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Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement 结合行政和调查数据改进收入计量
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/W25738
Bruce D. Meyer, N. Mittag
{"title":"Combining Administrative and Survey Data to Improve Income Measurement","authors":"Bruce D. Meyer, N. Mittag","doi":"10.3386/W25738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W25738","url":null,"abstract":"We describe methods of combining administrative and survey data to improve the measurement of income. We begin by decomposing the total survey error in the mean of survey reports of dollars received from a government transfer program. We decompose this error into three parts, generalized coverage error (which combines coverage and unit non-response error and any error from weighting), item non-response or imputation error, and measurement error. We then discuss these three sources of error in turn and how linked administrative and survey data can assess and reduce each of these sources. We then illustrate the potential of linked data by showing how using linked administrative variables improves the measurement of income and poverty in the Current Population Survey, focusing on the substitution of administrative for survey data for three government transfer programs. Finally, we discuss how one can examine the accuracy of the underlying links used in the combined data.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132724926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Правовая культура работников массовых профессий как фактор ослабления напряженности на рынке труда (Legal Culture of Workers of Mass Professions as a Factor in Easing Tension in the Labor Market)
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-03-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3362315
A. Pokida, N. Zybunovskaya
{"title":"Правовая культура работников массовых профессий как фактор ослабления напряженности на рынке труда (Legal Culture of Workers of Mass Professions as a Factor in Easing Tension in the Labor Market)","authors":"A. Pokida, N. Zybunovskaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3362315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3362315","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Russian Abstract:</b> В препринте представлены результаты социологического исследования, выполненного Научно-исследовательским центром социально-политического мониторинга Школы публичной политики и управления Института общественных наук РАНХиГС в 2018 году. Исследование посвящено изучению состояния правовой культуры граждан, представляющих различные социально-демографические и профессиональные группы. Результаты исследования представлены в сопоставлении с результатами социологических опросов, проведенных Центром в предыдущие годы по сопоставимой методике. Основные выводы, полученные по результатам социологического исследования, легли в основу рекомендаций для органов власти по формированию активной гражданской позиции, развитию правовой культуры российских граждан в сфере трудовых отношений, в том числе правовых знаний и навыков, способствующих налаживанию продуктивного диалога между субъектами социально-трудовых отношений.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> In a scientific report presents results of a study carried out by the Center of social and political monitoring of the School of Public Policy of RANEPA in 2018. The research is devoted to the study of the state of legal culture of citizens representing various socio-demographic and professional groups. The results of the study are presented in comparison with the results of sociological surveys conducted by the Center in previous years by a comparable method. The main conclusions of the sociological study formed the basis of recommendations for the authorities on the formation of active citizenship, the development of legal culture of Russian citizens in the field of labor relations, including legal knowledge and skills that contribute to the establishment of productive dialogue between the subjects of social and labor relations.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"B2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126833593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Party Positions Affect the Public's Policy Preferences? 政党立场会影响公众的政策偏好吗?
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-03-20 DOI: 10.5282/UBM/EPUB.61370
Elisabeth Grewenig, Philipp Lergetporer, Katharina Werner, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik
{"title":"Do Party Positions Affect the Public's Policy Preferences?","authors":"Elisabeth Grewenig, Philipp Lergetporer, Katharina Werner, Beata Smarzynska Javorcik","doi":"10.5282/UBM/EPUB.61370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5282/UBM/EPUB.61370","url":null,"abstract":"The standard assumption of exogenous policy preferences implies that parties set their positions according to their voters' preferences. We investigate the reverse effect: Are the electorates' policy preferences responsive to party positions? In a representative German survey, we inform randomized treatment groups about the positions of political parties on two family policies, child care subsidy and universal student aid. In both experiments, results show that the treatment aligns the preferences of specific partisan groups with their preferred party's position on the policy under consideration, implying endogeneity of policy preferences. The information treatment also affects non-partisan swing voters.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123642391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Grapes of Path Dependence: The Long-Run Political Impact of the Dust Bowl Migration 路径依赖的葡萄:沙尘暴迁移的长期政治影响
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-02-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3258402
Adam J. Ramey
{"title":"The Grapes of Path Dependence: The Long-Run Political Impact of the Dust Bowl Migration","authors":"Adam J. Ramey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3258402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3258402","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we show that the migrations of millions of Okies from the central plains to California has a demonstrable effect on political outcomes to this day, even after accounting for other relevant geographic and demographic factors. After demonstrating this pattern at the electoral level, we leverage a decade's worth of survey data and show that Hispanics living in areas with large Okie migrations in the 1930s are much more likely to have conservative social values and, importantly, to vote and identify as Republicans. Put together, these results suggest that the historical legacies of migration can have a strong and sustained impact even after nearly a century after the fact.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128611864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties: The Role of Policy Inertia and Prospective Voting 政党在任劣势:政策惯性与前瞻性投票的作用
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.07
Satyajit Chatterjee, Burcu Eyigungor
{"title":"Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties: The Role of Policy Inertia and Prospective Voting","authors":"Satyajit Chatterjee, Burcu Eyigungor","doi":"10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2019.07","url":null,"abstract":"We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of ?incumbency disadvantage\": If a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. To explain this fact, we employ Alesina and Tabellini's (1990) model of partisan politics, extended to have elections with prospective voting. We show that inertia in policies, combined with sufficient uncertainty in election outcomes, implies incumbency disadvantage. We find that inertia can cause parties to target policies that are more extreme than the policies they would support in the absence of inertia and that such extremism can be welfare reducing.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"21 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115117383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan 不丹王国的国民幸福总值和宏观经济指标
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484389713.001.A001
S. Balasubramanian, P. Cashin
{"title":"Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan","authors":"S. Balasubramanian, P. Cashin","doi":"10.5089/9781484389713.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484389713.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the origins and use of the concept of Gross National Happiness (or subjective well-being) in the Kingdom of Bhutan, and the relationship between measured well-being and macroeconomic indicators. While there are only a few national surveys of Gross National Happiness in Bhutan, the concept has been used to guide public policymaking for the country’s various Five-Year Plans. Consistent with the Easterlin Paradox, available evidence indicates that Bhutan’s rapid increase in national income is only weakly associated with increases in measured levels of well-being. It will be important for Bhutan to undertake more frequent Gross National Happiness surveys and evaluations, to better build evidence for comovement of well-being and macroeconomic concepts such as real national income.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"122 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122035041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Estimating Latent Traits from Expert Surveys: An Analysis of Sensitivity to Data Generating Process 从专家调查中估计潜在特征:对数据生成过程的敏感性分析
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3302459
Kyle L. Marquardt, Daniel Pemstein
{"title":"Estimating Latent Traits from Expert Surveys: An Analysis of Sensitivity to Data Generating Process","authors":"Kyle L. Marquardt, Daniel Pemstein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3302459","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3302459","url":null,"abstract":"Models for converting expert-coded data to point estimates of latent concepts assume different data-generating processes. In this paper, we simulate ecologically-valid data according to different assumptions, and examine the degree to which common methods for aggregating expert-coded data can recover true values and construct appropriate coverage intervals from these data. We find that hierarchical latent variable models and the bootstrapped mean perform similarly when variation in reliability and scale perception is low; latent variable techniques outperform the mean when variation is high. Hierarchical A-M and IRT models generally perform similarly, though IRT models are often more likely to include true values within their coverage intervals. The median and non-hierarchical latent variable modeling techniques perform poorly under most assumed data generating processes.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"402 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132208718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Voting Power and the Public Good Index: Thoughts 投票权与公共利益指数:思考
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2018-11-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3284391
Matthias Weber
{"title":"Voting Power and the Public Good Index: Thoughts","authors":"Matthias Weber","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3284391","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3284391","url":null,"abstract":"Among the wide variety of voting power indices, the public good index (PGI) is one of the less well-known ones. Holler (forthcoming) posits hypotheses about why this is the case. In response to these hypotheses, I share a few thoughts about voting power in general and about the popularity of the PGI.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132524248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Method for Election Forecasting 一种选举预测方法
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2018-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3275872
Christopher A. D. Charles, G. Reid, N. Albarus
{"title":"A Method for Election Forecasting","authors":"Christopher A. D. Charles, G. Reid, N. Albarus","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3275872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275872","url":null,"abstract":"The CHAMPSKNOW system was used to predict the 2016 Jamaican General Election. The questions asked were: what were the probabilities of the JLP or the PNP winning the election? Would the election be close? How many seats would each party receive? Integrated or mixed methods were used with quantitative and qualitative data. These data were macro-economic and demographic indicators (1962-2015) and regression was done to identify the significant predictors of party in power; general election results (1962-2011) were used to calculate the vote share and frequency of wins and seat type; type of CDF disbursements (2008-2015) and a regression was done to determine the significant predictors of MP victory; published polls (1962-2016) were used to identify the most accurate poll to guide the forecast; independent voter survey in marginal seats was used with vote share, frequency of wins and seat type to determine seat count; newspaper stories about the election were coded as positive and negative stories about the parties; the parties’ audio-visual ads were coded as positive, negative and contrasts ads. The final forecast gave the PNP a 55% chance of winning (with 35 seats) and the JLP a 45% chance (with 28 seats), a close election. The JLP won with 49.5 % of the popular vote (31 seats) to the PNP’s 49.1% (30 seats) because of the promised tax break. This wildcard was not assessed since voters tend to ignore campaign promises because they were usually unfulfilled.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128828664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Where's the Winning? 胜利在哪里?
Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal Pub Date : 2018-10-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3267509
Anthony W. Orlando
{"title":"Where's the Winning?","authors":"Anthony W. Orlando","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3267509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3267509","url":null,"abstract":"Donald Trump premised his successful campaign for the United States presidency on a pledge that his supporters would \"start winning again.\" This paper evaluates the extent to which this promise became a reality for those voters. By comparing votes at the county level, I show that Trump support is not associated with any significant relative improvement in either employment or housing prices. In fact, counties that voted for Hillary Clinton have performed significantly better in the housing market, even after controlling for previous differences in prices and growth rates. There is simply no evidence of superior economic performance in the regions that had fallen behind under previous presidencies.","PeriodicalId":365899,"journal":{"name":"Political Behavior: Voting & Public Opinion eJournal","volume":"276 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123445229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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