Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献

{"title":"COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FRENCH AND GERMAN PRIORITIES IN THE ELABORATION OF PESCO","authors":"P. Timofeev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-2-33-47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-2-33-47","url":null,"abstract":"The article focuses on the French and German approaches towards Permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) – a new EU defense initiative launched in 2017. The author shows PESCO as well as European integration became a result of the compromises of European states, led by both France and Germany. Following brief history of PESCO, the author compares two approaches towards PESCO objectives, content, concrete practical projects and correlation between PESCO and NATO. The author highlights common points in the positions of Paris and Berlin: their goal – strengthening the military-political potential of the EU in the world; their willingness to work together on specific and prospective projects (including modernization of combat helicopters and the creation of flying eurodrones) and understanding of PESCO as not an alternative for NATO. In the same time the author shows the specifics and the differences of both approaches, based on geography, economy and pragmatism, law and military traditions, competition for EU leadership. Dominating German approach is “inclusive” and more cautious: it aims at the progressive development of European integration in the military area, which, through joint political and economic efforts of all EU member states, should lead to a common defense policy. French approach being more “ambitious” aims at shaping a group of states led by France, capable of conducting interventions - thus solving offensive tasks. Two different philosophies determine distinct views on concrete projects: France is more proactive than Germany and shows a greater interest in projects related to the direct conduct of hostilities. Berlin is seeking to focus on more “technical” cases. Finally, Paris and Berlin see the PESCO relationship with NATO in different ways: PESCO is seen in Germany as an addition to the Alliance, while France avoids comparing both structures, perhaps planning to give PESCO more ambitious scope in the future. The author concludes the French-German cooperation in the work on PESCO looks promising and can strengthen EU defense convergence. At the same time, the article shows objective limitations that could stop or completely disrupt this project. About author: Pavel P. TIMOFEEV, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Senior Researcher, Sector of Regional Issues and Conflicts, Department of European Political Studies.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"99 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124909433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"GERMANY'S EURO-ATLANTIC POLICY: CONTINUITY AND RENEWAL","authors":"A. Kokeev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-1-45-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-1-45-58","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines important changes in Germany’s relations with the United States and NATO; identifies new trends in Berlin’s transatlantic policy and strategy and analyses the country’s actions aimed at deepening European integration and increasing the EU's independence in ensuring its own security. German-American relations under D. Trump are experiencing a profound and protracted crisis. Therefore, the emphasis in the defense strategy and security policy of the Federal Republic of Germany began to change. On the one hand, Germany has stepped up its participation in NATO’s military activities. On the other hand, a long-standing non-partisan consensus maintained in Berlin implies that in a crisis situation primarily political and diplomatic means are appropriate and that military measures are a last resort. Close coordination with the allies is essential. In connection with the unilateral US withdrawal from a number of international agreements important for Germany, Berlin’s concern over the unpredictability and inconsistency of the US actions with their European allies is growing. As a result Berlin has adopted a “balanced partnership” strategy towards the United States. Creation of a more independent Europe and a European Union of Security and Defense has become the German policy primary goal. Despite many controversies, France remains the most important pillar of the German politics’ European vector. The central point of the new Franco-German treaty of January 22, 2019 is an obligation to move towards a convergence of the two countries’ security strategies. PESCO program became the first notable result of such policy. The program is aimed at intensifying the European countries military-industrial cooperation. Berlin sees the program as a long-term possibility to enhance the European influence in the transatlantic alliance and increase Germany’s own responsibility in the defense sphere. In connection with the well-known US and NATO requirements, the question of increasing the Federal Republic of Germany defense budget has acquired particular urgency. Basing on growing international tensions and aggravation of NATO's relations with Russia, Berlin has substantially increased its military spending. But despite this, in the foreseeable future, Germany will remain far from fulfilling the requirement to reach the 2% GDP defense spending target by 2024 (the planned figure is less than 1.5%). Nevertheless no responsible politician in Germany would claim that even in the medium term Germany together with its EU partners will be able to ensure European security without close cooperation with the United States and NATO. At the same time, there are a lot of indications that important aspects of Berlin’s transatlantic policy are undergoing serious and largely irreversible changes. They are connected not only with the “Trump factor” and the Ukrainian crisis, but also with deeper shifts, including the growing influence and “challenge” of China. About auth","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"468 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121463703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"BUDAPEST AND BUCHAREST IN FRONT OF THE CHALLENGES OF UKRAINIAN INTERNAL POLITICAL PROCESSES","authors":"A. Smirnov","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-3-73-84","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-3-73-84","url":null,"abstract":"The political crisis that Ukraine has been experiencing since 2014 has become a test not only for Russia, but also for a number of Eastern European states. The reason for this is both territorial proximity to the focus of tension, and a special historically conditioned attitude to Ukrainian affairs. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the greatest similarity was observed in relations between independent Ukraine and Hungary and Romania. The similarity consisted of a close set of problems, the main of which was the presence of Hungarian and Romanian ethnic minorities living in the border areas. The article examines how the Ukrainian internal political processes of recent years have influenced these relations and what are the differences in the Budapest and Bucharest approaches to the mentioned problems. The obvious discrepancies existing in the Hungarian and Romanian politics in the “Ukrainian direction” are caused by a whole set of factors, each of them reflecting the development priorities of these states, the ideological attitudes of their ruling elites, institutional features and relevant interpretations of national interests. Among the most obvious differences, one should note the tight linkage of the Hungarian policy of supporting compatriots, consistently carried out in Ukrainian Transcarpathia, to the right-conservative course of the country's leadership, which is not observed in the case of Romania. In turn, the Romanian ethno-political ambitions are more complex, due to the priority geopolitical project implemented by official Bucharest in relation to Moldova. In general, the geopolitical component is very clearly expressed in Romanian foreign policy, which is largely due to the strengthening of the Russian presence in the Black Sea basin, especially noticeable after the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation. Accordingly, the attitude to the actions of Russia, perceived through the prism of the Ukrainian crisis, can serve as another indicator of the dissimilarity of the Romanian and Hungarian positions.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"210 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124726847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Theories of European Integration in Searching for Explanation of Disintegration","authors":"D. Moiseeva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-37-44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-37-44","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, four classical theories of European integration (realism, neofunctionalism, federalism and liberal intergovernmentalism) are revised in order to figure out their understanding of disintegration, its causes and possible outcomes. Up until recently, disintegration has been of little concern to European studies. Nonetheless, each of the theories is capable of contributing to explaining the disintegration process, all together they give a proper theoretical starting point for further conceptualization of the phenomenon. The article makes it evident that different theories have their own visions of reasons for creating supranational regimes, just like they view possible causes of these regimes’ downfall and transformation. Structural realism is finding the reasons for both integration and disintegration in the concepts of security, balance of power and outer threats. Federalism, on the contrary, focuses on internal political dynamics between member states and emphasizes common interests and values, ideology, economic inequality, cultural and linguistic homogeneity. Federalism explains possible EU disintegration through EU malfunctioning as a political system. Both aforementioned theories are limited by being state-centered, which cannot be said about neofunctionalism. Neofunctionalists imagine disintegration as a multi-level and multi-directional process that does not necessarily mean coming back to full national sovereignty. Finally, liberal intergovernmentalist approach views disintegration as a redistribution of power that cannot make a return to status quo ante. Each theory can provide us with its own insight on disintegration but can’t provide an overwhelming explanation. Nevertheless, further theorizing with classical theories as a starting point is yet to be done.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1439 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127443627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Joe Biden’s First Year in the White House","authors":"O. Bogaevskaya, A. Bunina, A. Davydov, E. Desyatsky, S. Dmitriev, V. Zhuravleva, S. Kislitsyn, E. Kirichenko, V. Kulakova, I. Mishin, A. Shlikhter","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-1-54-77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-1-54-77","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes major trends in domestic, social, economic, trade and foreign policy of the USA in 2021. The past year turned out to be unexpectedly successful for the Democratic administration of Joseph Biden, who managed to use his party's almost maximum control over the federal government to lay the legislative foundation for the implementation of one of the priority items on the election agenda and began the transformation of the foreign policy strategy of the US global leadership. His first year was really eventful — in the difficult conditions of the ongoing pandemic, he opened a new stage of social and foreign policy transformations. The current US President came to the White House with a large-scale social agenda, on which the Democratic Party has been working all 4 years of Trump's presidency in anticipation of revenge. The ambitious plans, in addition to fighting the pandemic, included the subsequent reform of the healthcare system launched by Barack Obama, ensuring racial equality and social justice, updating the country's long and seriously worn out infrastructure, launching a ‘green transition’ and reforming the country's immigration system. All these reforms are long overdue and really needed. However, since the beginning of the XXI century the reform efforts of presidents traditionally produce very little results — an average of one large-scale reform for each president. The list of changes required by the country is growing, but the speed of its implementation is only falling. The reason for this slowdown lies in partisan polarization and radicalization, which grew rapidly during the same period, shrinking the space for compromise, a key condition for reform efforts under the American separation of powers. The Democrats with J. Biden won their chance for a blitz in 2020, however, not only the Republicans, whose numerical minority made it possible to worry less about their resistance, but also the unity of the Democratic Party itself, were on the way to its implementation. Over the past four years, the left wing of the party has expanded its membership in Congress and has become a powerful force, ready to resist even its own president. The large-scale social agenda proposed by J. Biden during the election campaign, which implies the expansion of the social responsibility of the state, eventually caused serious objections from both left-wing Democrats and Republicans. The first considered it insufficient, for the second it offered too revolutionary changes. Biden's centrist position in the face of radicalization proved to be more of an obstacle to pushing forward reforms than an opportunity to implement them. As a result, all participants had to compromise. Paradoxically, radicalization, which destroyed opportunities and room for compromise, itself became a compromise factor in a situation where changes could be too drastic for both the government itself and society. Finally, the Biden administration was able to seize a unique ","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125561837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Romania’s Interests in South-Eastern Europe and Cooperation with Turkey","authors":"T. Bitkova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-57-68","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-57-68","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with Romania’s foreign policy vectors in South-Eastern Europe regarding its membership in NATO and in the European Union. It is noted that the main foreign policy vector of Bucharest in the region is an alignment with the Republic of Moldova and a prospect of these two states uniting. The role of Romania is presented in a platform for negotiations which is the South-Eastern European Cooperation Process (SEECP), in the Three Seas Initiative, the Bucharest Nine Initiative and in the Romania –Poland– Turkey trilateral dialogue. The place of the Black Sea region in ambitions of the Romanian leadership and its significance in a strategic partnership between Romania and the Republic of Turkey are revealed. The author notes that the Balkans are not a priority vector of Romanian foreign policy, but the Western Balkan states are always present in Bucharest’s objects of attention, since here, as well as in the Black Sea region, global players are present, including Russia, a country Romania’s relations with has been in a critical condition for many years. In regards to the Romania’s relations with the Western Balkan countries, cooperation between Romania and Serbia stands out. Despite the pressure from Brussels, Romania supports Serbia in not wanting to tolerate the self-declared independence of Kosovo. Different approaches to policies of the Russian Federation are the reason behind the inconsistencies in the Romanian-Serbian relations. Romania does not possess enough recourses to lead an independent activity in the Balkans region and it mainly integrates in the policy of the European Union and the USA. Turkey pursues a policy of increasing its influence in the Balkans, with the cultural strategy of reconstruction of the Turkic world being one of the evident manifestations of the policy. The Romanian leadership abstains from any comment on this topic. Having not the same weight in world politics, Romania and Turkey на декларативном уровне demonstrate complete trust in one another and mutual understanding on a declarative level, but, according to the analysis of foreign policy platforms and partners’ particular political acts, their relations develop in the context of varying and sometimes even opposite approaches to a list of crucial international events.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126627040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AUSTRALIAN FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY: MIDDLE POWER IN A HIGHLY COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT","authors":"A. Aleshin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2020-2-63-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2020-2-63-75","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114754281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"KOSOVO CONFLICT AND FRANCE’S ROLE IN ITS RESOLUTION","authors":"P. Sokolova, P. Timofeev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-4-50-67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-4-50-67","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128036226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Church Split in the Republic of North Macedonia: The Foreign Policy Dimension","authors":"A. Ponomareva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-43-62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-43-62","url":null,"abstract":"The unexpected reconciliation of the Serbian Orthodox Church with the Macedonian ‘schismatics’, which took place in May 2022, determines the relevance of the retrospective analysis given in the article of this church conflict that has lasted more than half a century in the Republic of North Macedonia. Using the historical-genetic method, the underlying reason is revealed and the dynamics of the conflict that unfolded between the Serbian Orthodox Church and the Macedonian Orthodox Church – Archdiocese of Ohrid – is traced. With the use of the realistic approach to international relations and the hypothesis of maintaining a close connection between the church and state in the Balkans, the author identifies the key parties to the conflict, which, in addition to Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia, include Bulgaria, Greece, the Patriarchate of Constantinople, and describes the evolution of the strategies chosen by these parties to conduct. At the same time, the focus of the study is not the theological dimension of the subject in question, but its foreign policy implications. The history of the church schism is considered in the broader context of the political elites of the Republic of North Macedonia finding the solution to the task of integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, the possibilities of using the church factor in the reaching of geostrategic goals are shown. It is stated that the reasons that pushed the hierarchs of the Serbian Orthodox Church to reach agreements with the Macedonian ‘schismatics’ lie in the dimension of foreign policy, and the discussion of the status of the Ohrid Archdiocese was one of the elements of the struggle for influence in the Balkans, both regional and non-regional players. By its decision to support the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox Church – Archdiocese of Ohrid, the Serbian Orthodox Church has demonstrated the recognition of a specific Slavic-Macedonian national identity, which is questioned in the official historical narratives of Greece and Bulgaria, and, at least on the Balkan track, the papist aspirations of the Patriarchate of Constantinople were limited. Ultimately, the pragmatic position of the Serbian Orthodox Church did not allow the Macedonian Orthodox Church – Archdiocese of Ohrid to be turned into an instrument for realizing the interests of the Phanar supported by Western countries and took away the conflict potential from the topic that could contribute to the political demarcation of Serbia and the Republic of North Macedonia. Nevertheless, in the prognostic part of the conclusion, a high probability of ‘church wars’ resuming is stated, but with a new, not united by Orthodoxy, list of participants, namely containing representatives of the Albanian and Macedonian communities.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115392902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Aspects of the European Green Deal","authors":"M. Strezhneva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-13-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-13-23","url":null,"abstract":"The climate policy of the European Union became the key priority for the European Commission, headed by Ursula von der Leyen. This article analyses both its internal and external dimensions, while concentrating on the finances of the European Green Deal, the multiyear strategy for the EU socio-economic development. The methods are demonstrated which the EC employs to mobilize public and private capital for the realization of the green transit, including the financial instruments designed to assist businesses when investing in clean energy and industry. The notion of ‘sustainable’ investment is specified that Brussels is guided by when working out its financial decisions. The EU taxonomy, a green classification system that translates the EU's climate and environmental objectives into criteria for specific economic activities for investment purposes, is presented. The research reveals how the market and regulatory powers of the EU are brought to bear in rolling out its controversial Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. By means of this transnational taxation Brussels hopes to avoid carbon leakage: the situation that allegedly may occur if European carbon-intensive businesses were to transfer production to other jurisdictions with laxer emission constraints. Yet a lack of flexibility in applying the CBAM is causing concern in many countries of the world, including the USA, Brazil, South Africa and China. In EU-Russia relations in particular, it risks increasing political tensions and/or causing trade retaliation due to low levels of mutual trust. Russia developing energy transition plans of her own, her efforts in this respect are now visibly stimulated by the declared EU intention to externalize its regulatory practices. At the same time, Moscow perceives this externalization as an imposition which is most unwelcome and hurts Russia disproportionally. Presumably, the European Union could put more effort in negotiating and developing this latest European initiative with international partners to win new willing ears for it.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114650697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}