{"title":"The Transformation of the Euroscepticism of the National Rally Party (2017–2022)","authors":"L. Krasikova","doi":"10.20542/afij-2022-3-91-103","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the spring of 2022, French presidential elections were held in which Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Eurosceptic National Rally party, came in second place. The electoral dynamics of this party are positive, which increases the likelihood of the transformation of the French political mainstream. The populist National Rally (NR) is gradually becoming a systemic party. This has an impact on the public environment, which makes studying the mainstream parties relevant. The situation of the NR is affected by the transformation of traditional party Euroscepticism. In order to analyze and give reasons for these changes, the article carries out a content analysis of the 2017 and 2022 election programs of M. Le Pen, the leader of NR. The application of simple and substantive content analysis methods made it possible to trace the evolution of her program agenda during the 2017–2022 election cycle. The author concludes that the transformation of Euroscepticism from a ‘hard’ to a ‘soft’ form was aimed at attracting a broader constituency. The change in the NR's agenda-setting means abandoning the previous demands to withdraw France from the EU, the Eurozone and the Schengen zone. Along with this, M. Le Pen proposes to transform the European Union into the European Alliance of Nations, in which the intergovernmental principle will prevail, which is opposed to the excessive supranationality in the EU. The question of France's role in the world was also a prominent feature in the 2017 and 2022 programs of the NR leader. However, no evolution of the program in this direction has been detected. At the same time, there was a transformation of M. Le Pen’s attitude towards Russia. Previously, the NR could be called a promoter of Russian interests in France and the EU (taking into account the activities of deputies from this party in the European Parliament). However, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine forced the NR to change its opinion about the Kremlin's foreign policy.","PeriodicalId":405984,"journal":{"name":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Analysis and Forecasting. IMEMO Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.20542/afij-2022-3-91-103","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In the spring of 2022, French presidential elections were held in which Marine Le Pen, the leader of the Eurosceptic National Rally party, came in second place. The electoral dynamics of this party are positive, which increases the likelihood of the transformation of the French political mainstream. The populist National Rally (NR) is gradually becoming a systemic party. This has an impact on the public environment, which makes studying the mainstream parties relevant. The situation of the NR is affected by the transformation of traditional party Euroscepticism. In order to analyze and give reasons for these changes, the article carries out a content analysis of the 2017 and 2022 election programs of M. Le Pen, the leader of NR. The application of simple and substantive content analysis methods made it possible to trace the evolution of her program agenda during the 2017–2022 election cycle. The author concludes that the transformation of Euroscepticism from a ‘hard’ to a ‘soft’ form was aimed at attracting a broader constituency. The change in the NR's agenda-setting means abandoning the previous demands to withdraw France from the EU, the Eurozone and the Schengen zone. Along with this, M. Le Pen proposes to transform the European Union into the European Alliance of Nations, in which the intergovernmental principle will prevail, which is opposed to the excessive supranationality in the EU. The question of France's role in the world was also a prominent feature in the 2017 and 2022 programs of the NR leader. However, no evolution of the program in this direction has been detected. At the same time, there was a transformation of M. Le Pen’s attitude towards Russia. Previously, the NR could be called a promoter of Russian interests in France and the EU (taking into account the activities of deputies from this party in the European Parliament). However, Russia's special military operation in Ukraine forced the NR to change its opinion about the Kremlin's foreign policy.
2022年春天,法国举行了总统选举,持欧洲怀疑论的国民集会党(National Rally)领导人马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)名列第二。该党的选举动态是积极的,这增加了法国政治主流转型的可能性。民粹主义的国民大会(NR)正在逐渐成为一个体制政党。这对公共环境产生了影响,这使得研究主流政党变得有意义。传统政党欧洲怀疑主义的转变影响了NR的状况。为了分析和给出这些变化的原因,本文对新右翼党的领导人勒庞2017年和2022年的选举纲领进行了内容分析。运用简单而实质性的内容分析方法,可以追溯她在2017 - 2022年选举周期中纲领议程的演变。作者的结论是,欧洲怀疑主义从“硬”到“软”形式的转变旨在吸引更广泛的选民。新民族联盟议程设置的改变意味着放弃此前要求法国退出欧盟、欧元区和申根区的要求。与此同时,勒庞提议将欧盟转变为欧洲国家联盟(European Alliance of Nations),以政府间原则为主导,反对欧盟内部过度的超国家主义。法国在世界上的角色问题也是这位新总统2017年和2022年计划的一个突出特点。然而,在这个方向上没有发现程序的发展。与此同时,勒庞对俄罗斯的态度也发生了转变。以前,NR可以被称为俄罗斯在法国和欧盟利益的推动者(考虑到该政党在欧洲议会中的代表活动)。然而,俄罗斯在乌克兰的特殊军事行动迫使NR改变了对克里姆林宫外交政策的看法。