Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献_第6页

The Political Struggle with the Issue of a ‘Hard’ Brexit During Theresa May Premiership 特蕾莎·梅担任首相期间围绕“硬”脱欧问题的政治斗争

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2023-1-58-75

I. Palachanin

引用次数: 0

The Role of ASEAN in Political Conflict Resolution in Myanmar 东盟在解决缅甸政治冲突中的作用

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2021-2-28-37

N. Rogozhina

{"title":"The Role of ASEAN in Political Conflict Resolution in Myanmar","authors":"N. Rogozhina","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-2-28-37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-2-28-37","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the ASEAN policy to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar, the main means and directions of its implementation. The confrontation in society as a result of the military coup on February 1, 2021 is accompanied by violence and threatens to escalate into a civil war. The threat of losing its central role in the regional security system and the regionalization of the conflict prompts ASEAN to look for ways out of it in accordance with the adopted action plan. However, its implementation is difficult both due to the fact that ASEAN remains hostage to the fundamental principle of its activities, non-interference in the internal affairs of its members, and the unwillingness of all parties to the conflict in Myanmar to seek ways of reconciliation. ASEAN's interaction with the military leadership accused of mass repression is asymmetric, with the success or failure of the ASEAN peacekeeping mission almost entirely dependent on the political will of the military. Nevertheless, ASEAN remains today the only force capable of influencing the development of the political situation in Myanmar. The best option for the international community to participate in resolving the conflict in Myanmar is to assist ASEAN in the implementation of peacekeeping activities. The most realistic ASEAN initiative today is to provide humanitarian assistance to Myanmar, which is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. Considering the negative trends in socio-economic development, Myanmar for many years to come will need humanitarian support, in the provision of which ASEAN has advantages over Western states and associations. Giving preference to the methods of soft diplomacy, dictated by the need to observe the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Myanmar, ASEAN as an institution demonstrates its functional weakness, which the military who seized power use to delay the implementation of the measures proposed by the bloc to resolve the conflict. ASEAN continues to act with great caution, and this may cause it losing the influence on the development of the situation when China, which is not interested in prolonging the conflict, seizes the initiative.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127781987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

COVID-19 Crisis as a Catalyst for the USA-China Decoupling 新冠疫情是中美脱钩的催化剂

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2021-2-13-27

A. Zaitsev, A. Pyatachkova

{"title":"COVID-19 Crisis as a Catalyst for the USA-China Decoupling","authors":"A. Zaitsev, A. Pyatachkova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-2-13-27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-2-13-27","url":null,"abstract":"The Sino-American rivalry has increased during the pandemic. The ongoing decoupling is rather sectoral than comprehensive and is reflected in trade and sanctions war, competition, restrictions in such spheres as technologies, investment, science, and education. The contradictions are caused not by the pandemic context, but stem from the fundamental structural problems in Sino-American cooperation associated with a change of the economic development model in China and the absence of compensatory mechanisms in the United States, as well as the transition of countries to the phase of strategic competition. From a formal point of view, it looks like the confrontation was mainly initiated by the United States, but it was China that first revealed the intention to greater independence. It is associated with the Chinese economy's qualitative changes – restructuring of the growth model from export towards domestic demand and Chinese leadership claims in a number of high-tech industries. All this made cooperation with China disadvantageous and not safe (in the sense of economic security) for the United States. The 2020 pandemic accelerates natural processes, and the arrival of the new Biden administration will not change their overall direction: the trend towards breaking ties in a number of areas will continue, despite the presence of interested parties, especially in the business sector. But the high economic interdependence still determines the gradual and long-term nature of the decoupling process. Decoupling also has some important consequences for other countries, which, in the context of a strategic confrontation between the two powers, may be faced with the need to choose one of the partners. In the future, some countries may also benefit due to the restructuring of the Chinese-American value chains.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130129598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ludwig Klages, Deep Ecology and the Concept of Friluftsliv in Nordic Countries 路德维希·克拉奇:《北欧国家的深层生态学与Friluftsliv概念》

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2023-1-27-44

N. Belukhin

{"title":"Ludwig Klages, Deep Ecology and the Concept of Friluftsliv in Nordic Countries","authors":"N. Belukhin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2023-1-27-44","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2023-1-27-44","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides a brief overview of the views of philosophers Ludvig Klages, Arne Næss and Villy Sørensen, whose works revolved around the relationship between man and the environment. The article then proceeds to compare their philosophical ideas with the popular concept of friluftsliv which closely intertwines with the lifestyle as well as regional and national identity of Nordic countries. It is revealed that the common ground of both the philosophical constructions of deep ecology and the practice of friluftsliv is the close emotional connection between humanity and nature as its original environment. The analysis of development strategies of friluftsliv in Denmark, Norway and Sweden highlights the potential of friluftsliv phenomenon to be a conduit for fostering wide public solidarity on the ‘green’ agenda and promoting ecological consciousness and eco-citizenship in Nordic countries, which also corresponds to the idea of aesthetic, beautiful actions as formulated by Arne Næss. The conclusion is made that the systematically implemented practice of friluftsliv in Northern Europe can serve as an example of overcoming the conflict between radical environmental alarmism and skepticism and of making environmental care a part of everyday life and national consciousness. The article also notes the threat of right-wing radicalism and right-wing extremism employing the environmental rhetoric in order to increase their popularity among the younger generation. Despite local environmental initiatives conducted under the auspices of such organizations, their ‘green’ rhetoric primarily serves to reinforce their more traditional agenda of restricting immigration and eliminating ‘foreign and hostile’ elements from Nordic society. The conclusion emphasizes the broad potential for the study of national ecological cultures and identities, which could complement and broaden the existing research on the ‘green’ parties and mass environmental movements.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"87 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127994282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

MILITARY-ECONOMIC SHIFTS AT THE TURN OF THE THIRD DECADE OF THE XXI CENTURY 二十一世纪第三个十年之交的军事经济转变

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-42-54

L. Pankova, O. Gusarova

引用次数: 0

The Main Trends in the Development of the UK Party-Political System after the 2019 General Parliamentary Elections 2019年英国议会大选后英国政党政治制度发展的主要趋势

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2023-1-76-86

I. Kovalev, T. Nazaruk

{"title":"The Main Trends in the Development of the UK Party-Political System after the 2019 General Parliamentary Elections","authors":"I. Kovalev, T. Nazaruk","doi":"10.20542/afij-2023-1-76-86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2023-1-76-86","url":null,"abstract":"The 2019 general parliamentary elections in the UK took place in the context of a prolonged socio-political crisis: it was the second early election in three years, which is extremely atypical for Britain. Elections were held after resignation of T. May, who after several attempts failed to get support for her draft Agreement on Britain's withdrawal from the EU in the House of Commons and decided to leave the post of prime minister and leader of the Conservatives. Shortly after the victory of the Tories, the exit of the country from the EU, which was the main stumbling block in political discourse for three whole years, was finally completed by the new Tory leader B. Johnson. Then it seemed that the main contradictions had been overcome, but the coronavirus pandemic became another test of strength for the country's political system, and B. Johnson himself fell into a series of scandals that led not only to a declining trust in the prime minister, but to his resignation. Against the backdrop of instability in the political life of the country, the role of regional parties has also changed, which, as forces of opposition pressure, have a significant impact on the domestic political agenda. This article examines features of the development of the UK party-political system on the eve and after the 2019 general parliamentary elections. First of all, attention is paid to analyzing the election results, to the study of B. Johnson's policy in a period of crisis, the assessment of the approaches of the Labour Party under K. Starmer, and the analysis of the transforming role of regional parties in the country. The article also highlights the factors in the development of the modern party-political system in Great Britain. The main conclusion of the article is that despite the deep and prolonged political crisis in the country, the system remains stable and, moreover, the Conservative Party manages to maintain its dominance in these circumstances.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130788017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

THE LIMITS OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS OF THE VISEGRAD GROUP 维谢格拉德集团经济关系的界限

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-87-97

A. Chetverikova

引用次数: 0

VALUE ADDED TRADE IN NON-PRIMARY INDUSTRIES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION: IS THERE A GROWTH POTENTIAL? 俄罗斯与欧盟非初级产业增加值贸易:有增长潜力吗?

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-98-109

A. Nevskaya

引用次数: 1

Political and Legal Features of the Fight Against Human Trafficking in the Conditions of Political Polarization and Hybridization 政治极化、政治杂交条件下打击人口拐卖的政治与法律特征

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-1-100-117

E. Oskina

{"title":"Political and Legal Features of the Fight Against Human Trafficking in the Conditions of Political Polarization and Hybridization","authors":"E. Oskina","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-1-100-117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-1-100-117","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of human trafficking is becoming more global every year, today almost all countries of the world are affected in the chain of the country of origin - the country of destination. Third world countries due to a complex of push factors (economic difficulties, social tensions, poverty, internal wars and conflicts, etc.) are increasingly becoming countries of origin for future victims of human trafficking. Migration flows create a gray area that is difficult to regulate by legislation. It is this zone that becomes the target of criminal networks for human trafficking. Developing countries, due to a poorly organized supervisory apparatus, do not track the movement of their citizens as migrants. Developed countries, which often become the end point for further exploitation, do not make all the necessary efforts to identify victims and repatriate them. The whole complex of problems contributes to the prosperity of the human trafficking business. However, in the field of political and legal understanding of this problem, there are a large number of shortcomings. The most significant of them are the weakness of the Palermo Protocol (the most universal and comprehensive regulatory act in the fight against human trafficking), simplified identification of types of human trafficking and artificial politicization of the problem. The purpose of this article is to consider the main shortcomings of the political and legal features of the fight against human trafficking in the context of the struggle of countries for their national interests and changing means and methods of confrontation between states.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127219359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Transformation of the Euroscepticism of the National Rally Party (2017–2022) 民族团结党的欧洲怀疑主义转型(2017-2022)

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-3-91-103

L. Krasikova

{"title":"The Transformation of the Euroscepticism of the National Rally Party (2017–2022)","authors":"L. Krasikova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-91-103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-91-103","url":null,"abstract":"In the spring of 2022, French presidential elections were held in which Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Eurosceptic National Rally party, came in second place. The electoral dynamics of this party are positive, which increases the likelihood of the transformation of the French political mainstream. The populist National Rally (NR) is gradually becoming a systemic party. This has an impact on the public environment, which makes studying the mainstream parties relevant. The situation of the NR is affected by the transformation of traditional party Euroscepticism. In order to analyze and give reasons for these changes, the article carries out a content analysis of the 2017 and 2022 election programs of M. Le Pen, the leader of NR. The application of simple and substantive content analysis methods made it possible to trace the evolution of her program agenda during the 2017–2022 election cycle. The author concludes that the transformation of Euroscepticism from a ‘hard’ to a ‘soft’ form was aimed at attracting a broader constituency. The change in the NR's agenda-setting means abandoning the previous demands to withdraw France from the EU, the Eurozone and the Schengen zone. Along with this, M. Le Pen proposes to transform the European Union into the European Alliance of Nations, in which the intergovernmental principle will prevail, which is opposed to the excessive supranationality in the EU. The question of France's role in the world was also a prominent feature in the 2017 and 2022 programs of the NR leader. However, no evolution of the program in this direction has been detected. At the same time, there was a transformation of M. Le Pen’s attitude towards Russia. Previously, the NR could be called a promoter of Russian interests in France and the EU (taking into account the activities of deputies from this party in the European Parliament). However, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine forced the NR to change its opinion about the Kremlin's foreign policy.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115839954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0