Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target

IF 8.8 3区医学 Q1 Medicine

Infectious Disease Modelling Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2025.02.010

Wenjun Liu , Renjie Liu , Peng Li , Ruyi Xia , Zhuoru Zou , Lei Zhang , Mingwang Shen , Guihua Zhuang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether and how China can achieve this target despite significant intervention achievements. We aimed to predict the hepatitis B-related deaths in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target.

Methods

An age- and time-dependent dynamic hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission compartmental model was developed to predict the trend of hepatitis B-related deaths under base-case and subsequent scenarios from 2015 to 2040. In base-case scenario, we assumed the diagnosis and treatment (D&T) rate would reach 72% in 2030, as proposed by WHO. Subsequent scenarios were set based on the results of base-case and one-way sensitivity analysis.

Results

Compared with 2015, hepatitis B-related deaths would be reduced by 23.89% in 2030 and 51.79% in 2040, respectively, and the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction would not be achieved until 2038 at the earliest under base-case scenario. HBV clearance rate and current treatment effectiveness were the most sensitive parameters that significantly influenced the decline of hepatitis B-related deaths from 2015 to 2040. In the subsequent scenario, when D&T rate improving to 90% by 2030, with the current treatment effectiveness and HBV clearance rate being optimized from 2016, the WHO's impact target would be achieved in 2038. Increasing the clearance rate further from 2% to 2.8% during 2016–2030 linearly, the impact target would be achieved on time.

Conclusions

It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 even we assumed the D&T rate would reach 72% in 2030 and beyond. A comprehensive scale-up of available strategies, especially innovative drugs and technologies will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.

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来源期刊

Infectious Disease Modelling Mathematics-Applied Mathematics

CiteScore

17.00

自引率

3.40%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.