Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal最新文献_第7页

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2021-4-58-71

M. Beletskaya

{"title":"COVID-19 Related Development Aid Provided by the US and the Russian Federation","authors":"M. Beletskaya","doi":"10.20542/afij-2021-4-58-71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2021-4-58-71","url":null,"abstract":"The outbreak of the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 affected all spheres of human life and reiterated the important role of international development cooperation. This paper provides a qualitative study of the international assistance by the United States and Russian Federation as active donors and suppliers of vaccines against the COVID-19 virus. The research is based on publications in scientific journals, as well as up-to-date information on the official websites of U.S. and Russian government agencies related to the provision of such assistance. In addition, publications of aggregated data on the fight against the spread of coronavirus are used. The results indicate that in spite of a large gap between the U.S. and Russia’s development aid volumes, the political ambitions and actual objectives of development aid policies are similar. The initial response to the pandemic was similar between both countries. However, as the situation developed, the attitude towards vaccination and subsequently providing vaccine doses as aid proved to be different between the U.S. and Russia. While the U.S. concentrated heavily on the vaccination of its own population, Russia made an emphasis on using its vaccine as a “soft power” on the international market.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115921389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

WESTPHALIAN MYTH: HISTORY AND CRITICISM 威斯特伐利亚神话:历史与批判

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2019-3-37-50

A. Kupriyanov

引用次数: 1

PESCO and NATO Defence Projects: Coordination or Competition? PESCO和北约防务项目:协调还是竞争?

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-4-35-45

A. Aleshin

{"title":"PESCO and NATO Defence Projects: Coordination or Competition?","authors":"A. Aleshin","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-35-45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-35-45","url":null,"abstract":"The EU’s PESCO projects and NATO’s High Visibility Projects are aimed at strengthening the defence capabilities of the member states of these two structures, creating new military technologies, jointly purchasing equipment and weapons, optimizing countries' defence spending and coordinating the transformation of their armed forces structures in accordance with collective interests. At the same time, the projects of the EU and NATO have different tasks that align with the foreign policy goals of these different in nature structures. Due to the participation of various states in each of them, primarily the United States in NATO, a number of contradictions between them remain. However, most of them are offset by the EU–NATO cooperation. The latter has significantly intensified since 2016. Two bilateral declarations were signed and two packages of measures for their implementation were adopted. The parties have strengthened political cooperation, interaction during operations, coordination of defence planning, they jointly develop projects for the formation of military infrastructure, develop deepen military-technical cooperation in areas of common interest. The article analyzes the PESCO and High Visibility Projects projects, compares them and identifies the links and differences between them. It is substantiated that, despite the various tasks, in the conditions of the modern transformation of the world order and the evolution of threats to their member states, the EU and NATO are expanding coordination in defence planning and developing a division of responsibilities between the two. The PESCO and High Visibility Projects are being implemented in full synchronization with each other, with the participation of a number of EU member states, but not-NATO members, in NATO projects and vice versa. Rather, the projects complement each other, although the scope of PESCO is much broader due to the peculiarities of the nature of the European Union as a regional integration association. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is a spatial approach. It is substantiated that the EU and NATO, both being already transnational political spaces, form a superstructure space of EU-NATO cooperation, in which the actors of the first level – these two structures themselves – and the second level – the states – interact more intensively than with external actors, participate in the struggle for power, redistribution of resources, form the identity of this transnational space. It is concluded that in the future, coordination between the PESCO and High Visibility Projects, as well as between the EU and NATO in general, will expand.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129624174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Professional Labour Mobility in Russia 俄罗斯的专业劳动力流动

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-4-74-83

M. Khokhlova

{"title":"Professional Labour Mobility in Russia","authors":"M. Khokhlova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-4-74-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-4-74-83","url":null,"abstract":"Professional adaptation of the workforce to the demands of the labour market in 2013–2020 in Russia reflected the impact that the technological revolution had on this process. The 2018–2020 Coronavirus pandemic years, when there was a reduction in the workforce among office workers, due to forced computerization of their job functions in the process of transferring to remote work, stand out in particular. The profession is a social institution. The professional mobility of the workforce, which is driven by social or technological revolutions, structures society. Meanwhile, the nature and speed of the effects on society are different in both cases. The precipitous exit from professions in the early 1990s, accompanied by vertical mobility, is characteristic of a social revolution, whereas under the influence of the technological revolution between 2012 and 2020, occupational mobility does not exhibit such striking dynamics and is predominantly horizontal in nature. It is important to note that the article considers those in the labour force – the employed and the unemployed – as parts of a single whole, whose search for employment in the labour market is motivated by and subject to the same patterns. The unemployed, as a more mobile part of the labour force, are the first to ‘guess’ the vector of change in the structure of employment. The phenomenon of the same pattern of inter-professional mobility of the employed and the unemployed was noticed when observing the labor market in the 1990s. It was indicative of a structural shift. It was the occupational groups in which this phenomenon was observed that were more frequently demonstrating vertical mobility. Similarly, a decrease in employment and unemployment in agriculture, along with an increase in both among the higher-skilled labour force, indicated the emergence of a post-industrial society in Russia in 2012–2020. These changes in professional employment are social in nature, as they are accompanied by changes in living standards and lifestyles; not only the material situation but mindset is changing, leading to new demands for quality of life. This conclusion can be drawn from Rosstat data on 35 occupations, and on this basis calculations and diagrams were made, with absolute figures provided.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128443362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

THE ECONOMIC GROWTH PROSPECTS OF EMERGING ECONOMIES 新兴经济体的经济增长前景

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2019-1-18-32

J. Zhong-zheng

引用次数: 1

UNDERSTANDING THE “GREAT TRANSFORMATIONS OF A CENTURY” 理解“百年大变革”

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-20-29

Yuyan Zhang

引用次数: 0

“THE CRISIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE DREAMS OF AMERICAN HEGEMONY” “这场危机将终结美国霸权的梦想”

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-14-19

V. Trubnikov

引用次数: 0

Balkan Countries’ Approach to Cooperation with Russia 巴尔干国家如何与俄罗斯合作

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-3-69-75

P. Kandel

{"title":"Balkan Countries’ Approach to Cooperation with Russia","authors":"P. Kandel","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-69-75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-69-75","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines three parameters of the stated subject: policies of the state governments of South-Eastern Europe in the light of the new developments in Ukraine, widespread attitudes and the configuration of political forces in these countries which may provide a chance to pro-Russian circles. The analysis is based on both national and international opinion polls and the results of the latest elections. As is shown, the traditionally strong Russophile sentiments in many countries of the region have reverberated again and affected the perception of the conflict. It's only natural for Russia’s public opinion, focused on events in and around Ukraine, to look at everything through the lens of Russia opposing the collective West. However, in a region, where the European Union for every single state is a pole of centripetal tendencies and where a NATO membership is a much needed permit to that pole, people view things in a different way. Thus, projecting Russian worldview on local reality is methodologically flawed and it would lead to incorrect assessments and conclusions. Pro-Russian sympathies made themselves known in areas where there are such. However, the potential of the pro-Russian forces is insufficient for a fundamental change in policies although the ruling circles cannot completely ignore it. The article concludes that the status and prospects of Russian cooperation with the countries of the region will remain unfavorable until the end of military operation in Ukraine, although the EU and the USA are unlikely to succeed in achieving complete abandonment of Russian energy resources in a short time.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132271099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

‘Global Warming’ and the Energy Transition (Foreign Trade Aspect) “全球变暖”与能源转型(对外贸易方面)

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2022-2-13-22

I. Korolev

{"title":"‘Global Warming’ and the Energy Transition (Foreign Trade Aspect)","authors":"I. Korolev","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-2-13-22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-2-13-22","url":null,"abstract":"Last 10‒15 years ‘global warming’ is presented as the main threat to humanity, allegedly more dangerous than a possible nuclear catastrophe. To counteract ‘climate change’ an energy transit mechanism has been launched on national and international levels. Among its aims ‒ phasing out traditional energy resources, reducing output of other products with an intensive carbon emission, forced despite the costs, transition to renewable energy resources. To achieve these aims a lot of measures are examined including EU possible applying the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism which may be interpreted as a trade war instrument. Many such measures contradict the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) the aims of which were formulated as to avoid dangers for production and sustainable growth especially for developing countries. One-sided energy transition may destabilize the situation at world markets and destroy international trade system based on WTO principles. Possible counteractions of Russia should be determined first of all by the aims of supporting its competiveness. This implies in particular the use of traditional energy resources (oil, gas, coal) in Russian economy as long as possible. Critical attitude to the prevailing international climate agenda does not mean that the author underestimates the importance of environmental issues for Russia. The close-down of many factories after the collapse of the Soviet Union diminished pollution in some places. But new dangers have appeared ‒ privately owned vehicles, urban solid waste, abandoned farmersʹ lands, ill-conceived and even criminal lodging construction. Speaking of numerous environmental and biodiversity metrics, our country fails to keep pace with advanced standarts. Even under Western sanctions Russia should increase financial outlets in order to improve environmental situation in the country. More effective ecological laws are badly needed not only in industry and transport but also in regional and municipal development.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128539988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

IMPACT OF LOCAL PROTRACTED CONFLICTS IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE ON THE CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL REGIME IN EUROPE 后苏联地区局部持久冲突对欧洲常规军备控制制度的影响

Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/afij-2020-2-76-86

S. Rastol'tsev

引用次数: 1