The Role of ASEAN in Political Conflict Resolution in Myanmar

N. Rogozhina
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The article analyzes the ASEAN policy to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar, the main means and directions of its implementation. The confrontation in society as a result of the military coup on February 1, 2021 is accompanied by violence and threatens to escalate into a civil war. The threat of losing its central role in the regional security system and the regionalization of the conflict prompts ASEAN to look for ways out of it in accordance with the adopted action plan. However, its implementation is difficult both due to the fact that ASEAN remains hostage to the fundamental principle of its activities, non-interference in the internal affairs of its members, and the unwillingness of all parties to the conflict in Myanmar to seek ways of reconciliation. ASEAN's interaction with the military leadership accused of mass repression is asymmetric, with the success or failure of the ASEAN peacekeeping mission almost entirely dependent on the political will of the military. Nevertheless, ASEAN remains today the only force capable of influencing the development of the political situation in Myanmar. The best option for the international community to participate in resolving the conflict in Myanmar is to assist ASEAN in the implementation of peacekeeping activities. The most realistic ASEAN initiative today is to provide humanitarian assistance to Myanmar, which is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. Considering the negative trends in socio-economic development, Myanmar for many years to come will need humanitarian support, in the provision of which ASEAN has advantages over Western states and associations. Giving preference to the methods of soft diplomacy, dictated by the need to observe the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of Myanmar, ASEAN as an institution demonstrates its functional weakness, which the military who seized power use to delay the implementation of the measures proposed by the bloc to resolve the conflict. ASEAN continues to act with great caution, and this may cause it losing the influence on the development of the situation when China, which is not interested in prolonging the conflict, seizes the initiative.
东盟在解决缅甸政治冲突中的作用
文章分析了东盟解决缅甸政治危机的政策,其实施的主要手段和方向。2021年2月1日军事政变导致的社会对抗伴随着暴力,并有可能升级为内战。失去其在区域安全体系中的中心作用的威胁和冲突的区域化促使东盟按照已通过的行动计划寻找解决办法。然而,由于东盟仍然受制于其活动的基本原则,即不干涉其成员国的内政,以及缅甸冲突各方不愿寻求和解的方式,其实施是困难的。东盟与被控大规模镇压的缅甸军方领导层的互动是不对称的,东盟维和行动的成败几乎完全取决于缅甸军方的政治意愿。然而,东盟今天仍然是能够影响缅甸政治局势发展的唯一力量。国际社会参与解决缅甸冲突的最佳选择是协助东盟实施维和行动。今天最现实的东盟倡议是向处于人道主义灾难边缘的缅甸提供人道主义援助。考虑到社会经济发展的消极趋势,缅甸在今后许多年将需要人道主义援助,而东盟在提供人道主义援助方面比西方国家和协会更有优势。出于遵守不干涉缅甸内政原则的需要,东盟优先选择软外交的方法,作为一个机构,它显示了其功能上的弱点,夺取政权的军方利用这一弱点来推迟实施该集团提出的解决冲突的措施。东盟继续谨慎行事,这可能会导致东盟失去对局势发展的影响力,因为中国无意延长冲突,而掌握了主动权。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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