Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献

{"title":"THE ROLE OF FORECASTING STUDIES IN THE UN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS AGENDA","authors":"E. Kharitonova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-2-12-22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-2-12-22","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the role of forecasting studies in the planning, monitoring and achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and specific targets, put together in the UN General Assembly resolution “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development”. Forecasting and exploring potential development scenarios have been used as a basis for the SDGs development; as an instrument for strategic planning and providing recommendations to national governments; and also as a communication tool, aimed at attracting public attention to potential risks and mobilizing resources and funding. The author also focuses on the enhancement of the system of indicators used for monitoring progress in reaching SDGs and the influence that the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and later SDSs are having on the development of tools and methodology for monitoring and forecasting. Violent conflicts remain one of the most critical obstacles in moving towards SDGs, not only causing human deaths and suffering, but also ruining health and education facilities, economies and infrastructure and reversing development trends. Conflicts also are difficult to forecast, though different initiatives aimed and predicting, and ultimately preventing violent conflicts are being developed. Because of violence, data for monitoring and forecasting becomes either difficult to access or not available at all. This creates a risk of overlooking the needs of people affected by conflict due to the lack of reliable data. The article also examines an initiative aimed at forecasting long-term effects of violent conflict on development. There are different dimensions in terms of forecasting initiatives connected to the SDGs. The goals and respective targets themselves are based on the analysis of current trends and identifying possible scenarios of development by 2030. Both optimistic and pessimistic forecasts are used for communication with general public and national governments. Data from different countries can be used for identifying good practices and projecting similar trends on other regions. At the same time, the scale of activities connected to SDGs allows to enhance and streamline collection of data globally, thus providing a basis for future forecasting efforts. About the author: Elena M. Kharitonova, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Senior Researcher, Sector of International Organizations and Global Political Governance, Department of International Political Problems.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"14 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114159133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES: SPATIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL DYNAMICS","authors":"D. Malyshev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-3-23-36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-23-36","url":null,"abstract":"The article is focused on the major directions of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) formation and development. The author uses systemic analysis and extrapolation to examine these processes in spatial and organizational perspectives and identify the possibilities and prospects for emergence of an international region within the CIS on different stages of its institutional establishment. Special attention is given to the dynamics and the current state of the CIS as an international organization as well as to the key challenges its member states are facing. The article considers existing conflict zones in the CIS and their impact on the inter-state relations within the Commonwealth.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"396 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133427018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A EUROPEAN PATH OF MOLDOVA: ILLUSIONS AND REALITY (SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES)","authors":"V. Vasiliev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-3-59-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-59-72","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the influence exercised by Germany, the European Union, the USA, and Russia on Moldavia’s home and foreign policy in the context of integration processes in Europe and in the post-Soviet territories. The analysis of the causes of Kishinev’s failures in carrying out the reforms testifies to the mistakes made by Germany, the EU, the USA, and the Russian Federation due to the underestimation of the Moldavian oligarchic clans which seized the key posts in the governmental structures. While relying on the support from Russia, the EU and the USA, the parliamentary majority in Moldova succeeded in bringing into being a governmental coalition composed of the Party of Socialists and the right-wing block ACUM. The compromise opens prospects for a mutually beneficial cooperation of Moldova with Russia, the CIS, the EAEU, the EU, and the USA. The statement by Chancellor A. Merkel in June 2019 as to the absence of trustworthy information about the depth of political crisis in Moldova is either an evidence of poor performance by German diplomats, or an evidence of Berlin’s deliberate disregard of the activities by political forces in Moldova who are identifying themselves as pro-European. One thing is clear: having seen the endorsement of the Kiev regime by Germany, the EU and the USA, the oligarchs in Moldova also decided to assume the reins of authority within the country. Meanwhile the pronouncements by the head of the government M. Sandu on the possibility of holding out-of-term parliamentary elections and the supposed viability of the government that can last only one year encourage the experts in their assumptions that there are profound differences inside the coalition. Therefore, any forecasts of the future of the coalition between socialists and the right-wing forces seem difficult to make. Contradictions between the participants in the governmental alliance, for example regarding the approaches to the solution of the conflict in Transdniestria, may act as a catalyst on the out-of-term elections to the Moldavian parliament. Apprehensions concerning the likely resignation of the government of parliamentary majority composed of socialists and the right-wing forces headed by Premier Maia Sandu (the right-wing bloc) came true. According to the experts, she did not seek agreement with her socialist partners in the coalition when planning to update the legislative procedure for appointing Prosecutor General. Nor she consulted the members of her own party. A step of this kind could have strengthened the positions of the government’s right-wing bloc and secure a favourable head-start for the Premier when launching the Republic’s presidential elections of 2020.Maia Sandu’s government was fired by means of the no confidence vote lodged by the socialists in parliament.   The new government of Moldova headed by Prime Minister Iona Kiku (no party affiliation) declared its intention to pursue reforms in the fields of economy, justice, stat","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133357123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DEVELOPMENT OF CRYPTOASSETS ECOSYSTEM: NEW TRENDS","authors":"A. Maslennikov","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-3-51-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-51-58","url":null,"abstract":"The number of actively traded cryptoassets reached 2348 in October 2019, though the largest cryptocurrency bitcoin still remains at the core of the crypto ecosystem as it accounts for about two-thirds of the ecosystem’s total market capitalization. The article shows that despite persistently high level of cryptocomplex concentration the role of crypto assets other than bitcoin has been increasing since mid-2018 at least in three aspects. First, tether overtook bitcoin in trading volume. Second, ethereum caught up with bitcoin as a price leader for other cryptocurrencies. During Jul. 2018 – Oct. 2019 ethereum was the most correlated large cryptocurrency in terms of daily returns for 37% of actively traded cryptocurrencies, which is close to that of bitcoin (35%). That is a sharp contrast to the results for the period Jan. 2017 – Jun. 2018, when bitcoin was the price leader for more than 70% of actively traded cryptocurrencies. Third, the gap between the level of market risk of non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies and that of bitcoin itself is narrowing although the former still remains to be more risky than bitcoin. It is also shown that bitcoin and other major cryptoassets alike have become less risky during the last 1.5 years in terms of volatility of their daily returns. The potential inflow of funds into crypto complex from institutional investors, which currently prefer to stay away of cryptoassets, could accelerate the development of the crypto ecosystem. The author argues that recent trends in expanding the list of crypto instruments available to institutional investors, development of custodial services for cryptoassets and crypto market regulation in the United States could increase the attractiveness of cryptoassets for institutional investors, provided that large enough number of companies in different economic sectors chose to include cryptoassets into their business models.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116991022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"LONG-TERM FORECASTING IN THE US: INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT","authors":"S. Kislitsyn","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-2-23-32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-2-23-32","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the institutional aspects of American forecasting. Most attention is paid to non-governmental scientific organizations. The research is based on materials of leading US organizations and expert interviews. The first part of the study is devoted to the development of predictive researches in the US in 1950–1980. This period was expressed by works of RAND Corporation, World Future Society, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Huston University and others. An increase in the complexity and universality of forecasts has led to further inclusion of representatives from various target audiences. Forecasts have included issues of the social, legal and ethical agenda. More attention was paid to problems of education, employment, and redistribution of resources. The second part of this study is devoted to modern organizations and new methodologies. A current generation of forecasters is represented by the National Intelligence Council and its research “Global Trends\". The Millennium Project is another important organization. It provides an integrated and constantly updated forecast “State of the Future”. Attention is also paid to the Association of professional futurists. At the end of the study, three main conclusions are made. Firstly, an accurate prediction of future trends is not the main forecasting goal. The main task is to create a reasoned view of the future world. Secondly, there is no clear separation between forecasting and foresight which is a further development of predictive research. It uses an interdisciplinary approach and includes current economic, technological and social trends. Thirdly, the attraction of a wide range of experts (including foreign ones) increases the objectivity. This also affects the institutional structure of US organizations. The internationalization of forecasting has a scientific effect and contributes to the credibility of American institutions and the US “soft power”. About author:  Sergey V. KISLITSYN, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Research Associate, Sector of US Foreign and Domestic Policy, Center for North American Studies.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116998534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"THE EUROPEAN UNION’S NEW CENTRAL ASIA STRATEGY: POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITS OF THE “SOFT POWER”","authors":"I. Prokhorenko","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-4-68-80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-4-68-80","url":null,"abstract":"Используя пространственно-организационный подход и дискурс-анализ, автор анализирует интересы, приоритеты, потенциал и ресурсы “мягкой силы” Европейского союза в конкурентной борьбе за влияние в бывших советских среднеазиатских республиках – Киргизии, Узбекистане, Таджикистане, Туркменистане, а также Казахстане. Автор предлагает свою периодизацию стратегии ЕС в Центральной Азии начиная с распада Советского Союза, дает оценку новой стратегии ЕС в регионе, утвержденной Советом ЕС в июне 2019 г.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116683136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DISCOURSES OF DEVELOPMENT: SOCIAL AND HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS","authors":"A. Bardin, M. Sigachev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-4-24-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-4-24-41","url":null,"abstract":"Choosing a strategy of development is one of the key challenges the nation-states are facing. On the one side, such strategy should account for internal factors of development, such as preserving and strengthening national and cultural identity, fostering social cohesion, and providing all social groups with high quality of life and a pipeline for self-fulfillment. On the other hand, it has to offer answers to the questions posed by external factors – foremost, by numerous global challenges, from climate change to international terrorism. The majority of the world community, under the auspices of UN agencies, has accepted the sustainable development concept (SDC) as the basis for responding to these challenges. Similarly, the SDC has been at the forefront of scientific discourse on development in the recent years. However, like any theory, SDC has a number of limitations and inner contradictions, which are worth studying. As some researchers point out, the SDC is, in its essence, a technocratic theory: therefore, the higher analyst is climbing on its theoretical steps, the more contradictions he meets. The article dwells on the social and humanitarian aspects of this problem through the prism of critical approaches to SDC. After a brief dive into the origins of the concept, the authors outline the focal points of its critique that include, but are not limited to the following contradictions. Firstly, the goal of achieving self-consistent and stable development contradicts the fact that the developing systems are, on the one hand, intrinsically unstable and non-linear and, on the other hand, prone to shocks produced by technological and social changes, economic and political shifts. Secondly, achieving equilibrium between the ecological and the economic components of development is highly difficult due to the essence of the established approach to development (economic growth through extensive technological modernization and/or industrialization). Attempts to solve this contradiction in the SDC framework often lead to various excesses: for instance, the radical interpretation of SDC, inspired by the idea of strict limitation of both economic and demographic growth, stimulates the processes of de-industrialization and depopulation. The authors point out the importance of avoiding such excesses; in this particular instance, it could be achieved by incorporating elements of anthropocentric approach into the model. This is closely related to the third key issue: finding a balance between various components of development requires paying much more attention to its ethical and moral aspects. These aspects are one of the key weak point of SDC, which does not address some of them at all. The authors also consider a number of other relevant concepts of development through the prism of their social and humanitarian potential. Among these concepts there are resilient development, which goal is to strengthen already existing social relationship; eco-centric d","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"486 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123399500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TO THE ISSUE OF ASSESSING STATES’ FOREIGN POLICY POTENTIAL IN FORECASTING STUDIES","authors":"I. Prokhorenko, A. Aleshin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-3-12-22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-12-22","url":null,"abstract":"The article introduces an approach to identifying a state’s foreign policy potential and its components. It aims to assess the dynamics of the foreign policy potential and analyze foreign policy in the context of forecasting logic of states’ foreign policy behavior. The authors offer their own interpretation of a state’s foreign policy potential as a multidimensional and historically entrenched set of foreign policy resources, which interact with one another in varying degrees, as assets, means, possibility and capacity of a state to efficient use of its tangible and intangible advantages and project its strength externally. They evaluate the prospects and limitations of quantitative factor analysis in assessing foreign policy potential of states and specific foreign policy resources. Using contemporary United Kingdom and Spain as examples, the authors identify key (systemic) factors playing the role in their foreign policy potential transformation. Identifying such factors and detection of long-term political trends and risks of country development provide opportunities of predictive estimates not only for the foreign-policy analysis of specific states, but in a broader context of regional and international political processes.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125571597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TECHNOLOGIES FOR ANALYSIS AND COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT AS AN INDICATOR OF PUBLIC SPHERE CHANGE IN RUSSIA","authors":"M. Kotlyarov","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-2-75-82","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-2-75-82","url":null,"abstract":"Изучено развитие российских программ по мониторингу средств массовой информации и социальных сетей, а также системы “Инцидент-менеджмент”. Прогресс этих технологий объективно отражает трансформацию публичной сферы в стране в течение последних 30 лет. Важнейшей тенденцией стало вовлечение в публичную сферу значительной доли населения, что продуцирует новые политические риски. Ответом на них стала разработка новых технологий управления коммуникациями в Интернете, а также усиление законодательного регулирования информационной сферы в России.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126184058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"RIGHT TURN OR THE NEW ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY","authors":"A. Badaeva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-2-61-74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-2-61-74","url":null,"abstract":"The article looks at the phenomenon of the modern right-wing radicalism in Germany. Special attention is paid to the emergence of the young and successful Alternative for Germany party, which became the largest opposition political force in the Bundestag after 2017 German federal election. Alternative for Germany is the first radical far-right party to get a substantial representation in parliament in the German post-war history. Firstly, this case shows the gradual legalization of far-right ideology in German society. Secondly, Alternative for Germany success can be seen as a part of possible German party political system conversion towards its further fragmentation against the backdrop of the CDU/CSU and the SPD low popularity and their inner-party disputes. “Undemocratic liberalism” of the political establishment on issues such as immigration and European integration also plays its role.  Finally, the entry of the far-right Alternative for Germany into the Bundestag presents a new challenge to Germany’s politicians and changes the political landscape in general, complicating the party contention, improving the discussions quality and shifting political agenda to the right. However, a number of land election campaigns and especially the outcome of the European Parliament election have demonstrated obvious difficulties for the party when it is trying to build a political coalition as well as have shown the AfD limitations in the context of the modern Germany political process. The lack of strategic perspective, the lability of the party voters self-identity along with the establishment stepping up and adopting or intercepting some of the political slogans hamper the ratings of the  German far right. Neither the intensification of the populist rhetoric nor the drift to the political center can help AfD to overcome its difficulties. The author pays special attention to the substantial rise in protest and nationalist sentiments in Eastern Germany that is reflected in the achievements of ultranationalist Pegida political movement, AfD and even neo-Nazi NPD party and also highlights profound differences between modern West and East Germany. About author: Anna S. BADAEVA, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Research Associate, Sector of Political Theory.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124221623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}