Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献

{"title":"NEW IN FOREIGN POLICY ORIENTATION OF THE LEADING PARTIES IN GERMANY","authors":"M. Khorolskaya","doi":"10.20542/afij-2019-1-70-85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2019-1-70-85","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122117989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Innovation Ecosystem: Monitoring of State in 2020 – First Half of 2021","authors":"I. Kirichenko, A. Kravtsov, Z. Mamedyarov, N. Sheliubskaya, A. Nikitin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-1-78-99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-1-78-99","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the main quantitative parameters of the global research and development (R&D) sector for 2020-2021 in the national, regional and sectoral dimensions; and also identifies the main directions of some world’s leading countries’ state policy in the field of science and innovation. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the entire global innovation ecosystem. A significant adjustment of innovation policy benchmarks in favor of R&D in health care and information and communication technologies has been required. There has been a significant increase in the number and volume of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the biopharmaceutical sector. Due to the uncertain outlook of the global economy, the total number of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions (M&As), including in high-tech industries, dropped. However, as soon as the situation has improved, activity in this area began to recover. Changes have emerged due to the decline in economic activity in many countries and industries because of the restrictions associated with the pandemic. In the United States, for example, six of the top ten companies in patenting in 2020 showed a decline in relevant indicators. The authors analyzed the amount of R&D funding in the world’s leading countries and in particular in the US; studied the dynamics of IPOs in the world as a whole, by macroregions, by leading countries and by leading companies in terms of the amount of funds raised, as well as by technological areas, which most of the IPO companies belonged to. The most active companies in the US and EU patent offices were identified, as well as technological areas in which the greatest inventive activity was noted. The key program documents of the scientific and technical policy of the UNCTAD, China, the USA, India, Japan, the EU and Great Britain are examined.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116826212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Actualization of the Cuban Model of Social and Economic Development and Its Impact on National Foreign Policy","authors":"A. Checkmarev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-84-96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-84-96","url":null,"abstract":"The ‘actualization’ of the Cuban social and economic model is a set of measures taken by the Cuban government to improve the country's socio-economic situation by attracting foreign capital and developing the private sector of the economy. These reforms are unprecedented in the history of socialist Cuba, since the country's leadership has never resorted to such comprehensive and profound reforms before. These measures include partial revision of tenets of Cuban statehood that previously seemed immutable. Such metamorphoses executed by Havana, despite their domestic political nature, have had a significant impact on the country's foreign policy, its bilateral relations with key world actors, and have changed Cuba's role and status both at the global and regional levels. ‘Actualization’ was a well-timed response of the Cuban government to the revision of the foundations of U.S. regional policy in Latin America under B. Obama, which subsequently allowed the parties to begin the so-called ‘Cuban thaw’ in bilateral relations. The transformation affected relations between Havana and the European Union, which were institutionalized due to the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement and turned the EU into Caribbean state’s important investment and trade partner. China and countries of Latin America have also felt the effects of Cuba's socio-economic transformation. The evolution of Russian-Cuban relations which have undergone significant changes over the past two decades deserves particular attention in the context of ‘actualization’. A fold increase in bilateral trade turnover and the development of political dialogue between Moscow and Havana are markers of positive dynamics. However, it cannot be claimed that the Russian side has totally benefited from the Cuban socio-economic reforms, given the unique potential that Russia has in regard to Cuba.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129903593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Russian Approach to the Soft Power Concept","authors":"A. Kosiakina","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-63-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-63-75","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the Russian ‘soft power’ policy. The author gives her view on the ‘soft power’ phenomenon and practices and draws the line between related concepts of ‘soft power’ and ‘public diplomacy’, all while explaining the reasons for the special interest of the Russian central authorities in the concept for the last two decades, which is embodied in doctrinal documents on foreign affairs. Distinctive features of the country’s understanding of ‘soft power’ and its politics are highlighted.The institutional approach and organizational theory are widely used in the article. With their help, the activities of the main ‘soft power’ institutions functioning in Russian Federation, such as Rossotrudnichestvo (The Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation), Russkiy Mir Foundation and the Gorchakov Fund are analyzed.The author comes to the conclusion that the lack of a clear formal distribution of responsibilities between departments leads to interdepartmental inconsistency and even competition and significantly reduces the undoubted positive effect of their work.Besides, the article pays special attention to the tools and resources of the Russian ‘soft power’ policy. Apart from traditional tools like language, education, cultural and historical heritage, such new ones that have intensified or appeared due to COVID-19 pandemic are as follows: humanitarian aid and ‘vaccine diplomacy’. And finally, the author gives a forecast on Russian ‘soft power’ in connection with the events on the territory of Ukraine and comes to the conclusion that in the coming years it will be difficult to create an image of an attractive country abroad.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130990918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Afghan Crisis of the Future Greater Middle East","authors":"V. Zhuravleva, I. Ibragimov","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-83-97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-83-97","url":null,"abstract":"On October 20, 2021 the round table devoted to the crisis in Afghanistan was held at the IMEMO. Participants of the discussion were staff members the Center for North American Studies and the Laboratory ‘Center for the Middle East Studies’. Presented review, based on that round table, analyzes the key issues related to the current Afghan crisis. First of all, the revision of the approach to this problem by regional powers that have disagreements and contradictions between themselves. Moreover, special attention is paid to the changes of the US policy in the region and the consequences of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. Also, the article brings up questions regarding Taliban’s legitimacy and analyzes situation within the country at this stage. The views and interests were considered from various standpoints: as perceived by the main participants – the United States of America, Afghanistan, and the Middle Eastern countries involved one way or another – Turkey, Iran, Israel and the Arab states. The authors emphasize the fact that the Afghan crisis has created a new situation on a regional scale and a serious challenge for the international community primarily by the growth of the terrorist threat, the socio-economic crisis in Afghanistan and the escalation of the migration crisis. The main presenters were as follows: BELKOV Evgeny A., BOGACHEVA Anastasia S., DAVYDOV Alexey A., Zimin Ilya A., IBRAGIMOV Ibragim E., LAZOVSKY Stanislav O., SAMARSKAIA Liudmila M., SVISTUNOVA Irina A., TYUKAEVA Tatiana I. The review of the main conclusions made upon discussion was prepared by ZHURAVLEVA Victoria Y., Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Head of Center of the North American Studies, IMEMO (zhvika@imemo.ru, ORCID: 0000-0003-1911-625Х) and IBRAGIMOV Ibragim E., junior researcher of the Laboratory ‘Center of the Middle East Studies’ (ibragim07_93@mail.ru, ORCID: 0000-0001-9669-4243).","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"141 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123251768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Western Vector of Greece's Foreign Policy (Late 2010s – Early 2020s)","authors":"Y. Kvashnin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-45-56","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-45-56","url":null,"abstract":"One of the main features of Greek diplomacy is the combination of pro-Western orientation and the desire to act independently in a number of key issues, firmly defending national interests. In recent years, however, the western vector began to prevail. In ideology, this manifested itself in the positioning of the country as an outpost of Western civilization in the East, a defender of democratic values, operating in accordance with the interests of collective West. In security policy, the main efforts were aimed at creating a counterbalance to Greece's existential rival – Turkey. Not having sufficient resources for an ‘arms race’ with the eastern neighbour, the Greek authorities have shifted their focus to closer cooperation with major powers, as well as with regional actors seeking to curb Turkish ambitions. The idea of confronting ‘geopolitical revisionism’ has taken a prominent place in the political rhetoric of the conservative government, especially since the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. In economic sphere, Greece continues its policy aimed at becoming a key transit hub for transporting energy resources to Europe. Despite the fact that there are good reasons for strengthening ties with the West, the ultimate success of this strategy is not evident. In the Greek media, there is an increasing opinion that such a course will narrow the room for diplomatic maneuver. At the same time, the main task – to isolate Turkey – will not be implemented. In the future, imbalances in foreign policy may hinder the development of economic ties between Greece and non-Western countries (in the case of Russian-Greek relations, this is already happening), and this in turn will undermine the country's resilience to crisis processes in the world economy and politics.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126513158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"EU Defence Policies Through the Lens of Danish TV Debates","authors":"N. Belukhin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-46-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-46-60","url":null,"abstract":"Denmark held the referendum on removing the country’s EU-defence opt-out on June 1, 2022. The referendum has resulted in extensive televised socio-political discussions not only about integration opt-outs, but also about the upcoming development of the EU CSDP and whether its foreseeable future suits Denmark’s interests. The article analyzes the two rounds of television debates on the abolition of the defense opt-out broadcast on the leading national TV channel ‘DR1’. The ratio of utilitarian and value arguments of supporters and opponents of the abolition of Danish exceptions in the field of EU defense integration was considered. The arguments provided by the participants of the debates were divided into several groups regarding ‘Danish security’, ‘Denmark's influence in the EU’, ‘defense spending’, ‘compatibility between EU and NATO’, ‘solidarity with allies’ and other aspects. Unique arguments and statements that were difficult to attribute to one group or another are also highlighted. The television debates mirror Denmark's dubious position towards the EU – on the one hand, the desire for a stronger and more independent role for the EU in world politics and the EU's more substantial contribution to the regional stability, and on the other hand, reluctance to deepen defense cooperation and limited resources, with the latter raising a question of priorities between NATO and EU defence initiatives. During the debates the advocates for Denmark’s deeper integration within the EU CSDP stressed their strict adherence to intergovernmental approach in the field of defence cooperation.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121226700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Present and Future of Employment: Ibero-American Context","authors":"E. Ermolieva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-3-51-64","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-3-51-64","url":null,"abstract":"The world of work is changing rapidly. The impact of the current megatrends on the future of employment has been widely debated around the world and became a focus of numerous reviews of international organizations. The Sars-Cov-2 pandemic has added even more urgency to the discussion and has affected more countries, including Iberian Peninsula and Latin America. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic-induced lockdowns and related global recession of 2020 have created a highly uncertain outlook for the labor market and accelerated the arrival of the future of work. COVID-19 has shown us how rapid change can destroy jobs. But at the same time, it must be recognized that the labor market has fundamentally changed within just a few months of the pandemic with the spread of some non-standard employment such as tele- and platform work. Thus, the COVID-19 became a catalyst for the rapid changes that will define the future of the labor market in different parts of the world. But, as some results show, digital transformation in employment brought serious inequalities, called the digital divide with its multidimensional impact. For example, a new digital gap has emerged between the global North and the global South. Through these optics, the article attempts to summarize the results of studies that are monitoring how labor markets are changing in different regions of the world. And the main aim is to better understand the specifics of the situation in Spain, Portugal and Latin American countries which collectively are integral parts of the Ibero-American community. To achieve the goal, the principal tools of scientific analysis were used, including collecting and analyzing a significant body of empirical data from international sources and publications of national departments for labor and employment. The review helped to identify the basic features of the current moment and possible prospects in the development of the employment sector in Iberoamerica. Following the principle of comparative analysis research, the author comes to the conclusion that, on the one hand, the processes similar to the global trends are present, but, on the other hand, the peculiarities determined by the national characteristics of the Ibero-American content are quite obvious.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127757181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Problem of the UK Energy Security Before the Referendum on Brexit","authors":"T. Andreeva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-24-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-24-34","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the problem of ensuring the UK energy security since the 90s of the 20th century to the date (June 23, 2016) of referendum on the UK exit from the European Union (Brexit). The problem is considered in its evolution: from the moment of its emergence during the conservative government of John Major, via the attempts to define the different aspects of the problem and to outline ways to solve it by labour cabinets of Tony Blair (1997–2007) and Gordon Brown (2007–2010), and up to formulating the notion of ‘energy security’ and making concrete steps to strengthen the UK energy security during David Cameron – Nick Clegg coalition cabinet (2010–2015) and the conservative cabinet of David Cameron (2015–2016). The problem is scrutinized with the help of vast number of the official documents and White Papers on energy policy of British governments, the UK Ministry of Energy and Climate Change and the Foreign Office. The article shows that the problem of reducing greenhouse gases emissions as an important part of the international efforts for containment of global climate changes is one of the main challenges for the UK energy security and the key driving force behind diversification of the British energy sector. The author considers the rising dependence of the UK economic development, the prosperity of British consumers and industry on the guaranteed, affordable, secure supply of fossil fuels from the unstable countries of the world as the second important challenge in strengthening the UK energy security. The transition of the United Kingdom’s energy balance towards rapid implementation of the low-carbon technologies (the nuclear power and the renewable energy sources [RES]) is seen in the article as the way to meet two above-mentioned challenges and to strengthen the UK energy security.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"158 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114992484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The European Green Movement in Times of Crisis: New Approaches","authors":"T. Rovinskaya","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-24-33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-24-33","url":null,"abstract":"The article traces the ideological evolution of the European Green Movement from radical opposition to political conformism and pragmatism. Two fundamentally important moments characterize the development of “green” ideology in Europe: first, reliance on civil society and, second, an emergency/crisis as a necessary condition and impetus for development. Due to the belonging of the European ecological parties to the left wing of the traditional political spectrum, there is a convergence of political positions of the “Greens” and “Leftists” in Europe: nowadays, the party programs of the “Greens” are predominantly socio-ecological in nature. They are based on the Sustainable Development concept adopted in 1992 by the states of the world, which “reconciles” the environment with the economy. On the example of the German environmental party “Union 90/Greens”– the largest and most influential ecological party in the world – one can clearly see the development vector: from an alternative (opposition) political force to the third largest party in power (following the elections to the Bundestag in 2021), which became “the progressive force of the left-center”, the stronghold of the “green bourgeoisie”. The large-scale crisis of 2019–2021 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic played into the hands of the German Greens in the sense that it significantly contributed to a shift in priorities towards “green” politics and Green Economy in Western Europe and around the world, particularly as Germany is the main mastermind and beneficiary of the Green Deal in Europe. According to this trend, all ecological parties of Western Europe benefit from the crisis and are actually becoming parties of the political mainstream.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123455688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}