Infectious Disease Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the impact of disease incidence and immunization on the resilience of complex networks during epidemics","authors":"M.D. Shahidul Islam ,&nbsp;Mohammad Sharif Ullah ,&nbsp;K.M. Ariful Kabir","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Disease severity through an immunized population ensconced on a physical network topology is a key technique for preventing epidemic spreading. Its influence can be quantified by adjusting the common (basic) methodology for analyzing the percolation and connectivity of contact networks. Stochastic spreading properties are difficult to express, and physical networks significantly influence them. Visualizing physical networks is crucial for studying and intervening in disease transmission. The multi-agent simulation method is useful for measuring randomness, and this study explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic transmission in various homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. This work thoroughly explores stochastic characteristics of epidemic propagation in homogeneous and heterogeneous networks through extensive theoretical analysis (positivity and boundedness of solutions, disease-free equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium point, stability analysis) and multi-agent simulation approach using the Gilespie algorithm. Results show that Ring and Lattice networks have small stochastic variations in the ultimate epidemic size, while BA-SF networks have disease transmission starting before the threshold value. The theoretical and deterministic aftermaths strongly agree with multi-agent simulations (MAS) and could shed light on various multi-dynamic spreading process applications. The study also proposes a novel concept of void nodes, Empty nodes and disease severity, which reduces the incidence of contagious diseases through immunization and topologies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 1-27"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804272400099X/pdfft?md5=a5dd5e2f7b08220198d81f54b35744c6&pid=1-s2.0-S246804272400099X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142232728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden","authors":"Laura Di Domenico ,&nbsp;Yair Goldberg ,&nbsp;Vittoria Colizza","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started to face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns in a still highly uncertain seasonal behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mathematical models assessing past booster campaigns and integrating knowledge on waning of immunity can help better inform current and future vaccination programs. Focusing on the first booster campaign in the 2021/2022 winter in France, we used a multi-strain age-stratified transmission model to assess the effectiveness of the observed booster vaccination in controlling the succession of Delta, Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves. We explored counterfactual scenarios altering the eligibility criteria and inter-dose delay. Our study showed that the success of the immunization program in curtailing the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves was largely dependent on the inclusion of adults among the eligible groups, and was highly sensitive to the inter-dose delay, which was changed over time. Shortening or prolonging this delay, even by only one month, would have required substantial social distancing interventions to curtail the hospitalization peak. Also, the time window for adjusting the delay was very short. Our findings highlight the importance of readiness and adaptation in the formulation of routine booster campaign in the current level of epidemiological uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 150-162"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142318995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the influencing factors of scrub typhus in Gannan region, China, based on spatial regression modelling and geographical detector","authors":"Kailun Pan ,&nbsp;Fen Lin ,&nbsp;Hua Xue ,&nbsp;Qingfeng Cai ,&nbsp;Renfa Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Scrub typhus is a significant public health issue with a wide distribution and is influenced by various determinants. However, in order to effectively eradicate scrub typhus, it is crucial to identify the specific factors that contribute to its incidence at a detailed level. Therefore, the objective of our study is to identify these influencing factors, examine the spatial variations in incidence, and analyze the interplay of two factors on scrub typhus incidence, so as to provide valuable experience for the prevention and treatment of scrub typhus in Gannan and to alleviate the economic burden of the local population.This study employed spatial autocorrelation analyses to examine the dependent variable and ordinary least squares model residuals. Additionally, spatial regression modelling and geographical detector were used to analyze the factors influencing the annual mean 14-year incidence of scrub typhus in the streets/townships of Gannan region from 2008 to 2021. The results of spatial¹ autocorrelation analyses indicated the presence of spatial correlation. Among the global spatial regression models, the spatial lag model was found to be the best fitting model (log likelihood ratio = −319.3029, AIC = 666.6059). The results from the SLM analysis indicated that DEM, mean temperature, and mean wind speed were the primary factors influencing the occurrence of scrub typhus. For the local spatial regression models, the multiscale geographically weighted regression was determined to be the best fitting model (adjusted R² = 0.443, AICc = 726.489). Further analysis using the MGWR model revealed that DEM had a greater impact in Xinfeng and Longnan, while the southern region was found to be more susceptible to scrub typhus due to mean wind speed. The geographical detector results revealed that the incidence of scrub typhus was primarily influenced by annual average normalized difference vegetation index. Additionally, the interaction between GDP and the percentage of grassland area had a significant impact on the incidence of scrub typhus (q = 0.357). This study illustrated the individual and interactive effects of natural environmental factors and socio-economic factors on the incidence of scrub typhus; and elucidated the specific factors affecting the incidence of scrub typhus in various streets/townships. The findings of this study can be used to develop effective interventions for the prevention and control of scrub typhus.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 28-39"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724001027/pdfft?md5=d441b9c720e9eb2505e1b3abd5352512&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724001027-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A data science pipeline applied to Australia's 2022 COVID-19 Omicron waves","authors":"James M. Trauer ,&nbsp;Angus E. Hughes ,&nbsp;David S. Shipman ,&nbsp;Michael T. Meehan ,&nbsp;Alec S. Henderson ,&nbsp;Emma S. McBryde ,&nbsp;Romain Ragonnet","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The field of software engineering is advancing at astonishing speed, with packages now available to support many stages of data science pipelines. These packages can support infectious disease modelling to be more robust, efficient and transparent, which has been particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a package for the construction of infectious disease models, integrated it with several open-source libraries and applied this composite pipeline to multiple data sources that provided insights into Australia's 2022 COVID-19 epidemic. We aimed to identify the key processes relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics and thereby develop a model that could quantify relevant epidemiological parameters.</p><p>The pipeline's advantages include markedly increased speed, an expressive application programming interface, the transparency of open-source development, easy access to a broad range of calibration and optimisation tools and consideration of the full workflow from input manipulation through to algorithmic generation of the publication materials. Extending the base model to include mobility effects slightly improved model fit to data, with this approach selected as the model configuration for further epidemiological inference. Under our assumption of widespread immunity against severe outcomes from recent vaccination, incorporating an additional effect of the main vaccination programs rolled out during 2022 on transmission did not further improve model fit. Our simulations suggested that one in every two to six COVID-19 episodes were detected, subsequently emerging Omicron subvariants escaped 30–60% of recently acquired natural immunity and that natural immunity lasted only one to eight months on average. We documented our analyses algorithmically and present our methods in conjunction with interactive online code notebooks and plots.</p><p>We demonstrate the feasibility of integrating a flexible domain-specific syntax library with state-of-the-art packages in high performance computing, calibration, optimisation and visualisation to create an end-to-end pipeline for infectious disease modelling. We used the resulting platform to demonstrate key epidemiological characteristics of the transition from the emergency to the endemic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 99-109"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000988/pdfft?md5=4f608618181fc13e1498c89ce78afb35&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000988-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Regional variations in HIV diagnosis in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Hiroshi Nishiura ,&nbsp;Seiko Fujiwara ,&nbsp;Akifumi Imamura ,&nbsp;Takuma Shirasaka","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The number of people undergoing voluntary HIV testing has abruptly decreased since 2020. The geographical heterogeneity of HIV infection and the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis of HIV at regional level are important to understand. This study aimed to estimate the HIV incidence by geographical region and understand how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced diagnosis of HIV.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We used an extended back-calculation method to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of HIV/AIDS by geographical region. We used eight regions: Tokyo, the capital of Japan, Hokkaido plus Tohoku, Kanto plus Koshinetsu (excluding Tokyo), Hokuriku, Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku plus Shikoku, and Kyushu plus Okinawa. Four different epidemiological measurements were evaluated: (i) estimated HIV incidence, (ii) estimated rate of diagnosis, (iii) number of undiagnosed HIV infections, and (iv) proportion of HIV infections that had been diagnosed.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The incidence of HIV/AIDS during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022 increased in all regions except Kanto/Koshinetsu (51.3 cases/year), Tokyo (183.9 cases/year), Hokuriku (1.0 cases/year), and Tokai (43.1 cases/year). The proportion of HIV infections that had been diagnosed only exceeded 90% in Tokyo (91.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 90.6, 93.3), Kanto/Koshinetsu (91.0%, 95% CI: 87.3, 97.8), and Kinki (92.5%, 95% CI: 90.4, 95.9). The proportion of infections that had been diagnosed was estimated at 83.3% (95% CI: 75.1, 98.7) in Chugoku/Shikoku and 80.5% (95% CI: 73.9, 91.0) in Kyusyu/Okinawa.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>In urban regions with major metropolitan cities, including Tokyo, Kinki, and Kanto/Koshinetsu, the number of undiagnosed HIV infections is substantial. However, the proportion of undiagnosed infections was estimated to be smaller than in other regions. The diagnosed proportion was the lowest in Kyusyu/Okinawa (80.5%), followed by Chugoku/Shikoku and Hokkaido/Tohoku. The level of diagnosis in those regional prefectures may have been more influenced and damaged by the COVID-19 pandemic than in urban settings.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 40-49"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000976/pdfft?md5=b9af1940426bec942861e7c96d08483b&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000976-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity","authors":"Xiaowei Chen ,&nbsp;Fangfang Tao ,&nbsp;Yinzi Chen ,&nbsp;Jian Cheng ,&nbsp;Ying Zhou ,&nbsp;Xiling Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>An influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer influenza peak in tropics/subtropics. Recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) had a U-shape relationship with influenza survival and transmission across climate zones, indicating that a unified influenza forecasting system could be established for China with various climate conditions.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Our study has generated weekly influenza forecasts by season and type/subtype in northern and southern China from 2011 to 2021, using a forecasting system combining an AH-driven susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Model performance was assessed by sensitivity and specificity in predicting epidemics, and by accuracies in predicting peak timing and magnitude.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Our forecast system can generally well predict seasonal influenza epidemics (mean sensitivity&gt;87.5%; mean specificity &gt;80%). The average forecast accuracies were 82% and 60% for peak timing and magnitude at 3–6 weeks ahead for northern China, higher than those of 42% and 20% for southern China. The accuracy was generally better when the forecast was made closer to the actual peak time.</p></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><p>The established AH-driven forecasting system can generally well predict the occurrence of seasonal influenza epidemics in China.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"10 1","pages":"Pages 50-59"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000964/pdfft?md5=4f804672ca7b1feb44bfa5114ed4f9af&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000964-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142233053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Epidemiological impact of revoking mask-wearing recommendation on COVID-19 transmission in Tokyo, Japan","authors":"Mayu Nagata,&nbsp;Yuta Okada,&nbsp;Hiroshi Nishiura","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite the global implementation of COVID-19 mitigation measures, the disease continues to maintain transmission. Although mask wearing became one of the key measures for preventing the transmission of COVID-19 early in the pandemic period, many countries have relaxed the mandatory or recommended wearing of masks. The objective of the present study was to estimate the epidemiological impact of removing the mask-wearing recommendation in Japan. We developed a model to assess the consequences of declining mask-wearing coverage after the government revoked its recommendation in February 2023. The declining mask-wearing coverage was estimated using serial cross-sectional data, and a mathematical model was devised to determine the age-specific incidence of COVID-19 using the observed case count in Tokyo from week of October 3, 2022 to October 30, 2023. We explored model-based counterfactual scenarios to measure hypothetical situations in which the mask-wearing coverage decreases or increases relative to the observed coverage. The results show that mask-wearing coverage declined from 97% to 69% by the week of October 30, 2023, and that if the mask-wearing recommendation had continued, 427 lives could have been saved in Tokyo. If the mask-wearing coverage had declined to 25% of the observed level, the model suggests there might have been 1587 additional deaths. Thus, revoking the mask-wearing recommendation had a substantial epidemiological impact. In future pandemics, our proposed approach could provide a real-time quantification of the effects of relaxing countermeasures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"9 4","pages":"Pages 1289-1300"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000952/pdfft?md5=60938c5af8cd57b8dded7d703d3c00b8&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000952-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142011229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen","authors":"Ruixin Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongfei Mi ,&nbsp;Tingjuan He ,&nbsp;Shuhao Ren ,&nbsp;Renyan Zhang ,&nbsp;Liansheng Xu ,&nbsp;Mingzhai Wang ,&nbsp;Chenghao Su","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.08.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30–39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"9 4","pages":"Pages 1276-1288"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000940/pdfft?md5=f79219fe9ae69217fa42d901c3f32cfc&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000940-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141952563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effect of vaccinations and school restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 in different age groups in Germany","authors":"Christiane Dings ,&nbsp;Dominik Selzer ,&nbsp;Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ,&nbsp;Eva Möhler ,&nbsp;Markus Wenning ,&nbsp;Thomas Gehrke ,&nbsp;Ulf Richter ,&nbsp;Alexandra Nonnenmacher ,&nbsp;Folke Brinkmann ,&nbsp;Tobias Rothoeft ,&nbsp;Michael Zemlin ,&nbsp;Thomas Lücke ,&nbsp;Thorsten Lehr","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, various non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted to control virus transmission, including school closures. Subsequently, the introduction of vaccines mitigated not only disease severity but also the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study leveraged an adapted SIR model and non-linear mixed-effects modeling to quantify the impact of remote learning, school holidays, the emergence of Variants of Concern (VOCs), and the role of vaccinations in controlling SARS-CoV-2 spread across 16 German federal states with an age-stratified approach. Findings highlight a significant inverse correlation (Spearman's ρ = −0.92, p &lt; 0.001) between vaccination rates and peak incidence rates across all age groups. Model-parameter estimation using the observed number of cases stratified by federal state and age allowed to assess the effects of school closure and holidays, considering adjustments for vaccinations and spread of VOCs over time. Here, modeling revealed significant (p &lt; 0.001) differences in the virus's spread among pre-school children (0–4), children (5–11), adolescents (12–17), adults (18–59), and the elderly (60+). The transition to remote learning emerged as a critical measure in significantly reducing infection rates among children and adolescents (p &lt; 0.001), whereas an increased infection risk was noted among the elderly during these periods, suggesting a shift in infection networks due to altered caregiving roles. Conversely, during school holiday periods, infection rates among adolescents mirrored those observed when schools were open. Simulation exercises based on the model provided evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations might serve a dual purpose: they protect the vaccinated individuals and contribute to the broader community's safety.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"9 4","pages":"Pages 1250-1264"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000939/pdfft?md5=4f636257ab7a73588a561dd802ff78ec&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000939-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141840469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel comparison framework for epidemiological strategies applied to age-based restrictions versus horizontal lockdowns","authors":"Vasiliki Bitsouni ,&nbsp;Nikolaos Gialelis ,&nbsp;Vasilis Tsilidis","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.07.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>During an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, policy-makers are faced with the decision of implementing effective, yet socioeconomically costly intervention strategies, such as school and workplace closure, physical distancing, etc. In this study, we propose a rigorous definition of epidemiological strategies. In addition, we develop a scheme for comparing certain epidemiological strategies, with the goal of providing policy-makers with a tool for their systematic comparison. Then, we put the suggested scheme to the test by employing an age-based epidemiological compartment model introduced in <span><span>Bitsouni et al. (2024)</span></span>, coupled with data from the literature, in order to compare the effectiveness of age-based and horizontal interventions. In general, our findings suggest that these two are comparable, mainly at a low or medium level of intensity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":"9 4","pages":"Pages 1301-1328"},"PeriodicalIF":8.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000915/pdfft?md5=086680771baf6f6a2247160b773ac01b&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000915-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142162010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}