Journal of Hydrology最新文献

{"title":"Analysis of the impact of ambient groundwater flow on the aquifer thermal energy storage systems","authors":"Zehao Chen ,&nbsp;Junyuan Zhang ,&nbsp;Hongbin Zhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heating and cooling significantly contribute to the world’s total energy consumption, and this demand is steadily rising due to population growth and the impact of climate change. Among various renewable energy technologies, aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) stands out for its efficient energy utilization, ability to reduce CO₂ emissions, and significant energy storage capacity. The question of whether the effect of ambient groundwater flow (AGF) on the recovery efficiency of ATES can be ignored has been a long-standing debate, as recovery efficiency serves as an indicator of how much of the injected thermal energy can be retrieved from the aquifer. This paper aims to construct numerical models using COMSOL Multiphysics to determine under what conditions AGF can be disregarded for the ATES systems. The results show the following: 1) The injection rate of ATES is positively correlated with the recovery efficiency, while aquifer thickness is negatively correlated with the recovery efficiency. 2) A higher AGF velocity results in a lower recovery efficiency. 3) There is a linear correlation between the AGF velocity and the radial flow velocity (generated by the thermal operational well) at the thermal operational wellbore surface, suggesting a specific threshold beyond which the influence of AGF on recovery efficiency cannot be ignored. This research has important implications for providing recommendations for the application of ATES and exploring the potential for expanding renewable energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133140"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupled hydrologic, hydraulic, and surface water quality models for pollution management in urban–rural areas","authors":"Matteo Masi ,&nbsp;Daniele Masseroni ,&nbsp;Fabio Castelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban expansion and increasing frequency of extreme events threaten both urban drainage and receiving waterbody water quality. Combined sewer systems are particularly vulnerable, as they mix wastewater and stormwater, making them susceptible to reduced drainage efficiency and potential release of pollutants. Nature-based solutions, such as constructed wetlands, offer an effective means of pollution mitigation by providing sustainable and cost-efficient methods for enhancing water quality and reducing pollution in urban environments. This study presents a numerical modelling framework to simulate the impact of pollution and to design effective remediation strategies in mixed urban–rural networks subjected to storm events. The model consists of three main modules integrating hydrological, hydrodynamic, and reactive transport components to simulate the water and pollutants dynamics. The first module simulates runoff based on a distributed hydrological model and propagation within the canal network. A reactive transport module simulates advective–dispersive transport and biochemical reactions of pollutants. A third module evaluates the effectiveness of horizontal flow constructed wetlands for pollution mitigation. The model is applied to a suburban area near Milan, Italy, where sewer overflows enter a network of irrigation canals. The results demonstrate that the model was effective in identifying a suitable location for implementing a constructed wetland and in determining its proper size to achieve improved water quality. According to the simulations, the designed treatment system can achieve a contamination reduction of up to 23% for ammonium, 84% for nitrates, and 85% for carbonaceous BOD.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133172"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A visualizable deep learning model for multiscale precipitation-driven karst spring discharge","authors":"Huiqing Hao ,&nbsp;Yonghong Hao ,&nbsp;Chunmei Ma ,&nbsp;Limin Duan ,&nbsp;Xiping Yan ,&nbsp;Qi Wang ,&nbsp;Yan Liu ,&nbsp;Wenrui Zhang ,&nbsp;Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Groundwater from karst aquifers provides drinking water for 25% of the world’s population. However, the complexity of karst terrain and karst aquifer heterogeneity hinders comprehensively understanding and predicting karst hydrological processes. This study proposes a deep learning model coupling a multiscale transformer (TSF) with a direction-constrained graph neural network (GNN) for forecasting karst spring discharge. The TSF deciphers the time-dependent patterns between precipitation and spring discharge, while the directed GNN tracks surface water convergence and the groundwater diffusion.</div><div>Applying the model to Shentou Spring in northern China, we discover that visualization of attention weights in the TSF can reveal the multiscale temporal dependence of spring discharge on precipitation through successive transmission over a 12-month lead time, while the memory effect of transmitted information decays over time. Moreover, we find that the intra-patch attention weights at annual and seasonal scales follow normal distributions. The variability of spring discharge is most profound on an annual scale in the year’s first half. At the seasonal scale, the variability of spring discharge driven by precipitation is the most significant in the summer and the slightest in the winter. On the other hand, visualization of edge weights in the directed GNN highlights the spatial dependence of spring discharge, depicting surface water convergence and groundwater diffusion. In addition, the groundwater flow field-based graph enables the GNN to yield the best predictive performance compared to the complete and information flow graph.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133168"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Finding a parsimonious suspended sediment transport model structure","authors":"Laxmipriya Mohanty ,&nbsp;Asif Qureshi ,&nbsp;Basudev Biswal","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prediction of sediment load in rivers is crucial for addressing several theoretical and practical problems. While purely mechanistic models of sediment load transport suffer from the limitation of being impractical for application due to constraints in finding adequate field data, as well as computational resources, purely data-based models are not fully reliable due to fitting and interpretability issues. Conceptual approaches provide a middle ground to develop models that capture the best of the two above approaches — incorporating key physical processes while exploiting empirical observations. This study adopts the unit sediment graph method, which decouples sediment generation and sediment routing, akin to the unit hydrograph method which decouples runoff generation and runoff routing. <span><span>Banasik and Walling (1996)</span></span> expressed effective sediment <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>E</mi><mi>S</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span>, the amount of sediment that ultimately exits in the catchment, as a general function of precipitation (<span><math><mi>R</mi></math></span>) as well as effective precipitation (<span><math><mrow><mi>ER</mi></mrow></math></span>): <span><math><mrow><mi>ES</mi><mo>=</mo><mi>X</mi><mo>∙</mo><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mi>m</mi></msup><mo>∙</mo><msup><mrow><mi>ER</mi><mo>(</mo><mi>t</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mi>n</mi></msup></mrow></math></span>. For the sake of simplification, either <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span> or <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> can be assumed to be zero, giving us two derivative models. In this study, we assume that both <span><math><mi>m</mi></math></span> and <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> are equal to 1, leaving only <span><math><mi>X</mi></math></span> free for calibration. Sediment routing is performed using the sediment rating curve as well as by directly routing effective sediment with two parallel linear reservoirs. Effective rainfall and discharge are estimated with the HBV hydrological model. We tested the eight generation-routing model combinations considering daily sediment load data from USGS and precipitation data from NOAA for 18 catchments. The proposed sediment generation model in combination with the direct routing type appears to be the most reliable, with a median NSE and R² equal to 0.47 and 0.63 respectively. The results here support the idea that basin-scale sediment load prediction can be performed with a simple, parsimonious model applicable to a wide variety of geographical regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133143"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pore-scale observations of CO2 thermodynamic properties and dissolution trapping in porous media","authors":"Shaohua Li,&nbsp;Xin Wang,&nbsp;Lanlan Jiang,&nbsp;Yongchen Song","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon geological storage (CGS) presents a promising approach to mitigate climate change. Partially free CO₂ is trapped in tiny pores and gradually dissolves into formation fluid. However, thermodynamic properties of CO₂ remain inadequately understood, which strongly influence activation possibility of these free CO₂. In this study, we innovatively mapped CO₂ evolution and redistribution at micro scale by using X-ray CT. CO₂ growth or shrinkage was determined by the threshold equal to pore volume. Bellow the threshold, bubbles experienced thermodynamically unstable shrink, following a power-law distribution in its specific interfacial area. Otherwise, bubble growth was governed by diffusion between gas and liquid phases, unlike conversely bubble coalescence. Larger bubbles expand at the expense of smaller ones through Ostwald ripening. The surface energy of CO₂ bubbles during Ostwald ripening in porous media was firstly quantified. The whole system tended to reduce surface energy and larger bubbles have lower surface energy. In additional, high curvature interfaces prefer to rupture and growth. It was also found that CO₂ bubble disappears in about 5.87 h at laboratory scales, which was 23.79 times greater than that estimated by the traditional LSW equation. This longer period allowed CO₂ to redistribute within porous media, diminishing solubility and mineral trapping efficiency, thereby increasing the risk of long-term storage leakage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133118"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Key geochemical processes in typical magmatic hydrothermal systems explaining REE patterns in the neutral boiling springs","authors":"Xiaobo Zhang,&nbsp;Qinghai Guo,&nbsp;Xin Li,&nbsp;Anping Luo,&nbsp;Feng Hu,&nbsp;Mengzhao Zhang,&nbsp;Weihao Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The mobility and fractionation of REE in hydrothermal system have been studied by a number of researchers. A major effort has been made in this study to investigate the genesis of REE in the parent geothermal liquid-fed (PGL-fed) neutral boiling springs. The Daggyai and Rehai are two typical magmatic hydrothermal systems in which several representative PGL-fed boiling springs have been collected. PHREEQC V3.0 with self-constructed database was used to calculate the aqueous REE species in the PGL and construct models to study the impacts of pH, temperature, and Fe/Mn (hydr)oxides on the distribution of REE. Simulation results showed that NdCl²⁺, NdF²⁺, NdSO₄⁺, Nd³⁺, NdCl₂⁺, and NdOH²⁺ are dominant species under strong acid condition. Solid REE oxides start to precipitate at pH of higher than 2.9, meanwhile, the content of all the REE species decrease rapidly to lower than 1 ppb. The impact of temperature on REE fractionation in PGL-fed boiling springs was analyzed under a nearly neutral pH condition (fixed at pH 6.3). The simulation results showed that high temperature (over 200℃) favors the REE hydroxyl over the other species; however, REE fluorides are dominant followed by REE free ions, carbonates, and sulfates at temperature lower than 150℃. The presence of Fe/Mn (hydr)oxides can change the distribution of REE in geothermal fluids due to its strong affinity to dissolved REE species. The result given by a simplified 1-D model showed that after interaction of 150 aliquots of PGL, the REE_N patterns have a strong trend of depletion of LREE; as this simulation continues until 6000 aliquots have passed, the REE_N patterns tend to be flat especially at temperature of 100℃. This can help to explain the differences of REE_N patterns in Daggyai and Rehai geothermal fields that the relatively flat REE_N patterns in Rehai is probably because the presence of hydrothermal alteration minerals such as pyrite, rhodochrosite, kaolinite and illite-montmorillonite interstratified clays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133147"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143683129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Forecasting compound drought-heatwaves using Burg entropy spectral analysis with multi-frequency resolutions","authors":"Jeongwoo Han ,&nbsp;Vijay P. Singh ,&nbsp;Hyun-Han Kwon ,&nbsp;Tae-Woong Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133166","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133166","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the significant impacts of compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events, which are projected to increase in frequency under global warming, establishing a proactive management plan for CDHW events is highlighted in this study. However, studies on forecasting CDHWs have been limited, with most done on a monthly scale. Since heatwaves evolve at a short time scale of less than a week, monitoring and forecasting at sub-monthly scales can provide important information. Thus, this study developed a standardized compound drought-heatwave index (SCDHI) at a 7-day time scale (SCDHI-7D) for South Korea by coupling the standardized antecedent precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and the standardized temperature index (STI) using the copula method. The developed SCDHI-7D effectively monitored CDHW events that occurred in South Korea. To forecast SCDHI-7D, Burg entropy spectral analysis (BESA) with maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT), referred to as BESA, was developed. BESA showed good forecasting accuracy, with a median Kling-Gupta efficiency (<em>KGE</em>) value greater than 0.79 up to a 24-day lead time. Besides, BESA forecasted CDHW events effectively, with a hit rate greater than 75 % and a false positive less than 11.52 % up to a 24-day lead time. BESA also maintained good forecasting accuracy for extended lead times longer than 3 weeks. Under the same training conditions, BESA outperformed the Long short-term memory (LSTM), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and XGBoost models that were considered benchmark models. This study could be useful for providing accurate early warning information to establish a proactive management plan for CDHW events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133166"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using values-informed mental models to understand farmer, water manager, and scientist use and perceptions of hydrologic models","authors":"Nouman Afzal ,&nbsp;Logan J. Swenson ,&nbsp;Sam Zipper ,&nbsp;Adam Zwickle ,&nbsp;Chloe B. Wardropper","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Decision-support systems using environmental data and models are increasingly common, but not always adopted by the intended end-users. This disconnect may be partly due to different values related to nature and the scientific process. In this study, we assessed whether and to what extent real-world water decisions, supported by groundwater flow models, are influenced by epistemic values (scientific values including testability and usability) and nature values. We conducted and analyzed semi-structured interviews of ten water managers, five hydrologic model developers, and seven agricultural producers within a Groundwater Management District in south-central Kansas overlying part of the US High Plains aquifer. We then constructed values-informed mental models related to each group’s decisions. The epistemic value for accuracy was the most important value influencing water management decisions, especially short-term operational and long-term planning decisions. Stewardship was the second most important value influencing water management decisions, especially decisions related to conservation. Participants from all three stakeholder groups mentioned most values in interviews, but model developers mentioned accuracy, methodological soundness and testability significantly more often than agricultural producers and water managers. Our results highlight differences—and commonalities—in how decision-support systems influence decisions across types of users, as well as the importance of acknowledging the role individual values play in environmental policy decisions. Incorporating these insights into modeling processes and communications can help hydrologic modelers and data producers better align their work with the decision needs of end-users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133171"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"3D numerical modelling of flow exchanges between flooded streets and residential blocks during urban flooding in an idealized district","authors":"Xuefang Li ,&nbsp;Shuyue Yu ,&nbsp;Vasileios Kitsikoudis ,&nbsp;Guilhem Dellinger ,&nbsp;Lihua Chen ,&nbsp;Sébastien Erpicum ,&nbsp;Léo Guiot ,&nbsp;Chengguang Lai ,&nbsp;Benjamin Dewals","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings through broken doors and windows can have a significant impact on the flow characteristics and the flood hazard in urban floods. Traditionally, urban floods are modelled with 2D shallow-water equations, however, this modelling approach is not always capable to reproduce such complicated flow exchanges. This study aims to investigate the added value of 3D non-hydrostatic numerical modelling over the modelling with 2D shallow-water equations for the accurate prediction of flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings. Systematic comparisons were carried out between the results of 2D depth-averaged and 3D numerical modelling against laboratory observations for eight configurations of an urban block surrounded by flooded streets. Each urban block configuration had a different number and locations of openings in the block perimeter. The 3D model predicted the flow discharge partition at the street outlets more accurately than the 2D model, with an average RMSE of about 1 percentage point compared to the measurements. The flow in the interior of the urban block was typically characterized by large recirculation zones, which were successfully reproduced by the 3D model in terms of number, locations and directionality of recirculating flow, with only limited discrepancies in the sizes and shapes for some cases. The superiority of the 3D model over the 2D was particularly evident in the case where the streets meet a large open space. In addition, 3D models perform better than 2D models in cases with high vertical velocities. The vertical velocities are prominent in areas where flow jets and flow contractions are observed near the openings of the urban blocks, and can reach values up to 20% of the total depth-averaged velocities. The vertical variation of the flow pattern is rather limited from the bottom to the surface, but the difference between the magnitude of the surface velocity and the corresponding depth-averaged velocity reaches 50% in areas of complex flow patterns near the openings of the urban block. From an engineering perspective, this study informs practitioners when to opt for the more demanding 3D modelling instead of the traditional modelling with 2D shallow-water equations in the context of flow exchanges between flooded streets and the interior of buildings during urban floods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"658 ","pages":"Article 133150"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Detection and attribution of human influence on seasonal extreme precipitation in northern Hemisphere","authors":"Jin Zhao ,&nbsp;Kai Ernn Gan ,&nbsp;Shuyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Gengxi Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuezhi Tan ,&nbsp;Hengnian Yan ,&nbsp;Thian Yew Gan","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fingerprinting analysis have detected the impact of human activities on annual precipitation extremes. Using simulations of selected climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study has comprehensively demonstrated human influence on seasonal precipitation extremes of Northern Hemisphere Land (NHL) over different spatial scales from 1950 to 2014. By assessing the impacts of various climatic forcings on the maximum 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation indices, our results show that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings predominantly drive the increase in observed Rx1day across most of the NHL in all four seasons, with more pronounced effects in fall and winter than in spring and summer. Furthermore, low-risk regions tend to experience greater GHG-induced Rx1day than high-risk regions in all seasons. Anthropogenic aerosol (AER) forcings significantly weaken Rx1day, particularly during winter in regions like India and southern China. Change point analysis reveals a rapid increase in Rx1day under GHG forcings and a slower decrease under AER forcing since the 1980s. However, the abrupt change in Rx1day under both anthropogenic and natural external (ALL) forcings generally began a decade later, around the 1990s. Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, we demonstrate for the first time that discernible anthropogenic forcings (ANT) impact at least one season in over 80% of CMIP6 subregions, with more than 60% of the contributions being attributable to ANT forcings. The number of subregions with detected ANT forcings is twice as high in winter compared to summer. Although seasonal natural (NAT) forcings are undetectable in one-signal analysis, they are detected in similar regions in both two- and three-signal analysis, suggesting that observed changes should be attributed to both anthropogenic and natural forcings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":"657 ","pages":"Article 133133"},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143716317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}