Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献

{"title":"Scientific Discourse Role in the UK National Security Strategy Transformation","authors":"A. Aleshin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-72-84","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-72-84","url":null,"abstract":"The research is devoted to the influence of scientific discourse on international relations. Three levels were identified - national foreign policy, interstate and supranational. This article focuses on a national-level study using the example of the UK. The withdrawal of the UK from the EU led to the transformation of the country's foreign policy identity. Today, in a new form and under new conditions, W. Churchill's idea of three equivalent roles for the UK – influence in Europe, in the Commonwealth and cooperation with the USA – is being re-incorporated into it. The scientific and expert community occupies an important place in the process of forming UK's foreign policy identity. Due to the authority of a number of British think tanks and the deep involvement of scientists in the process of national strategic planning, it plays a significant role in the planning of UK government policy. In the research, using the method of discourse analysis, the example of seven leading think tanks, and the approaches of the scientific and expert community to understanding the key problems and transformation of the UK national security strategy were studied. The analysis revealed a split in the positions of British researchers both on the problem of the UK’s future place in the world, and on the issue of government measures necessary to implement the most beneficial scenarios for the country's national interests. The impossibility of accurately predicting the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and relations with the EU in the field of security gives rise to polar points of view about the UK's future foreign policy subjectivity. According to the author, all the think tanks use the methodology of political realism in their research, which determines the primacy of the factors of power in the British scientific discourse. This limits the possibilities for long-term planning of foreign policy. The author sees the mostly tactical, adaptive and reactionary nature of the approaches of the British political elites to foreign and defense policy. However, the 2021 Comprehensive Review revealed a tendency towards a clearer understanding and formulation by political elites of the country's place in the world, which, including thanks to scientific political discourse, will continue to develop.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130074858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Peculiarities of the Digital Transformation of the Polish Economy","authors":"A. Gabarta, E. Vinogradova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-23-31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-23-31","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the level of digitalization of the Polish economy and makes a comparison between it and that of other countries. The authors determine the role and place of Poland in the context of the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution, as well as the degree of participation of Polish enterprises in this process. The analysis of the digitalization process in Poland’s economy is based on the reports of international consulting companies and data from the Polish statistical service. The authors come to the conclusion that local companies do not make sufficient use of the opportunities that the Fourth Industrial Revolution offers them. Many of them do not have even the prerequisites for the automation and robotization of production, because they have not reached the final stage of the previous industrial revolution. It is important for Polish enterprises to succeed not only in consuming digital solutions, but most importantly in creating them. The level of digitalization of the Polish economy is fairly low compared to the world's leading economies. It will be quite difficult to change this situation, since the leaders in this field are not standing still, but moving forward. A significant problem on the way to digitalization of the Polish economy is the lack of trust in new technologies on the part of the Polish corporate leadership. The strength of the Polish economy is in the presence of domestic engineers, programmers and the basic elements of ICT infrastructure. But success in building the digital economy will primarily depend on government actions and decisions made by local corporations.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122196379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Healthy Life Expectancy in the Context of the United Nations Decade of Healthy Ageing","authors":"E. Syndyashkina","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-1-40-53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-1-40-53","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the dynamics of the healthy life expectancy (HALE) in the world, in the WHO European Region and in Russia. It provides cross-country comparisons, revealing the main trends in the dynamics of healthy life expectancy at birth and at older ages. The author notes that the most intense growth in healthy life expectancy can be observed in low-income countries; as wealth increases, growth in healthy life expectancy slows down. The author analyzes the differences in healthy life expectancy between the regions of the Russian Federation. It is noted that the inequality between Russian regions is higher compared to the inequality between groups of low- and high-income countries, between WHO regions, and between countries of the WHO European Region. Russia is one of the countries for which the territorial aspect of inequality in all its manifestations is of great importance. The article discusses various methods for assessing healthy life expectancy, adopted in international and Russian statistics. The study concludes that the HALE indicator used by WHO is optimal for assessing the performance of health systems, for monitoring the health situation of the population. The indicators calculated by Eurostat and Russian statistics are based on the population's self-perceived state of health. Self-perceived health status is essential for assessing the quality of life and determining the need for health care, social services and care, although it is subjective. This is especially important in terms of promoting healthy ageing. The process of population ageing in the world is accelerating more and more. Medical, social, economic, psychological problems associated with the ageing of the population are most acute in economically developed countries. Increasing healthy life expectancy, active longevity, and the development of the ‘silver economy’ are responses to the global demographic challenge of population ageing. Active longevity sets new directions for the development of various spheres of society: medicine, social protection, education and the labour market. At the same time, active longevity creates new types of inequality in these areas, associated with the availability of the necessary resources both at the country level and at the level of population groups and individuals.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121778379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Problem of the UK Energy Security During and after Brexit (March 2017–2022)","authors":"T. Andreeva","doi":"10.20542/afij-2023-1-45-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2023-1-45-57","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the problem of the ensuring the UK energy security during the UK exit from the European Union (Brexit) (March 28, 2017 – December 31, 2020) and after it (till 2022). The problem is considered in its evolution: from the cabinets of Theresa May (July 2016 – July 2019), via the activity of the Boris Johnson’s cabinets (July 2019 – September 2022), and up to the steps made by Liz Truss’s cabinet (September – October 2022) and by the current cabinet of Rishi Sunak (from October 25, 2022 till now) to strengthen the UK energy security. The article shows that the diversification of the British energy sector into the direction of growing use of low-cost, low-carbon electricity generation (on the nuclear power and the renewable energy sources) was a key for solving simultaneously several problems during and after Brexit. The quick development of the electricity generation by the renewable energy sources (especially by the construction of offshore wind and solar farms) helped to reduce the dependence of British economy on the fossil fuel supply from unstable countries of the world and from the EU and in this regard was considered by T. May’s cabinet as a mean to strengthen the UK’s position in Brexit negotiation with the EU. The successful development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources also facilitated the reduction of greenhouse gases emission (as a part of international efforts to mitigate global climate change) along with the UK economic growth and let the UK, as the first country in the world, set course for decarbonization of British economy by 2050. The author comes to the conclusion that the problems of reducing greenhouse gases emission and of reaching self-sufficiency by the British energy system have remained the main ones in ensuring the UK energy security after Brexit.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124752253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking EU Budget Allocations to the Rule of Law: the Case of Poland and Hungary","authors":"S. Kuvaldin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-2-38-48","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-2-38-48","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the possible introduction of the rule-of-law conditionality, linking the provision of payments from the EU budget with the observance of the principles of the rule of law by the Member States. It is noted that some other tools previously used to achieve integrity of values in the EU have proved to be inefficient. In particular, all attempts to impose sanctions provided for by Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union for violating the principles of the rule of law against Poland and Hungary have not yet led to any result. At the same time, one can see how different conditionalities for receiving funds or other benefits from the EU are becoming an increasingly common internal EU governance mechanism, although initially this tool was used mainly in building external relations. It should be noted that the possibility of budgetary sanctions is spelled out in the draft budget, but the mechanism for their introduction is not precisely defined. This is partly due to the need to reach a consensus at the EU summit, which agreed on the budget in July 2020. European leaders opted for vague language for the budget sanctions mechanism to be approved in principle. This once again shows the complexity of making tough decisions within the EU. Nevertheless, one can see the consistent actions of European structures and Member States to provide a new mechanism for the protection of European values. The economic nature of this mechanism, as well as its relative effectiveness in other areas, may increase the interest of a number of EU Member States in it. This creates a potential risk for the authorities of Poland and Hungary, which may lose some of the subsidies from the EU. However, it cannot be ruled out that the EU approach of seeking a compromise will prevail even after a new sanctions instrument appears at its disposal.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122176368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European Union Higher Education and Science Programs During the Covid-19 Pandemic","authors":"E. Kharitonova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-47-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-47-57","url":null,"abstract":"The author looks at the impact of the COVID-19 crises on the European higher education and scientific cooperation programs. During the pandemic the national governments announced strict lockdowns and other protective measures. Free movement across borders was hampered, university campuses mostly closed and many activities put on hold. In these circumstances participants of international exchange programs became particularly vulnerable: some were unable to move to their destination university or institution, others were experiencing difficulties returning to their home countries. Numerous logistical, administrative, health-related and other problems made the situation difficult for the students, professors and researchers, as well and for the staff responsible for the implementation of such programs. In response to this situation, the European Commission and its executive agencies issued guidelines for the participants, extended project deadlines and made other arrangements. At the same time, additional resources were channeled to digital education initiatives and to supporting research aimed at overcoming the pandemic, including diagnostics, treatment and prevention of COVID-19 and other related research fields. In the new program cycle the budget for the EU education and scientific cooperation programs, such as Horizon and Erasmus have been significantly increased and linked to the post-crisis recovery package. A new impulse has been given to the European education area and European research area. The author argues that despite serious problems caused by the pandemic itself and the lockdowns, the crisis became an additional factor for extending higher education and research programs and deepening integration efforts in these areas.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133849372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Budget Funding Priorities and Development Prospects of the US Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Y. Selyanin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-3-65-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-3-65-93","url":null,"abstract":"The US Government has initiated a large-scale activity on artificial intelligence (AI) development and implementation. Numerous departments and agencies including the Pentagon, intelligence community and citizen agencies take part in these efforts. Some of them are responsible for technology, materials and standards development. Others are customers of AI. State AI efforts receive significant budget funding. Moreover, Department of Defense costs on AI are comparable with the whole non-defense funding. American world-leading IT companies support state departments and agencies in organizing AI technologies development and implementation. The USA's highest military and political leadership supports such efforts. Congress provides significant requested funding. However leading specialists criticize the state's approach to creating and implementing AI. Firstly, they consider authorized assignments as not sufficient. Secondly, even this funding is used ineffectively. Therefore Congress created National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) in 2018 for identifying problems in the AI area and developing solutions. This article looks at the stakeholders and participants of the state AI efforts, the budget funding authorization, the major existing problems and the NSCAI conclusions regarding the necessary AI funding in FYs 2021-2032.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114928951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Stages of Armed Forces Formation: Unlearned Lessons of Afghanistan","authors":"I. Zimin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-97-107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-97-107","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, the author looks into the stages of formation of the military organization and the transformation of the armed forces’ role in the political system of the Afghan state from the moment the country gained independence to the present day. The goals that were assigned to the army by the leaders of Afghanistan at different periods of time, the degree of their implementation, as well as the methods of reformation and ideological motivation of the armed forces are analyzed. The interdependence between the formation of the armed forces of Afghanistan and the strengthening or weakening of statehood is examined. The issues of forming the national armed forces are studied in the context of three main stages in the development of the modern Afghan state, each of those determined the special role of the army as a political institution and at the same time reflected the impact of the military organization of the army on political development. The first period refers to the formation of the modern Afghan state starting from 1919, when the country gained independence as a result of the Third Anglo-Afghan War, and ending with the events of 1978 (the ‘Saur Revolution’). The second one represents the time spent in Afghanistan by a limited contingent of Soviet troops from 1979 to 1989, as well as the time the Marxist government was in power and introduced their reforms. The third period is marked by the destruction of previously established institutions under the influence of deepening civil conflict and the consequences of the US military operation ‘Enduring Freedom’ (2001–2014) and NATO-led ‘Resolute Support’ mission (2014–2021).","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133459994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public Governance in Digital Transformation: from Electronic Document Exchange to Digital Ecosystems","authors":"I. Udovenko","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-32-42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-32-42","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the changes arising from the introduction of information and communication technologies in public administration using an institutional approach. Practical examples are used to consider transformations in the way government institutions interact with citizens and organizations, as well as new emerging opportunities in the provision of public and socially important services. The author analyses both the retrospective formation of centralised government information systems in countries that have reached digital maturity, the formation of electronic, digital and smart governments, and the emerging trends of the next round of digital transformation - the development of interstate digital ecosystems and regional digital environments of megacities and urban agglomerations. In particular, the article examines the steps taken by the US government in the early 21st century to establish electronic interaction between government agencies and to create a system for delivering public services that excludes personal contact by citizens and companies. It then identifies technologies that have subsequently enabled other countries to make the transition to fully digital governmental information. A significant innovation that, in the author's opinion, determined the further vector of transformation of administrative processes was the integration of payment and government information systems. Such a technological solution, implemented through a closer partnership between government and corporate entities, combined with the spread of individual mobile digital devices – smartphones and tablets – has become the basis for the development of unified digital platforms designed to optimize both the provision and receipt of virtually all socially important services. The article also examines the role of government information systems in the development of the data economy and highlights emerging models of government regulation in this area. The following trends of digitalization in the public sector are analysed as relevant: regulators of digital ecosystems acquiring the ability to provide digital services to extraterritorial communities, scaling digital infrastructure in territories with high population concentration when implementing economic development projects and introducing digital technologies in the social sphere.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129169962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"NEW “SYMPTOMS” OF THE US SYSTEMIC CRISIS THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE COVID-19 RESPOND","authors":"A. Borisova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2020-2-30-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2020-2-30-41","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129662479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}