LONG-TERM FORECASTING IN THE US: INSTITUTIONAL ASPECT

Abstract

The article is devoted to the institutional aspects of American forecasting. Most attention is paid to non-governmental scientific organizations. The research is based on materials of leading US organizations and expert interviews. The first part of the study is devoted to the development of predictive researches in the US in 1950–1980. This period was expressed by works of RAND Corporation, World Future Society, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Huston University and others. An increase in the complexity and universality of forecasts has led to further inclusion of representatives from various target audiences. Forecasts have included issues of the social, legal and ethical agenda. More attention was paid to problems of education, employment, and redistribution of resources. The second part of this study is devoted to modern organizations and new methodologies. A current generation of forecasters is represented by the National Intelligence Council and its research “Global Trends". The Millennium Project is another important organization. It provides an integrated and constantly updated forecast “State of the Future”. Attention is also paid to the Association of professional futurists. At the end of the study, three main conclusions are made. Firstly, an accurate prediction of future trends is not the main forecasting goal. The main task is to create a reasoned view of the future world. Secondly, there is no clear separation between forecasting and foresight which is a further development of predictive research. It uses an interdisciplinary approach and includes current economic, technological and social trends. Thirdly, the attraction of a wide range of experts (including foreign ones) increases the objectivity. This also affects the institutional structure of US organizations. The internationalization of forecasting has a scientific effect and contributes to the credibility of American institutions and the US “soft power”. About author:  Sergey V. KISLITSYN, Cand. Sci. (Polit.), Research Associate, Sector of US Foreign and Domestic Policy, Center for North American Studies.