Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal最新文献

{"title":"An Inquiry into Southern Baptist and Evangelical Attitudes on Social Programs","authors":"Jonathan Giardina","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2968665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2968665","url":null,"abstract":"In 2006, journalist and former Republican strategist Kevin Phillips wrote, \"Evangelicals, Southern Baptist Convention adherents and others oppose government social and economic programs because they interfere with a person’s individual responsibility for his or her salvation.\" My paper investigates whether Southern Baptists and Evangelicals oppose welfare programs for religious reasons.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"70 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132271655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Building Decent Societies? Economic Situation and Political Cohesion after the Arab Uprisings","authors":"P. Abbott, A. Teti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2964552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2964552","url":null,"abstract":"The focus of this paper is the main drivers of the 2010-11 Arab Uprisings across the Arab and draws on data from the ArabTrans public opinion survey, as well as the Arab Barometer, the Gallup World Poll and World Development Indicators. It asks to what extent people think that things are getting better, whether post-2011 regimes are addressing the concerns of their people and delivering a way of life that people have reason to value. The analysis is illustrated by looking at three cases that are generally taken as epitomising relatively stable post-Uprising countries that have experienced different outcomes: Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt. Tunisia is democratizing, while there has been a counter revolution and the reestablishment of authoritarian rule in Egypt and autocratic consolidation in Egypt. People see the main drivers of the Uprisings as concerns about their economic situation and government corruption and they see these as the main challenges facing their countries. However, in 2011 they are relatively optimistic that things will get better but by 2014 if anything they think that the economic situation has got worse and that levels of corruption are remain high and that governments are not really making a concerted effort to tackle the problem. Only a small majority think that 2011 Uprisings were driven by people wanting political rights or that lack of political rights is one of the major challenges in 2011 or 2014. However, people do not trust their governments and are dissatisfied with their performance in office.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"27 10","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132118792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Worst Election Ever in Russia?","authors":"K. Kalinin, W. Mebane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2959824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2959824","url":null,"abstract":"Election forensics analysis shows extensive signs of extensive frauds in the Russian 2016 Duma election. The frequency and magnitude frauds are worse than in any Russian national election since 2000.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130206816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social Shaping of the Politics of Internet Search and Networking: Moving Beyond Filter Bubbles, Echo Chambers, and Fake News","authors":"W. Dutton, Bianca C. Reisdorf, Elizabeth Dubois, Grant Blank","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2944191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2944191","url":null,"abstract":"Global debate over the impact that algorithms and search on shaping political opinions has been increasing in the aftermath of controversial election results in Europe and the US. Powerful images of the Internet enabling access to a global treasure trove of information have shifted to worries over the degree to which those who use social media, and online tools such as search engines, are being fed inaccurate, fake, or politically-targeted information that could distort public opinion and political change. There are serious questions raised over the political implication of any biases embedded in the algorithms that drive search engines and social media. Do digital media biases shape access to information shaping public opinion? To address these issues, we conducted an online survey of stratified random samples in seven nations, including Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the US. We asked Internet users how they use search, social media, and other media, for political information, and what difference it makes for them. The findings cast doubt on technologically deterministic perspectives on search, such as filter bubbles. For example, our findings show that search is among an array of media consulted by those interested in politics. Internet users are not trapped in a bubble on a single platform. Another deterministic narrative is around the concept of echo chambers, where social media enable users to cocoon themselves with likeminded people and viewpoints. However, most of those interested in politics search for and double check problematic political information, and expose themselves to a variety of viewpoints. Thus, prevailing views on search and politics not only over-estimate technical determinants, but also underestimate the social shaping of the Internet, social media, and search. National media cultures and systems play an important role in shaping search practices, along with individual differences in political and Internet orientations. The findings suggest there are disproportionate levels of concern, often approaching panic, over the bias of search and social media, and that targeted interventions could help reduce the risks associated with fake news, filter bubbles, and echo chambers.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"613 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126892216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public Perceptions of Economic Changes: The Military, State Security, and Government Officials Turn out to Be Optimists","authors":"E. Avraamova, D. Loginov","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2944597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2944597","url":null,"abstract":"Individual differences in perceptions of the scale and duration of crisis phenomena are largely determined by the socio-professional status of a person and by his or her particular field of activity. The current economic situation is most negatively perceived by those engaged in industry and the construction sector, while members of the security or military services (the so-called “siloviki”) perceive it much more positively and than other categories of employees. Their assessments of the economy’s prospects are noticeably more optimistic than those voiced by the latter.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115245386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strikes, Employee Workplace Representation, Unionism, and Trust: Evidence from Cross-Country Data","authors":"J. Addison, Paulino Teixeira","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2923661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2923661","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the determinants of industrial conflict in companies, using a multi-country workplace inquiry for 2009 and 2013 and various measures of strike activity. The principal goal is to address the effect of formal workplace representation on strikes, distinguishing in the first instance between works councils on the one hand and broadly equivalent trade union based entities on the other. The role of unionism is also central to this inquiry, not only with respect to the degree to which workplace representation is union dominated but also and more familiarly perhaps through workplace union density and the level at which collective bargaining is conducted. Attention is also paid to the quality of industrial relations, as reflected in dissonance, namely divergent assessments of managers and employee workplace representatives as to the state of industrial relations. Although country effects do matter, it is reported that works councils are associated with reduced strike activity. However, any such effect is sensitive in particular to the union status of work councilors and time. There is also some indication that collective bargaining at levels higher than the company can exacerbate strike activity but this effect does not persist, possibly because of decentralization and the development of hybrid bargaining structures. For its part, good industrial relations appears key to strike reduction, independent of workplace representation.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"192 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131653782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Gender Differences in the Link between Income and Trust Levels: Evidence from Longitudinal Data","authors":"J. R. Bilson, Michael Jetter, Ingebjørg Kristoffersen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2923671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2923671","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the effect of individual income on interpersonal trust levels, using longitudinal survey data for 22,219 Australians over the 2005-2014 period. Our results produce two key insights. First, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for individual-level fixed effects, as the income coefficient goes from positive and statistically significant in a pooled regression to negative and statistically significant in a fixed effects panel model. Second, this negative effect of income on trust holds only for men, and not for women. This result appears to be concentrated among males who are young and moving from no income to positive income, but employment status is not the driving factor. Further, we explore a potential channel via psychological characteristics and find evidence of men reporting greater levels of neuroticism and fretfulness following an increase in income but, again, women do not. In turn, neuroticism and fretfulness are robust predictors of decreased trust levels; these additional findings are based on cross-sectional variation only, since both these variables are available in only one of the survey waves to date.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"13 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130408119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Surprising Was Trump's Victory? Notes on Predictions in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election","authors":"Fred A. Wright, A. Wright","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2900394","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2900394","url":null,"abstract":"The presidential election results of 2016 surprised many poll-watchers, suggesting possible biases in estimated support for the major party candidates and posing a challenge for poll aggregation as a prediction tool. Using data from earlier elections and the 2016 campaign, we conducted an evaluation of poll aggregation and state-level error in estimating the percentage spread between the two major candidates. We find that state-level estimates of the error magnitude for the FiveThirtyEight and Upshot models were approximately correct in 2016. However, a proportional bias that we term “prediction shrinkage,” due to non-major party preference during polling, had a large impact on state-level estimates. We suggest that prediction shrinkage may be largely avoided by using log-ratios of candidate preferences instead of percentage spread. We present a statistical rationale for simulation-based assessments of election probabilities, discussing aspects that may be understood by practitioners but not fully explicated in the literature. For 2016, we fit a smoothing mixed effects model that is sensitive to both national and state-specific trends and requires data from only a single election year. The model outperformed all the major prediction site estimates. Simulations of electoral college outcomes indicate that, on the eve of the election, the probability of a Trump victory was about 50%. The results do not support the contention that the poll averages were highly biased, but suggest that standard poll aggregation techniques were poorly equipped to respond to a late change in relative support for the candidates. We suggest that an increased emphasis on fundamental statistical tradeoffs of bias and variance, prior to focusing on poll adjustments or demographic behavior, may be the key to improved prediction.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"158 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132454898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How Does Wealth Impact Political Behavior? Evidence from a Government-sponsored Intervention","authors":"Connor Jerzak, Brian Libgober","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2780539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2780539","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses the introduction of E-ZPass in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in order to identify the effect of changing property values on support for US political parties. We show that E-ZPass caused a decline in support for Democratic Presidential candidates. We argue that this effect is not spurious, but rather due to the fact that precincts near E-ZPass toll locations experienced a downward shock to transportation cost and a corresponding rise in average home price. We rule out other explanations dealing with turnout, community change, or rising incomes, and replicate the design in Ohio. By conducting a sensitivity analysis, placebo test, and using multiple dependent variables, we demonstrate robustness.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"428 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122868878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Explaining Nationalist Political Views: The Case of Donald Trump","authors":"J. Rothwell, Pablo Diego-Rosell","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2822059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2822059","url":null,"abstract":"The 2016 US presidential nominee Donald Trump has broken with the policies of previous Republican Party presidents on trade, immigration, and war, in favor of a more nationalist and populist platform. Using detailed Gallup survey data for 125,000 American adults, we analyze the individual and geographic factors that predict a higher probability of viewing Trump favorably. The results show mixed evidence that economic distress has motivated Trump support. His supporters are less educated and more likely to work in blue collar occupations, but they earn relatively high household incomes and are no less likely to be unemployed or exposed to competition through trade or immigration. On the other hand, living in racially isolated communities with worse health outcomes, lower social mobility, less social capital, greater reliance on social security income and less reliance on capital income, predicts higher levels of Trump support. We confirm the theoretical results of our regression analysis using machine learning algorithms and an extensive set of additional variables.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131623761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}