Analysis of human papillomavirus model with vaccination and individual heterogeneity

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2025.08.001

Jing An , Wenhui Hao , Huifen Guo , Juping Zhang

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Abstract

The dynamic system of HPV transmission with age subgroups, sexual and nonsexual transmission is established based on HPV vaccination. Firstly, the transmission threshold R₀ of the system is given. Local asymptotically stabilization of disease-free equilibrium when R₀ < 1 is proved. It is proved that there is a positive equilibrium and disease persistence in the system when R₀ > 1. Secondly, parameters estimation of the system is carried out based on the data from Chinese STD surveillance sites using the least square method. Finally, optimal control theory is applied to the system, the existence of optimal control is proved, and Pontryagin maximum principle is utilized to find optimal control strategy, and the spread of human papillomavirus in different age groups is predicted. The results show that for different age groups, vaccination of 16–45 years old is more beneficial to HPV control than vaccination of 9–15 years old, and that for different control costs, low-cost control is more advantageous.

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具有疫苗接种和个体异质性的人乳头瘤病毒模型分析

基于HPV疫苗接种，建立了HPV传播年龄亚群、性传播和非性传播的动态系统。首先给出了系统的传输阈值R0。证明了R0 <； 1时无病平衡点的局部渐近镇定。证明了当R0 >； 1时，系统存在正平衡和疾病持续性。其次，基于全国性病监测点数据，采用最小二乘法对系统进行参数估计。最后，将最优控制理论应用于该系统，证明了最优控制的存在性，并利用庞特里亚金极大值原理寻找最优控制策略，预测了人乳头瘤病毒在不同年龄组中的传播。结果表明，对于不同年龄组，接种16-45岁HPV疫苗比接种9-15岁HPV疫苗更有利于控制HPV，并且对于不同的控制成本，低成本控制更有利。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics

CiteScore

17.00

自引率

3.40%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.