Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique","authors":"Zongmin Yue,&nbsp;Yingpan Zhang,&nbsp;Xiangrui Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne and environmental aquatic transmission pathways. Unlike eradication-focused approaches, the model targets population suppression through sterile male releases, allowing controlled coexistence of sterile and wild mosquitoes. Dynamical analysis reveals critical thresholds: when the sterile insect release rate <em>b</em> &lt; <em>b</em>_<em>p</em> and Allee effects are weak (<em>r</em> &lt; <em>r</em>_<em>p</em>), the system stabilizes at a coexistence equilibrium; exceeding these thresholds drives population collapse. While low wild mosquito densities may theoretically risk extinction, such levels are epidemiologically insufficient to trigger outbreaks, as viral resurgence requires a critical population density. The basic reproduction number <em>R</em>₀ was derived under coexistence conditions, demonstrating that <em>R</em>₀ &gt; 1 ensures viral persistence. Additionally, a multi-objective optimal control framework prioritizes cost minimization over infection reduction, offering resource-efficient strategies. Environmental transmission, a hallmark of Zika virus, accelerates early infection spread but is effectively mitigated by SIT. These results establish actionable thresholds (<em>b</em>_<em>p</em>, <em>r</em>_<em>p</em>) for balancing mosquito suppression and disease control, while providing theoretical insights applicable to dengue, malaria, and other arboviral diseases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"11 1","pages":"Pages 47-71"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Surveillance of infectious diseases spreading on time-varying multiplex networks","authors":"Jinyi Hu ,&nbsp;Haoyue Zheng ,&nbsp;Yunyi Cai ,&nbsp;Yixiu Kong ,&nbsp;Yao Wang ,&nbsp;Gui-Quan Sun ,&nbsp;Jiancheng Lv ,&nbsp;Quan-Hui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.10.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.10.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surveillance of infectious disease transmission is crucial for early detection and timely intervention. Existing studies mainly focus on static single-layer networks, primarily aiming to identify which types of nodes can provide early warning signals and accurate information on infections. Yet, real-world contact patterns are multiplex and time-varying, strongly shaping epidemic dynamics. Here, we propose a modeling framework for disease spread on time-varying multiplex networks and evaluate five node selection strategies: most connected, random, friends of random, most recent contacts, and most frequent contacts by using three metrics: early warning, peak timing, and peak ratio. These strategies are also tested across three scenarios with varying levels of structural information: Aggregated, Single-layer and Coupled networks. Simulation results show that the most connected strategy yields the best results across all metrics and scenarios, but it is costly and often impractical when full network information is unavailable. Importantly, our findings exhibit that the frequent-contact strategy on Coupled networks offers a practical alternative, achieving performance comparable to the most connected approach. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of these findings. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for multiplexity and temporal dynamics in surveillance design and provide guidance for effective sentinel placement in epidemic monitoring.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"11 1","pages":"Pages 256-267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework using large time series model for early warning of infectious diseases","authors":"Yajie Liu ,&nbsp;Xiaoli Wang ,&nbsp;Zhidong Cao ,&nbsp;Tianyi Luo ,&nbsp;Peng Yang ,&nbsp;Quanyi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><div>Infectious diseases controlling system is indispensable for weaken the damage to the people's life and property security caused by infectious diseases. An effective infectious diseases controlling system must incorporate an early warning mechanism designed to detect abnormal rising trends (outbreak) in spatial-temporal series. However, existing anomaly detection methods are often constrained by the quality and quantity of available data in specific application scenarios, particularly in infectious diseases early warning scenarios.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The emergence of generative pre-trained large time series models—hereafter referred to as large time series models—may provide a solution to this challenge. Based on these models, we propose an effective early warning framework.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We compared the framework with statistic and deep learning methods on real-world infectious diseases datasets and related derived datasets. Our framework has a better performance and requires less data.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>We propose a readily deployable early warning framework characterized by strong generalization ability and exceptional performance, which would enlighten the epidemic modeling researchers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"11 1","pages":"Pages 107-120"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional variation and epidemiological insights in malaria underestimation in Cameroon","authors":"Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ,&nbsp;Qing Han ,&nbsp;Ngem Bede Yong ,&nbsp;Ghislain Rutayisire ,&nbsp;Agnes Adom-Konadu ,&nbsp;Okwen Patrick Mbah ,&nbsp;David Poumo Tchouassi ,&nbsp;Kingsley Badu ,&nbsp;Jude Dzevela Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Despite significant global effort to control and eradicate malaria, many cases and deaths are still reported yearly. These efforts are hindered by several factors, including the severe underestimation of cases and deaths, especially in Africa.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We used a mathematical model, incorporating the underestimation of cases and seasonality in mosquito biting rate, to study the malaria dynamics in Cameroon. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we calibrated our model to the monthly reported malaria cases in ten regions of Cameroon from 2019 to 2021 to quantify the underestimation of cases and estimate other important epidemiological parameters. We performed Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Components analysis to understand regional disparities, looking at underestimation rates, population sizes, healthcare personnel, and healthcare facilities per 1000 people.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We found varying levels of case underestimation across regions, with the East region having the lowest (14 %) and the Northwest having the highest (70 %). The mosquito biting rate peaks once every year in most regions, except in the Northwest where it peaks every 6.02 months and in Littoral every 15 months. We estimated a median mosquito biting rate of over 5 bites/day for most regions with Littoral having the highest (9.86 bites/day). Two regions have rates below five: Adamawa (4.78 bites/day) and East (4.64 bites/day).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The low case estimation underscores the pressing requirement to bolster reporting and surveillance systems. Regions in Cameroon display a range of unique features contributing to the differing levels of underestimation. These distinctions should be considered when evaluating the efficacy of community-based interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1103-1115"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A discrete SIR epidemic model incorporating media impact, resource limitaions and threshold switching strategies","authors":"Wenjie Qin ,&nbsp;Shan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yi Yang ,&nbsp;Jiamin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper explores the effects of media influence and limited medical resources on the spread of infectious diseases using mathematical modeling. We construct a switching epidemic model that incorporates a media influence factor, an inoculation function, and a cure function. This model is subsequently discretized and studied via Euler's method. The number of susceptible individuals serves as the switching threshold, determining when media influence and healthcare resources intervene. By conducting an in-depth analysis of the equilibria of two subsystems, we have not only demonstrated the existence and stability conditions of the equilibria but also proposed the flip bifurcation theory for <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>S</mi></mrow><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>G</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></msub></math></span>. Through single-parameter bifurcation analysis, we identify complex dynamic behaviors such as stability, periodicity, and chaos, and examined the impact of key parameters on these dynamics. We also compared the dynamic behaviors of the discrete and continuous models. Additionally, we delve into the interaction between initial populations of susceptible and infected individuals and its effect on outbreak outcomes, as well as the coexistence of attractors. Our research sheds light on the intricate relationship between media influence, constrained medical resources, and infectious disease propagation, offering recommendations for disease control and intervention approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1270-1290"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144623480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB","authors":"V.M. Mbalilo ,&nbsp;F. Nyabadza ,&nbsp;S.P. Gatyeni","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB. The model incorporates stages of TB infection (latent and active), and accounts for the effects of treatment, funding and TB-funded prevention programs. Our analysis shows that increased funding and enhanced prevention programs reduce the number of active TB cases, thereby decreasing the reproduction number and TB endemicity. Specifically, higher funding rates lead to improved prevention and treatment outcomes, resulting in the lowering of the effective reproduction number <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> and reduced transmission. The model's steady states are determined and it is shown that the model has a disease-free equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable whenever <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span> and multiple endemic equilibria for <span><math><msubsup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi></mrow></msubsup><mo>&lt;</mo><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span> and a unique endemic equilibrium for <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&gt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span>. The model is shown to exhibit a backward bifurcation that vanishes as the funding for TB is increased. The paper also highlights that treatment alone, while beneficial, is less effective than a combined strategy involving funding and prevention. Numerical simulations are carried out and the influences of various parameters on the effective reproduction number are investigated. The implications of TB-funded prevention programs on TB dynamics and control of TB are discussed and valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective TB control programs are highlighted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1037-1054"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling Neisseria meningitidis transmission dynamics and the impact of pentavalent vaccination targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X in the African meningitis belt","authors":"Nafiu Hussaini ,&nbsp;Abdulrazaq G. Habib ,&nbsp;Iliyasu Garba ,&nbsp;Isa A. Baba ,&nbsp;Andrés Colubri ,&nbsp;Ismail Abdulrashid ,&nbsp;Salihu S. Musa","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The African meningitis belt (AMB) faces recurring epidemics of <em>Neisseria meningitidis</em> (Nm) (a bacterium that causes meningococcal meningitis), posing significant public health challenges. This study develops a Susceptible-Carrier-Infected-Recovered (SCIR)-based dynamic model to investigate Nm transmission dynamics in the AMB region, focussing on the impact of pentavalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines targeting serogroups A, C, W-135, Y, and X. By incoporating vaccination strategies into the model, we provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating vaccine effectiveness and informing outbreak prevention and control efforts. Our model stratifies the population into high-risk individuals (ages 1–29 years), who are the primary targets of vaccination campaigns, and low-risk individuals (all other age groups), capturing differences in susceptibility and vaccine coverage. Our results reveal that the introduction of pentavalent vaccines significantly reduces the prevalence of carriers, particularly among high-risk groups, thereby curbing transmission and mitigating epidemic risks across the AMB region. Key epidemiological parameters, including reproduction numbers (<em>R</em>_<em>0</em>), are derived to support targeted intervention strategies. Further analysis highlights the role of vaccination in lowering Nm transmissibility, especially in densely populated settings where close contact accelerates spread. Moreover, potential drivers of Nm outbreaks, including climate variability, socioeconomic disparities, and population density, are identified, highlighting the need for integrated public health intervention strategies. Further simulations also reveal the effectiveness of pentavalent vaccination among high-risk populations; however, further research is urgently needed to understand disease heterogeneity and vulnerability, particularly in young children and underserved communities. Thus, this study contribute to advancing our understanding of effective and sustainable vaccination strategies and enhancing epidemic preparedness in meningitis-endemic regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1355-1383"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Avian influenza virus dynamics in poultry and the environment: an eight-year longitudinal study in the southwestern Poyang Lake region of China","authors":"Wentao Song ,&nbsp;Fenglan He ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Deng ,&nbsp;Maohong Hu ,&nbsp;Kang Fang ,&nbsp;Wenjuan Cheng ,&nbsp;Jingwen Wu ,&nbsp;Xi Wang ,&nbsp;Guoyin Fan ,&nbsp;Lingyan Kong ,&nbsp;Yisheng Zhou ,&nbsp;Kangguo Li ,&nbsp;Buasiyamu Abudunaibi ,&nbsp;Xiuhua Kang ,&nbsp;Tianxin Xiang ,&nbsp;Hui Li ,&nbsp;Tianmu Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surveillance of the Avian influenza virus serves as the first line of defense, encompassing monitoring of both animals and environment. These approaches vary across countries due to differences in epidemiology and public health policies. We conducted an eight-year active surveillance program in the Poyang Lake region, a critical wintering site along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, to investigate the correlation between poultry and environmental samples. From February 2017 to June 2024, 7570 poultry and environmental samples were collected and tested in Nanchang, the largest city in the Poyang Lake region, revealing an overall avian influenza positivity rate of 40.1 %. In 2017, the poultry and environmental positivity rates were 16.9 % and 15.5 %, respectively. By 2024, these rates had risen to 69.4 % and 77.7 %, respectively, with significant and consistent annual increases observed in both environmental and poultry samples. Specifically, in poultry surveillance, chickens (54.2 %) showed higher overall AIV positivity rates compared to ducks (30.6 %), and oropharyngeal swabs (45.5 %) demonstrated greater sensitivity than cloacal swabs (22.3 %). Analysis of environmental samples revealed that, compared with smear samples (39.0 %) and fecal samples (30.9 %), sewage samples (46.5 %) exhibit superior sensitivity. Correlation and wavelet coherence analyses revealed a significant relationship between environmental and poultry samples. In scenarios where poultry sampling is unavailable, environmental surveillance can complement and potentially serve as an alternative to poultry surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1126-1137"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019–2022 in Huaian, China","authors":"Xiaomeng Wang ,&nbsp;Jianli Hu ,&nbsp;Zhiming Wang ,&nbsp;Yongli Cai ,&nbsp;Daihai He","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.010","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Background&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Influenza is a global public health and economic burden. Its seasonality patterns differ considerably between geographic regions, but the factors underlying these differences are not well characterized.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The data on influenza were obtained from 2019 to 2022 in Huaian. A descriptive study was used to describe the epidemiological characteristics.The DLNM(distributed lag nonlinear model) model was established to further analyze the relationship between influenza cases, meteorological factors and pollutants. In addition, the attribution risk analysis and the interaction analysis further explored the interaction between the attributable risk and meteorological factors of influenza in terms of meteorological factors.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;A total of 9205 cases of influenza were reported in Huaian City from 2019 to 2022, Jiangsu province, of which 4938 cases were males and 4267 cases were females.The DLNM results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;(Fine Particulate Matter) and temperature and influenza.The low concentration of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;(Ozone) showed decreased risks, and the maximum effect values appeared on the 8th day (RR(Relative Ris) = 0.35,95 %CI(Confidence Interval): 0.25–0.49) and the 2nd day (RR = 0.63,95 %CI: 0.52–0.77). At the high concentration, the cumulative RR values of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; reached their maximum on the 8th day (RR = 1.93,95 %CI: 1.47–2.54) and the 9th day (RR = 2.58,95 %CI: 1.63–4.09). The attribution analysis based on DLNM showed that the AF(attributable fraction) value of influenza attributable to the high concentration of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; exposure was 15.90 %, equivalent to 1456 cases. AF of the high concentration of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; was 8.12 % (743 cases). The AF of low temperature effect was 30.91 % (2830 cases). The interaction analysis showed that high temperature reduced the influence of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; on the onset of influenza, showing an antagonistic effect (RR = 0.31, 95 %CI: 0.15–0.65), IRR(interaction relative risk) and RERI(interaction relative risk) were 0.17 (95 %CI: 0.08–0.37) and −1.62 (95 %CI: 2.65∼-0.68), respectively.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Conclusion&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;The results show that low temperature significantly increases the risk of influenza. At the low concentration of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;, the risk of influenza increases with increasing concentration but decreases at the high concentrations. At the high concentration of O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;, the risk of influenza increases rapidly. 15.90 % of influenza cases may be attributed to the high concentration of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;, equivalent to 1456 cases; temperature-induced cases mainly come from the low-temperature effect, with an AF value of 30.91 %, equivalent to 2830 cases. In addition, high temperature can effectively mitigate the impact of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; on influenza incidence, and outdoor exposure time should be min","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1384-1397"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation","authors":"Seiko Fujiwara ,&nbsp;Hiroshi Nishiura ,&nbsp;Takuma Shirasaka ,&nbsp;Akifumi Imamura","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals by age is essential for improving the test-and-treat strategy. We developed an extended back-calculation by age group to investigate the situation in Japan, describing the data-generating process of AIDS cases and HIV diagnoses as a function of age and time. We considered the incubation period as a function of both age and time since infection, and estimated the number of new HIV infections and annual diagnosis rate by age and time. The diagnosed proportion of HIV infections at the end of 2022 was estimated to be 93.2 % (95 % CI: 90.2, 95.8) in their 20s, 90.4 % (95 % CI: 87.0, 93.7) in their 40s, 90.3 % (95 % CI: 86.9, 93.5) in their 50s or older, and 89.4 % (95 % CI: 85.1, 93.2) in their 30s. The annual rate of diagnosis of people in their 40s decreased from 16.9 % in 2015–2019 to 14.8 % in 2020–22. Despite increasing trend in diagnostic rate, the estimate for those in their 50s was as small as 13.6 % (95 % CI: 8.5, 19.4) in 2020–2022. We identified a difficulty in diagnosing HIV-infected individuals aged 40 and older. The absolute number of infections is greater among those in their 30s than 40s, but the AIDS incidence is the opposite, suggesting that older individuals would require more customized (and easy to access) opportunities for diagnosis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1116-1125"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}