Journal of Space Safety Engineering最新文献

{"title":"A critical analysis of reentry debris uncertainty and international coordination efforts","authors":"Kayla Bigham,&nbsp;Rachita Puri","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recent rapid advancement of commercial space operations has highlighted high levels of reentry debris modeling uncertainty and the lack of efficient international coordination for exchanging information to ensure these operations are conducted safely. One such source of modeling uncertainty occurs in aerothermal demise predictions of debris fragments while performing flight safety analysis for controlled reentries. Using current models, predicting aerothermal demise for any type of reentry with a high degree of certainty is a time and resource intensive process due to a lack of data, the introduction of new materials, and the complexity of current models. Another layer of uncertainty is introduced for cases of uncontrolled or random reentry of an object. For random reentry cases, there is limited capability to predict when and where debris will impact Earth’s surface.</div><div>Advancements in understanding of the risks from space operations, including controlled reentries, debris from launch, and random reentries, will allow countries to have higher certainty when a particular area may be exposed to risk. Existing international frameworks and processes are not agile enough to enable efficient data sharing, communication, or real time operational coordination for mitigating hazards from these space operations. Given the differences in jurisdiction, issues of sovereignty, lack of standardized procedures, and the ambiguity in implementing international space laws and treaties, the high degree of uncertainty in the risk predictions poses additional challenges with respect to the implementation of safety measures such as warnings and closures.</div><div>This paper investigates how improvements will be needed to safeguard public safety for reentry operations across the globe, by highlighting shortcomings in modeling ability and opportunities for increased operational coordination and communication with international partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 475-480"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study of ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms on 27–29 May 2017 and 18–20 February 2014 along different longitudes","authors":"Asebe Oljira Geleta ,&nbsp;Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><span><span>The study examines the change in the vertical total electron content (VTEC) and the presence of </span>ionospheric irregularities during the geomagnetic storms that occurred on February 18–20, 2014 and May 27–29, 2017. TEC data from satellite receivers located in the equatorial and low latitude areas of the Americas, Pacific, Africa, and India were analyzed. In addition, magnetometer data, the Direct Penetration of Equatorial Electric Field Model (PPEEFM), </span>interplanetary magnetic fields, and electric field data were also used. The Rate of TEC change (ROTI) was used to investigate changes in TEC caused by disturbances. The results indicate that there was a significant increase in TEC </span><span><math><mrow><mo>≈</mo><mn>150</mn></mrow></math></span><span> % over the Indian sector on 29 May 2017. Similarly, during the recovery phase of the storm there was an increase in TEC (about 240 %) over the Pacific sector which may attributed disturbances in the magnetosphere and ionosphere currents. During the geomagnetic storm on February 19–20, 2014, there were noticeable positive storm effects over the American sector, with TEC deviations of up to 220 %. After the main storm phase, the Pacific sector experienced TEC deviations of around 300 %. The study also found that ionospheric irregularities were suppressed in the American, African, and Indian sectors during the storm period in May 2017, while the geomagnetic storm of February 18–20, 2014 led to irregularities in these sectors, with complete suppression over the Pacific sector. This effect on irregularities is likely attributed to changes in IMF Bz components polarity and the associated amount of energy supplied to magnetosphere-ionosphere system during the geomagnetic storms in May 2017 and February 2014.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 447-463"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comparison of spacecraft collision detection strategies using a virtual conjunction dataset","authors":"Giacomo Curzi ,&nbsp;Dario Modenini","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conjunction assessment in the field of collision avoidance<span><span> is customarily based on a single or a fusion of collision risk indexes. There are several risk indexes proposed in the literature, yet the authors could not find a comparative study of such indexes that was based on the miss detection performance. Miss detection is in fact one possible target parameter when choosing an actionable threshold and is a good candidate for high-traffic conditions. This work applies and compares four different detection strategies i) Probability of Collision, ii) </span>Mahalanobis distance<span><span>, iii) Wald Sequential Probability Ratio test<span> and iv) Gaussian<span> Belief Function on a common dataset of virtual conjunctions, measuring the performance on the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic (ROC) plane (detection rate – vs – false alarm rate). The virtual conjunction dataset offers an unprecedented realism in both the geometry and the true </span></span></span>collision rate of candidate conjunctions given some orbital scenario. Using this dataset, we estimate the realistic performance of the detectors. Results indicate that all the examined risk indexes offer a performance linkable to the miss detection rate. However, the classical Probability of Collision can underperform with respect to the Mahalanobis distance detector, which might be preferred for its simplicity instead.</span></span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 532-541"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Space vehicle reliability assessment for selected medium space powers","authors":"Contessa G. Norris,&nbsp;Robert A. Bettinger,&nbsp;Travis M. Grile","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span>This research examines space launch vehicle (SLV) and satellite reliability trends through a variety of statistical methods such as the first-level Bayesian estimation and the Weibull distribution for France, India, Israel, Japan<span>, and South Korea. Datasets derived from the Seradata database included the following information: launch date, inactive date, launch country, satellite owner country, vehicle family, satellite name, orbit category, satellite status, mass category, event, event date, and event remarks. The first-level Bayesian estimation and success rates were calculated for 538 SLV launches from each country’s first launch date to 31 December 2023. Overall, 51 launches were failures, making up 9.48 % of total launches for the countries analyzed; 57.8 % of launches were sent to </span></span>low Earth orbit (LEO) while 4.28 % were sent beyond geosynchronous/geostationary orbit (GEO-GSO). Of 18 SLVs analyzed, 6 vehicle families exhibited realized success rates above 90 %. Since 1965, 809 satellites were launched, with a 1.98 % failure rate. The primary cause of failure was due to the satellites, inability to transmit signals, making communication, command, and control unattainable. Ultimately, through Weibull distribution, satellites owned by France, India, Japan, and South Korea showed a decreasing failure rate over time while results from Israeli satellites were inconclusive.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 513-531"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Orbital re-entries of human-made space objects: Drawbacks for the upper atmosphere and the safety of people","authors":"Carmen Pardini,&nbsp;Luciano Anselmo","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The controlled and uncontrolled orbital re-entries occurred from 2010 to 2023 were reviewed. Excluding five Space Shuttle orbiters, the total mass re-entered into the atmosphere exceeded 4400 metric tons. In the five-year period 2019-2023, controlled re-entries accounted for nearly 62 % of the returned mass, including 31 % from Falcon 9 second stages alone, while uncontrolled re-entries of intact objects and large debris were responsible for the remaining 38 %. In 2023, the orbital re-entry mass dispersed as gas and particulate in the upper atmosphere was close to 600 metric tons.</div><div>The ground casualty probability associated with the uncontrolled re-entry of satellites, orbital stages and large debris varied, on an annual basis, from 0.8 % in 2010 to 3.5 % in 2023, assuming the complete demise of all objects of less than 300 kg. In 2023, 70 % of the casualty probability was associated with orbital stages, 20 % with satellites and 10 % with large fragments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 274-283"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Space applications in manned underwater research stations","authors":"Martin Henke ,&nbsp;Frank Scharmann ,&nbsp;Michele Rosari","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the new era of manned space travel to the surfaces of other celestial bodies, there is also a need for new simulation possibilities. The advantages of using underwater habitats for this purpose have often been discussed. However, previous facilities such as former habitats, space analogue missions, and training pools have various shortcomings in relation to the new requirements. With a new generation of underwater habitats, these shortcomings can be eliminated by changing the design and using current technologies. Here, we report on the similarities and limitations between extreme environments in space and underwater. Reduced gravity in space is similar to different degrees of buoyancy outside the habitat. Furthermore, stress factors and demands on logistics, technology, and personnel are alike. To simulate longer stays, new focal points are required in terms of the human factor. This includes the ability to add other modules, larger usable areas, and mobility. The American underwater laboratory Aquarius is now only suitable to a limited extent for these new requirements, just like the other approximately 70 habitat projects that have mostly been discontinued. In Calamar Park's interdisciplinary concept of a European Underwater Research Station, all those requirements necessary for the new demands of space travel have been implemented.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 371-376"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Front page with the caption related to the front cover","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S2468-8967(25)00067-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S2468-8967(25)00067-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Page i"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Partial heat curing enhancing space debris shielding performance in multi-layered inflatable structures","authors":"Hikaru Takahashi ,&nbsp;Yoshihiro Sugiyama ,&nbsp;Ryo Kuzuno ,&nbsp;Sunao Hasegawa ,&nbsp;Kiyonobu Ohtani ,&nbsp;Yushin Hara ,&nbsp;Kanjuro Makihara","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study proposes a partially heat-cured space debris shield, where only some sheets of traditional multi-shock fabric shields are heat-cured. This approach simplifies on-orbit heat curing as it requires curing a smaller portion of material compared to fully heat-cured inflatable structures. Hypervelocity experiments examined the optimal placement of cured layers within the debris shield, showing that placing them on the upstream side of the first layer maximizes protection performance. This study assessed the protective performance of inflatable structures against space debris collision under consistent areal density conditions, highlighting the improved performance of multi-shock shields subjected to heat curing. Hypervelocity impact experiments revealed that the penetration area of partially heat-cured shields was significantly smaller than that of uncured shields, confirming the benefits of heat curing. We developed spread angle and ballistic limit equations for partial heat-cured shield applications. These equations verified that effective debris protection can be maintained with partial curing, even with reduced standoff. Numerical simulations using smoothed particle hydrodynamics corroborated the experimental results, indicating that strategically placed heat-cured layers enhance protection. Overall, these findings suggest that partially heat-cured shields improve the protection and deployment efficiency of inflatable structures in space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 253-265"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hydrocode simulations of debris impacts on the secondary containment vessel during landing of the Mars Sample Return earth entry vehicle","authors":"Darrel Robertson ,&nbsp;Peter Gage ,&nbsp;Kelly Carney","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>NASA sample return missions must satisfy backward planetary protection requirements which include the need to assure robust containment. The Earth Entry System architecture that was in place in December 2023 is passive after release from the carrier spacecraft; the entry trajectory is ballistic, and no parachute is used. At release, the system is targeted to land on soft soil within the Utah Test and Training Range, and displacement of the soil should absorb much of the impact energy. In the unlikely event that the vehicle impacts a hard surface, or a damaged vehicle lands at higher-than-predicted velocity, the heat shield may break and potentially cause debris to impact the Secondary Containment Vessel which houses the samples. This paper describes a set of hydrocode simulations of potential debris items striking the Secondary Containment Vessel, to show that the 2023 design can withstand such impacts and the risk of loss of containment is negligible except at impact velocities in excess of 200 m/s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 284-292"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"MAS—A mission analysis software for collision risk quantification and impact assessment of rule-based decision-making for collision avoidance","authors":"Simon Burgis ,&nbsp;Hans Rübberdt ,&nbsp;Christoph Gaedigk ,&nbsp;Louis Keuper ,&nbsp;Georgette Naufal ,&nbsp;Jonko Paetzold ,&nbsp;Xanthi Oikonomidou ,&nbsp;Benjamin Bastida Virgili","doi":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jsse.2025.04.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing number of operational spacecraft in orbit around Earth results in an increasing operational effort for collision avoidance (COLA), particularly concerning the coordination of COLA measures. In order to cope with this increased effort, the automation of future COLA operations is therefore indispensable. The Mission Analysis Software (MAS) is a web-based application developed at the Technical University of Darmstadt within the project collision avoidance, satellite coordination assessment demonstration environment (CASCADE) which is funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). The MAS promotes a rule-based approach for the automation of COLA coordination within the space community by providing analyses based on data-driven simulations.</div><div>To this end, the MAS enables satellite operators to quantify the risk related to conjunctions involving other active satellites for operational or planned missions. In addition, users of the MAS can conduct a rule analysis showing the impact of incorporating a rule-based coordination approach into operations. To achieve this, users can assemble hierarchical rule sets from pre-defined customisable rule building blocks. The MAS evaluates the operational consequences of a chosen rule set, empowering users to reach bilateral and multilateral agreements with frequently conjuncting parties. With these agreements the obligation to conduct COLA manoeuvres can be assigned automatically for future conjunctions.</div><div>This approach allows for the preemptive reduction of the expected number of conjunctions enabling operators to optimise orbit parameters within their mission constraints as well as the automation of COLA coordination during operations. Through this, the MAS optimises propellant needs, mission time, and required workforce associated with COLA for space missions.</div><div>This paper presents the MAS, highlighting key features developed in close collaboration with stakeholders and the European Space Agency. The workflow for utilising the MAS is briefly outlined, while the primary emphasis of the paper is on detailing the conjunction assessment approach of the MAS.</div><div>For this purpose, the paper presents the uncertainty estimation model of the MAS which is designed to estimate positional uncertainties of satellites based on data from ESA’s <em>Kelvins</em> collision avoidance data challenge. Subsequently, the methodology of the MAS for deriving avoided and remaining risk values and estimated number of manoeuvres for a simulated mission from this uncertainty data is explained showing how operational aspects of COLA are integrated into this process. Lastly, results of the MAS are presented and validated with data from ESA’s DRAMA tool suite.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":37283,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Space Safety Engineering","volume":"12 2","pages":"Pages 338-356"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}