempts to gain global leadership; – the German scenario: when a super state with great military power feels offended and struggles to assert its place in the sun, or rather in the world; – the Italian scenario: when a regional state, which does not boast great military power, starts a territorial expansion; – the Japanese scenario: when a previously small and, by default “insignificant” state, builds up its great military power and threatens the world with its revisionist policy. It is not possible yet to predict the mechanism of nuclear deterrence in today’s world or foresee where we shall expect the emergence of revisionist states. However, what we do learn from history is that such revisionist powers will be eager to promote their ambitions at any cost. It is quite difficult to imagine now what will happen if a revisionist state does not believe in another country’s readiness to deliver a nuclear strike. Similarly, what will happen if such a revisionist r","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126303364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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