Reducing reentry casualty risk for spacecraft on long-term reentering eccentric inclined geosynchronous (Tundra) disposal orbits

This paper considers disposal of spacecraft and upper stages on eccentric inclined geosynchronous orbits (eccentric IGSOs), specifically the class known as Tundra orbits. The U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) released in December 2019 include a disposal option to use orbital eccentricity growth for long-term reentry within 200 years that could be used for Tundra orbits. A condition of this disposal option is that reentry casualty risk be limited. An analysis was performed to assess reentry casualty risk for a generic Tundra spacecraft and typical upper stages on Tundra disposal orbits. From propagation sweeps accounting for eccentricity growth of Tundra disposal orbits, several Tundra disposal orbit cases were selected for reentry analysis. A reentry risk analysis for these cases assuming reentry from near-circular orbits was performed. Results show that predicted casualty risk for the generic Tundra spacecraft and typical upper stages well exceed allowable risk limits in the ODMSP. An analysis of reentry from the selected Tundra disposal orbits accounting for the high eccentricity due to eccentricity growth just before reentry was then performed. Results show that the distribution of reentry points on the Earth can be concentrated over ocean in the southern hemisphere where there is less human population. The generic Tundra spacecraft and one of the upper stages considered were then found to be compliant with the limit of 1 in 10,000 expected casualties in the ODMSP. These results indicate promise for wider usage of the long-term re-entry option in the ODMSP.