Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Spatial analysis of Dengue through the reproduction numbers relating to socioeconomic features: Case studies on two Brazilian urban centers","authors":"Ana T.C. Silva ,&nbsp;Rejane C. Dorn ,&nbsp;Lívia R. Tomás ,&nbsp;Leonardo B.L. Santos ,&nbsp;Lacita M. Skalinski ,&nbsp;Suani T.R. Pinho","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The study of the propagation of infectious diseases in urban centers finds a close connection with their population's social characteristics and behavior. This work performs a spatial analysis of dengue cases in urban centers based on the basic reproduction numbers, <em>R</em>₀, and incidence by planning areas (PAs), as well as their correlations with the Human Development Index (HDI) and the number of trips. We analyzed dengue epidemics in 2002 at two Brazilian urban centers, Belo Horizonte (BH) and Rio de Janeiro (RJ), using PAs as spatial units. Our results reveal heterogeneous spatial scenarios for both cities, with very weak correlations between <em>R</em>₀ and both the number of trips and the HDI; in BH, the values of <em>R</em>₀ show a less spatial heterogeneous pattern than in RJ. For BH, there are moderate correlations between incidence and both the number of trips and the HDI; meanwhile, they weakly correlate for RJ. Finally, the absence of strong correlations between the considered measures indicates that the transmission process should be treated considering the city as a whole.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001100/pdfft?md5=1e37d7799bb3eefa0b75db896ba3ec37&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001100-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139015295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of the fear factor on the dynamics of an eco-epidemiological system with standard incidence rate","authors":"Chunmei Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In order to protect endangered prey, ecologists suggest introducing parasites into predators which have achieved the expected goal in practice. Then how to explain the inherent mechanism and validate the effectiveness of this approach theoretically? In response to this question, we propose an eco-epidemiological system with the standard incidence rate and the anti-predator behavior in this paper, where the predator population is infected by parasites. We show the existence and local stability of equilibria for the system, and verify the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation. Theoretical and numerical results suggest that the fear effect reduces the density of the predator population but has no effect on the density of prey population. In addition, the cost of fear may not only break the stability of the equilibrium of the system, but also induce the equilibrium to change from unstable to stable. Based on the theoretical analysis, we confirm that introducing parasites into the predator population is an effective method to protect endangered prey.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001082/pdfft?md5=4179601ecdd73293ea1a98246982489f&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001082-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139015618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US","authors":"Alexandra Smirnova,&nbsp;Mona Baroonian","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In recent years, advanced regularization techniques have emerged as a powerful tool aimed at stable estimation of infectious disease parameters that are crucial for future projections, prevention, and control. Unlike other system parameters, i.e., incubation and recovery rates, the case reporting rate, Ψ, and the time-dependent effective reproduction number, <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, are directly influenced by a large number of factors making it impossible to pre-estimate these parameters in any meaningful way. In this study, we propose a novel iteratively-regularized trust-region optimization algorithm, combined with <em>S</em>_<em>u</em><em>S</em>_<em>v</em><em>I</em>_<em>u</em><em>I</em>_<em>v</em><em>RD</em> compartmental model, for stable reconstruction of Ψ and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> from reported epidemic data on vaccination percentages, incidence cases, and daily deaths. The innovative regularization procedure exploits (and takes full advantage of) a unique structure of the Jacobian and Hessian approximation for the nonlinear observation operator. The proposed inversion method is thoroughly tested with synthetic and real SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant data for different regions in the United States of America from July 9, 2021, to November 25, 2021. Our study shows that case reporting rate during the Delta wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the US is between 12% and 37%, with most states being in the range from 15% to 25%. This confirms earlier accounts on considerable under-reporting of COVID-19 cases due to the impact of ”silent spreaders” and the limitations of testing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001070/pdfft?md5=ca30bb7c138e73dcaf5f5da1bc858b7d&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001070-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138616736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SEIRS model for malaria transmission dynamics incorporating seasonality and awareness campaign","authors":"Francis Oketch Ochieng","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Malaria, a devastating disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite and transmitted through the bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant public health concern, claiming over 600,000 lives annually, predominantly among children. Novel tools, including the application of Wolbachia, are being developed to combat malaria-transmitting mosquitoes. This study presents a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) compartmental mathematical model to evaluate the impact of awareness-based control measures on malaria transmission dynamics, incorporating mosquito interactions and seasonality. Employing the next-generation matrix approach, we calculated a basic reproduction number (<em>R</em>₀) of 2.4537, indicating that without robust control measures, the disease will persist in the human population. The model equations were solved numerically using fourth and fifth-order Runge-Kutta methods. The model was fitted to malaria incidence data from Kenya spanning 2000 to 2021 using least squares curve fitting. The fitting algorithm yielded a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.6463 when comparing the actual data points to the simulated values of infectious human population (<em>I</em>_h). This finding indicates that the proposed mathematical model closely aligns with the recorded malaria incidence data. The optimal values of the model parameters were estimated from the fitting algorithm, and future malaria dynamics were projected for the next decade. The research findings suggest that social media-based awareness campaigns, coupled with specific optimization control measures and effective management methods, offer the most cost-effective approach to managing malaria.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001069/pdfft?md5=e32b6413a7578ed41ec385189f475d83&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001069-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138626531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling","authors":"M. Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mixing matrices are included in infectious disease models to reflect transmission opportunities between population strata. These matrices were originally constructed on the basis of theoretical considerations and most of the early work in this area originates from research on sexually transferred diseases in the 80s, in response to AIDS. Later work in the 90s populated these matrices on the basis of survey data gathered to capture transmission risks for respiratory diseases. We provide an overview of developments in the construction of matrices for capturing transmission opportunities in populations. Such transmission matrices are useful for epidemiologic modelling to capture within and between stratum transmission and can be informed from theoretical mixing assumptions, informed by empirical evidence gathered through investigation as well as generated on the basis of data. Links to summary measures and threshold conditions are also provided.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001057/pdfft?md5=d148717379ebdc2e453d384db9ce4fc4&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001057-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139100624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low- and middle-income countries: A case study of Thailand","authors":"Suparinthon Anupong ,&nbsp;Tanakorn Chantanasaro ,&nbsp;Chaiwat Wilasang ,&nbsp;Natcha C. Jitsuk ,&nbsp;Chayanin Sararat ,&nbsp;Kan Sornbundit ,&nbsp;Busara Pattanasiri ,&nbsp;Dhammika Leshan Wannigama ,&nbsp;Mohan Amarasiri ,&nbsp;Sudarat Chadsuthi ,&nbsp;Charin Modchang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Low- and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the pandemic. In this study, we utilized an age-structured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies, vaccine prioritization, and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand, an upper-middle-income country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the pandemic. The model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies, including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac (CV) vaccine was administered as the first dose, followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZ) vaccine as the second dose, under varying disease transmission dynamics. We found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination, regardless of disease transmission dynamics. However, combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous vaccination. Additionally, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is well-controlled. On the other hand, prioritizing workers aged 20–59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases, irrespective of the transmission dynamics. Lastly, despite the vaccine prioritization strategy, rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and deaths. These findings suggested that in low- and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited, obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higher-efficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000933/pdfft?md5=241b765db72be5a6ae997fb6add0dea8&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000933-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138465972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the impact of changing sexual behaviors with opposite-sex partners and STI testing among women and men ages 15–44 on STI diagnosis rates in the United States 2012–2019","authors":"Deven T. Hamilton ,&nbsp;David A. Katz ,&nbsp;Laura T. Haderxhanaj ,&nbsp;Casey E. Copen ,&nbsp;Ian H. Spicknall ,&nbsp;Matthew Hogben","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>To estimate the potential contributions of reported changes in frequency of penile-vaginal sex (PVS), condom use and STI screening to changes in gonorrhea and chlamydial diagnoses from 2012 to 2019.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>An agent-based model of the heterosexual population in the U.S. simulated the STI epidemics. Baseline was calibrated to 2012 diagnosis rates, testing, condom use, and frequency of PVS. Counterfactuals used behaviors from the 2017-2019 NSFG, and we evaluated changes in diagnosis and incidence rates in 2019.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Higher testing rates increased gonorrhea and chlamydia diagnosis by 14% and 13%, respectively, but did not reduce incidence. Declining frequency of PVS reduced the diagnosis rate for gonorrhea and chlamydia 6% and 3% respectively while reducing incidence by 10% and 9% respectively. Declining condom use had negligible impact on diagnosis and incidence.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Understanding how changing behavior drives STI incidence is essential to addressing the growing epidemics. Changes in testing and frequency of PVS likely contributed to some, but not all, of the changes in diagnoses. More research is needed to understand the context within which changing sexual behavior and testing are occurring.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000908/pdfft?md5=a5ff92c14810e82c68ae7aabe73c3de5&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000908-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136127752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A generalized ODE susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model with potentially periodic behavior","authors":"Scott Greenhalgh ,&nbsp;Anna Dumas","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Differential equation compartmental models are crucial tools for forecasting and analyzing disease trajectories. Among these models, those dealing with only susceptible and infectious individuals are particularly useful as they offer closed-form expressions for solutions, namely the logistic equation. However, the logistic equation has limited ability to describe disease trajectories since its solutions must converge monotonically to either the disease-free or endemic equilibrium, depending on the parameters. Unfortunately, many diseases exhibit periodic cycles, and thus, do not converge to equilibria. To address this limitation, we developed a generalized susceptible-infectious-susceptible compartmental model capable of accurately incorporating the duration of infection distribution and describing both periodic and non-periodic disease trajectories. We characterized how our model's parameters influence its behavior and applied the model to predict gonorrhea incidence in the US, using Akaike Information Criteria to inform on its merit relative to the traditional SIS model. The significance of our work lies in providing a novel susceptible-infected-susceptible model whose solutions can have closed-form expressions that may be periodic or non-periodic depending on the parameterization. Our work thus provides disease modelers with a straightforward way to investigate the potential periodic behavior of many diseases and thereby may aid ongoing efforts to prevent recurrent outbreaks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000970/pdfft?md5=b0585e97c2d83c48ef4429bf5dc45bb4&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000970-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138465975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of a two-group model for assessing the impacts of pre-exposure prophylaxis, testing and risk behaviour change on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM population","authors":"Queen Tollett ,&nbsp;Salman Safdar ,&nbsp;Abba B. Gumel","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although much progress has been made in reducing the public health burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), since its emergence in the 1980s (largely due to the large-scale use and availability of potent antiviral therapy, improved diagnostic and intervention and mitigation measures), HIV remains an important public health challenge globally, including in the United States. This study is based on the use of mathematical modeling approaches to assess the population-level impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), voluntary testing (to detect undetected HIV-infected individuals), and changes in human behavior (with respect to risk structure), on the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in an MSM (men-who-have sex-with-men) population. Specifically, a novel two-group mathematical model, which stratifies the total MSM population based on risk (low or high) of acquisition of HIV infection, is formulated. The model undergoes a PrEP-induced backward bifurcation when the <em>control reproduction number</em> of the model is less than one if the efficacy of PrEP to prevent a high-risk susceptible MSM individual from acquiring HIV infection is not perfect (the consequence of which is that, while necessary, having the reproduction number of the model less than one is no longer sufficient for the elimination of the disease in the MSM population). For the case where the efficacy of PrEP is perfect, this study shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the two-group model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated control reproduction number of the model is less than one. Global sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the main parameters of the model that have the highest influence on the value of the control reproduction number of the model (thereby, having the highest influence on the disease burden in the MSM population). Numerical simulations of the model, using a plausible range of parameter values, show that if half of the MSM population considered adhere strictly to the specified PrEP regimen (while other interventions are maintained at their baseline values), a reduction of about 22% of the new yearly HIV cases recorded at the peak of the disease could be averted (compared to the <em>worst-case scenario</em> where PrEP-based intervention is not implemented in the MSM population). The yearly reduction at the peak increases to about 50% if the PrEP coverage in the MSM population increases to 80%. This study showed, based on the parameter values used in the simulations, that the prospects of elimination of HIV/AIDS in the MSM community are promising if high-risk susceptible individuals are no more than 15% more likely to acquire HIV infection, in comparison to their low-risk counterparts. Furthermore, these prospects are significantly improved if undetected HIV-infected individuals are detected within an optimal period of time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000945/pdfft?md5=6153edbe19aceff93efcb5296c5f0d56&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000945-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138839751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023","authors":"Jia-Lin Wang ,&nbsp;Xin-Long Xiao ,&nbsp;Fen-Fen Zhang ,&nbsp;Xin Pei ,&nbsp;Ming-Tao Li ,&nbsp;Ju-Ping Zhang ,&nbsp;Juan Zhang ,&nbsp;Gui-Quan Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2023.11.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, with the method of epidemic dynamics, we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in China, and estimate the excess population deaths caused by COVID-19. Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 among individuals, a dynamic model with heterogeneous contacts is established to describe the change of control measures and the population's social behavior in Taiyuan city. The model is verified and simulated by basing on reported case data from November 8th to December 5th, 2022 in Taiyuan city and the statistical data of the questionnaire survey from December 1st to 23rd, 2022 in Neijiang city. Combining with reported numbers of permanent residents and deaths from 2017 to 2021 in Taiyuan city, we apply the dynamic model to estimate theoretical population of 2022 under the assumption that there is no effect of COVID-19. In addition, we carry out sensitivity analysis to determine the propagation character of the Omicron strain and the effect of the control measures. As a result of the study, it is concluded that after adjusting the epidemic policy on December 6th, 2022, three peaks of infection in Taiyuan are estimated to be from December 22nd to 31st, 2022, from May 10th to June 1st, 2023, and from September 5th to October 13th, 2023, and the corresponding daily peaks of new cases can reach 400 000, 44 000 and 22 000, respectively. By the end of 2022, excess deaths can range from 887 to 4887, and excess mortality rate can range from 3.06% to 14.82%. The threshold of the infectivity of the COVID-19 variant is estimated 0.0353, that is if the strain infectivity is above it, the epidemic cannot be control with the previous normalization measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000957/pdfft?md5=fb92d43f88331be948e3a582b21b3921&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723000957-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138577511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}