Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Dynamic predicting hepatitis B surface antigen decline rate during treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B","authors":"Ying Xin ,&nbsp;Yuming Wang ,&nbsp;Qiang Li ,&nbsp;Xianghong Zhang ,&nbsp;Kaifa Wang ,&nbsp;Guangyu Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prediction of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) decline rates during treatment is crucial for achieving a higher proportion of functional cure outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and so is the identification of favorable patients. A total of 371 patients who received pegylated interferon alpha monotherapy or sequential/combined nucleos(t)ide analogues therapy between May 2018 and July 2024 were included for follow-up analysis. The patients were divided into a training set, a validation set and a test set via time series partitioning and random partitioning methods. The primary outcome was the prediction of HBsAg decline rate at each medical visit via linear mixed effects model. Patient stratification was secondary outcomes assessed using group-based trajectory model. The cumulative number of functional cures among 371 patients was 76 (20%, 95% CI: 16%–25%). Three groups, namely rapid high-clearance, delayed high-clearance, and slow low-clearance, were identified by the group trajectory model. The overall accuracy of the time-plus-group dual-effect prediction model was 84% (95% CI: 81%–87%), which was approximately 10% higher than that of the time-effect prediction model after 24 weeks of treatment. When the computational cost was combined, a pragmatic prediction strategy with robust individual prediction performance was obtained. The constructed group trajectory model and prediction strategy may have the potential to dynamically identify favorable patients and dynamically predict the HBsAg decline rate, thereby improving the functional cure rate in clinical practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 979-988"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of under-reporting influenza cases in Hong Kong based on bayesian hierarchical framework","authors":"Peiji Li,&nbsp;Mengmeng Dai,&nbsp;Yayi Wang,&nbsp;Yingbo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Influenza remains a global challenge, imposing a significant burden on society and the economy. Many influenza cases are asymptomatic, leading to greater uncertainty and the under-reporting of cases in influenza transmission and preventing authorities from taking effective control measures. In this study, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical approach to model and correct under-reporting of influenza cases in Hong Kong, incorporating a discrete-time stochastic, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (DT-SIRS) model that allows transmission rate to vary over time. The incidence of influenza exhibits seasonality. To examine the relationship between meteorological factors and seasonal influenza activity in subtropical areas, five meteorological factors are included in the model. The proposed model explores the effects of meteorological factors on transmission rates and disease detection covariates on under-reporting, and the inclusion of the DT-SIRS model enables more accurate inference regarding true disease counts. The results demonstrate that under-reporting rates of influenza cases vary significantly in different years and epidemic seasons. In conclusion, our method effectively captures the dynamic behavior of the disease, and we can accurately estimate under-reporting and provide new possibilities for early warning of influenza based on meteorological data and routine surveillance data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 946-959"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143935807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristics and risk factors for outcomes in patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae mono- and coinfections: A multicenter surveillance study in Wuhan, China, 2023","authors":"Banghua Chen ,&nbsp;Jie Pan ,&nbsp;Ying Peng ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yunan Wan ,&nbsp;Hongjie Wei ,&nbsp;Kangguo Li ,&nbsp;Wentao Song ,&nbsp;Yunkang Zhao ,&nbsp;Kang Fang ,&nbsp;Huiming Ye ,&nbsp;Jiali Cao ,&nbsp;Jia Rui ,&nbsp;Zeyu Zhao ,&nbsp;Tianmu Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div><em>Mycoplasma pneumoniae</em> (MP) is a key cause of community-acquired pneumonia, and coinfections lead to varied patient outcomes. A comprehensive understanding of the outcome characteristics and associated etiologies of coinfections in MP patients is lacking.</div></div><div><h3>Methods and results</h3><div>We analyzed 121,357 MP cases from 522,292,680 visits in Wuhan, China, in 2023 (the final year of the COVID-19 pandemic). Children aged 1–10 years had the highest incidence, whereas those over 60 years had elevated hospitalization, severe infection, and fatality rates. Coinfection patterns differed by age, with bacterial-viral-<em>Chlamydia pneumoniae</em> (<em>C. pneumoniae</em>) / other pathogens prevalent in infants, bacterial-viral pathogens prevalent in preschoolers, and viral-viral pathogens prevalent in school-aged children. Bacterial coinfections were most common in MP-infected patients, especially those who were hospitalized. Coinfection, especially with <em>C. pneumoniae</em>, <em>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</em> (<em>P. aeruginosa</em>)<em>, Haemophilus influenzae</em> (<em>H. influenzae</em>), and <em>Streptococcus pneumoniae</em> (<em>S. pneumoniae</em>), increased hospitalization rates. The most severe outcomes and deaths occurred in patients coinfected with <em>C. pneumoniae</em>-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), influenza A-parainfluenza virus (PIV) or adenovirus-PIV. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that male sex and adult age (particularly ≥40 years) were significantly associated with adverse outcomes in MP monoinfection. For coinfections, significantly higher hospitalization rates were reported among very young children (0–5 years) and adults aged ≥40 years, whereas adults presented an increased risk of severe disease. Coinfection outcomes were significantly associated with seasons of the year (winter, spring, and summer), specific age groups (3–5 years, 18–39 years, 40–50 years, and 60 years and over), gender (male), and longer onset-to-diagnosis periods. Middle-aged and elderly patients, coinfection, spring and summer, gender (male), and longer onset-to-diagnosis periods were significantly associated with increased hospitalization and serious illness risk. Coinfection, winter, older (adult) age, and gender (male) were significantly associated with an increased risk of death.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>Compared with adults, children with MP have a greater morbidity risk, whereas middle-aged and older adults face greater risks of hospitalization, serious illness, and death. Coinfection with other pathogens heightens hospitalization and death risks. These insights are crucial for etiological screening, diagnosing multiple pathogens, and preventing and treating infections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 989-1001"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Visual preferences for communicating modelling: a global analysis of COVID-19 policy and decision makers","authors":"Liza Hadley ,&nbsp;Caylyn Rich ,&nbsp;Alex Tasker ,&nbsp;Olivier Restif ,&nbsp;Sebastian Funk","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective communication of modelling results to policy and decision makers has been a longstanding challenge in times of crises. This communication takes many forms - visualisations, reports, presentations - and requires careful consideration to ensure accurate maintenance of the key scientific messages. Science-to-policy communication is further exacerbated when presenting fundamentally uncertain forms of science such as infectious disease modelling and other types of modelled evidence, something which has been understudied. Here we assess the communication and visualisation of infectious disease modelling results to national COVID-19 policy and decision makers in 13 different countries. We present a synthesis of recommendations on what aspects of visuals, graphs, and plots policymakers found to be most helpful in their COVID-19 response work. This work serves as a first evidence base for developing guidelines on the communication and translation of infectious disease modelling into policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 924-934"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143888193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of information dissemination and behavioural responses on epidemic dynamics: A multi-layer network analysis","authors":"Congjie Shi ,&nbsp;Silvio C. Ferreira ,&nbsp;Hugo P. Maia ,&nbsp;Seyed M. Moghadas","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Network models adeptly capture heterogeneities in individual interactions, making them well-suited for describing a wide range of real-world and virtual connections, including information diffusion, behavioural tendencies, and disease dynamic fluctuations. However, there is a notable methodological gap in existing studies examining the interplay between physical and virtual interactions and the impact of information dissemination and behavioural responses on disease propagation. We constructed a three-layer (information, cognition, and epidemic) network model to investigate the adoption of protective behaviours, such as wearing masks or practising social distancing, influenced by the diffusion and correction of misinformation. We examined five key events influencing the rate of information spread: (i) rumour transmission, (ii) information suppression, (iii) renewed interest in spreading misinformation, (iv) correction of misinformation, and (v) relapse to a stifler state after correction. We found that adopting information-based protection behaviours is more effective in mitigating disease spread than protection adoption induced by neighbourhood interactions. Specifically, our results show that warning and educating individuals to counter misinformation within the information network is a more effective strategy for curbing disease spread than suspending gossip spreaders from the network. Our study has practical implications for developing strategies to mitigate the impact of misinformation and enhance protective behavioural responses during disease outbreaks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 960-978"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143948951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of human mobility and weather conditions on Dengue mosquito abundance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong","authors":"Yufan Zheng ,&nbsp;Keqi Yue ,&nbsp;Eric W.M. Wong ,&nbsp;Hsiang-Yu Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>While <em>Aedes</em> mosquitoes, the Dengue vectors, are expected to expand due to climate change, the impact of human mobility on them is largely unclear. Changes in human mobility, such as staying at home during the pandemic, likely affect mosquito abundance.</div></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>We aimed to assess the influence of human mobility on the abundance and extensiveness of <em>Aedes albopictus</em>, taking account of the nonlinear lagged effects of weather, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>Google human mobility indices (including residential, parks, and workplaces) and weather conditions (total rainfall and mean temperature) along with <em>Aedes albopictus</em> abundance and extensiveness, monitored using Gravidtrap were collected between April 2020 and August 2022. Distributed lag non-linear models with mixed-effects models were used to explore their influence in three areas of Hong Kong.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Time spent at home (i.e., residential mobility) was negatively associated with mosquito abundance. The model projected that if residential mobility in 2022 was returned to the pre-pandemic level, the mosquito abundance would increase by an average of 80.49 % compared to actual observation. The relative risk (RR) of mosquito abundance was associated with low rainfall (&lt;50 mm) after 4.5 months, peaking at 1.73, compared with 300 mm. Heavy rainfall (&gt;500 mm) within 3 months was also associated with a peak RR of 1.41. Warm conditions (21–30 °C, compared with 20 °C) were associated with a higher RR of 1.47 after half a month.</div></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><div>Human mobility is a critical factor along with weather conditions in mosquito prediction, and a stay-at-home policy may be an effective intervention to control <em>Aedes albopictus</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 840-849"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143830098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of the SEIR mean-field model in dynamic networks under intervention","authors":"Jiangmin Li ,&nbsp;Zhen Jin ,&nbsp;Ming Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.03.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For emerging respiratory infectious diseases like COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation are crucial for controlling the spread. From the perspective of network transmission, non-pharmaceutical interventions like isolation alter the degree distribution and other topological structures of the network, thereby controlling the spread of the infectious disease. In this paper, we establish a SEIR mean-field propagation dynamics model for the synchronous evolution of dynamic networks caused by propagation and tracing isolation. We employ the reducing-dimension method to convert the mean-field model in networks into an equivalent and simpler low-dimension model, and then calculate the exact expression of the final size. In addition, we get the differential equations of the degree distribution over time in dynamic networks under tracing isolation and the relationships between the first and second moment of the dynamic network. While the degree of a node remains constant regardless of its state in many previous studies, this paper takes into account that the degree of each node changes over time whatever its state under the disease spread and intervention measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 850-874"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution into chaos – Implications of the trade-off between transmissibility and immune evasion","authors":"Golsa Sayyar ,&nbsp;Ábel Garab ,&nbsp;Gergely Röst","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting viral evolution presents a significant challenge and is a critical public health priority. In response to this challenge, we develop a novel model for viral evolution that considers a trade-off between immunity evasion and transmissibility. The model selects for a new strain with the highest invasion fitness, taking into account this trade-off. When the dominant strain of the pathogen is highly transmissible, evolution tends to favor immune evasion, whereas for less contagious strains the direction of evolution leads toward increasing transmissibility. Assuming a linear functional form of this trade-off, we can express the long-term evolutionary patterns following the emergence of subsequent strains by a non-linear difference equation. We provide sufficient criteria for when evolution converges, and successive strains exhibit similar transmissibility. We also identify scenarios characterized by a two-periodic pattern in upcoming strains, indicating a situation where a highly transmissible but not immune-evasive strain is replaced by a less transmissible but highly immune-evasive strain, and vice versa, creating a cyclic pattern. Finally, we show that under certain conditions, viral evolution becomes chaotic and thus future transmissibilites become unpredictable in the long run. Visualization via bifurcation diagrams elucidates our analytical findings, revealing complex dynamic behaviors that include the presence of multiple periodic solutions and extend to chaotic regimes. Our analysis provides valuable insights into the complexities of viral evolution in the light of the trade-off between immune evasion and transmissibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 909-923"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Invariant set theory for predicting potential failure of antibiotic cycling","authors":"Alejandro Anderson ,&nbsp;Matthew W. Kinahan ,&nbsp;Alejandro H. Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Klas Udekwu ,&nbsp;Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Collateral sensitivity, where resistance to one drug confers heightened sensitivity to another, offers a promising strategy for combating antimicrobial resistance, yet predicting resultant evolutionary dynamics remains a significant challenge. We propose here a mathematical model that integrates fitness trade-offs and adaptive landscapes to predict the evolution of collateral sensitivity pathways, providing insights into optimizing sequential drug therapies.</div><div>Our approach embeds collateral information into a network of switched systems, allowing us to abstract the effects of sequential antibiotic exposure on antimicrobial resistance. We analyze the system stability at disease-free equilibrium and employ set-control theory to tailor therapeutic windows. Consequently, we propose a computational algorithm to identify effective sequential therapies to counter antibiotic resistance. By leveraging our theory with data on collateral sensivity interactions, we predict scenarios that may prevent bacterial escape for chronic <em>Pseudomonas aeruginosa</em> infections.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 897-908"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143839190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic SIRS models on networks: mean and variance of infection","authors":"Tingting Chen ,&nbsp;Guirong Liu ,&nbsp;Zhen Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.03.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.03.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure, it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics. Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals, the spread of epidemics is more appropriately viewed as a Markov chain. Therefore, we establish stochastic SIRS models with vaccination on networks to study the mean and variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals for large-scale populations. Using van Kampen's system-size expansion, we derive a high-dimensional deterministic system which describes the mean behaviour and a Fokker-Planck equation which characterizes the variance around deterministic trajectories. Utilizing the qualitative analysis technique and Lyapunov function, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic system is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number <em>R</em>₀ &lt; 1; and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if <em>R</em>₀ &gt; 1. Through the analysis of the Fokker-Planck equation, we obtain the asymptotic expression for the variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals around the endemic equilibrium, which can be approximated by the elements of principal diagonal of the solution of the corresponding Lyapunov equation. Here, the solution of Lyapunov equation is expressed by vectorization operator of matrices and Kronecker product. Finally, numerical simulations illustrate that vaccination can reduce infections and increase fluctuations of the number of infected individuals and show that individuals with greater degree are more easily infected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 875-896"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}