Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal最新文献

{"title":"Politics in the Facebook Era - Evidence from the 2016 US Presidential Elections","authors":"Federica Liberini, Michela Redoano, António Russo, �?ngel Cuevas, R. Cuevas","doi":"10.3929/ETHZ-B-000320222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000320222","url":null,"abstract":"Social media enable politicians to personalize their campaigns and target voters who may be decisive for the outcome of elections. We assess the effects of such political \"micro-targeting\" by exploiting variation in daily advertising prices on Facebook, collected during the course of the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. We analyze the variation of prices across political ideologies and propose a measure for the intensity of online political campaigns. Combining this measure with information from the ANES electoral survey, we address two fundamental questions: (i) To what extent did political campaigns use social media to micro-target voters? (ii) How large was the effect, if any, on voters who were heavily exposed to campaigning on social media? We find that online political campaigns targeted on users' gender, geographic location, and political ideology had a signi cant e ect in persuading undecided voters to support Mr Trump, and in persuading Republican supporters to turn out on polling day. Moreover the effect of micro-targeting on Facebook was strongest among users without university or college-level education.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128887291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Few Properties of Sample Variance","authors":"E. Benhamou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3247547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3247547","url":null,"abstract":"A basic result is that the sample variance for i.i.d. observations is an unbiased estimator of the variance of the underlying distribution (see for instance Casella and Berger (2002)). Another result is that the sample variance 's variance is minimum compared to any other unbiased estimators (see Halmos (1946)). But what happens if the observations are neither independent nor identically distributed. What can we say? Can we in particular compute explicitly the first two moments of the sample mean and hence generalize formulae provided in Tukey (1957a), Tukey (1957b) for the first two moments of the sample variance? We also know that the sample mean and variance are independent if they are computed on an i.i.d. normal distribution. This is one of the underlying assumption to derive the Student distribution Student alias W. S. Gosset (1908). But does this result hold for any other underlying distribution? Can we still have independent sample mean and variance if the distribution is not normal? This paper precisely answers these questions and extends previous work of Cho, Cho, and Eltinge (2004). We are able to derive a general formula for the first two moments and variance of the sample variance under no specific assumptions. We also provide a faster proof of a seminal result of Lukacs (1942) by using the log characteristic function of the unbiased sample variance estimator.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129141947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Partisan Conflict and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents","authors":"Milan W. Svolik","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3243470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3243470","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an explanation for the most prevalent form of democratic breakdown after the Cold War: the subversion of democracy by incumbents. In both democratization research and democracy promotion practice, the public is assumed to serve as a check on incumbents' temptations to subvert democracy. We explain why this check fails in polarized societies. When polarization is high, voters have a strong preference for their favorite candidate, which makes it costly for them to punish an incumbent by voting for a challenger. Incumbents exploit this lack of credible punishment by manipulating the democratic process in their favor. Our analysis of an original survey experiment conducted in Venezuela demonstrates that voters in polarized societies are indeed willing to trade off democratic principles for partisan interests and that their willingness to do so increases in the intensity of their partisanship. These findings suggest the need to re-evaluate conventional measures of support for democracy and provide an answer to a fundamental question about its survival: When can we expect the public to serve as a check on the authoritarian temptations of elected politicians?","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129099943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alternative Values-Based 'Recipes' for Life Satisfaction: German Results with an Australian Replication","authors":"B. Headey, Gert G. Wagner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3253477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3253477","url":null,"abstract":"In most research on Life Satisfaction (LS), it is assumed that the covariates of high and low LS are the same for everyone, or at least everyone in the West. In this paper, analysing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, with a limited replication based on Australian panel data, we estimate models of alternative ‘recipes’ for LS. There appear to be at least four distinct ‘recipes’, which are primarily based on the values of different population sub-sets. These values are: altruistic values, family values, materialistic values and religious values. By a ‘recipe’ for LS we mean a linked set of values, behavioural choices and domain satisfactions, which appear to be held together by a person’s values, and which prove to have substantial effects on LS. Our German and Australian evidence indicates that individuals who follow recipes based on altruistic, family or religious values record above average long term LS, whereas the materialistic values ‘recipe’ is associated with below average LS.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"301 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132132435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Individual Perception about the Difficulty in Accessing Government Services in China","authors":"Ling Xu, Xiyang Feng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3266602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3266602","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, the reform of administrative examination and approval system has greatly enhanced the quality and efficiency of public service in China. However, with the rapid increase of public demands, the public service reform has to transform from the physical reaction stage to the chemical integration phase. In other words, we must change the traditional reforming measures, such as setting up the unified service hall, improving serving attitude, simplifying the approval process, monitoring the approval efficiency, to the holistic government construction stage that sets up an integrated platform for multiple public services by using the information system. In this study, we conduct a public opinion survey in Guangzhou, and aim to figure out the factors that influence individual perception about the difficulty in accessing public services. Based on the development process of service reforms conducted by the Guangzhou government, we propose three key factors affecting individual perception about the difficulty in accessing public services, including government service quality, government service items, and government service methods. The results provide some support to our argument that the government service items and methods exert significant influence on individual perception about the difficulty in accessing public services. Based on our empirical result, we offer some policy suggestions for the local government.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"68 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134026592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Validating Self-Reported Turnout by Linking Public Opinion Surveys with Administrative Records","authors":"Ted Enamorado, K. Imai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3217884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3217884","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Although it is widely known that the self-reported turnout rates obtained from public opinion surveys tend to substantially overestimate actual turnout rates, scholars sharply disagree on what causes this bias. Some blame overreporting due to social desirability, whereas others attribute it to nonresponse bias and the accuracy of turnout validation. While we can validate self-reported turnout by directly linking surveys with administrative records, most existing studies rely on proprietary merging algorithms with little scientific transparency and report conflicting results. To shed light on this debate, we apply a probabilistic record linkage model, implemented via the open-source software package fastLink, to merge two major election studies—the American National Election Studies and the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey—with a national voter file of over 180 million records. For both studies, fastLink successfully produces validated turnout rates close to the actual turnout rates, leading to public-use validated turnout data for the two studies. Using these merged data sets, we find that the bias of self-reported turnout originates primarily from overreporting rather than nonresponse. Our findings suggest that those who are educated and interested in politics are more likely to overreport turnout. Finally, we show that fastLink performs as well as a proprietary algorithm.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122537204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Africa on the Maps of Global Values: Comparative Analyses, Based on Recent World Values Survey Data","authors":"Arno Tausch","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3214715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3214715","url":null,"abstract":"This paper attempts to close a gap in the recent literature on African economic development: the place of Africa on the maps of global economic, political and social values. We develop new comparable indices of global value development from the latest set of World Values Survey data and determine Africa’s place on a new factor analytical index of Global Civil Society. \u0000 \u0000Our statistical calculations were performed by the routine and standard SPSS statistical program (SPSS XXIV), available at many academic research centers around the world and relied on the so-called oblique rotation of the factors, underlying the correlation matrix. The SPSS routine chosen in this context was the so-called promax rotation of factors, which in many ways must be considered to be the best suited rotation of factors in the context of our research. \u0000 \u0000Our analysis of the World Values Survey data derived the following factor analytical scales, well compatible with a large social scientific literature: \u0000 \u00001. The non-violent and law-abiding society \u00002. Democracy movement \u00003. Climate of personal non-violence \u00004. Trust in institutions \u00005. Happiness, good health \u00006. No redistributive religious fundamentalism \u00007. Accepting the market \u00008. Feminism \u00009. Involvement in politics \u000010. Optimism and engagement \u000011. No welfare mentality, acceptancy of the Calvinist work ethics \u0000 \u0000The spread in the performance of African countries with complete data is really amazing. While we are especially hopeful about the development of future democracy in Ghana, our article suggests pessimistic tendencies for Egypt and Algeria, and especially for Africa’s leading economy, South Africa. High Human Inequality, as measured by the UNDP’s Human Development Report’s Index of Human Inequality, further impairs the development of Human Security. \u0000 \u0000One can maintain that the certain recent optimism, corresponding to economic and human rights data, emerging from Africa, is reflected also in our Index of the Development of Civil Society. There is at least some hope for Africa, on this front, too. \u0000  \u0000 \u0000JEL Classification Numbers: C43, F5, Z12, D73 \u0000 \u0000Keywords: C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation; F5 - International Relations \u0000and International Political Economy; Z12 – Religion; D73 - Bureaucracy; \u0000Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124635678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Lettuce Be Happy: The Effects of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption on Subjective Well-Being in the UK","authors":"Neel Ocean, P. Howley, J. Ensor","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3211798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3211798","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of better understanding ways to improve mental health, and subjective well-being more generally, is an issue that is gaining increased prominence among public health professionals in the Western world. Cognitive behavioural therapy and pharmaceutical treatments are the primary interventions used currently by public health practitioners to improve mental health and well-being. While the role of diet in influencing physical health is now well-established, some recent research suggests that diet could also play a role in improving subjective well-being. A limitation with much of this existing research is its reliance on cross-sectional correlations, convenience samples and/or lack of adequate controls. In this study, we present evidence using the UK Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) that subjective well-being responds in a dose-response fashion to increases in fruit and vegetable consumption. We take advantage of the longitudinal nature of the UKHLS by employing panel data analytical techniques (i.e. following the same individuals over time) and also controlling for time-variant confounders such as diet, health and lifestyle behaviours. Apart from being significant in a statistical sense, our estimates suggest that even modest increases in the consumption of fruit and vegetables could have comparable well-being effects to that of many big-hitting life events. Our findings, therefore, provide further evidence that persuading people to consume more fruits and vegetables may not only benefit their physical health in the long-run, but also their mental well-being in the short-run.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"65 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122807841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Not Enough to Win Another Lost Election: Malapportionment and Partisan Bias in Malaysia's 2013 and 2018 General Elections","authors":"Steven Oliver, Kai Ostwald","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3209653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3209653","url":null,"abstract":"Decades of dominant party rule in Malaysia unexpectedly ended when UMNO and its Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition lost the 2018 election despite extensive electoral manipulations, including new electoral boundaries designed to produce a BN victory in defiance of flagging popular support. We use Brookes’ method to estimate the partisan bias in electoral boundaries from the 2013 and 2018 elections, as well as to assess the relative contribution of malapportionment, gerrymandering, and manipulation of turnout to that bias. The evidence suggests the BN did receive a substantial advantage over the opposition in the translation of votes into seats, with malapportionment playing the dominant role. Ultimately, while the extreme malapportionment could not overcome the BN’s vote deficit, it has serious implications for the new era of Malaysian politics.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115166210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Motivated to Succeed? Attitudes to Education Among Native and Immigrant Pupils in England","authors":"S. Burgess, Gabriel Heller‐Sahlgren","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3217496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3217496","url":null,"abstract":"We study attitudes to education among English adolescents. Using PISA data, we show there is considerable variation in these attitudes depending on background: immigrant students have substantially and significantly more positive attitudes to school than native children, a difference that amounts to around 0.2 standard deviations. There is no difference between first- and second-generation immigrants, and the attitude gap does not appear to depend on particular schools' policies. We also show that students in London have more positive attitudes to education on average, but this is entirely accounted for by the distribution of children of immigrants in that city.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116172510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}