Joe Biden’s First Year in the White House

O. Bogaevskaya, A. Bunina, A. Davydov, E. Desyatsky, S. Dmitriev, V. Zhuravleva, S. Kislitsyn, E. Kirichenko, V. Kulakova, I. Mishin, A. Shlikhter
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The current US President came to the White House with a large-scale social agenda, on which the Democratic Party has been working all 4 years of Trump's presidency in anticipation of revenge. The ambitious plans, in addition to fighting the pandemic, included the subsequent reform of the healthcare system launched by Barack Obama, ensuring racial equality and social justice, updating the country's long and seriously worn out infrastructure, launching a ‘green transition’ and reforming the country's immigration system. All these reforms are long overdue and really needed. However, since the beginning of the XXI century the reform efforts of presidents traditionally produce very little results — an average of one large-scale reform for each president. The list of changes required by the country is growing, but the speed of its implementation is only falling. 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Abstract

The article analyzes major trends in domestic, social, economic, trade and foreign policy of the USA in 2021. The past year turned out to be unexpectedly successful for the Democratic administration of Joseph Biden, who managed to use his party's almost maximum control over the federal government to lay the legislative foundation for the implementation of one of the priority items on the election agenda and began the transformation of the foreign policy strategy of the US global leadership. His first year was really eventful — in the difficult conditions of the ongoing pandemic, he opened a new stage of social and foreign policy transformations. The current US President came to the White House with a large-scale social agenda, on which the Democratic Party has been working all 4 years of Trump's presidency in anticipation of revenge. The ambitious plans, in addition to fighting the pandemic, included the subsequent reform of the healthcare system launched by Barack Obama, ensuring racial equality and social justice, updating the country's long and seriously worn out infrastructure, launching a ‘green transition’ and reforming the country's immigration system. All these reforms are long overdue and really needed. However, since the beginning of the XXI century the reform efforts of presidents traditionally produce very little results — an average of one large-scale reform for each president. The list of changes required by the country is growing, but the speed of its implementation is only falling. The reason for this slowdown lies in partisan polarization and radicalization, which grew rapidly during the same period, shrinking the space for compromise, a key condition for reform efforts under the American separation of powers. The Democrats with J. Biden won their chance for a blitz in 2020, however, not only the Republicans, whose numerical minority made it possible to worry less about their resistance, but also the unity of the Democratic Party itself, were on the way to its implementation. Over the past four years, the left wing of the party has expanded its membership in Congress and has become a powerful force, ready to resist even its own president. The large-scale social agenda proposed by J. Biden during the election campaign, which implies the expansion of the social responsibility of the state, eventually caused serious objections from both left-wing Democrats and Republicans. The first considered it insufficient, for the second it offered too revolutionary changes. Biden's centrist position in the face of radicalization proved to be more of an obstacle to pushing forward reforms than an opportunity to implement them. As a result, all participants had to compromise. Paradoxically, radicalization, which destroyed opportunities and room for compromise, itself became a compromise factor in a situation where changes could be too drastic for both the government itself and society. Finally, the Biden administration was able to seize a unique moment of democratic control over federal power to implement an important part of its social agenda. Biden's original plan to reform the country's infrastructure has seriously changed over this year of cross-party agreements, but in general, the adopted ‘Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act’ launches large-scale changes in several areas at once, on which the further development and competitiveness of the United States depend. Despite a relatively quick recovery, the US economy continues to face major challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic: high inflation and disruption in production chains. The new model for maintaining and expanding US global leadership, formulated and gradually implemented by Joe Biden’s administration, is based on the creation of a single ideological and technological space of allies in opposition to China and other authoritarian states challenging the US. The anti-Chinese vector determines the main directions of the US foreign policy strategy: returning to traditional allied relations, expanding alliances, ending protracted military campaigns, minimal strategic involvement in long-term conflicts, targeted interaction with competitors and adversaries, and controlled confrontation. This article is a result of a collective multi-aspect research of transformations taking place in the US on a real-time basis. The analysis is built methodologically on the systemic approach to studying American political, social and economic trends, both domestically and on an international level.
乔·拜登入主白宫的第一年
文章分析了2021年美国国内、社会、经济、贸易和外交政策的主要趋势。过去的一年对约瑟夫•拜登(Joseph Biden)领导的民主党政府来说出人意料地成功,他成功地利用民主党对联邦政府几乎最大程度的控制,为实施选举议程上的一项优先事项奠定了立法基础,并开始转变美国全球领导地位的外交政策战略。他上任的第一年确实是多事的一年——在当前大流行的困难条件下,他开启了社会和外交政策变革的新阶段。现任美国总统带着一项大规模的社会议程来到白宫,特朗普执政四年来,民主党一直在为报复而努力。这些雄心勃勃的计划,除了抗击疫情外,还包括奥巴马随后启动的医疗体系改革,确保种族平等和社会正义,更新该国长期严重破旧的基础设施,启动“绿色转型”,改革该国的移民制度。所有这些改革都是姗姗来迟的,也是真正需要的。然而,自21世纪初以来,历届总统的改革努力通常收效甚微,平均每位总统只进行一次大规模改革。国家所要求的改革越来越多,但实施的速度却在下降。这种放缓的原因在于党派分化和激进化,这在同一时期迅速增长,缩小了妥协的空间,而妥协是美国三权分立下改革努力的关键条件。j·拜登(J. Biden)领导的民主党赢得了在2020年发动闪电战的机会,然而,不仅共和党人(其数量上的少数派使他们可以不那么担心他们的阻力),民主党本身的团结也在走向实施闪电战的道路上。在过去的四年里,该党的左翼扩大了其在国会中的成员,并已成为一股强大的力量,甚至准备抵制自己的总统。拜登在竞选期间提出的大规模社会议程,意味着扩大国家的社会责任,最终遭到了左翼民主党和共和党的严重反对。前者认为它不够充分,后者则认为它带来了过于革命性的变化。事实证明,面对激进主义,拜登的中间立场更多的是推动改革的障碍,而不是实施改革的机会。结果,所有参与者都不得不妥协。矛盾的是,激进主义破坏了妥协的机会和空间,而在这种情况下,变化对政府本身和社会都可能过于剧烈,激进主义本身却成为了妥协的因素。最后,拜登政府能够抓住民主控制联邦权力的独特时机,实施其社会议程的重要组成部分。拜登最初的基础设施改革计划在今年的跨党派协议中发生了严重变化,但总的来说,通过的“基础设施投资和就业法案”同时在几个领域进行大规模变革,这是美国进一步发展和竞争力所依赖的。尽管复苏相对较快,但美国经济继续面临新冠肺炎大流行带来的重大挑战:高通胀和生产链中断。拜登政府制定并逐步实施的维持和扩大美国全球领导地位的新模式,其基础是建立一个单一的意识形态和技术空间,由盟友来反对中国和其他挑战美国的威权国家。反华向量决定了美国外交政策战略的主要方向:回归传统的盟友关系,扩大联盟,结束旷日持久的军事行动,尽量减少对长期冲突的战略介入,与竞争对手和对手进行有针对性的互动,以及控制对抗。这篇文章是一个集体的多方面的研究,在实时的基础上发生在美国的转变的结果。该分析在方法论上是建立在研究美国国内和国际政治、社会和经济趋势的系统方法之上的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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