Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"A spatiotemporal transmission simulator for respiratory infectious diseases and its application to COVID-19","authors":"Tao Shi ,&nbsp;Jiaxuan Huan ,&nbsp;Zuo Zhang ,&nbsp;Liqun Fang ,&nbsp;Yong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present study introduces a transmission dynamic simulator for respiratory infectious diseases by incorporating human movement data into a spatiotemporal transmission model. The model spatially divides areas into multiple patches according to administrative regions. The transmission of respiratory pathogens within each patch is depicted using an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) compartmental framework, which incorporates quarantine and isolation measures. The risk of transmission between patches is determined by a gravity-constrained model that considers passenger volume and the spatial distance between patches. We simulate changes in intervention policies and detection methods by adjusting quarantine and detection rates at different stages of the epidemic, thereby capturing spatial variations in pathogen transmission through altering the transmission rate. Ultimately, we apply this simulator to accurately replicate the spatiotemporal dynamics observed during the initial COVID-19 outbreak across all 31 provinces in the mainland of China, successfully capturing the temporal variations in both case numbers and affected provinces. Additionally, it demonstrates a remarkable level of accuracy in predicting the outbreak of epidemic in each province.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1322-1333"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Control of Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks and Rocky Mountain spotted fever informed by an in silico tool","authors":"Francesca Rubino ,&nbsp;Patrick Foley ,&nbsp;Janet Foley","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explored a compartment “susceptible-infected-recovered” model to prioritize and test the effectiveness of dog- and tick-based interventions against Rocky Mountain spotted fever and its tick vector <em>Rhipicephalus sanguineus</em> s.l. In the face of increasingly urban epidemics of RMSF with high case fatality, particularly targeting marginalized communities, wrap-around campaigns (comprising all or some of canine culling, fertility control, and restraint to property; on-dog and environmental acaricide; and education and awareness programs for public health workers and at-risk residents) are unsustainably resource-intensive and may lack efficacy in managing the very hard to control tick. Our model allows us to strategize interventions and develop an optimized campaign against RMSF, using parameters associated with the epidemic in Ensenada, Baja California as an example. Combining usage of acaricides on dogs and the environment optimized success as measured by up to 10 years of no new canine cases, a proxy for human cases, as well as reduced tick burden. Success was greater when the campaign was begun in winter or spring and achieved at least 60 % coverage. This combination was considerably more successful than either dog or environmental acaricide alone, culling of dogs which was only successful with 100 % of dogs removed, and spay/neuter campaigns which did not reduce tick burdens. However, spay/neuter of outside dogs as an adjunct to the acaricide campaign helped stabilize the canine population and encouraged herd immunity. Although parameterized for Ensenada, the model can easily be run for other communities where data on canine tick burden and tick life history traits are available, in order to tailor intervention details such as optimal timing, coverage, and re-application frequency even when public health resources are limited.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1179-1189"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144519195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ring vaccination and vector control as control strategies for potential yellow fever outbreak in an Asian city","authors":"Guo Jing Yang ,&nbsp;Haolong Song ,&nbsp;Jue Tao Lim ,&nbsp;A. Janhavi ,&nbsp;Gregory Gan ,&nbsp;Guan Tong ,&nbsp;Pei Ma ,&nbsp;Nigel Lim Wei Han ,&nbsp;Muhammad Hafiz Bin Mohd Aziz ,&nbsp;Borame L. Dickens","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>Yellow Fever (YF) importation remains an active risk to Southeast Asia. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of vector control and ring vaccination as containment strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>We modelled a YF outbreak in Singapore over 1 year using a metapopulation vector-host spatial model to explore the impact of a potential epidemic and intervention effectiveness. 30 different scenarios were examined by varying the vector to human ratio <em>m</em> ([1, 3, 6]), vaccination coverage ([10 %, 50 %, 90 %]) and delay in vaccine rollout ([7, 14, 30 days]), including three non-vaccination scenarios with the vector-to-human ratio m ([1, 3, 6]).</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Vector control has a significant protective effect with an 89 % reduction in the cumulative number of exposed cases at Day 365 when lowering <em>m</em> from 6 to 1 in the baseline scenario without ring vaccination. Vaccination coverage levels of 90 %, 50 %, and 10 % reduce the cumulative number of exposed cases by 88 %, 56 %, and 12 %, respectively, compared to baseline, when fixing m = 3 and a 7-day rollout delay. A greater number of severe infections and deaths can be mitigated by decreasing the ratio m compared to ring vaccination strategies. The marginal gains in averting the number of infections and deaths are most significant when m is decreased, followed by increased vaccination coverage and reduced intervention delay as R₀ is proportional to <span><math><mrow><msqrt><mi>m</mi></msqrt></mrow></math></span>. This highlights the central role of vector control. Our findings suggested that ring vaccination is effective under lower mosquito-to-human ratios up to 1-week post-detection, with vaccination coverage of at least 50 %. Under these settings, vaccine doses equal to 25 % of the total population are needed to contain the initial outbreak, allowing time to monitor its progress and restock the supply. After that, further interventions where YF has not yet been declared endemic.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>Our findings suggested that ring vaccination is effective under lower mosquito-to-human ratios up to 1-week post-detection, with vaccination coverage of at least 50 %. After that, further interventions are required to bring the effective reproduction number <em>R</em>_<em>eff</em> under 1, highlighting the need for rapid response and containment, preparation in the stockpiling of vaccines, and continual suppression of mosquito vector populations when faced with the risk of YF importation and outbreak.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1398-1417"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the impact of vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics under stratified populations and seasonality","authors":"Leul Mekonnen Anteneh,&nbsp;Sètondji Diane Zanvo,&nbsp;Kassifou Traore,&nbsp;Romain Glèlè Kakaï","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Different types of oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) are currently available in the global market to combat cholera epidemic. In most of developing countries, there is comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this study, we develop a non-linear deterministic mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of cholera in the presence of vaccination under stratified population, and taking into account the seasonality of the disease dynamic. The model stratifies the total population into two strata based on level of exposure or individuals risk status. We use reported cholera data to estimate the values of model parameters using the least square method together with the <em>fminsearch</em> function in the MATLAB optimization toolbox. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the impact of vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics. Numerical results show that the reproduction numbers were 3.35 and 2.6 in more and less exposed population, respectively, with an average value of the whole population equal to 2.98. Specifically, our findings indicate that at least 70 % of the most exposed population needs to be vaccinated to halt transmission within that group, while a minimum of 62 % of the less exposed population must be vaccinated to halt transmission in this population. We further observe that the vaccination rate significantly impact the amplitude of the epidemic curves. Our findings suggest that vaccination of susceptible population stratified with a certain priority (e.g., level of exposure or individual's risk status) against the disease can reduce the transmission of cholera, potentially slowing the spread of the bacteria in a population.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1138-1152"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144501118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of spontaneous clearance on fractional analysis of HBV","authors":"O.Y. Oludoun ,&nbsp;O. Abiodun ,&nbsp;B. Gbadamosi ,&nbsp;J.K. Oladejo ,&nbsp;E.I. Akinola ,&nbsp;O.N. Emuoyibofarhe ,&nbsp;O. Adebimpe","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions.The present study proposes a mathematical model of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) epidemics using fractional calculus, with a special emphasis on the influence of spontaneous clearance across diverse population groups. Using the Atangana-Baleanu derivative, the model accounts for the complications of vertical and horizontal transmission, therapy, immunisation, and spontaneous clearance. Numerical simulations with different fractional orders demonstrate how spontaneous clearance affects the dynamics of susceptible, chronic, treated, and recovered populations. The findings indicate that in vulnerable populations, increasing spontaneous clearance reduces vulnerability because people either clear the illness naturally or gain resistance.However, in chronic populations, spontaneous clearance is insufficient for complete recovery without treatment. The combination of therapy and spontaneous clearance improves the treated population, demonstrating the beneficial effects of both medical intervention and natural immunity. Furthermore, increased spontaneous clearance boosts the restored population, demonstrating the immune system's ability to eliminate the virus over time. The fractional-order framework captures the memory effect of illness development, revealing how healing is time-dependent and how immune responses have a long-term impact. This study emphasises the need of combining spontaneous clearance with medical therapies to improve HBV management and public health consequences. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a persistent global health concern, with recent research advancing our understanding of its transmission dynamics and potential interventions. This study presents a fractional mathematical model of HBV infection, employing the Atangana-Baleanu derivative with Mittag-Leffler kernels to capture memory-dependent and nonlocal transmission processes. The model integrates vertical and horizontal transmission pathways, treatment strategies, immunization efforts, and spontaneous clearance, providing a nuanced perspective compared to classical models. Stability conditions are analyzed through fixed-point theory, revealing the global stability of both disease-free and endemic states under specific values of the basic reproduction number <em>R</em>₀. Numerical simulations demonstrate the model's effectiveness in capturing the complex dynamics of HBV, with fractional-order parameters enhancing prediction accuracy. This approach offers valuable insights into optimizing public health interventions and treatment strategies for managing HBV infections effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1019-1036"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144195352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Contributions of the elderly to the transmission of HIV/AIDS in China","authors":"Shanshan Feng ,&nbsp;Wan-Ting Cheng ,&nbsp;Xing Li,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases shows an upward trend in China, particularly among the elderly, exerting severe effects on public health and social economy. This paper proposes an HIV/AIDS model incorporating sexual transmission and age structure to study the influence of the elderly on HIV/AIDS spread. Theoretically, the explicit expression for the basic reproduction number is obtained, the globally asymptotically stability of disease-free equilibrium and existence and uniqueness of boundary equilibrium are proved. Numerically, we verify the theoretical results. Based on HIV/AIDS data in Sichuan Province, China, four key parameters of the model are estimated. According to the estimated parameters, we find that homosexual transmission plays an important role in newly HIV/AIDS cases among the elderly in recent years. Sensitivity analysis also shows that homosexual transmission in the elderly has the greatest effect on the basic reproduction number. This study not only contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the dynamical spread process of HIV/AIDS but also provides valuable experience for other sexually transmitted diseases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1488-1506"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144828164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reinforcement learning-based event-driven optimal prevention control strategy for citrus huanglongbing model","authors":"Yongwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaoling Deng ,&nbsp;Yubin Lan","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB) is an infectious disease transmitted by Asian citrus psyllids (ACP), which leads to serious economic losses in the citrus industry. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the prevention and control strategy of citrus HLB. In this paper, the dynamics of HLB propagation between citrus trees and ACP is considered. By applying reinforcement learning (RL) technique, an event-driven optimal prevention control (EDOPC) strategy is developed to ensure the HLB propagation model state converges to a disease-free equilibrium point. Initially, in order to address the challenge of obtaining precise models in practice, a radial basis function-based event-driven observer is built by adopting system input-output data to obtain the approximate HLB propagation model. Subsequently, an EDOPC strategy is devised, which updates only at triggering times to reduce management costs. Additionally, a single critic network structure is constructed to obtain the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, thereby deriving an approximate EDOPC strategy. To align with real-world scenarios, the weights of the observer and the critic network are updated only at event occurrence times. Moreover, by employing the Lyapunov stability principle, the critic network weight error is proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded under the novel event-driven weight adjusting law. Finally, simulation experiments confirm the efficacy of the present RL-based EDOPC strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1334-1354"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"State-space modelling for infectious disease surveillance data: Stochastic simulation techniques and structural change detection","authors":"Christopher D. Prashad","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present an exploration of advanced stochastic simulation techniques for state-space models, with a specific focus on their applications in infectious disease modelling. Utilizing COVID-19 surveillance data from the province of Ontario, Canada, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods to detect structural changes and pre-dict future trends in case counts. Our approach begins with the application of a Kalman smoothing technique, integrated with MCMC for state sampling within local level and seasonal models, alongside Bayesian inference for non-linear dynamic regression models. We then assess the effectiveness of various priors, including normal, Student's t, Laplace, and horseshoe distributions, in capturing abrupt changes within the data using a Rao-Blackwellized par-ticle filter. Our findings highlight the superior performance of the horseshoe prior in identifying change points and adapting to complex data structures, offering valuable insights for real-time monitoring and forecasting in public health. This study emphasizes the efficacy of state-space models, particu-larly when enhanced with sophisticated prior distributions, in providing a nuanced understanding of infectious disease transmission.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1507-1532"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144879023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model","authors":"Jianping Huang ,&nbsp;Wei Yan ,&nbsp;Han Li ,&nbsp;Shujuan Hu ,&nbsp;Zihan Hao ,&nbsp;Licheng Li ,&nbsp;Xinbo Lian ,&nbsp;Danfeng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.06.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Epidemic prediction is a crucial foundation of disease control policy-making. Owing to the high population connectivity of current epidemics, it is essential to capture the spatial transmission of infectious diseases. However, most models currently used in epidemic prediction are single-point models, and they can only capture the time-dynamic increase of cases in limited areas. In this study, we develop a two-dimension epidemic prediction model by introducing diffusion processes, which take spatial transmission epidemics into account. We utilize mathematical theorems to prove a well-posed solution of the model. In addition, we also consider various influencing factors that affect the spread of epidemics, and introduce multiple parameterization schemes. Results suggest that this two-dimension model provides more precise predict the spatial and temporal distribution of confirmed cases. The regional average prediction score of COVID-19 in July 2022 in Lanzhou is 76.5 % and COVID-19 from May 1st to May 31st, 2023 in China is 70.7 %,respectively. Our results offer a scientific foundation for further study on the prediction of spatial epidemics, which contributes to an in-depth understanding of epidemic dynamics and provides valuable reference for the formulation of public health strategies and policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1190-1207"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stage specific immune responses to schistosomes may explain conflicting results in malaria-schistosome coinfection studies","authors":"Sarah Rollason ,&nbsp;Eleanor Riley ,&nbsp;Joanne Lello","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Malaria and schistosomiasis are two of the most clinically important human parasitic diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality, collectively causing approximately 800,000 deaths annually. Coinfection with their causative parasites, <em>Plasmodium</em> spp. and <em>Schistosoma</em> spp., is common, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. These parasites may interact with each other via their effects on the host immune system, but studies to date report conflicting consequences of such interactions, some suggesting that schistosomes are associated with reduced parasitaemia in malaria infection while others report increased parasitaemia. Schistosomes stimulate different immune components in early versus late infection. Using agent-based modelling we explore whether stage of infection could be a factor explaining the conflicting coinfection outcomes. Effects of schistosomes on blood stage malaria were modelled by adjusting the immune components within the model according to the response provoked by each schistosome stage. We find the dynamics of malaria infections are greatly influenced by the stage of schistosomes, with acute and chronic schistosome infections having opposite effects on both peak infected erythrocyte counts and duration. Our findings offer a possible explanation for the apparent contradictions between studies and highlight the importance of considering the stage of schistosome infection when exploring the relationship between these two parasites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 4","pages":"Pages 1003-1018"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}