Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Avian influenza virus dynamics in poultry and the environment: an eight-year longitudinal study in the southwestern Poyang Lake region of China","authors":"Wentao Song ,&nbsp;Fenglan He ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Deng ,&nbsp;Maohong Hu ,&nbsp;Kang Fang ,&nbsp;Wenjuan Cheng ,&nbsp;Jingwen Wu ,&nbsp;Xi Wang ,&nbsp;Guoyin Fan ,&nbsp;Lingyan Kong ,&nbsp;Yisheng Zhou ,&nbsp;Kangguo Li ,&nbsp;Buasiyamu Abudunaibi ,&nbsp;Xiuhua Kang ,&nbsp;Tianxin Xiang ,&nbsp;Hui Li ,&nbsp;Tianmu Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surveillance of the Avian influenza virus serves as the first line of defense, encompassing monitoring of both animals and environment. These approaches vary across countries due to differences in epidemiology and public health policies. We conducted an eight-year active surveillance program in the Poyang Lake region, a critical wintering site along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, to investigate the correlation between poultry and environmental samples. From February 2017 to June 2024, 7570 poultry and environmental samples were collected and tested in Nanchang, the largest city in the Poyang Lake region, revealing an overall avian influenza positivity rate of 40.1 %. In 2017, the poultry and environmental positivity rates were 16.9 % and 15.5 %, respectively. By 2024, these rates had risen to 69.4 % and 77.7 %, respectively, with significant and consistent annual increases observed in both environmental and poultry samples. Specifically, in poultry surveillance, chickens (54.2 %) showed higher overall AIV positivity rates compared to ducks (30.6 %), and oropharyngeal swabs (45.5 %) demonstrated greater sensitivity than cloacal swabs (22.3 %). Analysis of environmental samples revealed that, compared with smear samples (39.0 %) and fecal samples (30.9 %), sewage samples (46.5 %) exhibit superior sensitivity. Correlation and wavelet coherence analyses revealed a significant relationship between environmental and poultry samples. In scenarios where poultry sampling is unavailable, environmental surveillance can complement and potentially serve as an alternative to poultry surveillance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1126-1137"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating undiagnosed HIV infections by age group in Japan: an extended age-dependent back-calculation","authors":"Seiko Fujiwara ,&nbsp;Hiroshi Nishiura ,&nbsp;Takuma Shirasaka ,&nbsp;Akifumi Imamura","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals by age is essential for improving the test-and-treat strategy. We developed an extended back-calculation by age group to investigate the situation in Japan, describing the data-generating process of AIDS cases and HIV diagnoses as a function of age and time. We considered the incubation period as a function of both age and time since infection, and estimated the number of new HIV infections and annual diagnosis rate by age and time. The diagnosed proportion of HIV infections at the end of 2022 was estimated to be 93.2 % (95 % CI: 90.2, 95.8) in their 20s, 90.4 % (95 % CI: 87.0, 93.7) in their 40s, 90.3 % (95 % CI: 86.9, 93.5) in their 50s or older, and 89.4 % (95 % CI: 85.1, 93.2) in their 30s. The annual rate of diagnosis of people in their 40s decreased from 16.9 % in 2015–2019 to 14.8 % in 2020–22. Despite increasing trend in diagnostic rate, the estimate for those in their 50s was as small as 13.6 % (95 % CI: 8.5, 19.4) in 2020–2022. We identified a difficulty in diagnosing HIV-infected individuals aged 40 and older. The absolute number of infections is greater among those in their 30s than 40s, but the AIDS incidence is the opposite, suggesting that older individuals would require more customized (and easy to access) opportunities for diagnosis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1116-1125"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the potential impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB","authors":"V.M. Mbalilo ,&nbsp;F. Nyabadza ,&nbsp;S.P. Gatyeni","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major global health challenge, with millions of new cases and deaths each year despite the massive efforts and funding put in the fight against the disease. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of TB-funded prevention programs on the transmission dynamics of TB. The model incorporates stages of TB infection (latent and active), and accounts for the effects of treatment, funding and TB-funded prevention programs. Our analysis shows that increased funding and enhanced prevention programs reduce the number of active TB cases, thereby decreasing the reproduction number and TB endemicity. Specifically, higher funding rates lead to improved prevention and treatment outcomes, resulting in the lowering of the effective reproduction number <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> and reduced transmission. The model's steady states are determined and it is shown that the model has a disease-free equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable whenever <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span> and multiple endemic equilibria for <span><math><msubsup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mrow><mi>c</mi></mrow></msubsup><mo>&lt;</mo><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&lt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span> and a unique endemic equilibrium for <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>&gt;</mo><mn>1</mn></math></span>. The model is shown to exhibit a backward bifurcation that vanishes as the funding for TB is increased. The paper also highlights that treatment alone, while beneficial, is less effective than a combined strategy involving funding and prevention. Numerical simulations are carried out and the influences of various parameters on the effective reproduction number are investigated. The implications of TB-funded prevention programs on TB dynamics and control of TB are discussed and valuable insights for policymakers in designing effective TB control programs are highlighted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1037-1054"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and projections of hepatitis E incidence in Jiangsu Province of eastern China from 2007 to 2021: An analysis based on age-period-cohort models","authors":"Xiaoqing Cheng ,&nbsp;Zehui Zhang ,&nbsp;Weili Kang ,&nbsp;Xuefeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Peng ,&nbsp;Changjun Bao","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study aims to evaluate Hepatitis E incidence trends by age, period, and birth cohort in Jiangsu Province from 2007 to 2021 and project the future trends.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Data on Hepatitis E cases in Jiangsu Province were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. Joinpoint regression models analyzed annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort model decomposed and Bayesian age-period-cohort projected the trends.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Between 2007 and 2021, a total of 46180 cases of Hepatitis E were reported. Both the overall and sex-specific trends revealed a single inflection point, and the average annual percentage change was -3.63% (95% CI: -7.33% ∼ -0.87%, <em>P</em> &lt; 0.05) for male. The net drift value is -5.13%, with -6.28% for males and -2.39% for females. Significant local drift variations were observed, especially in the 20–24 age group (-11.51%). The age curve indicated the peak at 15.94 per 100000 for males in the 25–29 age group and at 4.42 per 100000 for females in the 50–54 age group. The period effect demonstrated the incidence rates for females lagged behind for males. The cohort effect indicated earlier cohorts exhibited higher incidence rates. projected an increase in incidence rates for the 65–69 age group from 2022 to 2031, with a overall incidence rate of 11.31 (95% CI: 2.80 ∼ 31.58) per 100000 in 2031.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Hepatitis E incidence has decreased from 2007 to 2021 for male in Jiangsu Province, and Age-period-cohort analysis revealed sex differences, which may be associated with different exposure routes. Continuous surveillance and timely interventions are essential to 65–69 age group.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1093-1102"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional variation and epidemiological insights in malaria underestimation in Cameroon","authors":"Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ,&nbsp;Qing Han ,&nbsp;Ngem Bede Yong ,&nbsp;Ghislain Rutayisire ,&nbsp;Agnes Adom-Konadu ,&nbsp;Okwen Patrick Mbah ,&nbsp;David Poumo Tchouassi ,&nbsp;Kingsley Badu ,&nbsp;Jude Dzevela Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Despite significant global effort to control and eradicate malaria, many cases and deaths are still reported yearly. These efforts are hindered by several factors, including the severe underestimation of cases and deaths, especially in Africa.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We used a mathematical model, incorporating the underestimation of cases and seasonality in mosquito biting rate, to study the malaria dynamics in Cameroon. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we calibrated our model to the monthly reported malaria cases in ten regions of Cameroon from 2019 to 2021 to quantify the underestimation of cases and estimate other important epidemiological parameters. We performed Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Components analysis to understand regional disparities, looking at underestimation rates, population sizes, healthcare personnel, and healthcare facilities per 1000 people.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>We found varying levels of case underestimation across regions, with the East region having the lowest (14 %) and the Northwest having the highest (70 %). The mosquito biting rate peaks once every year in most regions, except in the Northwest where it peaks every 6.02 months and in Littoral every 15 months. We estimated a median mosquito biting rate of over 5 bites/day for most regions with Littoral having the highest (9.86 bites/day). Two regions have rates below five: Adamawa (4.78 bites/day) and East (4.64 bites/day).</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The low case estimation underscores the pressing requirement to bolster reporting and surveillance systems. Regions in Cameroon display a range of unique features contributing to the differing levels of underestimation. These distinctions should be considered when evaluating the efficacy of community-based interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1103-1115"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV","authors":"O.Y. Oludoun ,&nbsp;O. Abiodun ,&nbsp;B. Gbadamosi ,&nbsp;J.K. Oladejo ,&nbsp;E.I. Akinola ,&nbsp;O.N. Emuoyibofarhe ,&nbsp;O. Adebimpe","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes a mathematical model of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) epidemics using fractional calculus, with a special emphasis on the influence of spontaneous clearance across diverse population groups. Using the Atangana-Baleanu derivative, the model accounts for the complications of vertical and horizontal transmission, therapy, immunisation, and spontaneous clearance. Numerical simulations with different fractional orders demonstrate how spontaneous clearance affects the dynamics of susceptible, chronic, treated, and recovered populations. The findings indicate that in vulnerable populations, increasing spontaneous clearance reduces vulnerability because people either clear the illness naturally or gain resistance.However, in chronic populations, spontaneous clearance is insufficient for complete recovery without treatment. The combination of therapy and spontaneous clearance improves the treated population, demonstrating the beneficial effects of both medical intervention and natural immunity. Furthermore, increased spontaneous clearance boosts the restored population, demonstrating the immune system's ability to eliminate the virus over time. The fractional-order framework captures the memory effect of illness development, revealing how healing is time-dependent and how immune responses have a long-term impact. This study emphasises the need of combining spontaneous clearance with medical therapies to improve HBV management and public health consequences. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions. This study presents a fractional mathematical model of HBV infection, employing the Atangana-Baleanu derivative with Mittag-Leffler kernels to capture memory-dependent and nonlocal transmission processes. The model integrates vertical and horizontal transmission pathways, treatment strategies, immunization efforts, and spontaneous clearance, providing a nuanced perspective compared to classical models. Stability conditions are analyzed through fixed-point theory, revealing the global stability of both disease-free and endemic states under specific values of the basic reproduction number <em>R</em>₀. Numerical simulations demonstrate the model's effectiveness in capturing the complex dynamics of HBV, with fractional-order parameters enhancing prediction accuracy. This approach offers valuable insights into optimizing public health interventions and treatment strategies for managing HBV infections effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1019-1036"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City","authors":"Alice Oveson ,&nbsp;Michelle Girvan ,&nbsp;Abba B. Gumel","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted heterogeneities in human behavior and attitudes of individuals with respect to adherence or lack thereof to public health-mandated intervention and mitigation measures. This study is based on using mathematical modeling approaches, backed by data analytics and computation, to theoretically assess the impact of human behavioral changes on the trajectory, burden, and control of the COVID-19 pandemic during the first two waves in New York City. A novel behavior-epidemiology model, which considers <em>n</em> heterogeneous behavioral groups based on level of risk tolerance and distinguishes behavioral changes by social and disease-related motivations (such as peer-influence and fear of disease-related hospitalizations), is developed. In addition to rigorously analyzing the basic qualitative features of this model, a special case is considered where the total population is stratified into two groups: risk-averse (Group 1) and risk-tolerant (Group 2). The 2-group model was calibrated and validated using daily hospitalization data for New York City during the first wave, and the calibrated model was used to predict the data for the second wave. The 2-group model predicts the daily hospitalizations during the second wave almost perfectly, compared to the version without behavioral considerations, which fails to accurately predict the second wave. This suggests that epidemic models of the COVID-19 pandemic that do not explicitly account for heterogeneities in human behavior may fail to accurately predict the trajectory and burden of the pandemic in a population. Numerical simulations of the calibrated 2-group behavior model showed that while the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic during the first wave was largely influenced by the behavior of the risk-tolerant (Group 2) individuals, the dynamics during the second wave was influenced by the behavior of individuals in both groups. It was also shown that disease-motivated behavioral changes (i.e., behavior changes due to the level of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the community) had greater influence in significantly reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality than behavior changes due to the level of peer or social influence or pressure. Finally, it is shown that the initial proportion of members in the community that are risk-averse (i.e., the proportion of individuals in Group 1 at the beginning of the pandemic) and the early and effective implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions have major impacts in reducing the size and burden of the pandemic (particularly the total COVID-19 mortality in New York City during the second wave).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1055-1092"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies","authors":"Sarah Rollason ,&nbsp;Eleanor Riley ,&nbsp;Joanne Lello","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection with their causative parasites, <em>Plasmodium</em> spp. and <em>Schistosoma</em> spp., is common, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These parasites may interact with each other via their effects on the host immune system, but studies to date report conflicting consequences of such interactions, some suggesting that schistosomes are associated with reduced parasitaemia in malaria infection while others report increased parasitaemia. Schistosomes stimulate different immune components in early versus late infection. Using agent-based modelling we explore whether stage of infection could be a factor explaining the conflicting coinfection outcomes. Effects of schistosomes on blood stage malaria were modelled by adjusting the immune components within the model according to the response provoked by each schistosome stage. We find the dynamics of malaria infections are greatly influenced by the stage of schistosomes, with acute and chronic schistosome infections having opposite effects on both peak infected erythrocyte counts and duration. Our findings offer a possible explanation for the apparent contradictions between studies and highlight the importance of considering the stage of schistosome infection when exploring the relationship between these two parasites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1003-1018"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Comparison of contact tracing methods: A modelling study","authors":"Joanna X.R. Tan ,&nbsp;Lalitha Kurupatham ,&nbsp;Zubaidah Said ,&nbsp;Jeremy Chan ,&nbsp;Kelvin Bryan Tan ,&nbsp;Marc Ho ,&nbsp;Vernon Lee ,&nbsp;Alex R. Cook","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.007","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Introduction&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Contact tracing has been a key tool to contain the spread of diseases and was widely used by countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evaluating the effectiveness of contact tracing has been challenging. Approaches to contact tracing were diverse and country-dependent, with operations utilizing different tracing methods under varied environments. To provide guidance on contact tracing for future preparedness, we assessed the effectiveness of contact tracing methods under varied environments using Singapore's population structure and COVID-19 as the disease model.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;We developed a transmission network model using Singapore's contact tracing data and the characteristics of COVID-19 disease. We explored three different tracing methods that could be employed by contact tracing operations: forward tracing, extended tracing and cluster tracing. The forward tracing method covered the period starting two days before case isolation, the extended tracing method covered the period starting 16 days before case isolation, and the cluster tracing method combined forward tracing with cluster identification. Contact tracing operations traced detected cases from surveillance and issued interventions for identified contacts, and we constructed combinations of varied scenarios to replicate variability during pandemic, namely low case-ascertainment or high case-ascertainment and either testing of contacts or quarantine of contacts. We examined the impact of varied contact tracing operations on disease transmission and provider costs.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;h3&gt;Results&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;div&gt;Model simulations showed that the effectiveness of contact tracing methods varied under the four different scenarios. Firstly, under low case-ascertainment with testing of contacts, contact tracing reduced transmission by 12 %–22 %, with provider costs ranging between US$2943.56 to US$5226.82 per infection prevented. The most effective tracing method to control infection was cluster tracing, followed by extended tracing and forward tracing. Secondly, under low case-ascertainment with quarantine of contacts, transmission was reduced by 46 %–62 %, with provider costs below US$4000 per infection prevented. The cluster method reduced transmission by 62 %, enough to bring the reproduction number to close to unity and was the least costly. Extended tracing reduced transmission by 50 % but costed the most, while forward tracing reduced transmission by 46 %. Thirdly, under high case-ascertainment with testing of contacts, the average transmission was reduced by 20 %–26 %, with provider costs to prevent an infection ranging between US$1872.72 to US$3165.09. There was less variability between tracing methods, with cluster tracing reducing transmission the most, followed by extended tracing and forward tracing. Lastly, under high case-ascertainment and quarantine of contacts, contact tracing was the most effective, with provider costs bel","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 1020-1032"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144115887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia","authors":"Shovanur Haque ,&nbsp;Aiden Price ,&nbsp;Kerrie Mengersen ,&nbsp;Wenbiao Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease modelling by impacting the reliability of statistical inferences drawn from spatially aggregated data. This study examines the effect of MAUP on ecological model inference using locally and overseas-acquired COVID-19 case data from 2020 to 2023 in Queensland, Australia. Bayesian spatial Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) models were applied across four Statistical Area (SA) levels, as defined by the Australian Statistical Geography Standard, with and without covariates: Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and overseas-acquired (OA) COVID-19 cases. OA COVID-19 cases were also considered a response variable in our study. Results indicated that finer spatial scales (SA1 and SA2) captured localized patterns and significant spatial autocorrelation, while coarser levels (SA3 and SA4) smoothed spatial variability, masking potential outbreak clusters. Incorporating SEIFA as a covariate in locally-acquired (LA) cases reduced spatial autocorrelation in residuals, effectively capturing socioeconomic disparities. Conversely, OA cases showed limited effectiveness in reducing autocorrelation at finer scales. For LA cases, higher socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence at finer scales, but this association became non-significant at coarser scales. OA cases showed significant positive association with higher SEIFA scores at finer scales. Model parameters displayed narrower credible intervals at finer scales, indicating greater precision, while coarser levels had increased uncertainty. SA2 emerged as an arguably optimal scale, striking a balance between spatial resolution, model stability, and interpretability. To improve inference on COVID-19 incidence, it is recommended to use data from both SA1 and SA2 levels to leverage their respective strengths. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate spatial scales and covariates or evaluating the inferential impacts of multiple scales, to address MAUP to facilitate more reliable spatial analysis. The study advocates exploring intermediate aggregation levels and multi-scale approaches to better capture nuanced disease dynamics and extend these analyses across Australia and replicating in other countries with low population densities to enhance generalizability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 1002-1019"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144107619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}