Forensic analysis of recent debris-generating events

Every on-orbit collision or explosion can pose a threat, not only to the existing satellite population but also to the long-term usability of Earth orbit. This threat exists even if satellites can actively maneuver to avoid trackable debris fragments, since an estimated 96 % of potentially mission-ending (>1 cm) debris is untrackable [1]. Prevention of every on-orbit breakup may not be possible. However, armed with an understanding of the likely causes of fragmentation events, satellite developers and operators can take actions to mitigate such events in the future. Astrodynamics forensic analyses, the sleuthing techniques used to gather an event's known details and estimate its unknown parameters, can be used to develop theories about the causes of a breakup and to predict its consequences.

In the past five years, several on-orbit collisions and explosions have occurred, involving a variety of orbiting objects with varying amounts of available observational data. Techniques and tools developed over decades at The Aerospace Corporation are used to characterize key parameters of these events, including spread velocity of the debris pieces, energy involved in the breakup events, and mass and area estimates of the individual debris fragments. These forensic capabilities are enhanced by utilizing patterns identified from different classes of historical breakups and ground-test data. This paper shows the effectiveness of this methodology when used for analysis of a variety of event types including collisions, such as the Cosmos 1408 ASAT test and SL-14 rocket body breakup, rocket body fragmentations such as the 2022 Long March 6A breakup, and satellite fragmentations such as the Resur-O1 breakup. Representative models of events are developed using the IMPACT fragmentation tool, and predictions of the lifetimes of the subtrackable orbital debris are included. Where event sources are unknown, breakup parameters and trends are used to suggest possible causes. The challenges of analyzing an orbital breakup mystery with few observational clues are also discussed.