Balkan Countries’ Approach to Cooperation with Russia

P. Kandel
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Abstract

The article examines three parameters of the stated subject: policies of the state governments of South-Eastern Europe in the light of the new developments in Ukraine, widespread attitudes and the configuration of political forces in these countries which may provide a chance to pro-Russian circles. The analysis is based on both national and international opinion polls and the results of the latest elections. As is shown, the traditionally strong Russophile sentiments in many countries of the region have reverberated again and affected the perception of the conflict. It's only natural for Russia’s public opinion, focused on events in and around Ukraine, to look at everything through the lens of Russia opposing the collective West. However, in a region, where the European Union for every single state is a pole of centripetal tendencies and where a NATO membership is a much needed permit to that pole, people view things in a different way. Thus, projecting Russian worldview on local reality is methodologically flawed and it would lead to incorrect assessments and conclusions. Pro-Russian sympathies made themselves known in areas where there are such. However, the potential of the pro-Russian forces is insufficient for a fundamental change in policies although the ruling circles cannot completely ignore it. The article concludes that the status and prospects of Russian cooperation with the countries of the region will remain unfavorable until the end of military operation in Ukraine, although the EU and the USA are unlikely to succeed in achieving complete abandonment of Russian energy resources in a short time.
巴尔干国家如何与俄罗斯合作
本文考察了所述主题的三个参数:根据乌克兰的新发展,东南欧各州政府的政策,这些国家普遍的态度和政治力量的配置可能为亲俄圈提供机会。这一分析是基于国内和国际民意调查以及最近选举的结果。如所示,该区域许多国家传统上强烈的亲俄情绪再次出现并影响到对冲突的看法。关注乌克兰及其周边事件的俄罗斯公众舆论,很自然地会从俄罗斯反对西方集体的角度来看待一切。然而,在这个地区,欧盟对每个国家来说都是向心力倾向的一极,而北约成员资格是实现这一极的必要许可,人们以不同的方式看待问题。因此,将俄罗斯的世界观投射到当地的现实是有方法缺陷的,它会导致不正确的评估和结论。亲俄派的同情者在有这种同情者的地区公开露面。然而,亲俄势力的潜力不足以从根本上改变政策,尽管统治集团不能完全忽视它。文章的结论是,尽管欧盟和美国不太可能在短时间内成功地完全放弃俄罗斯的能源资源,但在乌克兰军事行动结束之前,俄罗斯与该地区国家合作的地位和前景仍将不利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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