应用类型和目标繁殖数评价日本各县对疾病传播的影响

IF 2.5 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2025.09.003

Toshikazu Kuniya

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究将日本2019-2023年7月、8月和9月的人口流动数据应用于多群流行病模型，计算日本各县的人口流动类型和目标再生产数量。将这些值作为一种网络中心性度量，讨论了哪些县对日本的疾病传播有影响。结果表明，北海道、埼玉、千叶、东京、神奈川、爱知县、京都、大阪、兵库县和福冈等10个县的类型繁殖数较高。特别是，通过计算目标繁殖数，我们发现东京和京都可能对疾病传播影响最大，关东和关西地区之间的人口流动可能是日本全国流行的关键因素。

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Application of the type and target reproduction numbers to the evaluation of the influence of each prefecture in Japan on the disease spread

In this study, by applying population mobility data in July, August and September of 2019–2023 in Japan to a multigroup epidemic model, we calculate the type and target reproduction numbers of each prefecture in Japan. Regarding these values as a kind of network centrality measure, we discuss which prefectures are influential on the disease spread in Japan. We show that the values of the type reproduction number are relatively high in 10 prefectures consisting of Hokkaido, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka. In particular, by calculating the target reproduction number, we show that Tokyo and Kyoto could be the most influential on the disease spread, and the population mobility between the Kanto and Kansai regions could be the key factor for the nationwide epidemic in Japan.

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来源期刊

Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics

CiteScore

17.00

自引率

3.40%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.